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Post by Deleted on Aug 26, 2023 4:51:26 GMT -5
Discuss:
Would make a great option depending on price.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 26, 2023 7:48:19 GMT -5
I like the idea of Yamamoto. Only 25, peripherals that are the best out of the NPB since Mastuzaka. Of course, Daisuke never lived up to the hype, and Yamamoto might not either. But I’d expect bidding to be hot for this kid and at least his age and skillset suggest he’d be one helluva fine pickup for our Cubs.
Personally I believe there is tremendous value in continuing to tap into the Japanese market, establishing Chicago as a premier landing spot for their marquee talents. Yamamoto would be a great pickup.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 26, 2023 9:08:07 GMT -5
Hers what MLB trade rumors as to say about their #3 overall free agent and top pitcher free agent available this winter: www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/08/2023-24-mlb-free-agent-power-rankings-august-edition.html“At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year. If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since. Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well. Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee. Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.“
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2023 1:56:04 GMT -5
With Urias facing potentially big legal issues and Ohtani headed for TJS, Yamamoto becomes the number 1 target for many teams.
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Post by Mike on Sept 5, 2023 5:16:40 GMT -5
21.00 Stroman - opt in... I think this dictates whether we go after a starting arm. 16.00 Hendricks - club option ARB 1 Steele (L) Assad Wicks (L) 18.00 Taillon 08.50 Smyly (L) --------- Wesneski Kilian Brown
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 7:52:40 GMT -5
21.00 Stroman - opt in... I think this dictates whether we go after a starting arm. 16.00 Hendricks - club option ARB 1 Steele (L) Assad Wicks (L) 18.00 Taillon 08.50 Smyly (L) --------- Wesneski Kilian Brown Add Horton in the lower group. Good chance with the season he's had he starts 2024 in AAA , if not unless things fall apart he's there within a month or two and is with the Cubs at some point next season and could be there as early as mid season. So it might be go all in on Yamamoto or just don't add anybody to the rotation and make sure you get Belli signed. Why bother with the others when there is the legit potential to have Wicks, Brown and Horton all ready to join the veteran arms with Assad as a safety net.
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Post by fine09 on Sept 5, 2023 8:43:12 GMT -5
21.00 Stroman - opt in... I think this dictates whether we go after a starting arm. 16.00 Hendricks - club option ARB 1 Steele (L) Assad Wicks (L) 18.00 Taillon 08.50 Smyly (L) --------- Wesneski Kilian Brown Add Horton in the lower group. Good chance with the season he's had he starts 2024 in AAA , if not unless things fall apart he's there within a month or two and is with the Cubs at some point next season and could be there as early as mid season. So it might be go all in on Yamamoto or just don't add anybody to the rotation and make sure you get Belli signed. Why bother with the others when there is the legit potential to have Wicks, Brown and Horton all ready to join the veteran arms with Assad as a safety net. There are just too many moving parts to know what direction they will go starting with Stroman's decision & that won't be answered until he has a start with the Cubs in the next couple of weeks. If he is decent to good in his next couple outings then he will opt out because he will have numerous clubs willing to give him a 2 to 4 year deal right around that 20 mil figure. Next we move on to the Hendricks decision which I am very much in favor of keeping him at the 14-1/2 million dollar cost for 2024 (16 mil. minus the 1.5 mil. buyout). When healthy (now) he is still a #3 starter on most every team in MLB.. We have Smyly who is on the books for 8.5 mil. for next year & not pitching very well but just maybe he can be valuable as an expensive BP guy or a long man. Taillon who is pitching well overall but seems to always have those 2 really bad pitches that cost him a couple of Hr's every game & he's here for the next 3 years at 16 mil. per year. I believe he is a guy that they can work with to become a 4/5 starter on a very good team although he will be expensive in that role. The young guys in Steele, Assad, Wicks should easily have a spot in the rotation & eventually Horton should be up with the team next year. The others can be very good BP guys & an injury replacement when a front line starter goes down. If Stro opts out & they sign Hendricks I just don't see room for Yamamoto & if Stro opts in that seems impossible to have room for him so I don't see the Cubs a real possibility of a destination.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Sept 5, 2023 9:19:28 GMT -5
There are a lot of big spenders on that list of teams who scouted Yamamoto. I won't get my hopes too high.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 9:25:29 GMT -5
Add Horton in the lower group. Good chance with the season he's had he starts 2024 in AAA , if not unless things fall apart he's there within a month or two and is with the Cubs at some point next season and could be there as early as mid season. So it might be go all in on Yamamoto or just don't add anybody to the rotation and make sure you get Belli signed. Why bother with the others when there is the legit potential to have Wicks, Brown and Horton all ready to join the veteran arms with Assad as a safety net. There are just too many moving parts to know what direction they will go starting with Stroman's decision & that won't be answered until he has a start with the Cubs in the next couple of weeks. If he is decent to good in his next couple outings then he will opt out because he will have numerous clubs willing to give him a 2 to 4 year deal right around that 20 mil figure. Next we move on to the Hendricks decision which I am very much in favor of keeping him at the 14-1/2 million dollar cost for 2024 (16 mil. minus the 1.5 mil. buyout). When healthy (now) he is still a #3 starter on most every team in MLB.. We have Smyly who is on the books for 8.5 mil. for next year & not pitching very well but just maybe he can be valuable as an expensive BP guy or a long man. Taillon who is pitching well overall but seems to always have those 2 really bad pitches that cost him a couple of Hr's every game & he's here for the next 3 years at 16 mil. per year. I believe he is a guy that they can work with to become a 4/5 starter on a very good team although he will be expensive in that role. The young guys in Steele, Assad, Wicks should easily have a spot in the rotation & eventually Horton should be up with the team next year. The others can be very good BP guys & an injury replacement when a front line starter goes down. If Stro opts out & they sign Hendricks I just don't see room for Yamamoto & if Stro opts in that seems impossible to have room for him so I don't see the Cubs a real possibility of a destination. Sorry , but you make room for Yamamoto if you think you have a legit chance to sign him and are ok with committing what it would take. NO WAY in hell am I passing on him because of Kyle Hendricks. I love what Kyle's done for the Cubs in his career and he's had a nice bounce back season when I thought he might be done ( glad to be wrong about that) but realistically with alll the young arms I don't see him being among the best 5-6 rotation candidates moving forward and I can't see Smyly being used as a starter anymore. Taillon is not going anywhere so we have to hope they can figure out the problem , so they are stuck with him as the veteran for the rotation. Stroman probably does opt out if he feels and looks healthy if he can get in a couple starts to show teams that, but you never know. Even with taking a pass on Yamamoto and Stroman leaving and Smyly certainly no longer in the rotation I'm probably not picking up Hendricks option unless they rip that up and cut the AAV way down and make it a 2 year deal at no more than 8-10 per year. Yes they have a decent amount coming off the books , but when you can pay a rotation spot like Wicks, Horton, Brown, Assad, Wesneski league minimum you have to look at cost somewhere and is Kyle going to give them another productive 1-2 years to the point he's worth paying the difference it would be to have one of them instead of him ? Steele Taillon Wicks Horton Assad/Brown/Wesneski/Kilian
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Post by TheChico on Sept 5, 2023 10:52:29 GMT -5
Cubs are 10 games above .500 and will be a "ALL IN" team in 2024, so that means going over the luxury tax is an option they likely use, so with that in mind with Stroman, the FO would love nothing more than him opting in on the 3rd year of his deal, which will be a 1/$23 million, that is excellent value and his contract just falls off the books after the end of the 2024 but the odds say especially with Urias likely done in the majors, Stroman will opt out especially if he comes back as his old self which is likely and good chance the Cubs move on due to their depth.
With Hendricks, he will be back, I do think they decline his option and work on a 2 year deal with with more guaranteed money in exchange for a lower AAV. Something in the line of a 2/18 type deal. In any case I don't see Hendricks pitching for another team in 2024, because he is a guy you want your young pitchers to learn from and still a solid backend starter who is a legend in Chicago.
Now if they keep both Hendricks and Stroman, you still have room to sign Yamamoto which he will likely get around 5/100, and as we know there is no such thing as to much pitching and if your goal is to try to win a World series in 2024, having a shitload of options is a must over a long season and the Cubs have the payroll room especially if they abandoned the Ohtani sweepstakes and push for the Bellinger/Yamamoto combo instead. So I am not to concerned about their payroll situation if Stroman opts. in and it is a dream scenario the Cubs would love to have.
Possible 2024 rotation if Stroman opts in
Steele Stroman Yamamoto Taillon Hendricks/Assad
depth
Wicks Assman/Taillon Brown Horton Smyly Wesneski Killian
Rotation if Stroman opts out:
Steele Yamamoto Assad Taillon Hendricks
Cubs rotation options will be deep no matter what and pretty sure I forgot a guy too and if injuries to happen which they will, you got a guys who can just step right in and take over and not lose a beat. I know this likely pushes Wicks to AAA but this is a nice luxury to have but he will get plenty of starts in the majors in 2024 but you don't have to depend on him being key part of the rotation which takes the pressure off of him and gives the Cubs a bigger margin for error.
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Post by fine09 on Sept 5, 2023 11:12:56 GMT -5
There are just too many moving parts to know what direction they will go starting with Stroman's decision & that won't be answered until he has a start with the Cubs in the next couple of weeks. If he is decent to good in his next couple outings then he will opt out because he will have numerous clubs willing to give him a 2 to 4 year deal right around that 20 mil figure. Next we move on to the Hendricks decision which I am very much in favor of keeping him at the 14-1/2 million dollar cost for 2024 (16 mil. minus the 1.5 mil. buyout). When healthy (now) he is still a #3 starter on most every team in MLB.. We have Smyly who is on the books for 8.5 mil. for next year & not pitching very well but just maybe he can be valuable as an expensive BP guy or a long man. Taillon who is pitching well overall but seems to always have those 2 really bad pitches that cost him a couple of Hr's every game & he's here for the next 3 years at 16 mil. per year. I believe he is a guy that they can work with to become a 4/5 starter on a very good team although he will be expensive in that role. The young guys in Steele, Assad, Wicks should easily have a spot in the rotation & eventually Horton should be up with the team next year. The others can be very good BP guys & an injury replacement when a front line starter goes down. If Stro opts out & they sign Hendricks I just don't see room for Yamamoto & if Stro opts in that seems impossible to have room for him so I don't see the Cubs a real possibility of a destination. Sorry , but you make room for Yamamoto if you think you have a legit chance to sign him and are ok with committing what it would take. NO WAY in hell am I passing on him because of Kyle Hendricks. I love what Kyle's done for the Cubs in his career and he's had a nice bounce back season when I thought he might be done ( glad to be wrong about that) but realistically with alll the young arms I don't see him being among the best 5-6 rotation candidates moving forward and I can't see Smyly being used as a starter anymore. Taillon is not going anywhere so we have to hope they can figure out the problem , so they are stuck with him as the veteran for the rotation. Stroman probably does opt out if he feels and looks healthy if he can get in a couple starts to show teams that, but you never know. Even with taking a pass on Yamamoto and Stroman leaving and Smyly certainly no longer in the rotation I'm probably not picking up Hendricks option unless they rip that up and cut the AAV way down and make it a 2 year deal at no more than 8-10 per year. Yes they have a decent amount coming off the books , but when you can pay a rotation spot like Wicks, Horton, Brown, Assad, Wesneski league minimum you have to look at cost somewhere and is Kyle going to give them another productive 1-2 years to the point he's worth paying the difference it would be to have one of them instead of him ? Steele Taillon Wicks Horton Assad/Brown/Wesneski/Kilian I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs..
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 12:56:04 GMT -5
Sorry , but you make room for Yamamoto if you think you have a legit chance to sign him and are ok with committing what it would take. NO WAY in hell am I passing on him because of Kyle Hendricks. I love what Kyle's done for the Cubs in his career and he's had a nice bounce back season when I thought he might be done ( glad to be wrong about that) but realistically with alll the young arms I don't see him being among the best 5-6 rotation candidates moving forward and I can't see Smyly being used as a starter anymore. Taillon is not going anywhere so we have to hope they can figure out the problem , so they are stuck with him as the veteran for the rotation. Stroman probably does opt out if he feels and looks healthy if he can get in a couple starts to show teams that, but you never know. Even with taking a pass on Yamamoto and Stroman leaving and Smyly certainly no longer in the rotation I'm probably not picking up Hendricks option unless they rip that up and cut the AAV way down and make it a 2 year deal at no more than 8-10 per year. Yes they have a decent amount coming off the books , but when you can pay a rotation spot like Wicks, Horton, Brown, Assad, Wesneski league minimum you have to look at cost somewhere and is Kyle going to give them another productive 1-2 years to the point he's worth paying the difference it would be to have one of them instead of him ? Steele Taillon Wicks Horton Assad/Brown/Wesneski/Kilian I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs.. Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 13:06:41 GMT -5
Sorry , but you make room for Yamamoto if you think you have a legit chance to sign him and are ok with committing what it would take. NO WAY in hell am I passing on him because of Kyle Hendricks. I love what Kyle's done for the Cubs in his career and he's had a nice bounce back season when I thought he might be done ( glad to be wrong about that) but realistically with alll the young arms I don't see him being among the best 5-6 rotation candidates moving forward and I can't see Smyly being used as a starter anymore. Taillon is not going anywhere so we have to hope they can figure out the problem , so they are stuck with him as the veteran for the rotation. Stroman probably does opt out if he feels and looks healthy if he can get in a couple starts to show teams that, but you never know. Even with taking a pass on Yamamoto and Stroman leaving and Smyly certainly no longer in the rotation I'm probably not picking up Hendricks option unless they rip that up and cut the AAV way down and make it a 2 year deal at no more than 8-10 per year. Yes they have a decent amount coming off the books , but when you can pay a rotation spot like Wicks, Horton, Brown, Assad, Wesneski league minimum you have to look at cost somewhere and is Kyle going to give them another productive 1-2 years to the point he's worth paying the difference it would be to have one of them instead of him ? Steele Taillon Wicks Horton Assad/Brown/Wesneski/Kilian I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs.. Regarding Hendricks being a mentor , I totally see your point, he's the ultimate pro and a great guy to have around as an example for the young arms , and I'm not under selling that mentor thing , but it doesn't have to come from a rostered player. Steele seemed to turn the corner on his career after having a conversation with Lester , long after he was gone from the Cubs roster . Bellinger is going to cost a lot , they will have to cut back and think ahead in some areas, and with so many young arms that look legit that's probably one of the main reasons they also don't have interest in keeping Stro around for multiple years. You don't want to tie up a shit ton of money in a rotation the way guys get hurt. I would not mind them going all in on Yamamoto , but I really hope they have no interest in guys like Nola , while you can never have too much pitching , they have so many arms that will be cheap for multiple years that I don't think it's wise for them to be dumping big free agent money into pitching or extending pitching. I was all about extending Stroman for months , I would not shut up about it , but the way a lot of the pitchers in the system progressed , where Wicks looks like he's ready , Brown is close, Horton is not going to take much longer, the way Assad has stepped up ..........spend that money on Bellinger , make sure that happens and then see where you are. They lose Bellinger, they take a huge step backwards and I think they know it.
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Post by TheChico on Sept 5, 2023 13:43:09 GMT -5
I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs.. Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. My bet is they will go with Madrigal at 3B next season and see if Matt Shaw can continue to roll in the minors at 3B and hope he can be the long term answers. I know Madrigal lacks the power but the dude has been clutch since being called back up and his defense is extremely good even with the lack of an arm for that spot. Chapman will be 31 next season, he would be a excellent defender and does have a good bat, but he is going to want a long term deal and I just don't see the Cubs wanting to give that out and also I don't see the need to do so either.
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Post by fine09 on Sept 5, 2023 14:15:19 GMT -5
I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs.. Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. I took that estimate right off of one of the websites similar to MLBTraderumors a few weeks ago but it might have been beacherreport or Bleachernation, something like that but they very much felt he was going to have his big contract after this year since he had a down 2022 year & signed that pillow contract - similar to Bellinger's situation. Comparing Chapman & Candelario over their past 7 years Chapmans OPS+ are 111, 137, 127, 120, 100, 116 & 111 this year. Candelario's OPS+ are 107, 91, 70, 137, 121, 81 & 124 this year. Basically the same age but Chapman is by far the best fielder. I would think Chapman is going to get a 6 or 7 year deal in the 22 to 25 mil AAV so much longer years & much higher AAV.
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Post by irishcubfan on Sept 5, 2023 14:25:33 GMT -5
I am increasingly in favor of skipping out on Ohtani, Bellinger, and others and target/land Juan Soto the following year.
Would rather spend 40 million a year on Soto (just throwing numbers out there) versus 28 million a year on Bellinger.
The difference of the 12 million is not much in terms of roster building, 12 million can buy stalwarts such as Barnhardt/Mancini. Spend the extra 12ish on a true generational talent (and younger) Soto versus Bellinger.
Ohtani's latest injury leads me to believe he will be a long term DH/maybe closer instead of SP. Given his age, would pass on him.
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Post by irishcubfan on Sept 5, 2023 14:27:27 GMT -5
Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. I took that estimate right off of one of the websites similar to MLBTraderumors a few weeks ago but it might have been beacherreport or Bleachernation, something like that but they very much felt he was going to have his big contract after this year since he had a down 2022 year & signed that pillow contract - similar to Bellinger's situation. Comparing Chapman & Candelario over their past 7 years Chapmans OPS+ are 111, 137, 127, 120, 100, 116 & 111 this year. Candelario's OPS+ are 107, 91, 70, 137, 121, 81 & 124 this year. Basically the same age but Chapman is by far the best fielder. I would think Chapman is going to get a 6 or 7 year deal in the 22 to 25 mil AAV so much longer years & much higher AAV. Think Candy would be agreeable to sign those contracts that Hoyer loves, short term with a bit extra money per year for the player (Happ/Stroman). Can't see Hoyer ponying up a 6 year contract for Chapman.
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Post by irishcubfan on Sept 5, 2023 14:28:35 GMT -5
Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. My bet is they will go with Madrigal at 3B next season and see if Matt Shaw can continue to roll in the minors at 3B and hope he can be the long term answers. I know Madrigal lacks the power but the dude has been clutch since being called back up and his defense is extremely good even with the lack of an arm for that spot. Chapman will be 31 next season, he would be a excellent defender and does have a good bat, but he is going to want a long term deal and I just don't see the Cubs wanting to give that out and also I don't see the need to do so either. I am guessing Shaw at either 2b or 3b in 25.
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Post by irishcubfan on Sept 5, 2023 14:31:49 GMT -5
I guess I should have explained what I would do with the $$ not spent on Yamamoto which is spend it on Bellinger & our 3rd. baseman going forward which I would see right now as Jeimer on a 3/4 year deal at an AAV of 17 to 20 mil per. I think it is still no guarantee that Yamamoto will be worth more to the Cubs than Hendricks will be especially when you factor in the mentorship he will provide to all of our other pitchers - especially the young ones. One thing for sure is that Yamamoto will not be able to mentor the you guys like Kyle will. If we can have Bellinger & Candelario ALONG with Yamamoto then I'd probably be ok with it but as far as priorities go I rank them at Bellinger - Candelario - Hendricks or Yamamoto & with the Cubs position on this I just don't see how there aren't a half dozen other teams willing to go much higher on him than the Cubs.. Regarding Hendricks being a mentor , I totally see your point, he's the ultimate pro and a great guy to have around as an example for the young arms , and I'm not under selling that mentor thing , but it doesn't have to come from a rostered player. Steele seemed to turn the corner on his career after having a conversation with Lester , long after he was gone from the Cubs roster . Bellinger is going to cost a lot , they will have to cut back and think ahead in some areas, and with so many young arms that look legit that's probably one of the main reasons they also don't have interest in keeping Stro around for multiple years. You don't want to tie up a shit ton of money in a rotation the way guys get hurt. I would not mind them going all in on Yamamoto , but I really hope they have no interest in guys like Nola , while you can never have too much pitching , they have so many arms that will be cheap for multiple years that I don't think it's wise for them to be dumping big free agent money into pitching or extending pitching. I was all about extending Stroman for months , I would not shut up about it , but the way a lot of the pitchers in the system progressed , where Wicks looks like he's ready , Brown is close, Horton is not going to take much longer, the way Assad has stepped up ..........spend that money on Bellinger , make sure that happens and then see where you are. They lose Bellinger, they take a huge step backwards and I think they know it. All of these SP are on innings and pitch limits. Will need to factor that into the equation. Read an article a bit ago (may be out of date with current info) that informed Ferris's high pitch count on the year was 68. Ridiculous if that is still accurate. Horton has like 80 innings on him, will probably be 90 or so after the playoffs.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 15:05:19 GMT -5
Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. My bet is they will go with Madrigal at 3B next season and see if Matt Shaw can continue to roll in the minors at 3B and hope he can be the long term answers. I know Madrigal lacks the power but the dude has been clutch since being called back up and his defense is extremely good even with the lack of an arm for that spot. Chapman will be 31 next season, he would be a excellent defender and does have a good bat, but he is going to want a long term deal and I just don't see the Cubs wanting to give that out and also I don't see the need to do so either. I would be ok if they went with what they have at 3b (Madrigal) with the hope of Shaw taking over at some point. It would be nice to get Champan but it's not something I feel they would need to do , if Shaw wasn't around and making such a progessive rise, then I would feel they need to do something with 3b. Having Madrigal around is also a good safety net incase Shaw stalls a bit. He's played a damn good 3b and he's been a good situational hitter so to me it's not going to be worth maybe sinking 20 million + a year and over 100 million plus over the contract into 3b when you could have Madrigal/Shaw there for less than a couple million a year combined next season. I like Candelario a lot , I just wouldn't want them to pay much to keep him around
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