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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 15:10:39 GMT -5
Bellinger should be priority #1 unless they are certain they can sign Ohtani. 3B , I like Jeimer , but not at anything near that money and length. I would not go past 1-2 years with him and I don't think there is any way a team pays him anywhere near that AAV. Yes he is having an excellent season , but he doesn't have a great resume behind it to back it up. I don't think his AAV is going to jump from the 5 he got this season to the 17-20 range. I'm not even sure it sees double digits. I'm thinking he might see a 3/27 type deal at best , but I could be way off I know it might be pushing it , but I can see Shaw being ready at some point in 2024 and there is nowhere else to put him other than 3b which seems like an obvious spot so if they want to bring Candy back which I'm not against , it's not going to be playing 3b for the next 3-4 years , they have Shaw, Traintos, Murray Jr, Rojas plus others all as possible future options too so I really would not like to see them go in the 3/4 51/60 area on Jeimer. If they are going to decide to spend on 3b and commit multiple years then I keep going back and forth on Chapman , not real crazy about his bat anymore but an infield of him, Swanson, Nico and Belli could possibly be the best defensive infield ever and that intrigues me. I took that estimate right off of one of the websites similar to MLBTraderumors a few weeks ago but it might have been beacherreport or Bleachernation, something like that but they very much felt he was going to have his big contract after this year since he had a down 2022 year & signed that pillow contract - similar to Bellinger's situation. Comparing Chapman & Candelario over their past 7 years Chapmans OPS+ are 111, 137, 127, 120, 100, 116 & 111 this year. Candelario's OPS+ are 107, 91, 70, 137, 121, 81 & 124 this year. Basically the same age but Chapman is by far the best fielder. I would think Chapman is going to get a 6 or 7 year deal in the 22 to 25 mil AAV so much longer years & much higher AAV. Can't really liken it to Belli though because despite more than one recent bad season the guy has a lot of hardware on his resume to the point he was one of the games top players while Candelario has been nothing more than a fringe starter/ utilty type. Like I said I could be wrong , but I don't see anything near that for Candelario
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 15:17:18 GMT -5
I am increasingly in favor of skipping out on Ohtani, Bellinger, and others and target/land Juan Soto the following year. Would rather spend 40 million a year on Soto (just throwing numbers out there) versus 28 million a year on Bellinger. The difference of the 12 million is not much in terms of roster building, 12 million can buy stalwarts such as Barnhardt/Mancini. Spend the extra 12ish on a true generational talent (and younger) Soto versus Bellinger. Ohtani's latest injury leads me to believe he will be a long term DH/maybe closer instead of SP. Given his age, would pass on him. I was going to say Soto is not 12 million a year more of a player than Belli , who I think when you consider defense, baserunning , Bellinger is the better all around player. But then I keep forgetting Soto is ONLY currently 24 years old ........that's insane. But the thing is , would the Cubs go to the territory it would take to sign Soto. I don't think they would , the guy turned down 440 million. I think the Cubs would go there with Ohtani because of the money they'd make back in marketing , Soto is a great young player, but he's not going to bring the return back money wise only a guy like Ohtani would. I'd rather they roll with Bellinger and just keep the farm flowing .
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Post by thisbuds4u on Sept 5, 2023 15:20:26 GMT -5
Regarding Hendricks being a mentor , I totally see your point, he's the ultimate pro and a great guy to have around as an example for the young arms , and I'm not under selling that mentor thing , but it doesn't have to come from a rostered player. Steele seemed to turn the corner on his career after having a conversation with Lester , long after he was gone from the Cubs roster . Bellinger is going to cost a lot , they will have to cut back and think ahead in some areas, and with so many young arms that look legit that's probably one of the main reasons they also don't have interest in keeping Stro around for multiple years. You don't want to tie up a shit ton of money in a rotation the way guys get hurt. I would not mind them going all in on Yamamoto , but I really hope they have no interest in guys like Nola , while you can never have too much pitching , they have so many arms that will be cheap for multiple years that I don't think it's wise for them to be dumping big free agent money into pitching or extending pitching. I was all about extending Stroman for months , I would not shut up about it , but the way a lot of the pitchers in the system progressed , where Wicks looks like he's ready , Brown is close, Horton is not going to take much longer, the way Assad has stepped up ..........spend that money on Bellinger , make sure that happens and then see where you are. They lose Bellinger, they take a huge step backwards and I think they know it. All of these SP are on innings and pitch limits. Will need to factor that into the equation. Read an article a bit ago (may be out of date with current info) that informed Ferris's high pitch count on the year was 68. Ridiculous if that is still accurate. Horton has like 80 innings on him, will probably be 90 or so after the playoffs. I believe the bullpen needs help and that's what Hoyer should address this off-season. With Fulmer's injury and Assad moving to being a starter, the Cubs are lacking options to finish games.
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Post by holycow23 on Sept 5, 2023 16:44:01 GMT -5
Does anyone know what kind of deal Yamamoto is looking for. That would be the determining factor for me. If he is the real deal and 25 years old he could command a steep price tag. I would love to get him if the price is right but if the bidding gets crazy the cubs really aren't in a desperate situation when it comes to pitching. Many reasons have been given in past post on this thread.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 5, 2023 17:20:46 GMT -5
Does anyone know what kind of deal Yamamoto is looking for. That would be the determining factor for me. If he is the real deal and 25 years old he could command a steep price tag. I would love to get him if the price is right but if the bidding gets crazy the cubs really aren't in a desperate situation when it comes to pitching. Many reasons have been given in past post on this thread. I don't know , but there is also a posting fee with him so they have to deal with that. The MLB club that eventually signs Yamamoto would need to pay the Buffaloes a fee that is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars committed thereafter.
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Post by Clark Street on Sept 5, 2023 17:56:24 GMT -5
Japanese "stars" are really hit-or-miss relative to their costs. Let another team accept the risk. The money saved may be better spent elsewhere.
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Post by holycow23 on Sept 5, 2023 18:23:27 GMT -5
Does anyone know what kind of deal Yamamoto is looking for. That would be the determining factor for me. If he is the real deal and 25 years old he could command a steep price tag. I would love to get him if the price is right but if the bidding gets crazy the cubs really aren't in a desperate situation when it comes to pitching. Many reasons have been given in past post on this thread. I don't know , but there is also a posting fee with him so they have to deal with that. The MLB club that eventually signs Yamamoto would need to pay the Buffaloes a fee that is equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any dollars committed thereafter. I would like to think the AAV would be most important and the posting fee would't matter. But there are numerous things that need to play out first before the cubs need to see if they need to be in this market.
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Post by rvn11 on Sept 6, 2023 9:33:56 GMT -5
Cubs at least have to be in the running and do their due diligence. Of the arms I had them potentially eyeing up this offseason, Ohtani is no longer an option and Urias might not be available either. If they want to upgrade the rotation the options have decreased quite a bit the past few weeks.
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Post by kfidd on Sept 6, 2023 9:54:27 GMT -5
Cubs at least have to be in the running and do their due diligence. Of the arms I had them potentially eyeing up this offseason, Ohtani is no longer an option and Urias might not be available either. If they want to upgrade the rotation the options have decreased quite a bit the past few weeks. The elite tier of both bats and now starting pitcher free agents is slimming. Any high impact talent signings this off-season are going to be at a premium. Bellinger and Yamamoto are possibly the cream of the crop, and I’d love for the Cubs to secure both. A deep playoff run this fall could do wonders for both the league-wide optimism surrounding our Cubs as well as Jed getting the spending green light sooner rather than later.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 6, 2023 10:06:00 GMT -5
Cubs at least have to be in the running and do their due diligence. Of the arms I had them potentially eyeing up this offseason, Ohtani is no longer an option and Urias might not be available either. If they want to upgrade the rotation the options have decreased quite a bit the past few weeks. The elite tier of both bats and now starting pitcher free agents is slimming. Any high impact talent signings this off-season are going to be at a premium. Bellinger and Yamamoto are possibly the cream of the crop, and I’d love for the Cubs to secure both. A deep playoff run this fall could do wonders for both the league-wide optimism surrounding our Cubs as well as Jed getting the spending green light sooner rather than later. I think he already has that light, they are pushing the LT in a season looked at as a transition one , and the place is being back to being packed and Rickets is feeling that electric atmosphere again so it's go time. Things are building towards this being legit one of the better teams in the league and not them being a contender just because they are in a shitty division and the Cubs are just beginning to see the fruits of the farm so 2024 is going to be enormpus for them in a lot of aspects, but to keep the momentum they have to sign Bellinger. There is nothing really out there to replace him and again I hold zero hope for Ohtani so that's why I think Belli is a must or the team takes a free fall backwards a couple notches. Forget about waiting for Soto in 2025 , we know how that waiting for guys stuff has played out often lately.
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Post by TheChico on Sept 6, 2023 10:36:51 GMT -5
The elite tier of both bats and now starting pitcher free agents is slimming. Any high impact talent signings this off-season are going to be at a premium. Bellinger and Yamamoto are possibly the cream of the crop, and I’d love for the Cubs to secure both. A deep playoff run this fall could do wonders for both the league-wide optimism surrounding our Cubs as well as Jed getting the spending green light sooner rather than later. I think he already has that light, they are pushing the LT in a season looked at as a transition one , and the place is being back to being packed and Rickets is feeling that electric atmosphere again so it's go time. Things are building towards this being legit one of the better teams in the league and not them being a contender just because they are in a shitty division and the Cubs are just beginning to see the fruits of the farm so 2024 is going to be enormpus for them in a lot of aspects, but to keep the momentum they have to sign Bellinger. There is nothing really out there to replace him and again I hold zero hope for Ohtani so that's why I think Belli is a must or the team takes a free fall backwards a couple notches. Forget about waiting for Soto in 2025 , we know how that waiting for guys stuff has played out often lately. yeah.. I don't want to wait for Soto, that is a unnecessary risk to take when you can just sign Bellinger also it would be step backwards in 2024
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2023 12:32:45 GMT -5
Give me Belli & Yamamoto & figure everything else out after those 2 signings, but only if Ricketts agrees to go above the CBT.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 6, 2023 12:44:02 GMT -5
I think he already has that light, they are pushing the LT in a season looked at as a transition one , and the place is being back to being packed and Rickets is feeling that electric atmosphere again so it's go time. Things are building towards this being legit one of the better teams in the league and not them being a contender just because they are in a shitty division and the Cubs are just beginning to see the fruits of the farm so 2024 is going to be enormpus for them in a lot of aspects, but to keep the momentum they have to sign Bellinger. There is nothing really out there to replace him and again I hold zero hope for Ohtani so that's why I think Belli is a must or the team takes a free fall backwards a couple notches. Forget about waiting for Soto in 2025 , we know how that waiting for guys stuff has played out often lately. yeah.. I don't want to wait for Soto, that is a unnecessary risk to take when you can just sign Bellinger also it would be step backwards in 2024 You already know Belli works with this team and clubhouse , not so sure Soto would work here , he has a Sosa like vibe to me. I was always in favor of the Cubs signing Belli from even before it happened , what sold me on wanting him here for many more years was the un selfish play. Here is a guy working to get the big payday and re-prove he's a star player and he's poking 2 strike pitches into left center to get runs across the plate, almost placing balls in the holes while most players in that salary drive would be trying to pad their HR totals on every pitch. Plus Soto is going to want 500 million and more than 10 years so as great of a hitter he is and he's still so damn young I'd rather they sign Bellinger and move forward with more payroll flexibility. Gotta get players while you can , not hope guys will be there for the taking in the future.
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Post by batman66 on Sept 6, 2023 12:47:09 GMT -5
Give me Belli & Yamamoto & figure everything else out after those 2 signings, but only if Ricketts agrees to go above the CBT. He already said he has no issues with doing it and he also said they will go over when they need to but they will also play it accordingly , probably meaning he's not doing it for more than 2 years straight where you start getting the heavier fines and loss of pool money etc. But if they are in a position where after being over for 2 years and a key player is out there at a deadline , I highly doubt he'd shut the checkbook.
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Post by holycow23 on Sept 9, 2023 23:03:34 GMT -5
Yamamoto threw a no hitter this evening. Second of his career. He currently has a 42 inning scoreless streak going.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Sept 10, 2023 4:00:33 GMT -5
Give me Belli & Yamamoto & figure everything else out after those 2 signings, but only if Ricketts agrees to go above the CBT. I agree with re-signing Bellinger but Josh Hader should be the top priority. The bullpen should not be an after-thought when you consider of all the innings pitched by the Cubs staff, the bullpen has pitched 40% of those innings. We're seeing the effects of thin bullpen, Fulmer, Leiter and Alzolay have been worn down and the Cubs are left with a group of pitchers who lack experience and have control issues. Another hitter to go along with Bellinger would be great, preferably a 1st baseman.
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Post by threeandone on Sept 10, 2023 12:29:47 GMT -5
Give me Belli & Yamamoto & figure everything else out after those 2 signings, but only if Ricketts agrees to go above the CBT. I agree with re-signing Bellinger but Josh Hader should be the top priority. The bullpen should not be an after-thought when you consider of all the innings pitched by the Cubs staff, the bullpen has pitched 40% of those innings. We're seeing the effects of thin bullpen, Fulmer, Leiter and Alzolay have been worn down and the Cubs are left with a group of pitchers who lack experience and have control issues. Another hitter to go along with Bellinger would be great, preferably a 1st baseman. I am a huge proponent of re-signing Bellinger at almost whatever it might take. He is perfect to be a leader for the young guys coming up and provides everything the team needs. Hader does make sense too as they need to solidify the bullpen and he has the veteran experience to again go with the kids. I hope they don't even consider and waste time on going after Ohtani and just focus on Bellinger as the big signing.
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Post by TheChico on Sept 11, 2023 11:38:33 GMT -5
Give me Belli & Yamamoto & figure everything else out after those 2 signings, but only if Ricketts agrees to go above the CBT. I agree with re-signing Bellinger but Josh Hader should be the top priority. The bullpen should not be an after-thought when you consider of all the innings pitched by the Cubs staff, the bullpen has pitched 40% of those innings. We're seeing the effects of thin bullpen, Fulmer, Leiter and Alzolay have been worn down and the Cubs are left with a group of pitchers who lack experience and have control issues. Another hitter to go along with Bellinger would be great, preferably a 1st baseman. Knowing the FO, they will not even look into Hader as he is going to demand something near Edwin Diaz got last offseason and Cubs have a good amount of good bullpen options. If they are going to find a late inning arm I bet they do it by trade and not going to pay Hader $18-$21 AAV per season.
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Post by irishcubfan on Sept 11, 2023 12:47:31 GMT -5
I agree with re-signing Bellinger but Josh Hader should be the top priority. The bullpen should not be an after-thought when you consider of all the innings pitched by the Cubs staff, the bullpen has pitched 40% of those innings. We're seeing the effects of thin bullpen, Fulmer, Leiter and Alzolay have been worn down and the Cubs are left with a group of pitchers who lack experience and have control issues. Another hitter to go along with Bellinger would be great, preferably a 1st baseman. Knowing the FO, they will not even look into Hader as he is going to demand something near Edwin Diaz got last offseason and Cubs have a good amount of good bullpen options. If they are going to find a late inning arm I bet they do it by trade and not going to pay Hader $18-$21 AAV per season. Agreed, they are not going to bid at top of the market plus they are confident in the piece meal approach. Rightly so given the overall success.
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Post by cfin on Sept 11, 2023 13:49:34 GMT -5
I agree with re-signing Bellinger but Josh Hader should be the top priority. The bullpen should not be an after-thought when you consider of all the innings pitched by the Cubs staff, the bullpen has pitched 40% of those innings. We're seeing the effects of thin bullpen, Fulmer, Leiter and Alzolay have been worn down and the Cubs are left with a group of pitchers who lack experience and have control issues. Another hitter to go along with Bellinger would be great, preferably a 1st baseman. The trouble with this approach is that bullpens are always extremely volatile. Just because a bullpen arm has a great year this year, doesn't mean he'll have a great year next year. Generally speaking, this doesn't happen with offense and starting pitching. It was reasonable to expect Steele to have a similar or better year this year than he had last year. It's reasonable to expect Tallion to have a better year next year than this year. It's not reasonable to expect Leiter, Merryweather, and Alzolay to have similar or better years next year. They might - and wouldn't necessarily advocate outright dumping them after the season, but it's not reasonable to expect that. That's just what bullpens are. I'm not suggesting that a bullpen is not important. I just think it's foolish to throw a ton of money at a bullpen claiming that money will provide stability there. That's never been the case. A $10M bullpen arm is just as likely to flounder as a $700K bullpen arm, except you can cut the $700K bullpen arm, you can't the $10M arm - which means you are then stuck with an expensive roster spot that doesn't do anything. I think you are better off spending money on starting pitching and offense and buying several lottery tickets for the bullpen. Sometimes you DFA one of those lottery ticket bullpen arms and they go on to find success that season with some other team... that's just part of the price you pay. But I would rather have a bullpen that has a lot of moveable pieces (arms that can be DFA'd or optioned down) than high paid lackluster performances. It's up to the manager to figure out bullpen roles as quickly as possible during the season. Find the arms that are going to perform for that season and utilize them as your bridge to finishing out a game. Ross took too long to figure that out this season - or maybe the arms just took too long to start performing. Either way it wasn't until the bullpen was settled that the Cubs really got on track. If the Cubs want to go into next season expecting Leiter, Merryweather, Fulmer, and Alzolay to be their main late inning arms, I'm fine with that... but just don't be shocked if those arms don't perform next season, and Ross will have to be ready to kick them out of that role early on if they aren't performing.
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