|
|
Post by 2mileshighillini on Aug 8, 2024 6:03:39 GMT -5
It looks hopeless.
Padres Hot
DBacks Hot
Braves are the Braves.
Cubs - Since July 3rd Lowpoint (18-12 / .600)←←←
(Since low point) The Cubs have passed 2 Teams -- Nationals & Reds
+5.5 Cardinals
+5.5 Nationals
+4.5 Braves (Cubs - 5.0 Behind Braves for last WC Spot)
+4.0 Brewers (Cubs - 9.0 Behind Division Leader)
+3.0 Reds
+2.0 Pitates (Cubs - 1.0 Game Behind Pirates) Pirates next up in Standings.
+1.5 Giants
+0.0 Mets (Cubs - 4.5 Behind Mets) Mets Highest Placed Non Wild Card Team.
-0.5 Padres (Cubs - 7.0 Behind Padres)
-3.5 Dbacks (DBacks & Padres - Tied atop WC Standings)
Playing .600 was 3.5 Worse than the DBacks.
Playing .600 was 0.5 Worse than the Padres.
Playing .600 kept us even with the Mets.
Playing .600 was 4.5 Better than the Braves.
Playing .600 won't cut it.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Aug 8, 2024 7:40:09 GMT -5
It looks hopeless. Padres Hot DBacks Hot Braves are the Braves. Cubs - Since July 3rd Lowpoint (18-12 / .600)←←←(Since low point) The Cubs have passed 2 Teams -- Nationals & Reds +5.5 Cardinals +5.5 Nationals +4.5 Braves (Cubs - 5.0 Behind Braves for last WC Spot) +4.0 Brewers (Cubs - 9.0 Behind Division Leader) +3.0 Reds +2.0 Pitates (Cubs - 1.0 Game Behind Pirates) Pirates next up in Standings. +1.5 Giants +0.5 DBacks (Cubs - 7.0 Behind DBacks) +0.0 Mets (Cubs - 4.5 Behind Mets) Mets Highest Placed Non Wild Card Team. -1.5 Padres (Cubs - 7.0 Behind Padres) Padres & DBacks - Tied atop WC Standings. Playing .600 was 1.5 Worse than the Padres. Playing .600 kept us even with the Mets. Playing .600 was 0.5 Better than the DBacks. Playing .600 was 4.5 Better than the Braves. Playing .600 won't cut it. It's a helluva long shot , but I actually like the chances the Cubs win the division more than them grabbing a wild card spot. I think they can catch STL and Pittsburgh and the Brewers will be tough to catch but with Yelich likely done for the season and their recent struggles I'm not so sure they have this division wrapped up. I don't expect them to catch them , just saying I like the chances more to catch one team than all the WC contenders even though the division is a longer climb. |
|
|
|
Post by foolforthecity on Aug 8, 2024 7:43:19 GMT -5
It looks hopeless. Padres Hot DBacks Hot Braves are the Braves. Cubs - Since July 3rd Lowpoint (18-12 / .600)←←←(Since low point) The Cubs have passed 2 Teams -- Nationals & Reds +5.5 Cardinals +5.5 Nationals +4.5 Braves (Cubs - 5.0 Behind Braves for last WC Spot) +4.0 Brewers (Cubs - 9.0 Behind Division Leader) +3.0 Reds +2.0 Pitates (Cubs - 1.0 Game Behind Pirates) Pirates next up in Standings. +1.5 Giants +0.5 DBacks (Cubs - 7.0 Behind DBacks) +0.0 Mets (Cubs - 4.5 Behind Mets) Mets Highest Placed Non Wild Card Team. -1.5 Padres (Cubs - 7.0 Behind Padres) Padres & DBacks - Tied atop WC Standings. Playing .600 was 1.5 Worse than the Padres. Playing .600 kept us even with the Mets. Playing .600 was 0.5 Better than the DBacks. Playing .600 was 4.5 Better than the Braves. Playing .600 won't cut it. This is why I’m all for giving the rookies a shot. I don’t know what it would take to give guys like Caisse, Shaw, Ballesteros, a chance. If they could all be up September first , that would give the a month to evaluate what next year might look like. |
|
|
|
Post by kfidd on Aug 8, 2024 8:14:39 GMT -5
Another two problems with both chases?
- Of all the the teams the Cubs are chasing we have only head-to-head matchups with the Pirates remaining (6 games). All chances to take the fight straight to the Brewers, Padres, Dbacks, etc. are long gone.
- The tie breaker scenario is grim stuff. If I am counting correctly we do not hold the tie breaker over any of these teams. Pittsburgh is the only team we could end up having that advantage against.
Bonus unfun
- Unlike last year where 84 wins could get you a Wild Card spot, that is unlikely to be the case this season. The currently Wild Card holders are at minimum holding a .531 win rate. Over the course of a full season that’s about 86-87 wins. Of course that could change by season’s end but I’d venture to guess whether if the Cubs want to play in the postseason this season (Wild Card of division) it’s best to be aiming for about an 87 win pace, or 30-15 the rest of the way.
2miles is right, .600 the rest of the way is simply not good enough. They dug themselves this hole by being pathetic shit for ~2 months, being simply good for the final two won’t do it. They need to be great. No room for error.
|
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 8, 2024 8:31:05 GMT -5
This is the first year, for me, where I realized how difficult it is to leap multiple teams to get ahead in either the WC or division.
Batman's dreaming. They literally have zero games left against the Turds and Brew. They aren't catching anyone. This team is so inconsistent.
|
|
|
|
Post by lajoiesghost on Aug 8, 2024 9:10:11 GMT -5
I won't give up hope quite yet but, yes, it is a long shot. The Cubs need to go on a 10 game win streak or a 15 of 20 or similar hot stretch. But they also have to not come back to Earth after said hot stretch either. Even the slimmest of chances involves not playing mediocre ball anymore.
|
|
|
|
Post by skokiejoe on Aug 8, 2024 10:26:03 GMT -5
I could see the Cubs finishing 84-78 but that will not get a WC this year.
|
|
|
|
Post by Clark Street on Aug 8, 2024 10:28:35 GMT -5
I'm not holding my breath expecting the 2024 Cubs to win the World Series or even get into the Wild Card loaded Postseason Tournament. Nevertheless, I'll root for them to win each remaining game.
|
|
|
|
Post by TheChico on Aug 8, 2024 11:05:18 GMT -5
Cubs don't have a chance, this team is so inconsistent and they will play terrible baseball again at some point which seems to be the pattern , I will not get fooled again by their current hot streak.
They will have to prove it, I am no longer buying into this current team but hopefully they just play good baseball the rest of the way for something to build off going into the offseason.
|
|
|
|
Post by cfin on Aug 8, 2024 11:34:30 GMT -5
This is why I’m all for giving the rookies a shot. I don’t know what it would take to give guys like Caisse, Shaw, Ballesteros, a chance. If they could all be up September first , that would give the a month to evaluate what next year might look like. The problem with that now, after the trade deadline, is that in order to bring up these players you'll have to clear a 40-man spot and a 26-man spot. Nido can go to the 60 day IL, but that doesn't clear a 26-man spot and I'm not sure if there are any optional position players on the 26 man roster. Wisdom and Bote could be candidates to be released. Madrigal and Mastrobuoni could be candidates to be released, but they're not on the 26-man roster. Tauchman could be released as it concerns outfielders. This is where Hoyer really fouled up at the trade deadline. He didn't get rid of any excess fat on the roster to even consider bringing up any of the kids. |
|
|
|
Post by lu13cubbie on Aug 8, 2024 11:47:53 GMT -5
This is why I’m all for giving the rookies a shot. I don’t know what it would take to give guys like Caisse, Shaw, Ballesteros, a chance. If they could all be up September first , that would give the a month to evaluate what next year might look like. The problem with that now, after the trade deadline, is that in order to bring up these players you'll have to clear a 40-man spot and a 26-man spot. Nido can go to the 60 day IL, but that doesn't clear a 26-man spot and I'm not sure if there are any optional position players on the 26 man roster. Wisdom and Bote could be candidates to be released. Madrigal and Mastrobuoni could be candidates to be released, but they're not on the 26-man roster. Tauchman could be released as it concerns outfielders. This is where Hoyer really fouled up at the trade deadline. He didn't get rid of any excess fat on the roster to even consider bringing up any of the kids. I was on vacation during the trade deadline time period. What deals for the Cubs " FAT ", did Hoyer turn down? |
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Aug 8, 2024 12:33:16 GMT -5
This is the first year, for me, where I realized how difficult it is to leap multiple teams to get ahead in either the WC or division. Batman's dreaming. They literally have zero games left against the Turds and Brew. They aren't catching anyone. This team is so inconsistent. Reading is fundamental ! <<I don't expect them to catch them , just saying I like the chances more to catch one team than all the WC contenders even though the division is a longer climb.>> So , no I'm not dreaming , I literally said I don't expect them to catch them and if I was dreaming then I would have said I expect them to catch them. |
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Aug 8, 2024 12:37:10 GMT -5
The problem with that now, after the trade deadline, is that in order to bring up these players you'll have to clear a 40-man spot and a 26-man spot. Nido can go to the 60 day IL, but that doesn't clear a 26-man spot and I'm not sure if there are any optional position players on the 26 man roster. Wisdom and Bote could be candidates to be released. Madrigal and Mastrobuoni could be candidates to be released, but they're not on the 26-man roster. Tauchman could be released as it concerns outfielders. This is where Hoyer really fouled up at the trade deadline. He didn't get rid of any excess fat on the roster to even consider bringing up any of the kids. I was on vacation during the trade deadline time period. What deals for the Cubs " FAT ", did Hoyer turn down? None that we know of, the Cubs keep stuff like that pretty tight. People just assume he wasn't trying to move any of these guys and or refused deals for them. |
|
|
|
Post by thisbuds4u on Aug 8, 2024 12:38:53 GMT -5
Brewers are leading the Braves 8-3 in the 3nd inning. The Cubs are 11 games back of the Brewers in the loss column so catching them is a long shot. With a loss, the Braves and Mets would sit at 54 losses with the Cubs sitting with 60. The Cubs have played more games than the teams they are chasing so there is still a chance.
|
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Aug 8, 2024 12:43:28 GMT -5
This is why I’m all for giving the rookies a shot. I don’t know what it would take to give guys like Caisse, Shaw, Ballesteros, a chance. If they could all be up September first , that would give the a month to evaluate what next year might look like. The problem with that now, after the trade deadline, is that in order to bring up these players you'll have to clear a 40-man spot and a 26-man spot. Nido can go to the 60 day IL, but that doesn't clear a 26-man spot and I'm not sure if there are any optional position players on the 26 man roster. Wisdom and Bote could be candidates to be released. Madrigal and Mastrobuoni could be candidates to be released, but they're not on the 26-man roster. Tauchman could be released as it concerns outfielders. This is where Hoyer really fouled up at the trade deadline. He didn't get rid of any excess fat on the roster to even consider bringing up any of the kids. Yes , but who knows what interest if any there was. For some like Wisdom , Bote , Madrigal , he should have just taken cash or a ptbnl , they are not part of the future and now they should be let go and given a chance to latch on with a playoff contender ( doubtful) but you never know just to open up roster spots. Tauchman should have been traded at the deadline , I can't imagine that there was no interest in him. Caissie should be called up and given a look because I think he needs to be added to the 40 man anyway this winter or be exposed to the rule 5 |
|
|
|
Post by skokiejoe on Aug 8, 2024 14:59:30 GMT -5
WC Standings
WC1 Padres 64-52 +3.0
WC2 D-Backs 63-53 +2.0
WC3 Mets 61-54 …….
Braves 60-54 .5GB
Cards 59-57 2.5GB
Giants 59-58 3.0GB
Pirates 56-58 4.5GB
Cubs 57-60 5.0GB
Reds 56-59 5.0GB
Vs. Padres 2-4
Vs. D-Backs 3-3
Vs. Mets 3-4
Vs. Braves 2-4
Vs. Cards 6-7
Vs. Giants 3-4
Vs. Pirates 3-4 6 games left
Vs. Reds 4-6 3 games left
|
|
|
|
Post by Mike on Aug 8, 2024 16:16:57 GMT -5
PCA may to continue to improve, but Milwaukee bats are on fire (even without Yelich, blegh).
30 Days: .639 OPS
.217/.253/.386
15 Days: .766 OPS
.295/.311/.455
7 Days: .931 OPS
.350/.381/.550 OPS
Alcantara/Caissie/Shaw/Triantos will arrive in the order of out-of-options... Hoerner/Happ/Suzuki will all be free agents in 2027.
|
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 8, 2024 17:03:30 GMT -5
This is the first year, for me, where I realized how difficult it is to leap multiple teams to get ahead in either the WC or division. Batman's dreaming. They literally have zero games left against the Turds and Brew. They aren't catching anyone. This team is so inconsistent. Reading is fundamental ! <<I don't expect them to catch them , just saying I like the chances more to catch one team than all the WC contenders even though the division is a longer climb.>> So , no I'm not dreaming , I literally said I don't expect them to catch them and if I was dreaming then I would have said I expect them to catch them. Weird take.... they have to jump 4 teams and are 4.5 out of the WC. For the division they have to jump 3 teams and are 9.5 games out (11 in the loss column) with 0 games left vs 2 of those teams, including the division leader. I'd like their chances vs 4 teams and 4.5 games, but ok. |
|
|
|
Post by chubbycub on Aug 8, 2024 18:12:51 GMT -5
PCA may to continue to improve, but Milwaukee bats are on fire (even without Yelich, blegh). 30 Days: .639 OPS .217/.253/.386 15 Days: .766 OPS .295/.311/.455 7 Days: .931 OPS .350/.381/.550 OPS Alcantara/Caissie/Shaw/Triantos will arrive in the order of out-of-options... Hoerner/Happ/Suzuki will all be free agents in 2027. If I learned anything from reading "Peanuts" (Snoopy and CBrown), it was
BLECCH or BLEAHH
Good old days
|
|
|
|
Post by 2mileshighillini on Aug 8, 2024 22:26:45 GMT -5
2miles is right, .600 the rest of the way is simply not good enough. Just seems crazy... The Cubs could play .600 Ball for the final 75 Games and STILL not be one of the best 6 Teams in the League. 45 Games Remaining
27-18 (.600)Overall Record 84-78 30-15 (.667)Overall Record 87-75 33-12 (.733)Overall Record 90-72 In 2023, it took the Cubs 84 Games (52-32) -- ( .619) to go from 10 Under to 10 Over. A feat, no Cubs Team had ever done before. 28-17 ( .622) the rest of the way this year, leaves us at 85-77 So, even if we play BETTER than that stretch we had last year, we probably don't make it. Unless we play " out of this world" better. In which case, I'll be looking at the WS odds (Cubs currently 300-1 / $100=$30,000). |
|
