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Post by Deleted on Feb 6, 2024 12:06:44 GMT -5
We are projected at 80.2 wins. Thoughts?  |
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Post by foolforthecity on Feb 6, 2024 12:21:46 GMT -5
I’ll be disappointed if it is.
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Post by kfidd on Feb 6, 2024 12:40:39 GMT -5
I know projections are generally pretty conservative but I’d take the under on that right now. Not by a ton, but more in the 75-78 win range. I agree with where they are harshest, and that’s our rotation. Optimism is healthy but I’m generally stunned for how often I read Cubs fans sharing their positive thoughts on our rotation as presently constructed. Taillon as a solid number 2 because he had a strong second half after being a career 4.00 starter and enduring an abysmal first half. Imanaga to translate positively in his rookie year despite his propensity for the longball and possibly pitching with less routine rest than he ever has. The unproven as consistent MLB starters Assad and Wicks.
This is not even mentioning how worn down Steele appeared in the final month, or how Hendricks outperformed expectations by a wide margin last year yet still is an aging soft tosser in a rotation filled with lower velocity. I am NOT saying that our entire rotation is due for underperformance, but rather than the confidence in it to be a playoff contending group is way too glass overflowing for me.
There’s a lot of emphasis placed by many on the weaker NLC as well. The problem there is two-fold: the Reds, Pirates, and Cardinals have all improved while the balanced schedule takes away our ability to play 80 games against this perceived weaker division. So a mid upper 70 win total sounds about right to me. With a lot of luck the Cubs can win this division as presently constructed but bulking up the pitching staff a bit would be wise.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 6, 2024 13:08:17 GMT -5
I’ll be disappointed if it is. I would also be disappointed but I also don't believe we are done making moves. I do however have more confidence with our current rotation than many on here do simply because we are starting the year with a better starting pitching staff than we had at the All Star break considering Stroman was basically done after the England trip AND we have added Imanaga who I also believe will be very good at times but will have to have his innings watched (skip a start once a month maybe). Hendricks should be right there in the high 3 to low 4 ERA & Taillon will not be tinkering with anything at the Cubs request because he looked to be just fine towards the end of last year. I also think Steele did hit a bit of a wall at the end of 2023 but I expect him to be our ace once again in 2024. One of Assad, Wicks, Wesneski & Brown should easily slot in as our #5 and possibly more for injuries or giving guys some extra time between starts. I would still love to have Cody back at a market value price as opposed to a "Boras ask just because price" situation and he really will have to start dealing with reality soon because those 4 top 10 free agents are going to start putting pressure on him if they haven't already. Sign one more pitcher (Lorenzen maybe) who could be a BP or even a starter or really good long man & call it finished in my book. I'd feel pretty good about an 86 to 88 win season at that point & I can live with that. |
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Post by jpepitone on Feb 6, 2024 13:10:44 GMT -5
Why are the Turds projected for first? They finished in last last year, they didn’t make any significant improvements, and their older players are a year older.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 13:57:23 GMT -5
We are projected at 80.2 wins. Thoughts? Never been a fan of the Pecota projections and they were horrible last year so that didn't change. 80 win team seems about right though , give or take a few games either way but I don't think the Cubs are done with their roster and my opinion greatly changes with a Bellinger signing . |
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Post by irishcubfan on Feb 6, 2024 14:20:14 GMT -5
Projections never like lack of velocity pitching. Defense will be a huge factor yet again to make the Cubs staff better than what they are. The 2016 team had historically good defense, not saying this team is as good defensively but for the vast majority of games the defense will help a pitch to contact starting staff/some relievers.
Two reasons why I still want Snell: price of pitching is only going to go up and he has plus stuff. Don't particularly care whether he is a lefty or not, would take him and his price tag over a lesser right handed talent such as Bieber later on in the year. Regarding pitching, most concerned about the closer role as I don't think a team should ever count on Azolay staying healthy for a full year. Maybe Almonte will surprise.
Most concerned about the offense as I only see an entire team of complimentary players with the possible exception of an outbreak or two but this is beating a dead horse.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 6, 2024 14:31:29 GMT -5
If the season started today, with the current roster..... this is a 75 win team at best IMO
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Post by cfin on Feb 6, 2024 14:39:46 GMT -5
Snell just doesn't impress me with his peripheral numbers.
He pitched 180 innings over 32 starts, slightly less than 5.2 innings per start.
He threw 3170 pitches over those 32 starts or right at 99 pitches per start.
So at 99 pitches per start he's not getting you out of the 6th inning.
Steele...
170.1 innings over 30 starts or just over 5.2 innings per start.
2682 total pitches in those 30 starts or 89 pitches per start.
Again, Steele is not getting you out of the 6th inning in his starts, but he's getting further per start than Snell and using 10 less pitches.
The AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole:
209 innings over 33 starts or 6.1 innings per start, he's getting you out of the 6th inning.
3286 pitches across those 33 starts or 99.5 pitches per start.
So about the same number of pitches per start than Snell, but he's giving you 2 more outs.
Jordan Montgomery:
188.2 innings over 32 starts or not quite 6 innings per start.
2923 pitches over those 32 starts or 91 pitches per start.
So he's giving you 1 more out per start than Snell, and using about 9 pitches less to do so.
I agree that pitching is just going to get more expensive, but I'm not sure Snell is someone I want to hang my hat on.
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Post by irishcubfan on Feb 6, 2024 14:45:31 GMT -5
Snell just doesn't impress me with his peripheral numbers. He pitched 180 innings over 32 starts, slightly less than 5.2 innings per start. He threw 3170 pitches over those 32 starts or right at 99 pitches per start. So at 99 pitches per start he's not getting you out of the 6th inning. Steele... 170.1 innings over 30 starts or just over 5.2 innings per start. 2682 total pitches in those 30 starts or 89 pitches per start. Again, Steele is not getting you out of the 6th inning in his starts, but he's getting further per start than Snell and using 10 less pitches. The AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole: 209 innings over 33 starts or 6.1 innings per start, he's getting you out of the 6th inning. 3286 pitches across those 33 starts or 99.5 pitches per start. So about the same number of pitches per start than Snell, but he's giving you 2 more outs. Jordan Montgomery: 188.2 innings over 32 starts or not quite 6 innings per start. 2923 pitches over those 32 starts or 91 pitches per start. So he's giving you 1 more out per start than Snell, and using about 9 pitches less to do so. I agree that pitching is just going to get more expensive, but I'm not sure Snell is someone I want to hang my hat on. Yep, Snell will definitely average less than 6 innings per start. Quality innings but won't get length from him. This is where I want the Cubs to flex their financial muscles and act like the only big market team in the division. Would feel much more comfortable with Snell versus over extending someone like Assad who I think will end get lit up like a Christmas tree. But very unlikely sign of course, fantasy land. |
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Post by rvn11 on Feb 6, 2024 14:48:19 GMT -5
Why are the Turds projected for first? They finished in last last year, they didn’t make any significant improvements, and their older players are a year older. Sonny Gray is a solid TOR addition. |
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 14:50:05 GMT -5
Snell just doesn't impress me with his peripheral numbers. He pitched 180 innings over 32 starts, slightly less than 5.2 innings per start. He threw 3170 pitches over those 32 starts or right at 99 pitches per start. So at 99 pitches per start he's not getting you out of the 6th inning. Steele... 170.1 innings over 30 starts or just over 5.2 innings per start. 2682 total pitches in those 30 starts or 89 pitches per start. Again, Steele is not getting you out of the 6th inning in his starts, but he's getting further per start than Snell and using 10 less pitches. The AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole: 209 innings over 33 starts or 6.1 innings per start, he's getting you out of the 6th inning. 3286 pitches across those 33 starts or 99.5 pitches per start. So about the same number of pitches per start than Snell, but he's giving you 2 more outs. Jordan Montgomery: 188.2 innings over 32 starts or not quite 6 innings per start. 2923 pitches over those 32 starts or 91 pitches per start. So he's giving you 1 more out per start than Snell, and using about 9 pitches less to do so. I agree that pitching is just going to get more expensive, but I'm not sure Snell is someone I want to hang my hat on. Snell is a strike out pitcher, those guys often build up the pitch counts 234 K's last season and he also walked a ton 99 , but he had an ERA abouta full run less than Montgomery. I'd much rather have Snell , he's often looked at as a legit ace type who has won 2 Cy's . Montgomery has never even gotten a single Cy vote . |
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Post by Cubtastic on Feb 6, 2024 14:53:32 GMT -5
We are projected at 80.2 wins. Thoughts? That's prob about right,you can always go a few games either way but it's a 83 win team last year who is a bit worse at this time, we will see how things play out the rest of FA but it's a team with plenty of question marks. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Feb 6, 2024 15:06:21 GMT -5
Snell just doesn't impress me with his peripheral numbers. He pitched 180 innings over 32 starts, slightly less than 5.2 innings per start. He threw 3170 pitches over those 32 starts or right at 99 pitches per start. So at 99 pitches per start he's not getting you out of the 6th inning. Steele... 170.1 innings over 30 starts or just over 5.2 innings per start. 2682 total pitches in those 30 starts or 89 pitches per start. Again, Steele is not getting you out of the 6th inning in his starts, but he's getting further per start than Snell and using 10 less pitches. The AL Cy Young winner, Gerrit Cole: 209 innings over 33 starts or 6.1 innings per start, he's getting you out of the 6th inning. 3286 pitches across those 33 starts or 99.5 pitches per start. So about the same number of pitches per start than Snell, but he's giving you 2 more outs. Jordan Montgomery: 188.2 innings over 32 starts or not quite 6 innings per start. 2923 pitches over those 32 starts or 91 pitches per start. So he's giving you 1 more out per start than Snell, and using about 9 pitches less to do so. I agree that pitching is just going to get more expensive, but I'm not sure Snell is someone I want to hang my hat on. Yep, Snell will definitely average less than 6 innings per start. Quality innings but won't get length from him. This is where I want the Cubs to flex their financial muscles and act like the only big market team in the division. Would feel much more comfortable with Snell versus over extending someone like Assad who I think will end get lit up like a Christmas tree. But very unlikely sign of course, fantasy land. Only 5 pitchers threw over 200 innings last year so that's more of an indictment on how teams handle their starters than the pitchers themselves. Because of this, the salaries of relief pitchers has gone up. |
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Post by irishcubfan on Feb 6, 2024 15:13:35 GMT -5
Yep, Snell will definitely average less than 6 innings per start. Quality innings but won't get length from him. This is where I want the Cubs to flex their financial muscles and act like the only big market team in the division. Would feel much more comfortable with Snell versus over extending someone like Assad who I think will end get lit up like a Christmas tree. But very unlikely sign of course, fantasy land. Only 5 pitchers threw over 200 innings last year so that's more of an indictment on how teams handle their starters than the pitchers themselves. Because of this, the salaries of relief pitchers has gone up. True, only a very few are allowed to pitch a third time through the order and God forbid someone break the 100 pitch mark. |
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Post by TheChico on Feb 6, 2024 15:51:58 GMT -5
I got them around a 78-82 win team at moment.
If this is the team on opening day then Jed failed.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Feb 6, 2024 16:30:54 GMT -5
I got them around a 78-82 win team at moment. If this is the team on opening day then Jed failed. We really don't know what kind of budget the Ricketts family gave Hoyer. Sure Tom said Jed will have money to spend but how much was never disclosed. And who has the final say when it comes down to signing someone? |
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Post by TheChico on Feb 6, 2024 16:45:09 GMT -5
I got them around a 78-82 win team at moment. If this is the team on opening day then Jed failed. We really don't know what kind of budget the Ricketts family gave Hoyer. Sure Tom said Jed will have money to spend but how much was never disclosed. And who has the final say when it comes down to signing someone? My bet since the way Jed/Hawkins have handled the offseason that the Luxury tax at $237 million is the max hard line budget, so I see them just signing Bellinger and they are done if they can not make other trades. |
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 16:50:10 GMT -5
I got them around a 78-82 win team at moment. If this is the team on opening day then Jed failed. We really don't know what kind of budget the Ricketts family gave Hoyer. Sure Tom said Jed will have money to spend but how much was never disclosed. And who has the final say when it comes down to signing someone? Well Jed and Hawkins said they were in about the 4-5th inning before they signed Neris. I doubt Neris took them to the 9th and they've flat out said they want to add a bat to hit RHP so I would bet they are not done . I'm sure Ricketts has the final say on any long term deal but I've never heard him getting in the way of anybody they wanted to sign. |
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 16:51:35 GMT -5
We really don't know what kind of budget the Ricketts family gave Hoyer. Sure Tom said Jed will have money to spend but how much was never disclosed. And who has the final say when it comes down to signing someone? My bet since the way Jed/Hawkins have handled the offseason that the Luxury tax at $237 million is the max hard line budget, so I see them just signing Bellinger and they are done if they can not make other trades. That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. |
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