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Post by TheChico on Feb 6, 2024 18:21:04 GMT -5
My bet since the way Jed/Hawkins have handled the offseason that the Luxury tax at $237 million is the max hard line budget, so I see them just signing Bellinger and they are done if they can not make other trades. That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. If they are unwilling to go over it now and cannot see them being open minded at the deadline, I think this will just be a hard cap going forward.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 6, 2024 18:52:07 GMT -5
That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. If they are unwilling to go over it now and cannot see them being open minded at the deadline, I think this will just be a hard cap going forward. Financially that would make no sense so I don’t believe that for a minute in regards to that being the Ricketts philosophy. He has a brilliant business mind & won’t hesitate to pay a tax to field another winner especially after tasting the first one..
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 19:20:12 GMT -5
That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. If they are unwilling to go over it now and cannot see them being open minded at the deadline, I think this will just be a hard cap going forward. I don't see it that way . Ricketts has been pretty open in saying he has no problem going over the luxury tax, so I don't see where you are coming up with a hard cap ? He's alluded to avoiding the stiffer penalties and not doing it for a run of multiple years that take them into losing draft picks and stiffer penalties. So like in the past they've done it and then after 1-2 seasons re-set and thats what I see them doing going forward. So in a season like 2024 where contending is not a given I don't think they'd want to go over to start a season but he would let Jed add at the deadline if they are contending.
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Post by TheChico on Feb 6, 2024 20:31:31 GMT -5
If they are unwilling to go over it now and cannot see them being open minded at the deadline, I think this will just be a hard cap going forward. I don't see it that way . Ricketts has been pretty open in saying he has no problem going over the luxury tax, so I don't see where you are coming up with a hard cap ? He's alluded to avoiding the stiffer penalties and not doing it for a run of multiple years that take them into losing draft picks and stiffer penalties. So like in the past they've done it and then after 1-2 seasons re-set and thats what I see them doing going forward. So in a season like 2024 where contending is not a given I don't think they'd want to go over to start a season but he would let Jed add at the deadline if they are contending. Yeah... probaly right. May I put way to high expectation this offseason to go all in but maybe I was being unrealistic in the first place.
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Post by TheChico on Feb 6, 2024 20:33:48 GMT -5
If they are unwilling to go over it now and cannot see them being open minded at the deadline, I think this will just be a hard cap going forward. Financially that would make no sense so I don’t believe that for a minute in regards to that being the Ricketts philosophy. He has a brilliant business mind & won’t hesitate to pay a tax to field another winner especially after tasting the first one.. I cannot argue with that I just want some baseball to start lol
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Post by batman66 on Feb 6, 2024 20:49:28 GMT -5
I don't see it that way . Ricketts has been pretty open in saying he has no problem going over the luxury tax, so I don't see where you are coming up with a hard cap ? He's alluded to avoiding the stiffer penalties and not doing it for a run of multiple years that take them into losing draft picks and stiffer penalties. So like in the past they've done it and then after 1-2 seasons re-set and thats what I see them doing going forward. So in a season like 2024 where contending is not a given I don't think they'd want to go over to start a season but he would let Jed add at the deadline if they are contending. Yeah... probaly right. May I put way to high expectation this offseason to go all in but maybe I was being unrealistic in the first place. I think if they were able to land Ohtani , then they might have gone all in now and could/would have gone over to start the season , but in a season where again you hope to contend but aren't totally sure you will you take the conservative approach and stay under , atleast to start the season. I mean Ricketts really hasn't dodged the question. “If we see an opportunity or it’s the right time to go over for a year or two, we’ll have the ability to do that,” Ricketts said. “But we’ll manage (the luxury) year-to-year. I’m not going to promise top five or anything like that, but we will definitely put the resources we have on the field.”I think the implications there are, (1) the Cubs don’t want to go over the luxury tax three years in a row (which was true under the last CBA, too, because the taxes escalated AND your revenue-sharing refund drops (2) Ricketts is standing by his previous comments that whatever comes into the organization, after expenses, goes to baseball operations to spend as they see fit.
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Post by 20kman on Feb 6, 2024 22:43:10 GMT -5
We are projected at 80.2 wins. Thoughts? Right now, on paper, with zero contributions from our farm system, I would agree. But we have a lot of talent that is ready or will be ready to contribute at some point this year. That is the future. That is what can push this team over the hump this year. To me, that's a lot more exciting than winning a division on paper. Let's see what these guys can do.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Feb 7, 2024 3:39:54 GMT -5
My bet since the way Jed/Hawkins have handled the offseason that the Luxury tax at $237 million is the max hard line budget, so I see them just signing Bellinger and they are done if they can not make other trades. That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. The Cubs may make a trade or two around the deadline but will it be for a player who can have an immediate impact on the team? And will he be a player on an expiring contract? I'm not a fan of trading away prospects and getting nothing in return for the following season. It's been a long time since the Cubs were involved in a "block-buster" trade and these little trades that Hoyer makes haven't produced shit and have cost the Cubs a number of prospects. Is Hoyer being handcuffed by Ricketts? I'm starting to believe Jed isn't the reason the Cubs aren't more involved in trades or the free agent market.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 7, 2024 8:03:08 GMT -5
That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. The Cubs may make a trade or two around the deadline but will it be for a player who can have an immediate impact on the team? And will he be a player on an expiring contract? I'm not a fan of trading away prospects and getting nothing in return for the following season. It's been a long time since the Cubs were involved in a "block-buster" trade and these little trades that Hoyer makes haven't produced shit and have cost the Cubs a number of prospects. Is Hoyer being handcuffed by Ricketts? I'm starting to believe Jed isn't the reason the Cubs aren't more involved in trades or the free agent market. The trade for Chapman on an expiring contract worked out pretty okay in my book.. Jed hasn’t been in a position to trade prospects for expiring deals yet because they haven’t been in position to win but they soon should be.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 7, 2024 9:20:08 GMT -5
Sooooo much back peddling in this thread from the end of the season to today, is funny.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 7, 2024 9:30:48 GMT -5
Sooooo much back peddling in this thread from the end of the season to today, is funny. Can you provide an example of this back peddling or is this just rhetoric?
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 7, 2024 9:40:19 GMT -5
Nah, it's a rabbit hole I'm not going down again. Hand full of posters here pivot so much from month to month, season to season. It's a circle argument. I'm good. This is a 77 win team max IMO with this current roster. If no other changes I think this is a 74 win team.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 7, 2024 10:05:14 GMT -5
Sooooo much back peddling in this thread from the end of the season to today, is funny. No back peddling that I see. People get excited and expect things and that can change with what is going on. That's called reality and adjusting to facts and circumstances , not back peddling. Backpeddling is what you did in the "contender" thread , sorry that wasn't backpeddling, that was a free fall change of definition , not back peddling. People expected them to keep moving forward and take a leap from last years progression so they were at a high point after the season in hopes of what they would do for 2024 , by the way I'm pretty sure you were predicting about the same amount of wins for last season as you are now ..........how'd that work out for you ? I don't see ANYBODY in this thread expecting them to have a great record in 2024 ......or did I miss something? I said which I'm sure you probably skipped right by that if they don't sign Bellinger that they stumbled backwards and things could go either way with the Pecota projections , could be better , could be worse. Haven't seen one person happy with the roster as it stands , all I've seen is people believing the roster will change and additions will still be made.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 7, 2024 10:17:38 GMT -5
That's pretty much how I see it , the 237 is the line for now , but if they are contending and have needs he will let him go over for the deadline. The Cubs may make a trade or two around the deadline but will it be for a player who can have an immediate impact on the team? And will he be a player on an expiring contract? I'm not a fan of trading away prospects and getting nothing in return for the following season. It's been a long time since the Cubs were involved in a "block-buster" trade and these little trades that Hoyer makes haven't produced shit and have cost the Cubs a number of prospects. Is Hoyer being handcuffed by Ricketts? I'm starting to believe Jed isn't the reason the Cubs aren't more involved in trades or the free agent market. Most guys traded at the deadline are the types who are on expiring contracts, that's how baseball deadlines have worked for years in most deals. Either that or teams having fire sales and you might be able to nab a guy with some years of control. It depends what the teams needs are at the time and who fits . The "blockbusters" are also hit or miss, those are the ones you can often get burned on because you have to give up the elite young talent . I'd categorize a few as a blockbuster , Chapman , maybe Davis and certainly the Q trade. And since then , they really haven't been in the position to make one , they were on the selling end a couple years and did anybody really make any last season ? I can't really remember, but Candelario (certainly no block buster) was thought of as the biggest bat traded.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 7, 2024 10:30:35 GMT -5
It's more than the PECOTA predictions. This team is operating exactly like I said it was 3 years ago. So they win 83 games in 2023 and now it's, "I don't see ANYBODY in this thread expecting them to have a great record in 2024". That wasn't the tone in November. So the Cubs are going to go backwards and go 3 of 4 years under .500?
So you admit, they're throwing away 2024 and will focus on 2025? Maybe 2026? Isn't this what I have been saying since 2021? Hmmmmmmm
EDIT: The sad thing is, the Cubs had a really good opportunity to build on the success of 2023 and didn't, other than getting Counsell. They could have accelerated the window and didn't. Now it's back to hoping the kids can play. We'll see.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 7, 2024 10:58:52 GMT -5
It's more than the PECOTA predictions. This team is operating exactly like I said it was 3 years ago. So they win 83 games in 2023 and now it's, "I don't see ANYBODY in this thread expecting them to have a great record in 2024". That wasn't the tone in November. So the Cubs are going to go backwards and go 3 of 4 years under .500? So you admit, they're throwing away 2024 and will focus on 2025? Maybe 2026? Isn't this what I have been saying since 2021? Hmmmmmmm EDIT: The sad thing is, the Cubs had a really good opportunity to build on the success of 2023 and didn't, other than getting Counsell. They could have accelerated the window and didn't. Now it's back to hoping the kids can play. We'll see. I get the frustration . I don't see anybody saying they are going to go backwards and go 3-4 years of under .500 , where the fuck is that even coming from and doesn't make any sense at all to even say . Hell if they did not sign another major league player for the next 2-3-4 years and just went with the farm for the next 2-3-4 years I don't think they'd be a team that stays under .500, there is a shit ton of talent here. ...........but hey they aren't proven big name superstars seeking decade long commitments, so they aren't shit in your eyes. I said IF , that's IF they don't sign Belly , or pull a trade out of their ass for a power lefty bat then I feel they did stumble backwards a bit and did not capitalize on the nice progress they made moving forward last season. But HERE IS THE THING ......THEY ARE NOT DONE WITH THE OFF SEASON. You act like they said this is it, this is what we are going with , lets GO ! That is the opposite of what they said they plan/want to do
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 7, 2024 12:09:00 GMT -5
80 wins is UNDER.500... they were under .500 in 2021 and 2022. That would be 3 of 4 years. They should NOT be taking a step back in 2024.
Talent has to produce for the next 2-3-4 years. We'll see.
"You act like they said this is it, this is what we are going with , lets GO !"
I'm acting like what's exactly on the roster right now.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 7, 2024 12:34:55 GMT -5
80 wins is UNDER.500... they were under .500 in 2021 and 2022. That would be 3 of 4 years. They should NOT be taking a step back in 2024. Talent has to produce for the next 2-3-4 years. We'll see. "You act like they said this is it, this is what we are going with , lets GO !" I'm acting like what's exactly on the roster right now. I thought you were talking future when you said "So the Cubs are going to go backwards and go 3 of 4 years under .500" I read it as 3 or 4 years , thinking you thought the next 3-4 would be under .500. my bad. 100% agree, they should NOT be taking a step back in 2024 and as of right now , today 12:32 eastern time , yes it looks like they have. But I don't think they are done , they said they are not done or close to being done so I believe that they will still add to the roster.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 7, 2024 12:52:58 GMT -5
80 wins is UNDER.500... they were under .500 in 2021 and 2022. That would be 3 of 4 years. They should NOT be taking a step back in 2024. Talent has to produce for the next 2-3-4 years. We'll see. "You act like they said this is it, this is what we are going with , lets GO !" I'm acting like what's exactly on the roster right now. Let me ask you this , if they sign Bellinger, does your perception change ? Would you consider it taking a step forward now? I would , I would not be overjoyed with the off season , but an off season where they retained Belly, added Imanaga and Busch and Neris and to me most importantl move Counsell would be a solid off season. I never had the hope of Ohtani or Soto , so maybe my expectations were not as high. People keep ignoring that it's possible Counsell alone could make this team better. No dissing Rossy , I was a fan and think he will be a very good manager one day , but Counsell is on another level right now.
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Post by irishcubfan on Feb 7, 2024 13:24:48 GMT -5
80 wins is UNDER.500... they were under .500 in 2021 and 2022. That would be 3 of 4 years. They should NOT be taking a step back in 2024. Talent has to produce for the next 2-3-4 years. We'll see. "You act like they said this is it, this is what we are going with , lets GO !" I'm acting like what's exactly on the roster right now. Let me ask you this , if they sign Bellinger, does your perception change ? Would you consider it taking a step forward now? I would , I would not be overjoyed with the off season , but an off season where they retained Belly, added Imanaga and Busch and Neris and to me most importantl move Counsell would be a solid off season. I never had the hope of Ohtani or Soto , so maybe my expectations were not as high. People keep ignoring that it's possible Counsell alone could make this team better. No dissing Rossy , I was a fan and think he will be a very good manager one day , but Counsell is on another level right now. Ross managed 546 games with one playoff team in a shortened year where that team was struggling at seasons end. One day he will become a very good manager? People are acting like Ross was a rookie manager throughout his entire tenure. The Cubs were 76-64 at one point last year and failed to make the playoffs with a cupcake schedule and not many quality teams in the league. Ran relievers into the ground, failed to try different things to counter the slide. Waited way too long to try different lineups. Example, after one game Ross admitted to knowing Leiter was gassed prior to having him pitch and still chose him over rested relievers. Relievers who did not lose their one pitch that may have made them effective. That example is just stubbornness, stupidity, and lack of trust of others on the team. Ross may have cultivated a good clubhouse, may have, but left a lot to be desired. Ross presented as or was likeable but need more from a manager.
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