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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 26, 2022 17:39:21 GMT -5
I’m going 2027, maybe 2026. Now that they’re about to shed the team of the last of the remaining players (Happ & Willy), 2023 will be the start of the climb. The focus will be on bringing up young talent and signing established vets to help. This is going to be a long 4 years 😬
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Post by TheChico on Jul 26, 2022 17:57:40 GMT -5
I will to the absolute not possible at all route per Steve and I will say they will be in consideration for the Wildcard in 2024 and will go all in 2025 (when they sign Soto =P).
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Post by batman66 on Jul 26, 2022 18:25:29 GMT -5
I’m going 2027, maybe 2026. Now that they’re about to shed the team of the last of the remaining players (Happ & Willy), 2023 will be the start of the climb. The focus will be on bringing up young talent and signing established vets to help. This is going to be a long 4 years 😬 Hell if they had only extended KB then you would not be making posts like this. Those 5 homers would have had the Cubs in contention for sure. Oh wait , did you hear the news , he didn't play again last night , foot discomfort , probably had a pebble in his cleat and he's being evaluated today. To answer your question I will say 2024. I'm not sure why you feel it's going to take as long as last time , right now one year into it they already have added to the farm what it took them 3-4 years into it last time to add and you seem to totally ignore that for some reason , so the farm is already at a stage where it is fully stocked and there is no need to tank seasons to stock it like they did last time. This winter they will add some key long term pieces probably at least one for the rotation and some possible flip candidates as all teams should but I feel this off season is more about further assembling a team to try to play winning baseball in 2023 than it is about adding flip pieces for stocking the farm. I think right now they are at about the stage they were in 2014 , you seem for some reason to have them at the 2011 stage which is ridiculous if you are paying any attention to the current state of the farm system. |
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Post by trav768 on Jul 26, 2022 18:54:15 GMT -5
does anyone really know? of course not. teams have gone from worst to first and first to worst plenty of times. if memory serves me right, experts and us on old board didn't think Cubs would compete in 2015. well they did compete in 2015. speeding up the process of calling guys up from minors to big club. team went out and won 97 games and reached NLCS. course we all know what happened in 2016. hell, before 2015 season. Lester was a pipe dream. yeah he had connections cause of Theo and Jed, but still, why would Lester sign with a team still in rebuild mode?
I not saying 2023 be like 2015. in a sense, we've already started seeing some of talent being called up. Brandon Hughes and Christopher Morel. Morel and Hughes have been excellent. Hoerner has turn the corner and is having a great year. Suzuki will have a year of MLB experience under his belt and is doing well this season. Keegan Thompson and Steele have done decent job in rotation. Velazquez is starting to figure it out. that's 7 guys can build around right there. sorry if I've missed any others, but this rebuild won't take as long. 2023 will be a huge improvement in my eyes. as stated by a few I think 2024
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Post by kfidd on Jul 26, 2022 20:04:49 GMT -5
I will to the absolute not possible at all route per Steve and I will say they will be in consideration for the Wildcard in 2024 and will go all in 2025 (when they sign Soto =P). I think this is hard to argue with. Playoff contenders by 2024, World Series contenders by 2025. |
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jul 27, 2022 0:37:26 GMT -5
Rebuild: 2nd half of 2021, 2022
Flirt with contention: 2023
Contend: 2024
Dominate: 2025, 2026
We'll see new guys in the 2nd half. Guys will start gutting excited and players are gonna go off.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jul 27, 2022 5:27:45 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 7:44:24 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. How is trading Contreras and Happ and relief pitchers on one year contracts going to add years to the rebuild? The next foundation of a core is already in place and the farm system more than likely is top 5 in the game at seasons end. |
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Post by kfidd on Jul 27, 2022 8:10:50 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. I disagree. That’s not to say that there isn’t a window where Contreras and/or Happer couldn’t be a part of the next contending Cubs team, but those two aren’t making it happen any sooner than if we got younger, more controllable parts instead. Build towards ‘23/24 and beyond. |
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Post by patriot544 on Jul 27, 2022 9:12:51 GMT -5
I personally would love to see the cubs do what the Yankees did to them in 2016. Trade contreras to get younger help just to sign him back as a Free Agent. I don’t think this will happen but I do wish this happened more often. Although I think it’s important to look at the players we traded and what they are doing this year. I think it shows our front office knows more than what others believe.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 9:23:12 GMT -5
I personally would love to see the cubs do what the Yankees did to them in 2016. Trade contreras to get younger help just to sign him back as a Free Agent. I don’t think this will happen but I do wish this happened more often. Although I think it’s important to look at the players we traded and what they are doing this year. I think it shows our front office knows more than what others believe. I don't think it will happen either because they've shown no signs of any interest to extend him. But he's made two interesting comments lately. At the all star game he said he doesn't think this will be his last all star game in a Cubs uniform. And after the first game of the Pirates he was asked why he got emotional and he said “It’s been a tough couple days for me,” Contreras said. “I’m trying just to appreciate everything that Wrigley Field is and thinking about all the memories that I have here since 2016, from 2009 to now. It’s probably my — probably not, I don’t know — but probably my last homestand with the fans this year. It’s tough. It’s really tough. ... Knowing everything that’s happening, I knew it could get to me at some point. I wish this day never came, but it’s about business. I understand that. I respect that. I love my team.” The "last homestand with the fans THIS YEAR" The "this year" is what I question. |
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 9:33:00 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. I disagree. That’s not to say that there isn’t a window where Contreras and/or Happer couldn’t be a part of the next contending Cubs team, but those two aren’t making it happen any sooner than if we got younger, more controllable parts instead. Build towards ‘23/24 and beyond. I don't get some people's views on this. Contreras , for whatever reason they don't seem to want him as part of the future since he was never offered an extension despite him saying he'd be open to one. So from that , I accepted that he'll be traded and right now it would be idiotic not to trade him with how desperate some contenders need a catcher. Happ , sure he could be part of the 2023 team since he's still under contract and beyond if they want to extend him , but where does he fit in the beyond part ? The future OF looks like it's going to be Brennan Davis, Pete Crow-Armstrong and Suzuki and they also have Alcantara, Caissie, Velazquez , Morel , Pinango , and I could keep going . And Happ right now from everything we are hearing has immense interest and his trade value is probably at it's peak , so why miss this opportunity to get the best you can for him since he really doesn't fit into their future. I get it , that people hate to see long time Cubs go , but some of the same people complaining about the Cubs letting them go , were complaining that they were holding onto the core for too long . |
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Post by cubbies85 on Jul 27, 2022 10:21:03 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 10:37:02 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. I hear you , but I think this is going to be only 2 years of misery and the third will be a trasition year into getting back to winning baseball. And another thing , your example Yankees, Dodgers, RedSox , Cardinals , all mighty fine organizations and always seem to have a good team . But Yankees last won a WS in 2009 , so it's been 13 years , Dodgers the 2020 short season Covid WS that to me just doesn't mean the same and yes I would say that if the Cubs won it , even when you do a google search what often comes up was last time they won one 1998, Red Sox last won a WS in 2013 , so 9 years ago the Cardinals in 2006 , so 16 years ago . So I don't think it's all that horrible to go through a few miserable years if you end up winning a WS out of it. The other teams have faired no better in winning one in the last 13 or so years than the Cubs and the Dodgers and often times the Yankees have spent ridiculous money trying to do it. |
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Post by cfin on Jul 27, 2022 10:42:55 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. I disagree. That’s not to say that there isn’t a window where Contreras and/or Happer couldn’t be a part of the next contending Cubs team, but those two aren’t making it happen any sooner than if we got younger, more controllable parts instead. Build towards ‘23/24 and beyond. Contreras obviously isn't a part of the next contending team, seeing as how he's a free agent at the end of the year anyway. Happ will be a free agent after next year, so technically that would mean he could be a part of the next contending team... if that team was next year.
Depending on who you specifically put into the mantle of defining the "old core," Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo (Schwarber?) all of those players largely peaked several years ago in a Cubs uniform and went downhill after that. Contreras doesn't really fit that mold. He's largely been consistent from year to year, although his peak has been no where close to the peaks of Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. That is where the argument for keeping (resigning, signing to an extension) has some worth.
The issue I have with Contreras is that I just really don't like him at catcher. I mean he's fine defensively, blocking balls in the dirt, handling bunts or slow rollers. His caught stealing percentage doesn't appear to line up with the arm strength that he's got. But mostly it's the pitch handling. Whether you want to call it pitch framing, pitch calling, or whatever. It just seems to me that pitchers perform better when someone else is behind the plate. It's a huge benefit to the pitchers to have a receiver that you want to pitch to. The offense that Contreras provides there just doesn't seem to outweigh the detriment put on the pitchers.
This is why I'd really like to explore Contreras at other positions. The outfield might be ideal, but the organization is full of outfield prospects. First base fits the most, because that's seemingly a deficiency in the organization, but it wastes his arm. Third base might be an option, although he was moved off of third base in the minors although I'm not sure if that was because of defense or just to provide a better path to the majors. But if you have Contreras at one of these positions, then you instantly have your 3rd string catcher.
Happ... he's done this too many times. He shows promise for a year or half a year and then nothing. Then shows flashes of that promise again... and then nothing. Maybe he really has figured it out this time. But I'd let some other team figure out if that's the case and be happy with the prospect that comes back in a trade.
As for the next contending team... I'll say 2024 but there's a lot of stipulations. The prospects are going to have to continue get better as they move up the system and not hit that AA/AAA wall. The Cubs are going to need to get some infield prospects because I just don't see a lot there. Right now when trying to figure out what the infield will look like in 2024, it's Hoerner and then 3 question marks. Is Morel going to anchor one position or be a super sub everywhere? Is Wisdom going to still be on the team? He doesn't have age on his side, but the level of production and defense he gives you would work just fine in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Madrigal? And you'll note there's not a first basemen listed here... thus Contreras from above.
Pitching also becomes a question mark. How long can Steele continue to last in the rotation with just 2 pitches? Between Kilian, Thompson, and Steele (that 2 pitch question not withstanding) they're probably not ace pitchers, but solid #2/#3 pitchers. But when do they get hit with the inevitable Tommy John surgery? There's some more pitchers further down the pipeline but really too early to determine quality. But 2023 will be a fundamental year to determine that.
Heyward's contract is also off the books after 2023 and the Cubs don't have a lot of money tied up after that. So that pitching question and the infield question could be addressed some what in free agency. I'm generally not a huge fan of signing players to big contracts out of free agency (see Heyward), but with the right player it can work (see Lester). The preference for me would be to use that payroll to sign your own players to extensions. But obviously the player has to perform at a level that warrants an extension AND the player has to want to sign the extension and that doesn't always happen.
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Post by cfin on Jul 27, 2022 10:53:00 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. I think a lot of this goes back to just how poorly the "old core" performed.
I think we all thought Bryant was going to be the key to that "sustained success." Nobody really thought that 2015 and 2016 (maybe 2017, but that was really the beginning of "the numbers look good, but the production ain't there") would be his best years. But it just went downhill from there.
Rizzo's decline probably wasn't as sharp. But outside of 2019 it was a pretty steady decline.
Baez peaked in 2018, so the peak didn't really line up with Bryant and Rizzo, but it never really got any better than that.
The problem was that the front office held on to these players for far too long, thinking that they would eventually get back to the form of their peaks. If Bryant or Rizzo had been traded after 2017, 2018, or 2019 then you would be looking at the prospects gathered in those trades in the majors today (had they panned out). Maybe you have money to explore an extension with Baez or Contreras (or Schwarber).
The rebuild cycle - I blame - largely on the inability for the front office to see the decline in some of these players and insisting on holding on to them for sentimental value.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 11:07:15 GMT -5
I disagree. That’s not to say that there isn’t a window where Contreras and/or Happer couldn’t be a part of the next contending Cubs team, but those two aren’t making it happen any sooner than if we got younger, more controllable parts instead. Build towards ‘23/24 and beyond. Contreras obviously isn't a part of the next contending team, seeing as how he's a free agent at the end of the year anyway. Happ will be a free agent after next year, so technically that would mean he could be a part of the next contending team... if that team was next year.
Depending on who you specifically put into the mantle of defining the "old core," Baez, Bryant, and Rizzo (Schwarber?) all of those players largely peaked several years ago in a Cubs uniform and went downhill after that. Contreras doesn't really fit that mold. He's largely been consistent from year to year, although his peak has been no where close to the peaks of Baez, Bryant and Rizzo. That is where the argument for keeping (resigning, signing to an extension) has some worth.
The issue I have with Contreras is that I just really don't like him at catcher. I mean he's fine defensively, blocking balls in the dirt, handling bunts or slow rollers. His caught stealing percentage doesn't appear to line up with the arm strength that he's got. But mostly it's the pitch handling. Whether you want to call it pitch framing, pitch calling, or whatever. It just seems to me that pitchers perform better when someone else is behind the plate. It's a huge benefit to the pitchers to have a receiver that you want to pitch to. The offense that Contreras provides there just doesn't seem to outweigh the detriment put on the pitchers.
This is why I'd really like to explore Contreras at other positions. The outfield might be ideal, but the organization is full of outfield prospects. First base fits the most, because that's seemingly a deficiency in the organization, but it wastes his arm. Third base might be an option, although he was moved off of third base in the minors although I'm not sure if that was because of defense or just to provide a better path to the majors. But if you have Contreras at one of these positions, then you instantly have your 3rd string catcher.
Happ... he's done this too many times. He shows promise for a year or half a year and then nothing. Then shows flashes of that promise again... and then nothing. Maybe he really has figured it out this time. But I'd let some other team figure out if that's the case and be happy with the prospect that comes back in a trade.
As for the next contending team... I'll say 2024 but there's a lot of stipulations. The prospects are going to have to continue get better as they move up the system and not hit that AA/AAA wall. The Cubs are going to need to get some infield prospects because I just don't see a lot there. Right now when trying to figure out what the infield will look like in 2024, it's Hoerner and then 3 question marks. Is Morel going to anchor one position or be a super sub everywhere? Is Wisdom going to still be on the team? He doesn't have age on his side, but the level of production and defense he gives you would work just fine in the bottom 3rd of the lineup. Madrigal? And you'll note there's not a first basemen listed here... thus Contreras from above.
Pitching also becomes a question mark. How long can Steele continue to last in the rotation with just 2 pitches? Between Kilian, Thompson, and Steele (that 2 pitch question not withstanding) they're probably not ace pitchers, but solid #2/#3 pitchers. But when do they get hit with the inevitable Tommy John surgery? There's some more pitchers further down the pipeline but really too early to determine quality. But 2023 will be a fundamental year to determine that.
Heyward's contract is also off the books after 2023 and the Cubs don't have a lot of money tied up after that. So that pitching question and the infield question could be addressed some what in free agency. I'm generally not a huge fan of signing players to big contracts out of free agency (see Heyward), but with the right player it can work (see Lester). The preference for me would be to use that payroll to sign your own players to extensions. But obviously the player has to perform at a level that warrants an extension AND the player has to want to sign the extension and that doesn't always happen.
I was all with you until you said they need to get some infield prospects. Hoerner and Madrigal are young and just beginning their major league careers and Morel is an option at just about every position. In the system they have Christian Hernandez who has the ability by the time he's called up to be a legit possible top 5 in all of baseball ranked prospect. Triantos will probably be a top 100 ranked guy going into 2023 a guy to really keep an eye on is Kevin Made who is only 19 years old, Ed Howard , don't give up on him , Preciado (Darvish) not having a great season but still a fine prospect, Santana (Darvish) had an off year last season so his stock fell , this season he's hitting .276 with a .368 obp , Chase Strumpf having a fine year , average not great .250, but he has a .388 obp 15 homers and an .874 ops in AA And then there are two guys who were not even on the radar to start 2022 Jake Slaughter who plays 1b, 3b, 2b , between A and AA which he's hitting much better in than he did A , he is hitting .293 with a .396 obp 12 homers and a .937 OPS And perhaps the biggest secret in baseball this season Matt Mervis who went un drafted in 2020 because the draft was only 5 rounds. He plays 1B , and started the season in A ball and is now already in AAA On the season 22 homers 83 rbi's in 84 games , hitting ,309 with a .368 obp and .967 ops |
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Post by TheChico on Jul 27, 2022 11:12:03 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. They should not be rebuilding but that is what happens when you overall fail to develop your own pitching, and really not able to develop any really good prospects after 2016. So right now we are seeing the FO failures catch up to the MLB club. |
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 11:15:08 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. I think a lot of this goes back to just how poorly the "old core" performed.
I think we all thought Bryant was going to be the key to that "sustained success." Nobody really thought that 2015 and 2016 (maybe 2017, but that was really the beginning of "the numbers look good, but the production ain't there") would be his best years. But it just went downhill from there.
Rizzo's decline probably wasn't as sharp. But outside of 2019 it was a pretty steady decline.
Baez peaked in 2018, so the peak didn't really line up with Bryant and Rizzo, but it never really got any better than that.
The problem was that the front office held on to these players for far too long, thinking that they would eventually get back to the form of their peaks. If Bryant or Rizzo had been traded after 2017, 2018, or 2019 then you would be looking at the prospects gathered in those trades in the majors today (had they panned out). Maybe you have money to explore an extension with Baez or Contreras (or Schwarber).
The rebuild cycle - I blame - largely on the inability for the front office to see the decline in some of these players and insisting on holding on to them for sentimental value.
You're last sentence nails it , although I can't really blame the front office for feeling that way . But I don't see it as it being just "sentimental" they truly believed in these guys and thought they still had a further upside and they all pretty much have not shown it . So yes they did hang on to almost all of then too long . And yet we have people who blame where they are right now on not being able to extend any of them , kind or ironic. And had they traded them we'd have people on here going crazy that they traded their core players while still being a contender. We still have some wanting them to keep Contreras and Happ. |
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Post by cfin on Jul 27, 2022 12:44:20 GMT -5
I was all with you until you said they need to get some infield prospects. Hoerner and Madrigal are young and just beginning their major league careers and Morel is an option at just about every position. In the system they have Christian Hernandez who has the ability by the time he's called up to be a legit possible top 5 in all of baseball ranked prospect. Triantos will probably be a top 100 ranked guy going into 2023 a guy to really keep an eye on is Kevin Made who is only 19 years old, Ed Howard , don't give up on him , Preciado (Darvish) not having a great season but still a fine prospect, Santana (Darvish) had an off year last season so his stock fell , this season he's hitting .276 with a .368 obp , Chase Strumpf having a fine year , average not great .250, but he has a .388 obp 15 homers and an .874 ops in AA And then there are two guys who were not even on the radar to start 2022 Jake Slaughter who plays 1b, 3b, 2b , between A and AA which he's hitting much better in than he did A , he is hitting .293 with a .396 obp 12 homers and a .937 OPS And perhaps the biggest secret in baseball this season Matt Mervis who went un drafted in 2020 because the draft was only 5 rounds. He plays 1B , and started the season in A ball and is now already in AAA On the season 22 homers 83 rbi's in 84 games , hitting ,309 with a .368 obp and .967 ops Well, they're all question marks.
I've never been as high on Madrigal as you have been. I haven't seen anything this year to change my mind. But I suppose he could be a piece. I'm just not ready to carve his name in stone.
I was speaking in terms of being competitive in 2024. Triantos right now is still in A ball. Howard is in A ball. Preciado A-ball. Santana A-ball. It's probably a stretch to think that they'll be in the majors by 2024. Could it happen? Sure! But I'm just not sure it's likely. And how many of these are going to hit that AA/AAA wall?
Strumpf I will say is probably the closest to not being a question mark. Depending on what happens with trades this next week, I actually think there's an outside chance we could see Strumpf in the majors this year. But it would probably be more like a Baez 2014 major league debut where he spends the majority of 2023 at AAA. But that would set him on track to be in the majors by 2024.
Slaughters and Mervis, I just don't know if they have to pedigree to be major league starters. Could they be? Sure! But I think they are more likely to be Bote/Rivas major leaguers. Certainly nothing wrong with being wrong about that. But I'm definitely not going to chisel their names in stone for a competitive 2024 team.
That leaves Hoerner.
Depending on how you view Wisdom - and to be clear, he's definitely not to be confused with establishing a future core, but he is serviceable. You could have an infield of Strumpf, Hoerner, Morel, and Wisdom. I'm not sure if that's a competitive team infield. But that's all certainly within the realm of possibilities for what the infield could look like by 2024. And if all of those prospects you mentioned continue to perform like they have so far in AA and AAA, they'll definitely be knocking on the door by mid 2024. I just think that's a high ask.
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