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Post by cubbies85 on Jul 27, 2022 13:02:54 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. I hear you , but I think this is going to be only 2 years of misery and the third will be a trasition year into getting back to winning baseball. And another thing , your example Yankees, Dodgers, RedSox , Cardinals , all mighty fine organizations and always seem to have a good team . But Yankees last won a WS in 2009 , so it's been 13 years , Dodgers the 2020 short season Covid WS that to me just doesn't mean the same and yes I would say that if the Cubs won it , even when you do a google search what often comes up was last time they won one 1998, Red Sox last won a WS in 2013 , so 9 years ago the Cardinals in 2006 , so 16 years ago . So I don't think it's all that horrible to go through a few miserable years if you end up winning a WS out of it. The other teams have faired no better in winning one in the last 13 or so years than the Cubs and the Dodgers and often times the Yankees have spent ridiculous money trying to do it. I hear ya as well. I’m not so much talking about times between world series win but just in general competitiveness and exciting baseball. In the 13 years since Yankees won they only missed the playoffs 3 times and had losing record twice. Last 25 years dodgers had 2 losing seasons and are always gunning for the playoffs. Same goes for Red soxs. They don’t need to go through several years of 60-70 win teams in order to retool, develop players in order to become competitive again. With the Cubs popularity and revenue they should be in that same boat. Mostly just jealousy talking.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 13:45:40 GMT -5
I was all with you until you said they need to get some infield prospects. Hoerner and Madrigal are young and just beginning their major league careers and Morel is an option at just about every position. In the system they have Christian Hernandez who has the ability by the time he's called up to be a legit possible top 5 in all of baseball ranked prospect. Triantos will probably be a top 100 ranked guy going into 2023 a guy to really keep an eye on is Kevin Made who is only 19 years old, Ed Howard , don't give up on him , Preciado (Darvish) not having a great season but still a fine prospect, Santana (Darvish) had an off year last season so his stock fell , this season he's hitting .276 with a .368 obp , Chase Strumpf having a fine year , average not great .250, but he has a .388 obp 15 homers and an .874 ops in AA And then there are two guys who were not even on the radar to start 2022 Jake Slaughter who plays 1b, 3b, 2b , between A and AA which he's hitting much better in than he did A , he is hitting .293 with a .396 obp 12 homers and a .937 OPS And perhaps the biggest secret in baseball this season Matt Mervis who went un drafted in 2020 because the draft was only 5 rounds. He plays 1B , and started the season in A ball and is now already in AAA On the season 22 homers 83 rbi's in 84 games , hitting ,309 with a .368 obp and .967 ops Well, they're all question marks.
I've never been as high on Madrigal as you have been. I haven't seen anything this year to change my mind. But I suppose he could be a piece. I'm just not ready to carve his name in stone.
I was speaking in terms of being competitive in 2024. Triantos right now is still in A ball. Howard is in A ball. Preciado A-ball. Santana A-ball. It's probably a stretch to think that they'll be in the majors by 2024. Could it happen? Sure! But I'm just not sure it's likely. And how many of these are going to hit that AA/AAA wall?
Strumpf I will say is probably the closest to not being a question mark. Depending on what happens with trades this next week, I actually think there's an outside chance we could see Strumpf in the majors this year. But it would probably be more like a Baez 2014 major league debut where he spends the majority of 2023 at AAA. But that would set him on track to be in the majors by 2024.
Slaughters and Mervis, I just don't know if they have to pedigree to be major league starters. Could they be? Sure! But I think they are more likely to be Bote/Rivas major leaguers. Certainly nothing wrong with being wrong about that. But I'm definitely not going to chisel their names in stone for a competitive 2024 team.
That leaves Hoerner.
Depending on how you view Wisdom - and to be clear, he's definitely not to be confused with establishing a future core, but he is serviceable. You could have an infield of Strumpf, Hoerner, Morel, and Wisdom. I'm not sure if that's a competitive team infield. But that's all certainly within the realm of possibilities for what the infield could look like by 2024. And if all of those prospects you mentioned continue to perform like they have so far in AA and AAA, they'll definitely be knocking on the door by mid 2024. I just think that's a high ask.
2023 it could be Nico at short, Madrigal at 2b , Wisdom at 3b if he's still around or Morel could play 3rd or second if Madrigal doesn't come around , or Morel could end up at a lot of positions and Mervis at 1b . Slaughter might be a Bote/Rivas type at best and not a guy you look at as an everyday type because scouts were never huge on his ceiling and I think Strumpf is that type too , but those types can play a valuable role on rosters.. Mervis who really knows, but it's getting real hard to ignore what he's doing and I guess we will get a better read on him now that he's in AAA . I don't know if we should buy into it or not but there has been constant buzz that the Cubs will sign one of the free agent shortstops and most are saying the one they do would be Bogearts because of his ties to Jed. If they do that then it becomes a helluva lot easier to build an infield. I don't see it as a problem area and around 2024-25 guys like Triantos and possibly Christian Hernandez could be ready. They might be after more infielders at the deadline, the word is they really want Baty from the Mets who are reluctant to trade him.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 27, 2022 13:48:16 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. I think a lot of this goes back to just how poorly the "old core" performed.
I think we all thought Bryant was going to be the key to that "sustained success." Nobody really thought that 2015 and 2016 (maybe 2017, but that was really the beginning of "the numbers look good, but the production ain't there") would be his best years. But it just went downhill from there.
Rizzo's decline probably wasn't as sharp. But outside of 2019 it was a pretty steady decline. Baez peaked in 2018, so the peak didn't really line up with Bryant and Rizzo, but it never really got any better than that.
The problem was that the front office held on to these players for far too long, thinking that they would eventually get back to the form of their peaks. If Bryant or Rizzo had been traded after 2017, 2018, or 2019 then you would be looking at the prospects gathered in those trades in the majors today (had they panned out). Maybe you have money to explore an extension with Baez or Contreras (or Schwarber).
The rebuild cycle - I blame - largely on the inability for the front office to see the decline in some of these players and insisting on holding on to them for sentimental value.
You were spot on until your last 2 words. I don't think they held onto them for sentimental value. If you count the core as being Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, (and now Happ) only Rizzo was over 30. When exactly do you think they should have traded them? 2019 when they missed the playoffs? That would be dismantling a WS team in their late 20's. The players under performed and the "waves of talent" didn't come. It wasn't the plan that failed, it was the people, both the players and the front office. I don't believe sentimental value had anything to do with it.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 14:03:17 GMT -5
I hear you , but I think this is going to be only 2 years of misery and the third will be a trasition year into getting back to winning baseball. And another thing , your example Yankees, Dodgers, RedSox , Cardinals , all mighty fine organizations and always seem to have a good team . But Yankees last won a WS in 2009 , so it's been 13 years , Dodgers the 2020 short season Covid WS that to me just doesn't mean the same and yes I would say that if the Cubs won it , even when you do a google search what often comes up was last time they won one 1998, Red Sox last won a WS in 2013 , so 9 years ago the Cardinals in 2006 , so 16 years ago . So I don't think it's all that horrible to go through a few miserable years if you end up winning a WS out of it. The other teams have faired no better in winning one in the last 13 or so years than the Cubs and the Dodgers and often times the Yankees have spent ridiculous money trying to do it. I hear ya as well. I’m not so much talking about times between world series win but just in general competitiveness and exciting baseball. In the 13 years since Yankees won they only missed the playoffs 3 times and had losing record twice. Last 25 years dodgers had 2 losing seasons and are always gunning for the playoffs. Same goes for Red soxs. They don’t need to go through several years of 60-70 win teams in order to retool, develop players in order to become competitive again. With the Cubs popularity and revenue they should be in that same boat. Mostly just jealousy talking. I know , it would be nice to see an 85+ win team year after year competing and no losing seasons. My point was I'd take a couple losing seasons if in every 10 or so there is a championship that foes with it , over all winning seasons and no championship. It's great to be the Dodgers and Yankees but they've literally spent multiple billions in the last 10 years and have one Covid WS between them to show for it. It's great to be able to enjoy most seasons and be buyers and in playoff contention , but it after the Cubs won the WS we ALL on here looked at every season after mainly as a failure because they did not get back and win another. Yet we speak highly of other teams who are ALWAYS in the playoff hunt , but can't win a WS . So how would you feel using the Dodgers like you did as an example , 2 losing seasons in 25 which is great , , yet only a Covid WS . And just in the last 5 years alone they have spent over 1 billion in payroll. I get tired of hearing how STL is such a great organization and never have to rebuild , they are a good organization , but they have not won a WS in 16 years and we complain the Cubs could not get back in 6 . To me it's a bit crazy we rip on our own team for failure to get back and win , yet praise others who fail to get there and win. Red Sox are about the only teams who's been tasting the ultimate success of a fairly regular basis.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 14:06:36 GMT -5
I think a lot of this goes back to just how poorly the "old core" performed.
I think we all thought Bryant was going to be the key to that "sustained success." Nobody really thought that 2015 and 2016 (maybe 2017, but that was really the beginning of "the numbers look good, but the production ain't there") would be his best years. But it just went downhill from there.
Rizzo's decline probably wasn't as sharp. But outside of 2019 it was a pretty steady decline. Baez peaked in 2018, so the peak didn't really line up with Bryant and Rizzo, but it never really got any better than that.
The problem was that the front office held on to these players for far too long, thinking that they would eventually get back to the form of their peaks. If Bryant or Rizzo had been traded after 2017, 2018, or 2019 then you would be looking at the prospects gathered in those trades in the majors today (had they panned out). Maybe you have money to explore an extension with Baez or Contreras (or Schwarber).
The rebuild cycle - I blame - largely on the inability for the front office to see the decline in some of these players and insisting on holding on to them for sentimental value.
You were spot on until your last 2 words. I don't think they held onto them for sentimental value. If you count the core as being Rizzo, Baez, Bryant, Schwarber, Contreras, (and now Happ) only Rizzo was over 30. When exactly do you think they should have traded them? 2019 when they missed the playoffs? That would be dismantling a WS team in their late 20's. The players under performed and the "waves of talent" didn't come. It wasn't the plan that failed, it was the people, both the players and the front office. I don't believe sentimental value had anything to do with it. BINGO ! And they had a TSUNAMI , pretty much one big wave that came and that was it . This is why I like what they are doing this time , it seems like every season with the depth of prospects they have that they should keep trickling in and not all in a 1-2 year span .
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jul 27, 2022 15:56:23 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. How is trading Contreras and Happ and relief pitchers on one year contracts going to add years to the rebuild? The next foundation of a core is already in place and the farm system more than likely is top 5 in the game at seasons end. The foundation core that Cubs had back in 2016 underachieved when that all important veteran presence left. The value players like Lester, Lackey, Fowler, Ross, Zobrist, Montero and Heyward can't be under-estimated. And that's true now. The Cubs should be building around Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki and Morel through the minor league system, trades or free agency. You allow young players to progress without rushing them. Success in the minors doesn't guarantee success in the majors. What's happened to Alzolay, Amaya, Marquez and Davis shows how quickly things can change.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 27, 2022 16:07:34 GMT -5
How is trading Contreras and Happ and relief pitchers on one year contracts going to add years to the rebuild? The next foundation of a core is already in place and the farm system more than likely is top 5 in the game at seasons end. The foundation core that Cubs had back in 2016 underachieved when that all important veteran presence left. The value players like Lester, Lackey, Fowler, Ross, Zobrist, Montero and Heyward can't be under-estimated. And that's true now. The Cubs should be building around Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki and Morel through the minor league system, trades or free agency. You allow young players to progress without rushing them. Success in the minors doesn't guarantee success in the majors. What's happened to Alzolay, Amaya, Marquez and Davis shows how quickly things can change. For some reasoson they don't love Willy since and extension was never offered and Happ although he's having a fine season he's probably been too inconsistent for their liking and they have a LOT of OF prospects already so it makes total sense to trade him when his value is probably higher than ever. So building around them to me doesn't make a lot of sense. Willy i would not have minded seeing them extend him and be part what they build around, but Happ when you have Davis, Suzuki, Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara, Caissie, Canario, Morel, Pinango , Velazquez it just doesn't make sense to extend him. Sure none of them are proven yet , but he's not exactly been Mr Consistent although he finally may be settling into being the player he is.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 29, 2022 9:19:58 GMT -5
If Hoyer is bound and determined to purge the roster again, I believe it will add years to the rebuild. How is trading Contreras and Happ and relief pitchers on one year contracts going to add years to the rebuild? The next foundation of a core is already in place and the farm system more than likely is top 5 in the game at seasons end. they’re not even above A ball, why do you keep ignoring that ?
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 29, 2022 9:20:40 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. have we ever seen the Cardinals rebuild? Shit, they’re about to land Soto lol
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Post by kfidd on Jul 29, 2022 9:43:25 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. have we ever seen the Cardinals rebuild? Shit, they’re about to land Soto lol I think the Cardinals are a great model for a franchise to strive towards where they are consistently competitive, but for all the praises that they get they last won a WS 11 years ago. The Cubs? 6 years ago. There is definitely validity to the previously quoted comment and the Cubs need to do a far better job of maintaining competitive windows. Criticism where criticism is due. But I think they are making some good adjustments on an entire franchise level, which starts in the minor leagues, over the last year plus towards building that. I don’t think anyone likes their current record and how it is all but certain that they won’t sniff a playoff spot this season, but I’m a believer in the track that they are taking at the moment.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 29, 2022 9:47:46 GMT -5
How is trading Contreras and Happ and relief pitchers on one year contracts going to add years to the rebuild? The next foundation of a core is already in place and the farm system more than likely is top 5 in the game at seasons end. they’re not even above A ball, why do you keep ignoring that ? You act like guys spend 2-3 years in every level. A good portion are in high A with a possibilty they finish the season in AA. Once players are in AA the good ones don't usually spend a whole lotta time in AAA. Morel is playing with the Cubs and is a ROY contender , he started the season in AA and got called up from AA m did not see AAA this season. Velazques is playing for the Cubs , he started the season in AA Matt Mervis started the season in A , he's in AAA Kilian came over last season as a guy who started the season in A And if you follow the minors it's been kind of tough for them to promote guys because all the levels are loaded. Next season Davis should be ready , maybe Mervis , so they are already adding 2-3-4 guys a season
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Post by batman66 on Jul 29, 2022 9:53:03 GMT -5
Maybe I’m being sensitive or unrealistic but it bugs the shit out of me that Cubs should be in the same position as the Yankees, dodgers, Red Sox, hell even the Cardinals where they shouldn’t need to go through a 5 year period of absolute misery and garbage before getting a 3-5 window to compete only to repeat the cycle again. have we ever seen the Cardinals rebuild? Shit, they’re about to land Soto lol Who is the last to win a WS ? Cubs or Cardinals ?
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jul 29, 2022 13:27:40 GMT -5
have we ever seen the Cardinals rebuild? Shit, they’re about to land Soto lol Who is the last to win a WS ? Cubs or Cardinals ? Over the years, who's had more opportunities to win a World Series? Cubs or Cardinals? The fact that teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals haven't had success just proves that getting into the playoffs gives you a shot to win it all. The Braves had the 5th best record in the NL last season and won it all. I'm just not a fan of wasting opportunities to compete for a World Series. I look at what the Cub's lineup has now and speculate what this team would look like if they added a hitter or 2 to the lineup. I see a team that could compete in 2023.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 29, 2022 14:22:31 GMT -5
Who is the last to win a WS ? Cubs or Cardinals ? Over the years, who's had more opportunities to win a World Series? Cubs or Cardinals? The fact that teams like the Yankees, Dodgers and Cardinals haven't had success just proves that getting into the playoffs gives you a shot to win it all. The Braves had the 5th best record in the NL last season and won it all. I'm just not a fan of wasting opportunities to compete for a World Series. I look at what the Cub's lineup has now and speculate what this team would look like if they added a hitter or 2 to the lineup. I see a team that could compete in 2023. They have more opportunities, but lately that's been slightly , but they still are not winning it all , so yeah it's great to get to the playoffs , but a lot of people got the mentality on here that the Cubs since 2016 failed because they did not win it all again , yet THE SAME people keep bringing up Yankees, Cardinals etc ..........who have not won it again in an even LONGER period. Past 10 seasons Cubs made the playoffs 5 times and it's 5 of the last 7 and won the WS one time Past 10 seasons Cardinals made the playoffs 6 times , and 4 of the last 7 and did not win a WS Past 10 seasons Yankees made the playoffs 6 times and 6 of the last 7 and did not win a WS
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Post by cfin on Jul 29, 2022 14:25:20 GMT -5
It's just hard for me to get excited over players in A-ball. A-ball is more of a testament to those that aren't going to cut it. If you can't hit, pitch, or play defense in A-ball then you're not going to make it to the majors. You never hear anything about Alejandro Rivero or Matt Warkentin, because they're not hitting in A-ball.
The one saving grace that you have in A-Ball is that you have time to figure it out, but as age starts to creep up on you. If you're approaching your mid 20's and you're still not hitting or being talked about... the odds are just way out of your favor of ever making it to the majors.
The inverse of that is not necessarily true either - just because you're hitting (or pitching or playing defense) in A-ball doesn't mean you'll make it to the majors. But to have any glimmer of hope of making it to the majors you HAVE to be doing that in A-ball.
There is a notorious wall that players/prospects hit in AA because you've weeded out the ones from A-ball that clearly (although I never want to say there is a 0% chance) are not going to make it to the majors.
I do agree though, that players that quickly master AA usually don't spend a lot of time at AAA. AAA is less development and more overflow for the major league club in regards to injuries. Sure prospects can gain some experience hitting against pitchers that have been in the majors, but if those pitchers are in AAA then they're probably not consistent MLB talent. High end opposition talent, from a prospect's perspective, usually peaks in AA. That's why I like to see a prospect have success at the AA level before anointing them as future major leaguers or core pieces.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jul 29, 2022 16:32:36 GMT -5
Red sox won in 2018 btw
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Post by chubbycub on Jul 29, 2022 17:31:16 GMT -5
Man, looking at all these well thought out responses makes mine look lame. And my response is....
Whenever. They will need a good healthy team, they will need to hit on at least half of whatever trades they make and whatever drafting is done will have to be top tier in evaluation and performance. Does this describe Carter Hawkins and Jed Hoyer?
Until then, what's the point? WE JUST DON'T KNOW It's too early to speculate. Just look at the team as is...they aren't even done tearing it apart yet.
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Post by Mike on Jul 29, 2022 18:31:59 GMT -5
Crook/Canario/Velazquez need MLB experience. We already know what Morel (in the OF) and Suzuki have to offer going forward. Mervis is still raking in AAA. I think if we trade Ortega, Rivas can be occasional LF and defensive 1B. He's not a starter.
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Post by fine09 on Jul 29, 2022 19:55:29 GMT -5
The foundation core that Cubs had back in 2016 underachieved when that all important veteran presence left. The value players like Lester, Lackey, Fowler, Ross, Zobrist, Montero and Heyward can't be under-estimated. And that's true now. The Cubs should be building around Contreras, Happ, Hoerner, Suzuki and Morel through the minor league system, trades or free agency. You allow young players to progress without rushing them. Success in the minors doesn't guarantee success in the majors. What's happened to Alzolay, Amaya, Marquez and Davis shows how quickly things can change. For some reasoson they don't love Willy since and extension was never offered and Happ although he's having a fine season he's probably been too inconsistent for their liking and they have a LOT of OF prospects already so it makes total sense to trade him when his value is probably higher than ever. So building around them to me doesn't make a lot of sense. Willy i would not have minded seeing them extend him and be part what they build around, but Happ when you have Davis, Suzuki, Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara, Caissie, Canario, Morel, Pinango , Velazquez it just doesn't make sense to extend him. Sure none of them are proven yet , but he's not exactly been Mr Consistent although he finally may be settling into being the player he is. Thanks got the spot on post here. Saved me a ton of typing..
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Post by Reverency on Jul 29, 2022 19:56:16 GMT -5
We'll be interesting in 2023 Competitive in 2024 Heartbreaking in 2025 (won't win it all) Smiling in 2026 (10th anniversary)
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