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Post by cfin on Aug 17, 2023 16:58:23 GMT -5
Spotrac puts him at 9 yrs, $326,312,657 He's getting far more than that, you have to value him as a hitter AND a pitcher, and the thing is, he's elite at both. So, if he was just a hitter would teams pay him 10/400 like everyone else is getting? If he's a pitcher is he getting 10/300 (Gerrit Cole). So I can see why the math is in the 10/700+ range. I would have to believe that his contract would have some kind of language that effectively changes his salary or provides a team opt-out should he ever stop being a hitter or a pitcher.
If you're going to pay him as a pitcher and as a hitter, then you want some form of compensation should he have to give up one of those in his next contract.
How exactly that language would be worded, I don't know.
I would also somewhat expect the contract to be for an absurd amount of years, 15 to 20 years would not be out of the question. The idea being to just get the AAV down. $700M at 20 years is $35MM AAV. Obviously he's not going to play until he's 50, but the idea would be to get 10 years or so out of him, place him on the restricted list for the last 10 years while continuing to pay him. He ultimately still gets the $700M, the team gets a good 10 years or so out of him, and get the roster spot to replace him after 10 years. Basically treat it as a deferred salary, but doesn't take quite the salary cap space for Competitive Balance Tax purposes.
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Post by TheChico on Aug 17, 2023 17:34:59 GMT -5
Ohtani is going to have a 10+ WAR this season, that is insane!!
He is going to get $500-$600 million this offseason maybe more this offseason.
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Post by holycow23 on Aug 17, 2023 17:57:16 GMT -5
What if Yoshinonu Yamamoto is posted and it is predicted he will be. He is 25 today and has put up superior pitching numbers compared to what Ohtani did at ages 18 to 24 in Japan. His repertoire is comparable to Senga but is considered a notch above stuff wise than Senga. Has that ghost splitter. Also he isnt as wild as Senga averaging 2.1 walks per 9 compared to over 4 for Senga.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 17, 2023 18:24:34 GMT -5
What if Yoshinonu Yamamoto is posted and it is predicted he will be. He is 25 today and has put up superior pitching numbers compared to what Ohtani did at ages 18 to 24 in Japan. His repertoire is comparable to Senga but is considered a notch above stuff wise than Senga. Has that ghost splitter. Also he isnt as wild as Senga averaging 2.1 walks per 9 compared to over 4 for Senga. Senga is working out pretty well. It really looked like we had a good chance of signing him. Ah well. We have taillon for the comparable contract 😵💫 Npb pitchers seem like they could come over and be a good value for teams, assuming posting fees arent crazy. Id be interested in yamamoto, especially with stroman going into FA and hendricks either being gone or expected to probably regress some.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 17, 2023 18:38:45 GMT -5
He's getting far more than that, you have to value him as a hitter AND a pitcher, and the thing is, he's elite at both. So, if he was just a hitter would teams pay him 10/400 like everyone else is getting? If he's a pitcher is he getting 10/300 (Gerrit Cole). So I can see why the math is in the 10/700+ range. If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400
I hereby officially guesstimate Shohei's future contract to be: 10 years and 360 million
I mean, hell, I know he's Ohtani, but are we really going to break records every offseason for contracts? He's had 3 monster seasons in a row - now, if he only did that for 8 seasons in a row with no sign of slowing down and age 27 signs a deal like Mike Trout - yeah, he would get over a half bill likely. But it's 3 seasons, an injury history, and he's 29.
<<If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400 >> I don't know about that Judge just got 9/360 at age 30 last winter other recent deals Machado 11/350 Lindor 10/341 Seager 10/325
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Post by kfidd on Aug 17, 2023 19:55:59 GMT -5
He's getting far more than that, you have to value him as a hitter AND a pitcher, and the thing is, he's elite at both. So, if he was just a hitter would teams pay him 10/400 like everyone else is getting? If he's a pitcher is he getting 10/300 (Gerrit Cole). So I can see why the math is in the 10/700+ range. I would have to believe that his contract would have some kind of language that effectively changes his salary or provides a team opt-out should he ever stop being a hitter or a pitcher.
If you're going to pay him as a pitcher and as a hitter, then you want some form of compensation should he have to give up one of those in his next contract.
How exactly that language would be worded, I don't know.
I would also somewhat expect the contract to be for an absurd amount of years, 15 to 20 years would not be out of the question. The idea being to just get the AAV down. $700M at 20 years is $35MM AAV. Obviously he's not going to play until he's 50, but the idea would be to get 10 years or so out of him, place him on the restricted list for the last 10 years while continuing to pay him. He ultimately still gets the $700M, the team gets a good 10 years or so out of him, and get the roster spot to replace him after 10 years. Basically treat it as a deferred salary, but doesn't take quite the salary cap space for Competitive Balance Tax purposes.
Creativity in his contract seems the most likely. No one is going to want to take. 50-60m annual tax hit. Except for Cohen perhaps who is willing to both buy free agents as well as prospects. 🙄 Who knows what the final numbers will be but many years of income likely lay ahead for Shohei, regardless of whether he’s actually working or not. I hope the Cubs win the bid.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 17, 2023 19:56:55 GMT -5
What if Yoshinonu Yamamoto is posted and it is predicted he will be. He is 25 today and has put up superior pitching numbers compared to what Ohtani did at ages 18 to 24 in Japan. His repertoire is comparable to Senga but is considered a notch above stuff wise than Senga. Has that ghost splitter. Also he isnt as wild as Senga averaging 2.1 walks per 9 compared to over 4 for Senga. Yamamoto would be a fun gamble for exactly what you said, age and performance. If the Cubs don’t land Ohtani he might be my next favorite pitcher available.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 17, 2023 20:22:34 GMT -5
If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400
I hereby officially guesstimate Shohei's future contract to be: 10 years and 360 million
I mean, hell, I know he's Ohtani, but are we really going to break records every offseason for contracts? He's had 3 monster seasons in a row - now, if he only did that for 8 seasons in a row with no sign of slowing down and age 27 signs a deal like Mike Trout - yeah, he would get over a half bill likely. But it's 3 seasons, an injury history, and he's 29.
<<If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400 >> I don't know about that Judge just got 9/360 at age 30 last winter other recent deals Machado 11/350 Lindor 10/341 Seager 10/325 I think judges deal is pretty comparable to what shoehei me the money is gonna get Judge is the better hitter of the two, but to be fair ohtani is the better pitcher 😉
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 8:02:04 GMT -5
<<If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400 >> I don't know about that Judge just got 9/360 at age 30 last winter other recent deals Machado 11/350 Lindor 10/341 Seager 10/325 I think judges deal is pretty comparable to what shoehei me the money is gonna get Judge is the better hitter of the two, but to be fair ohtani is the better pitcher 😉 Not a chance , as a hitter alone Shohei gets that money , he will get 500+ easily
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 18, 2023 9:33:54 GMT -5
We can't just ignore that Ohtani is also and ACE pitcher. He's getting paid as both. 10/390, no way. 500 million minimum. Granted, he could be valued at 800 million, but if no team offers that he's not going to get it, nor is he going to just quit baseball. I think it ends in the 10/620 range IMO
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 18, 2023 9:35:45 GMT -5
<<If he was just a hitter, teams would not offer him 10/400 >> I don't know about that Judge just got 9/360 at age 30 last winter other recent deals Machado 11/350 Lindor 10/341 Seager 10/325 I think judges deal is pretty comparable to what shoehei me the money is gonna get Judge is the better hitter of the two, but to be fair ohtani is the better pitcher 😉 Judge is a better slugger, barely, Ohtani is the better all around hitter. Judge doesn't even pitch, how can you access the value to be the same when not only does Ohtani pitch, but he's a #1 ACE as well.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 9:56:38 GMT -5
I think judges deal is pretty comparable to what shoehei me the money is gonna get Judge is the better hitter of the two, but to be fair ohtani is the better pitcher 😉 Judge is a better slugger, barely, Ohtani is the better all around hitter. Judge doesn't even pitch, how can you access the value to be the same when not only does Ohtani pitch, but he's a #1 ACE as well. He's not just a slugger and an ace but he will be a marketing gold mine in every aspect possible. Whatever team signs him is selling out season tickets if they aren't already sold out that day.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 9:59:22 GMT -5
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 18, 2023 10:58:46 GMT -5
Judge is a better slugger, barely, Ohtani is the better all around hitter. Judge doesn't even pitch, how can you access the value to be the same when not only does Ohtani pitch, but he's a #1 ACE as well. He's not just a slugger and an ace but he will be a marketing gold mine in every aspect possible. Whatever team signs him is selling out season tickets if they aren't already sold out that day. Someone was on the radio the other day an estimated his marketing value was in the 30-40 million range. That's crazy... imagine paying him 60 million and recooping 40 million, and basically paying a net 20 million to Ohtani
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 11:12:51 GMT -5
He's not just a slugger and an ace but he will be a marketing gold mine in every aspect possible. Whatever team signs him is selling out season tickets if they aren't already sold out that day. Someone was on the radio the other day an estimated his marketing value was in the 30-40 million range. That's crazy... imagine paying him 60 million and recooping 40 million, and basically paying a net 20 million to Ohtani Wow , that's what I mean , as crazy as it sounds for the kind of money a team is going to have to pay him , there is a solid chance the return on that investment is going to be a higher pct than most players and that's why I could see a business man like Rickets realizing it and letting the Cubs go all in. I still don't think they have any chance of luring him out of So Cal though.
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Post by rvn11 on Aug 18, 2023 11:17:37 GMT -5
He's not just a slugger and an ace but he will be a marketing gold mine in every aspect possible. Whatever team signs him is selling out season tickets if they aren't already sold out that day. Someone was on the radio the other day an estimated his marketing value was in the 30-40 million range. That's crazy... imagine paying him 60 million and recooping 40 million, and basically paying a net 20 million to Ohtani I believe that was Kaplan yesterday. Not that they can increase much in ticket sales, but it would probably be a good avenue to launch their standalone streaming that's coming, as well as bringing in some new major sponsors, as well as the Japanese sponsor market. I think those exact numbers were mentioned, 60m salary with about 40m in value added back to the franchise.
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Post by fine09 on Aug 18, 2023 12:36:00 GMT -5
He's not just a slugger and an ace but he will be a marketing gold mine in every aspect possible. Whatever team signs him is selling out season tickets if they aren't already sold out that day. Someone was on the radio the other day an estimated his marketing value was in the 30-40 million range. That's crazy... imagine paying him 60 million and recooping 40 million, and basically paying a net 20 million to Ohtani I still think 11 years & 565 mil - descending amounts 55-54-53-52-51-50 X 6. That way if he only pitches for 5-6 years it’s still doable. Also opt out after year 3 & 4.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 18, 2023 13:15:35 GMT -5
It's obviously not baseless, but there's a lot of hype involved thats putting blinders on our eyes, as usual. But but but, it's Ohtani. Trout. Mookie. Freddy. Seager. Machado. Soto. Correa. Acuna. Tatis. And on and on. And that's how bad decisions get made, thinking each player is a once-in-a-generation talent, and even if they are, there's an entire team to build and Ohtani is quite literally coming from a perfect example of how it's not about building a star player, it's about building a team.
Giving Ohtani 700+ (was it 790 that I saw on here before?) makes no sense on the field. For marketing, maybe, but not on the field.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 14:21:19 GMT -5
It's obviously not baseless, but there's a lot of hype involved thats putting blinders on our eyes, as usual. But but but, it's Ohtani. Trout. Mookie. Freddy. Seager. Machado. Soto. Correa. Acuna. Tatis. And on and on. And that's how bad decisions get made, thinking each player is a once-in-a-generation talent, and even if they are, there's an entire team to build and Ohtani is quite literally coming from a perfect example of how it's not about building a star player, it's about building a team.
Giving Ohtani 700+ (was it 790 that I saw on here before?) makes no sense on the field. For marketing, maybe, but not on the field.
But he will be signed for what he can give you on the field and marketing , and that's what makes him even more of a unicorn than the hitter/pitcher thing. A guy like Correa for example , usually a great player (not so much this year) but he's pretty much just a giy you're giving that money to for his on field , sure ticket sales might have spiked because people get excited and think the team will be better , but he's not among the top 20 selling jerseys, he's not really gaining you much marketing wise so your return is mostly what he gives you on the field . Ohtani and all the hype surrounding his free agency , he's going to severly spike all the types of marketing revenue the team makes to probably unprecedented levels , he's been #2 in jersey sales, sure to be #1 in the new uniform . So if you are paying him 5-6-7 hundred million you are getting a solid pct of that back. Paying a guy like Correa 2-3 hundred million you're not getting a solid portion back. But you're right , it's about building a TEAM , so he alone is not a savior , but on the right team he can be a difference maker. And although we all feel the ultimate goal of a team is to win a WS , we know the ultimate goal of the owners is to make money while hopefully winning which usually leads to more money in many ways and Ohtani is going to be a cash cow to the team that signs him.
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Post by TheChico on Aug 24, 2023 0:24:30 GMT -5
Ohtani tore his UCL and will not pitch for the rest of the season. Highly likely will need TJ surgery and will get a 2nd opinion. This will be his 2nd if it happens.
This really sucks overall just in baseball in general and he will get paid this offseason but this likely pivots the Cubs FO and ownership to do whatever it takes to bring Bellinger back I would assume but could be wrong.
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