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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 15, 2023 11:16:11 GMT -5
Cubs Payroll ranks
17 - 8TH (92 wins) 18 - 4TH (95 wins) 19 - 2ND (84 wins) 20 - 6TH (60 wins COVID, won the division) 21 - 15TH (71 wins) 22 - 14TH (74 wins) 23 - 12TH (TBD wins)
Like I said, if the Cubs pass on Belli and Ohtani and rely on the roster for 2024 and call-ups, that ranking will dip in the upper teens, maybe low 20's, lower half of MLB. Unfendable. I never ever ask for the Cubs to spend stupidly, but to win in the MLB you need superstar players that fill holes. If Belli and Ohtani are "priced out" then that's on Tommy because both of those guys fill needs in 2024.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 15, 2023 12:19:51 GMT -5
Cubs Payroll ranks 17 - 8TH (92 wins) 18 - 4TH (95 wins) 19 - 2ND (84 wins) 20 - 6TH (60 wins COVID, won the division) 21 - 15TH (71 wins) 22 - 14TH (74 wins) 23 - 12TH (TBD wins) Like I said, if the Cubs pass on Belli and Ohtani and rely on the roster for 2024 and call-ups, that ranking will dip in the upper teens, maybe low 20's, lower half of MLB. Unfendable. I never ever ask for the Cubs to spend stupidly, but to win in the MLB you need superstar players that fill holes. If Belli and Ohtani are "priced out" then that's on Tommy because both of those guys fill needs in 2024. in '24, sure. How about iin '30?
We haven't been a lower half spender in any of those years listed and it would be shocking if we ended up not spending any money this offseason. No one thinks we're going to "hold tight" this offseason just so "tommy" can be cheap. *sigh*
I remember going to a game a couple years back. "Tommy" and Jed were walking around a lot and were sitting up near the catcher in the good seats. Some tool yells out "Hey Tom Ricketts, how's letting go of Castellanos working for you now?" loud as hell. We know how that deal turned out. Nick had one good season and been crap otherwise. Good thing some fans don't run the club.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 15, 2023 12:28:05 GMT -5
It’s a good thing Jed didn’t listen to either you or me this past winter where we were both very against the Bellinger deal to begin with. That's funny, because I literally said the way the Cubs were approaching the offseason, Belly was a perfect fit money-wise. I nailed Barnhart as well, fell free to bump it. I didn;t mind the signing actually. So good thing Jed didn't listen to you. My bad, you were not against the Bellinger signing, but also not for the right reasons. You stated Bellinger was fine for what you perceived as the Cubs off-season plans because he helped Ricketts avoid big dollars long term and Bellinger at best case could be flipped. You also repeatedly stated that Ortega was better than Bellinger. Bellinger turned out to be the right call not because he helped Ricketts save money, nor because he could help bolster the farm mid season. But rather because he’s helped the Cubs be competitive and vie for a playoff spot. Similarly to Swanson. You stated you liked him but not as a significant and impactful free agent signing. The Cubs settled for Swanson and you bashed anyone who dared suggest Swanson was a better fit than Correa. Whoops. I’m capable of owning my bad take from last winter. Not every signing worked out, but Jed built a team capable of winning and didn’t overcommit payroll nor sell the farm in order to make it happen. The Cubs are in really good shape following a good offseason last winter and a competitive team on the field right now.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 15, 2023 12:49:07 GMT -5
It’s a good thing Jed didn’t listen to either you or me this past winter where we were both very against the Bellinger deal to begin with. That's funny, because I literally said the way the Cubs were approaching the offseason, Belly was a perfect fit money-wise. I nailed Barnhart as well, fell free to bump it. I didn;t mind the signing actually. So good thing Jed didn't listen to you. You made the call on the Bellinger signing but I first think you were predicting Nimmo or Benintendi , and then said Bellinger would happen because he wanted a 1 year deal and alluded to it as being a cheap Cub like move , and then when it happened you questioned the move and saw it as being not so wise a signing and claimed it might be money poorly spent and or money they didn't need to spend that theu could be spending on somebody else because you were poitning out how Ortega was better last season and was a better player at that point.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 15, 2023 12:57:15 GMT -5
Cubs Payroll ranks 17 - 8TH (92 wins) 18 - 4TH (95 wins) 19 - 2ND (84 wins) 20 - 6TH (60 wins COVID, won the division) 21 - 15TH (71 wins) 22 - 14TH (74 wins) 23 - 12TH (TBD wins) Like I said, if the Cubs pass on Belli and Ohtani and rely on the roster for 2024 and call-ups, that ranking will dip in the upper teens, maybe low 20's, lower half of MLB. Unfendable. I never ever ask for the Cubs to spend stupidly, but to win in the MLB you need superstar players that fill holes. If Belli and Ohtani are "priced out" then that's on Tommy because both of those guys fill needs in 2024. If they pass on Belli then it will show that Tommy is holding them back. Jed was giddy in that recent interview and kept saying that Belli knows how they feel about him so I'm pretty sure Jed wants him to be a Cub , he's usually good at not tipping his hand , but he wasn't in regards to Bellinger. However that doesn't mean he's going to be able so sign him , we don't know how hard other teams will come after him , but I'd be surprised and VERY disappointed if the Cubs don't go full out trying to sign him. The ONLY way I don't see them trying is if they really think they can land Ohtani . So it will be a pretty clear tell tale sign of where Tommy is willing to go payroll wise this winter. He IS on record of saying that he's giving Jed freedom to go over the luxury tax when he feels it's the right time and can play it sensibly , I doubt he's going to want them to be over for the 3 year span when you start getting nailed with a 50% tax though , that's just not smart business , and lets not forget he is in a business.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 15, 2023 13:27:45 GMT -5
Steve Cohen style and/or bust.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 15, 2023 13:51:14 GMT -5
Steve Cohen style and/or bust. Lol, no thanks, I don't want him to spend nearly half a billion on the season payroll including all the luxury tax fines and then decide to rebuild and focus on 2025 and beyond like Cohen just did
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Post by TheChico on Aug 15, 2023 13:58:47 GMT -5
Cubs Payroll ranks 17 - 8TH (92 wins) 18 - 4TH (95 wins) 19 - 2ND (84 wins) 20 - 6TH (60 wins COVID, won the division) 21 - 15TH (71 wins) 22 - 14TH (74 wins) 23 - 12TH (TBD wins) Like I said, if the Cubs pass on Belli and Ohtani and rely on the roster for 2024 and call-ups, that ranking will dip in the upper teens, maybe low 20's, lower half of MLB. Unfendable. I never ever ask for the Cubs to spend stupidly, but to win in the MLB you need superstar players that fill holes. If Belli and Ohtani are "priced out" then that's on Tommy because both of those guys fill needs in 2024. They will end up with Bellinger unless they sign Ohtani. It is going to be one or the other, no chance they get priced out on both, they cannot afford that for business reasons.
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Post by TheChico on Aug 15, 2023 13:59:43 GMT -5
Steve Cohen style and/or bust. Lol, no thanks, I don't want him to spend nearly half a billion on the season payroll including all the luxury tax fines and then decide to rebuild and focus on 2025 and beyond like Cohen just did Ok, just go Padres Route and sign everybody to long term contracts that goes into their 40s.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 15, 2023 14:08:15 GMT -5
Lol, no thanks, I don't want him to spend nearly half a billion on the season payroll including all the luxury tax fines and then decide to rebuild and focus on 2025 and beyond like Cohen just did Ok, just go Padres Route and sign everybody to long term contracts that goes into their 40s. While being in like 4th place in the early stages of that system, LOL
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Post by holycow23 on Aug 15, 2023 16:08:03 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger is better than Rafeal Ortega.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 15, 2023 17:30:32 GMT -5
Cody Bellinger is better than Rafeal Ortega. Just a tad better , lol. We also had people saying the Cubs lost the choice of struggling OF's with LA because Heyward had a couple early homers. Jey Hey still having a fine season though , 11 homers ( 8 of them solo) 29 rbis .248 avg .342 obp .802 ops
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 15, 2023 17:45:43 GMT -5
That's funny, because I literally said the way the Cubs were approaching the offseason, Belly was a perfect fit money-wise. I nailed Barnhart as well, fell free to bump it. I didn;t mind the signing actually. So good thing Jed didn't listen to you. You made the call on the Bellinger signing but I first think you were predicting Nimmo or Benintendi , and then said Bellinger would happen because he wanted a 1 year deal and alluded to it as being a cheap Cub like move , and then when it happened you questioned the move and saw it as being not so wise a signing and claimed it might be money poorly spent and or money they didn't need to spend that theu could be spending on somebody else because you were poitning out how Ortega was better last season and was a better player at that point. Yes, Belli came out of nowhere and I only mentioned Belli when the Cubs started signing or were in on 1-2 year deal guys. I thought Nimmo was in their price range, that 5-6/150-ish range. It ended up being Swanson to get that Nimmo money, and I was ok with that. I soooo didn't want Benintendi and glad they didn't at the price.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 15, 2023 17:55:47 GMT -5
1. I never called Tommy cheap, but I do question his spending tactics at times. 2. I never want the Cubs to spend like the Padres/Mets just to get guys who are expensive. I didn't want DeGrom, or Scherzer, maybe Verlander since he's a freak. 3. I've said over and over again, guys that fill needs. Belli and Ohtani fill needs in 2024 that will cost a lot of money. Are we no ok with spending on these type of players? Would we prefer to give another "hope for upside" type deal to a guy like Harrison Bader? Or Rhy Hoskins?
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Post by batman66 on Aug 15, 2023 18:20:15 GMT -5
1. I never called Tommy cheap, but I do question his spending tactics at times. 2. I never want the Cubs to spend like the Padres/Mets just to get guys who are expensive. I didn't want DeGrom, or Scherzer, maybe Verlander since he's a freak. 3. I've said over and over again, guys that fill needs. Belli and Ohtani fill needs in 2024 that will cost a lot of money. Are we no ok with spending on these type of players? Would we prefer to give another "hope for upside" type deal to a guy like Harrison Bader? Or Rhy Hoskins? For where they are coming out of the "rebuild" and what is coming off the books and the progress the team seems to be making towards being a legit contender , I am 100% with you , there should be NO excuse not to end up going full out make a legit aggressive effort on Bellinger or Ohtani . And I think they do . My fear is they think they can sign Ohtani and they focus on that and not Bellinger and then end up with neither of them which puts them back to where they were last winter , needing a middle of the order legit star player with a big bat. They put their foot on the gas pedal signing Bellinger , Taillon and Swanson , now they need to keep it there and sign Bellinger again because they know exactly what he's been to this team , can't let a guy like that go when you are trying to enter another window of contention
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 16, 2023 8:11:52 GMT -5
If it's one or the other, Ohtani or Belly, then I think I pick Belly. I know Ohtani is much better and fills 2 needs, hitting/pitching, but I feel like you can have Belly for 25-ish AAV and leave room to get more. I feel like with Ohtani, it's Ohtani or bust. I feel like payroll pretty much gets shut down with an Ohtani signing. Now, if the Cubs can get both, then hell yeah, but I don't think Tommy gives Jed full payroll flexibility. I think there will still be a budget.
Maybe an offseason of Belly, Hader and Urias is a much better offseason vs Ohtani and a bunch of 1 year deals like Mancini, Hosmer, etc. I'd rather have BOTH Belly and Ohtani, but I don't think Tommy ever ok's that.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 16, 2023 9:04:35 GMT -5
If it's one or the other, Ohtani or Belly, then I think I pick Belly. I know Ohtani is much better and fills 2 needs, hitting/pitching, but I feel like you can have Belly for 25-ish AAV and leave room to get more. I feel like with Ohtani, it's Ohtani or bust. I feel like payroll pretty much gets shut down with an Ohtani signing. Now, if the Cubs can get both, then hell yeah, but I don't think Tommy gives Jed full payroll flexibility. I think there will still be a budget. Maybe an offseason of Belly, Hader and Urias is a much better offseason vs Ohtani and a bunch of 1 year deals like Mancini, Hosmer, etc. I'd rather have BOTH Belly and Ohtani, but I don't think Tommy ever ok's that. I don't see any world that they get both , that's never going to happen. But I do see Tommy being willing to let Jed spend and the Cubs making legit efforts on both with the hope to land one. Lets not forget the Cubs were fairly close to landing both Swanson and Bogeaerts until SD totally blew everybodies offer to X away and that wasn't a BS rumor , that was backed up by Boras. I see your point of quantity maybe being better than going all in on one guy like Ohtani , but he's two players in one so I think I'd rather have that unicorn player than a combo of Belli, Hader and Urias. And I love Belli , but Ohtani is a better hitter than he is and a better pitcher than Urias is and the Cubs have never spent big on a closer other than when Kimbrel fell into their lap , so I don't see them even being a player for Hader.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 16, 2023 9:05:12 GMT -5
I still have reservations about the non-Ohtani route and how impactful it is. The best case scenario there is what many of us have suggested, Bellinger and Urias. But…
- Urias is not having a particularly good season. The FIP, ERA+, and HR/9 are way up this year. I have no insight as to why, maybe someone else does? He’s young and has a stellar track record, but when someone is about to sign him to a mega deal both in terms of years and dollars, I’d like to have some confidence that this is more a blip than anything else.
- Bellinger, for as much as many don’t want to acknowledge it, is still way overperforming his advanced metrics. Results matter, of course, and he has gotten it done in a big way this season. But the signs are there for some reasonable regression. He can afford it as even a 15% drop in his production still has him as an .850+ OPS bat. But we’ve all stressed it this season that the lineup needs a middle of the order stabilizer. Bellinger has been that this season, but will he be it for the next seasons? Unknown.
- Lastly, what are we guesstimating Ohtani’s annual salary will be, 50-55m? Bellinger and Urias together are right there. Why is that a better bet than Ohtani who has outperformed both Urias and Bellinger this season and has proven his consistency?
It’s perfectly plausible that Bellinger/Urias combined cost as much as Ohtani does. I’d rather take the better bat and possibly better pitcher in Ohtani. That’s just me. I think Bellinger and Urias would be fine gets, just not my plan A route.
Alas, there is still a big wrinkle in the off-season plans ahead and that’s Stroman and his 25m (?) player option. Long we considered that a foregone conclusion he wouldn’t exercise, but that’s very much in doubt now. 25m on the books of uncertainty is never something we expected and could absolutely factor in to their plans to do X, Y, or Z.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 16, 2023 9:36:18 GMT -5
I still have reservations about the non-Ohtani route and how impactful it is. The best case scenario there is what many of us have suggested, Bellinger and Urias. But… - Urias is not having a particularly good season. The FIP, ERA+, and HR/9 are way up this year. I have no insight as to why, maybe someone else does? He’s young and has a stellar track record, but when someone is about to sign him to a mega deal both in terms of years and dollars, I’d like to have some confidence that this is more a blip than anything else. - Bellinger, for as much as many don’t want to acknowledge it, is still way overperforming his advanced metrics. Results matter, of course, and he has gotten it done in a big way this season. But the signs are there for some reasonable regression. He can afford it as even a 15% drop in his production still has him as an .850+ OPS bat. But we’ve all stressed it this season that the lineup needs a middle of the order stabilizer. Bellinger has been that this season, but will he be it for the next seasons? Unknown. - Lastly, what are we guesstimating Ohtani’s annual salary will be, 50-55m? Bellinger and Urias together are right there. Why is that a better bet than Ohtani who has outperformed both Urias and Bellinger this season and has proven his consistency? It’s perfectly plausible that Bellinger/Urias combined cost as much as Ohtani does. I’d rather take the better bat and possibly better pitcher in Ohtani. That’s just me. I think Bellinger and Urias would be fine gets, just not my plan A route. Alas, there is still a big wrinkle in the off-season plans ahead and that’s Stroman and his 25m (?) player option. Long we considered that a foregone conclusion he wouldn’t exercise, but that’s very much in doubt now. 25m on the books of uncertainty is never something we expected and could absolutely factor in to their plans to do X, Y, or Z. I'm probably among the lesser of the Urias fans on here , I really don't want to see the Cubs spending the kind of money it would take , plus I think they have no chance at him anyway. Like I mentioned before , the "advanced metrics" on Belli and people pointing to hard hit rate , that would be a valid point if he was swinging from his heels trying to hit every pitch out of the park and just failing to barrel up the ball , but he's not , he's getting a lot of soft hits on purpose and he's been almost placing the ball in play at times to get a hit. I'm not worried at all , that almost snap like action he had in his swing in his earlier years that had been missing in recent ones seems to be back and I think his issues were 100% due to the shoulder injury and a chance of mechanics in his swing because of it. The way he carries himself and plays the game well in all aspects, GG caliber defender wherever you put him , excellent base runner and he has that it factor face of a franchise vibe the Cubs are missing . So I have no reservations about them doing what it takes to keep him here a long time. Good point on Stro and him possibly not opting out , but since it's only for a year I don't think it would change their mind about being able to sign Ohtani or Belli , those are all in long term moves where you fully commit and a one year salary of one player on the books should not come into play whether you do or don't , it might affect a the smaller shorter term signings though
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 16, 2023 9:53:20 GMT -5
The issue I have with Ohtani vs Belly/Urias.... if Ohtani gets hurt you lose a batter and pitcher. That's a major loss and your season is probably over.
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