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Post by Czarcastic on Jul 28, 2023 17:09:07 GMT -5
Would he take a shorter deal at a higher annual or is he looking long term?
I'm thinking something around 7 years, $180 mil could get it done?
Is that worth it?
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Post by kfidd on Jul 28, 2023 17:19:35 GMT -5
Personally I don’t think there’s an extension he’s taking right now. I’m free agency I could see him getting the 7/180 you propose. I could also see it being driven up as the number of quality bats available will be very few and far between and his versatility in the outfield and at first base will lend him many suitors.
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Post by Czarcastic on Jul 28, 2023 17:33:47 GMT -5
Personally I don’t think there’s an extension he’s taking right now. I’m free agency I could see him getting the 7/180 you propose. I could also see it being driven up as the number of quality bats available will be very few and far between and his versatility in the outfield and at first base will lend him many suitors. Yeah, I don't expect him to sign in-season, so I guess extension isn't the right word to use. I think if the Cubs make the biggest offer, they get Bellinger. And honestly, with the farm system they have, and 40 players considered to have major league caliber potential, I see keeping Bellinger around as akin to signing Jon Lester for a little more than he may be worth. Bellinger is that guy.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 28, 2023 21:06:42 GMT -5
Would he take a shorter deal at a higher annual or is he looking long term? I'm thinking something around 7 years, $180 mil could get it done? Is that worth it? This is what should happen , they should ask him what it would take to keep him here and forgo free agency and if there is a number ........meet it. He's the exact type of player they could build around, perfect fit for this team in so many ways. I have no idea what he'd be looking for in free agency , but I'd have to think a Nimmo- ish contract or better.
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Post by Czarcastic on Jul 28, 2023 21:10:43 GMT -5
Would he take a shorter deal at a higher annual or is he looking long term? I'm thinking something around 7 years, $180 mil could get it done? Is that worth it? This is what should happen , they should ask him what it would take to keep him here and forgo free agency and if there is a number ........meet it. He's the exact type of player they could build around, perfect fit for this team in so many ways. I have no idea what he'd be looking for in free agency , but I'd have to think a Nimmo- ish contract or better. And whatever he wants, it's worth it. I said in a previous post, I see him in the same way we looked at Lester in 2015...overpay a little to get a veteran guy who fills a big need and helps bridge the gap to the younger guys. Plus...he's 28...plays great D at a premium position and could easily slide to 1B IF PCA turns into something worth Cody switching positions for.
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Post by fine09 on Jul 28, 2023 21:42:24 GMT -5
Would he take a shorter deal at a higher annual or is he looking long term? I'm thinking something around 7 years, $180 mil could get it done? Is that worth it? This is what should happen , they should ask him what it would take to keep him here and forgo free agency and if there is a number ........meet it. He's the exact type of player they could build around, perfect fit for this team in so many ways. I have no idea what he'd be looking for in free agency , but I'd have to think a Nimmo- ish contract or better. That's not a good idea. His metrics are not at all what they were in his MVP year & are well overdue to come back to earth however he is still a very good hitter & an excellent fielder that should hold up well so I'd like to keep him. The Cubs can extend the QO & that will "reportedly" cost all of the other teams that don't exceed the luxury tax in 2023 around 6 to 10 million & for teams that did go over the tax 15 to 20 million. With this being the case even if he is thought to be worth 160 mil teams will only offer 140 to 150 mil - so the Cubs offer that same or tick up 5 mil & they should have him, plus he really likes it here & they are going to push hard to win it all again. I'd guess maybe 7 years at 23 mil per & set it up with an opt out after 2025 & make it a descending value deal like 25 mil - 25 mil - 25 mil - 23 - 23 - 20 - 20. He's going to need to have a 2.3 WAR yearly & that seems very doable..
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Post by irishcubfan on Jul 29, 2023 0:17:05 GMT -5
A guy has a one month hot streak and people are ready to back up a Brinks truck for him while completely ignoring his earlier part of the year as well as his inability to hit since the rabbit ball year of 2019.
He is an excellent defender at multiple positions but to think he will be this type of offensive player for the duration of a new contract or even half of it is fools gold.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 29, 2023 10:04:08 GMT -5
A guy has a one month hot streak and people are ready to back up a Brinks truck for him while completely ignoring his earlier part of the year as well as his inability to hit since the rabbit ball year of 2019. He is an excellent defender at multiple positions but to think he will be this type of offensive player for the duration of a new contract or even half of it is fools gold. I agree to an extent. For me it’s the same thing as Stroman 1-2 months ago. Many Cubs fans were getting upset that apparently the front office hadn’t even discussed an extension with him despite our need for TOR arms and his unfathomably strong start to the season. I heard talk of 3/90, 4/120, even 5+ years if that’s what it took. But he was a guy way overperforming both his career performance and this season’s peripherals, not to mention its coming in a contract year. The signs said sit tight and wait, there’s no rush. Now he’s fallen off a cliff (I believe he will get back up, but he absolutely does not look good right now) and we’re left wondering what trade value he even has at this point as opposed to the one time guaranteed best arm rental available. Same thing with Bellinger now. He’s having a torrid and unsustainable July and now we want to talk about offering him a blank check to stay away from free agency. I think both Stroman and Bellinger could return for next season and I’d welcome them both to do so, depending on other circumstances. But the price to keep Bellinger now is going to be astronomically high, fueled on both his crazy season he’s having and his impending free agent status. I don’t see the value in buying him out of that latter thought only to see him eventually normalize to his own means, which is still good and something we need on this roster, but not likely at 30m per for the better part of a decade. Time will tell on both. As painful as it is to think about I still am open to trading both of them now if the return is worth it. I love the run they are on right now but I’m not able to forget the really rough period they had in May and June and how this torrid stretch right now is coming at the expense of some really disastrous WSox and Cards teams. But anyways, staying on topic, I agree that Bellinger is being overvalued right this very moment based on an incredible July, but he was also pretty darn good in April too. I’ll be watching his August and September (and October?) performance very closely to see what he looks like once his performance normalizes a bit. I do think he’d make a great for this roster for next season and beyond, just at what cost and with what expectation?
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2023 10:50:52 GMT -5
I personally think what Bellinger has done is great but I read somewhere (I obviously can't find it when I need it) that his barrel rate & EV are down compared to his ROY/MVP years. The writers wanted to point it something akin to fool's good but I would want to pick him up at a fair amount. It's interesting that both Fangraphs & Baseball Ref have him as a net neutral defensively at about 0 dWAR. That is certainly strange compared to other years and the eyetest should give him about .5-1 DWar by now. My guess is that there is no way Boras lets him take an in season extension and it wouldn't surprise me in the least to see a request for a minimum of 8/200M with opt outs.
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Post by cfin on Jul 29, 2023 11:03:27 GMT -5
At this point he's going to hit free agency, so any extension talk is invalid.
But that doesn't mean the Cubs won't be able to sign him in free agency.
There's also the possibility that he comes back to earth some what and that hurts his perceived free agent value.
I would probably look to sign him some where between $20M and $25M AAV in the offseason, and then look to unload one of Happ or Suzuki to help offset some of that contract.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 29, 2023 11:32:21 GMT -5
At this point he's going to hit free agency, so any extension talk is invalid. But that doesn't mean the Cubs won't be able to sign him in free agency. There's also the possibility that he comes back to earth some what and that hurts his perceived free agent value. I would probably look to sign him some where between $20M and $25M AAV in the offseason, and then look to unload one of Happ or Suzuki to help offset some of that contract. Do you or anyone have examples how how often players with no trade clauses actually get moved, especially early in their deals and for players under 30? I’m not challenging my you on that, just curious. If we could move Happ I’d be all for it. I’d rather hang onto Suzuki for a variety of reasons: - I believe in the bat moreso than Happ’s, even though it hasn’t shown in the results yet. - He’s a bit cheaper at 15m AAV vs Happ’s 20m. - Suzuki could more justifiably slide to DH and open up RF for someone than Happ moving out of LF for a more potent bat. Even though Happ’s bat doesn’t really profile as a corner outfielder, his solid defense likely forces him to stay out there. - Seiya and Shohei seem like they are friends, and I’ll take any advantage the Cubs may be able to have in Ohtani’s free agency, whether real or perceived. - Lastly, I don’t particularly care for Happ as a switch hitter. I often wonder if he’d just be better off ditching that idea and remaining a left handed batter, but that doesn’t seem likely. I also get the impression Happ would be more desirable to another team than Suzuki, as Happ has proven big league success and his defense could be more valuable to another team. I still wonder about my comment the other day, is his NTC actually in effect this season? If not I’d be very aggressive in moving him with other parts for an upgrade like Soto or Tatis if at all possible.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2023 11:44:50 GMT -5
At this point he's going to hit free agency, so any extension talk is invalid. But that doesn't mean the Cubs won't be able to sign him in free agency. There's also the possibility that he comes back to earth some what and that hurts his perceived free agent value. I would probably look to sign him some where between $20M and $25M AAV in the offseason, and then look to unload one of Happ or Suzuki to help offset some of that contract. Do you or anyone have examples how how often players with no trade clauses actually get moved, especially early in their deals and for players under 30? I’m not challenging my you on that, just curious. If we could move Happ I’d be all for it. I’d rather hang onto Suzuki for a variety of reasons: - I believe in the bat moreso than Happ’s, even though it hasn’t shown in the results yet. - He’s a bit cheaper at 15m AAV vs Happ’s 20m. - Suzuki could more justifiably slide to DH and open up RF for someone than Happ moving out of LF for a more potent bat. Even though Happ’s bat doesn’t really profile as a corner outfielder, his solid defense likely forces him to stay out there. - Lastly, I don’t particularly care for Happ as a switch hitter. I often wonder if he’d just be better off ditching that idea and remaining a left handed batter, but that doesn’t seem likely. I also get the impression Happ would be more desirable to another team than Suzuki, as Happ has proven big league success and his defense could be more valuable to another team. I still wonder about my comment the other day, is his NTC actually in effect this season? If not I’d be very aggressive in moving him with other parts for an upgrade like Soto or Tatis if at all possible. Happ is an interesting case using WAR. He is at about 2.2 WAR right now with only .1 being DWar. So using the 2022 Fangraphs FA WAR value chart in 2022 numbers (8.5M for 1 WAR) he has out-earned his pay this year and will out-earn his 20-21M salaries if he finishes at 3-3.5 WAR for the next 3 seasons. Really the only season he was at an above average WAR defensively was last year when he graded out at 1. It seems a bit unfair that both Happ & Belli have rated out as average on D when the eyetest tells you otherwise.
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Post by cfin on Jul 29, 2023 11:45:39 GMT -5
At this point he's going to hit free agency, so any extension talk is invalid. But that doesn't mean the Cubs won't be able to sign him in free agency. There's also the possibility that he comes back to earth some what and that hurts his perceived free agent value. I would probably look to sign him some where between $20M and $25M AAV in the offseason, and then look to unload one of Happ or Suzuki to help offset some of that contract. Do you or anyone have examples how how often players with no trade clauses actually get moved, especially early in their deals and for players under 30? I’m not challenging my you on that, just curious. If we could move Happ I’d be all for it. I’d rather hang onto Suzuki for a variety of reasons: - I believe in the bat moreso than Happ’s, even though it hasn’t shown in the results yet. - He’s a bit cheaper at 15m AAV vs Happ’s 20m. - Suzuki could more justifiably slide to DH and open up RF for someone than Happ moving out of LF for a more potent bat. Even though Happ’s bat doesn’t really profile as a corner outfielder, his solid defense likely forces him to stay out there. - Lastly, I don’t particularly care for Happ as a switch hitter. I often wonder if he’d just be better off ditching that idea and remaining a left handed batter, but that doesn’t seem likely. I also get the impression Happ would be more desirable to another team than Suzuki, as Happ has proven big league success and his defense could be more valuable to another team. I still wonder about my comment the other day, is his NTC actually in effect this season? If not I’d be very aggressive in moving him with other parts for an upgrade like Soto or Tatis if at all possible. I kind of forgot about the NTC and that definitely complicates things, but doesn't mean that a trade can't happen. Does Suzuki have a NTC?
I don't know if Happ's NTC is in effect for this season or not. I kind of would assume so. But like you, if it's not then I'm definitely shopping him now before the NTC goes into effect. I would even pay some of the upcoming contract to make a trade happen. I've never been a huge Happ fan, but his last two seasons just haven't been that inspiring to me.
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Post by cfin on Jul 29, 2023 11:51:50 GMT -5
Happ is an interesting case using WAR. He is at about 2.2 WAR right now with only .1 being DWar. So using the 2022 Fangraphs FA WAR value chart in 2022 numbers (8.5M for 1 WAR) he has out-earned his pay this year and will out-earn his 20-21M salaries if he finishes at 3-3.5 WAR for the next 3 seasons. Really the only season he was at an above average WAR defensively was last year when he graded out at 1. It seems a bit unfair that both Happ & Belli have rated out as average on D when the eyetest tells you otherwise. I've never been a huge proponent of reading much into outfield defense. Outfield defense matters a little bit more in CF. But in the corners? Not as much. So Happ won a gold glove in LF, that's not a huge merit if you ask me. Certainly it's better to have athletic players for defense in the outfield corners out there vs. slow lumbering players. BUT... if those players provide a lot of thump in the lineup, I can generally live with the slightly below defense. Outfield defense gets rewarded for making the outstanding plays - which is nice, I don't mean to say that they're not. But as long as you can make the routine plays and provide some offense, you're good in the outfield. Infield defense is different. Getting to a ground ball that others can't might mean the difference between a run scoring from second and being held at third. Infielders have more opportunities to turn that range into outs. A bobble in the infield probably results in a not-an-out. A bobble in the outfield, might result in turning a single into a double, but it was already not-an-out.
I suppose another way to put it - I'd rather have offense from LF and RF than a solely defensive player at those positions. CF I give a bit of a pass to, defense there is a bit more important than the corners, and I generally don't expect thumping power from a CF. CF is definitely right after the infield in terms of where defense is important.
Not to negate a gold glove from LF and RF, but it just really doesn't mean that much to me. I'd rather have more power from LF than Happ's defense. If the sole reason that an upgrade in LF isn't being discussed (not necessarily at the TDL but during the offseason) is because Happ is a gold glove LF'er, that's just misplaced guidance - in my opinion.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2023 11:55:03 GMT -5
Happ is an interesting case using WAR. He is at about 2.2 WAR right now with only .1 being DWar. So using the 2022 Fangraphs FA WAR value chart in 2022 numbers (8.5M for 1 WAR) he has out-earned his pay this year and will out-earn his 20-21M salaries if he finishes at 3-3.5 WAR for the next 3 seasons. Really the only season he was at an above average WAR defensively was last year when he graded out at 1. It seems a bit unfair that both Happ & Belli have rated out as average on D when the eyetest tells you otherwise. I've never been a huge proponent of reading much into outfield defense. Outfield defense matters a little bit more in CF. But in the corners? Not as much. So Happ won a gold glove in LF, that's not a huge merit if you ask me. Certainly it's better to have athletic players for defense in the outfield corners out there vs. slow lumbering players. BUT... if those players provide a lot of thump in the lineup, I can generally live with the slightly below defense. Outfield defense gets rewarded for making the outstanding plays - which is nice, I don't mean to say that they're not. But as long as you can make the routine plays and provide some offense, you're good in the outfield. Infield defense is different. Getting to a ground ball that others can't might mean the difference between a run scoring from second and being held at third. Infielders have more opportunities to turn that range into outs. A bobble in the infield probably results in a not-an-out. A bobble in the outfield, might result in turning a single into a double, but it was already not-an-out. I generally agree and if we had to choose which to move I'd pick Happ. But that's only if we were in a salary CBT pinch and it presentes us from going after a real All Star.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 29, 2023 12:00:01 GMT -5
Do you or anyone have examples how how often players with no trade clauses actually get moved, especially early in their deals and for players under 30? I’m not challenging my you on that, just curious. If we could move Happ I’d be all for it. I’d rather hang onto Suzuki for a variety of reasons: - I believe in the bat moreso than Happ’s, even though it hasn’t shown in the results yet. - He’s a bit cheaper at 15m AAV vs Happ’s 20m. - Suzuki could more justifiably slide to DH and open up RF for someone than Happ moving out of LF for a more potent bat. Even though Happ’s bat doesn’t really profile as a corner outfielder, his solid defense likely forces him to stay out there. - Lastly, I don’t particularly care for Happ as a switch hitter. I often wonder if he’d just be better off ditching that idea and remaining a left handed batter, but that doesn’t seem likely. I also get the impression Happ would be more desirable to another team than Suzuki, as Happ has proven big league success and his defense could be more valuable to another team. I still wonder about my comment the other day, is his NTC actually in effect this season? If not I’d be very aggressive in moving him with other parts for an upgrade like Soto or Tatis if at all possible. I kind of forgot about the NTC and that definitely complicates things, but doesn't mean that a trade can't happen. Does Suzuki have a NTC?
I don't know if Happ's NTC is in effect for this season or not. I kind of would assume so. But like you, if it's not then I'm definitely shopping him now before the NTC goes into effect. I would even pay some of the upcoming contract to make a trade happen. I've never been a huge Happ fan, but his last two seasons just haven't been that inspiring to me.
Happ and Suzuki both have full no trade protections.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 30, 2023 11:55:42 GMT -5
Now that Belli is staying for this season, it might be ripe to think about what it will cost.
Maybe a bid in the offseason of 7/157.5M might be a good starting point. 22.5M AAV is the midpoint between 20-25M.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 31, 2023 8:19:54 GMT -5
Like other posters have said, I wouldn't be in a hurry to back u[p the Brinks truck for Bellinger. I'd love to have him back but we have to realize this is probably his absolute peak. The trick is to figure out if this year or one of the previous couple years is what you will get in the future. Fans expecting his MVP year or his 2023 season will probably be calling his contract a Hayward-like albatross in 2 years. I think a QO and seeing what his market looks like is the best decision for the Cubs, not rushing to extend him now when he is at his peak.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 31, 2023 8:35:23 GMT -5
Like other posters have said, I wouldn't be in a hurry to back u[p the Brinks truck for Bellinger. I'd love to have him back but we have to realize this is probably his absolute peak. The trick is to figure out if this year or one of the previous couple years is what you will get in the future. Fans expecting his MVP year or his 2023 season will probably be calling his contract a Hayward-like albatross in 2 years. I think a QO and seeing what his market looks like is the best decision for the Cubs, not rushing to extend him now when he is at his peak. Well players rarely have a month like he's had , I think they said this was the best month a Cubs player had had since 1901 so nobody should expect him to consistently be this good. But I think it's pretty clear those last few poor seasons he's had were a result of the shoulder injury he suffered since the decline started after and it can sometimes take a couple seasons to recover if one ever does at all. He may not be the 47 homer 1.035 OPS guy anymore or ever again but he does seem to have that instant very quick almost snap like action in his swing back thats been missing for a few years and he also seems like a smarter hitter who's striking out a lot less than those previous seasons and is back on par with his MVP season. In his MVP season he struck out every 6.1 pa's , this season 6.2 , the previous seasons 3.6 , 3.7. I really don't have any worries with him going forward . He is what they need, a legit star player in the middle of the line up that other teams would fear to face and he does everything else well. Unless the Cubs really think they can sign Ohtani and will make a 110% effort to do so they should make an all out effort to sign Bellinger either before or in free agency , if they don't then I really question what they are trying to do.
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Post by sjwil506 on Aug 6, 2023 10:33:47 GMT -5
Would he take a shorter deal at a higher annual or is he looking long term? I'm thinking something around 7 years, $180 mil could get it done? Is that worth it? 6/162m is what I think would get him. Schwarber gets $20m per year, Belli is a better hitter and great defender, so I'd say about $27m is a fair value. Stay away from more years than six, imo.
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