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Post by Clark Street on Jul 10, 2023 17:16:17 GMT -5
Significant deviations between the Cub picks and pipeline rankings seem to indicate that the front office had established its own priorities based on independent research, needs and risk tolerance. Let's hope they got much right. I read a statistical analysis of the draft once, but the gist of what I read said that pretty much everything after the very top tier players is pretty much a crap shoot. I do admit to a tiny bit of head-scratching though. Indeed, the entire draft can be a crap shoot. Just ask Billy Beane. The Cub front office must be in sympathy with that, which would explain why they would accept the risk of drafting Jaxon "Tommy John" Wiggins.
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Post by Reverency on Jul 10, 2023 18:11:47 GMT -5
I read a statistical analysis of the draft once, but the gist of what I read said that pretty much everything after the very top tier players is pretty much a crap shoot. I do admit to a tiny bit of head-scratching though. Indeed, the entire draft can be a crap shoot. Just ask Billy Beane. The Cub front office must be in sympathy with that, which would explain why they would accept the risk of drafting Jaxon "Tommy John" Wiggins. There's a school of thought that the sooner the TJ surgery, the sooner you get it out of the way (instead of the middle of a pennant race a few years down the line). Wiggins's surgery was in February and performed by Dr. Keith Meister -- one of the best in the business. He'll be missing the rest of this season, but probably back in the first half of 2024. I view this one as a reasonable risk with better than average chance of a good outcome.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 10, 2023 19:05:42 GMT -5
Significant deviations between the Cub picks and pipeline rankings seem to indicate that the front office had established its own priorities based on independent research, needs and risk tolerance. Let's hope they got much right. Well last year they did great in the draft , a lot of the pitchers they selected are having real nice debut seasons , so I trust this group when it comes to drafting.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 10, 2023 19:14:15 GMT -5
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Post by batman66 on Jul 10, 2023 20:10:52 GMT -5
Cubs 5th rounder
In 2022 Carico led the country at the plate with a ridiculous slash line of .406/.559/.843, ranking first in OBP and OPS. He belted 21 home runs, walked 46 times and only struck out 35 times. So, why did Carico drop to the fifth round? Well, unfortunately the catcher’s 2023 season was cut short because of injuries, which limited Carico to 21 games. However, Carico was still on fire this past season at Davidson, slashing .350/.514/.688, with 7 home runs in 107 plate appearances.
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Post by fine09 on Jul 10, 2023 21:25:17 GMT -5
I read a statistical analysis of the draft once, but the gist of what I read said that pretty much everything after the very top tier players is pretty much a crap shoot. I do admit to a tiny bit of head-scratching though. Indeed, the entire draft can be a crap shoot. Just ask Billy Beane. The Cub front office must be in sympathy with that, which would explain why they would accept the risk of drafting Jaxon "Tommy John" Wiggins. Well, drafting a kid immediately after TJ surgery typically means he should be good for 6 to 7 years & before the injury this kid was amazing so I really like the pick.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 11, 2023 7:59:21 GMT -5
Indeed, the entire draft can be a crap shoot. Just ask Billy Beane. The Cub front office must be in sympathy with that, which would explain why they would accept the risk of drafting Jaxon "Tommy John" Wiggins. There's a school of thought that the sooner the TJ surgery, the sooner you get it out of the way (instead of the middle of a pennant race a few years down the line). Wiggins's surgery was in February and performed by Dr. Keith Meister -- one of the best in the business. He'll be missing the rest of this season, but probably back in the first half of 2024. I view this one as a reasonable risk with better than average chance of a good outcome. It's not a bad way of thinking at all when it comes to the team looking at and targeting these kids who had been projected way higher prior to TJ . The recovery rate is pretty solid for young arms and it seems like it's become an inevitable thing with pitchers so to have it already in their rear view mirror instead of the road ahead of them seems almost like a plus. They know they take time to develop anyway so it's not like you are losing a guy for 1-2 years during their prime.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 11, 2023 8:15:15 GMT -5
Indeed, the entire draft can be a crap shoot. Just ask Billy Beane. The Cub front office must be in sympathy with that, which would explain why they would accept the risk of drafting Jaxon "Tommy John" Wiggins. There's a school of thought that the sooner the TJ surgery, the sooner you get it out of the way (instead of the middle of a pennant race a few years down the line). Wiggins's surgery was in February and performed by Dr. Keith Meister -- one of the best in the business. He'll be missing the rest of this season, but probably back in the first half of 2024. I view this one as a reasonable risk with better than average chance of a good outcome. I read an article recently that estimated more than 1/3 of professional pitchers have had TJ surgery and that number is only expected to rise as velocity continues to rise. 50% TJ rate is probably not far off. I don't think TJ is scaring teams off anymore, it's simply adjusting the timeline.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 11, 2023 8:19:49 GMT -5
8th Round, Brett Bateman, 21 YO, OF, University of Minnesota
This may be a pick the Cubs go overslot to get him to forego his senior year. Has some nice numbers at the plate. I see he also pitched a third of an inning and gave up 4 earned runs for an ERA of 108. I can say with confidence the cubs don't plan on him being a 2 way player.
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Post by rvn11 on Jul 11, 2023 8:50:54 GMT -5
Cubs 5th rounder In 2022 Carico led the country at the plate with a ridiculous slash line of .406/.559/.843, ranking first in OBP and OPS. He belted 21 home runs, walked 46 times and only struck out 35 times. So, why did Carico drop to the fifth round? Well, unfortunately the catcher’s 2023 season was cut short because of injuries, which limited Carico to 21 games. However, Carico was still on fire this past season at Davidson, slashing .350/.514/.688, with 7 home runs in 107 plate appearances. Love these later round high upside picks. Could prove huge.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 11, 2023 9:39:54 GMT -5
Not to sound negative, but every year we always say the Cubs had a great draft, but we shall see. I want to start seeing some of these high draft picks producing at the MLB level. I like the Shaw pick, I don't know much about him and it doesn't sound like anyone here does either, but watching videos he looks like a good bat. I've see grades from an A to a B-, either way, good grades. Being a college kid I'd hope he pushes through by 2024-2025 similar to Nico's path.
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Post by rvn11 on Jul 11, 2023 9:50:37 GMT -5
Not to sound negative, but every year we always say the Cubs had a great draft, but we shall see. I want to start seeing some of these high draft picks producing at the MLB level. I like the Shaw pick, I don't know much about him and it doesn't sound like anyone here does either, but watching videos he looks like a good bat. I've see grades from an A to a B-, either way, good grades. Being a college kid I'd hope he pushes through by 2024-2025 similar to Nico's path. Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 11, 2023 10:31:16 GMT -5
Not to sound negative, but every year we always say the Cubs had a great draft, but we shall see. I want to start seeing some of these high draft picks producing at the MLB level. I like the Shaw pick, I don't know much about him and it doesn't sound like anyone here does either, but watching videos he looks like a good bat. I've see grades from an A to a B-, either way, good grades. Being a college kid I'd hope he pushes through by 2024-2025 similar to Nico's path. Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
A quick look at last Junes Cubs top 10 picks and how they are performing this season Horton in A+ 3.19 ERA in 13 starts and one of the best K/W ratios in all of minor league baseball Ferris in A 3.29 ERA in 10 starts Mule out for season Paciolla in ACL .249 avg .328 obp Birdsell in A+ 2.80 ERA in 14 starts Frisch recovering from TJ Hull in A 3.90 ERA in 14 games 11 of them starts McGwire in ACL 7.31 ERA in 5 starts Noland in A+ 3.57 ERA in 12 starts McCullough in A 2.86 ERA in 12 starts
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 11, 2023 11:19:48 GMT -5
Not to sound negative, but every year we always say the Cubs had a great draft, but we shall see. I want to start seeing some of these high draft picks producing at the MLB level. I like the Shaw pick, I don't know much about him and it doesn't sound like anyone here does either, but watching videos he looks like a good bat. I've see grades from an A to a B-, either way, good grades. Being a college kid I'd hope he pushes through by 2024-2025 similar to Nico's path. Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
I really really liked the Ed Howard pick. I thought he'd be much better and even scouts and some baseball people thought he was the most talented in the draft. Did the Cubs get sucked in to taking a local kid? Maybe.... but that's my point. I said "we", including me. I'm more reluctant now because the Cubs haven't really been having high draft picks shoot up through the Cubs system and produce at the MLB level. I'm optimistic that one of these first rounders has to finally break through and be a dominant force for this team and the face of this franchise. We'll see.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jul 11, 2023 11:20:31 GMT -5
Not to sound negative, but every year we always say the Cubs had a great draft, but we shall see. I want to start seeing some of these high draft picks producing at the MLB level. I like the Shaw pick, I don't know much about him and it doesn't sound like anyone here does either, but watching videos he looks like a good bat. I've see grades from an A to a B-, either way, good grades. Being a college kid I'd hope he pushes through by 2024-2025 similar to Nico's path. Nico was the first player from 2018 to make it. Let's hope it works out that way! I was never big on Ed Howard - just didn't see what other people were seeing. He hasn't done much with the bat since his signing and it looks like he could fizzle out, but he's still only 21 which is the same age at Shaw right now. Tough to find the patience to watch a player season in the minors for 6 something years sometimes.
lol - mention of howard right above me - didn't see that
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Post by rvn11 on Jul 11, 2023 12:09:02 GMT -5
Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
I really really liked the Ed Howard pick. I thought he'd be much better and even scouts and some baseball people thought he was the most talented in the draft. Did the Cubs get sucked in to taking a local kid? Maybe.... but that's my point. I said "we", including me. I'm more reluctant now because the Cubs haven't really been having high draft picks shoot up through the Cubs system and produce at the MLB level. I'm optimistic that one of these first rounders has to finally break through and be a dominant force for this team and the face of this franchise. We'll see. I read a lot of talk about Howard being a questionable pick. The word on him was generally a great glove, but the bat needs development. Generally someone needing offensive development isn't what you're looking for in a first round pick, especially one that had just missed his senior season due to covid. At that point most position players drafted are chosen because of extreme offensive upside, which he hasn't seemed to have. On the other hand, if we go back nearly 10 years, people questioned the Schwarber pick as well, but I think that worked out nicely even though it wasn't as lengthy of a stay as we all had hoped. Heck, I remember the 2013 conversation of do we want Gray or Appel, and then many were surprised by KB. Hindsight is always 20/20, some players can't miss prospects will miss, and some lower level guys will become studs. It's an imperfect system.
But I agree with the sentiment of saving the excitement until some of them prove it. We're still seeing a bit of the AAAA wall with some players. The one thing I like right now is that we're seeing prospects approach the big leagues that were developed in the system. Granted, most of the better top prospects were acquired via trade, but they're still coming. For a while there most picks taken outside the top 10 of the first round really didn't amount to much of anything.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 11, 2023 12:11:13 GMT -5
Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
I really really liked the Ed Howard pick. I thought he'd be much better and even scouts and some baseball people thought he was the most talented in the draft. Did the Cubs get sucked in to taking a local kid? Maybe.... but that's my point. I said "we", including me. I'm more reluctant now because the Cubs haven't really been having high draft picks shoot up through the Cubs system and produce at the MLB level. I'm optimistic that one of these first rounders has to finally break through and be a dominant force for this team and the face of this franchise. We'll see. Gotta look at the big picture with Howard though, he was always thought of as a field first , bat will hopefully develop kind of player. He was in the 2020 draft , where no player drafted got a chance to get any playing time in 2020 because there was no minor league season. 2021 he starts in A ball and does meh , 80 games played he hits .227 with a .277 obp .592 ops 2022 he starts in A+ and gets off to a better start in 23 games .244 avg .333 obp .640 ops and then suffers a major injury that puts him out for the season . 2023 he comes back but joins in a bit late into the season and in 20 games so far he's .207 avg .225 obp .524 ops so since being drafted in 2020 because of Covid and a hip injury he's only played 123 minor league games so far but he's also burried among a flurry of middle infield prospects in the system so his chances of ever being a Cub and playing any major part with them don't seem all that great.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 11, 2023 12:30:07 GMT -5
Eh, I remember a couple years back people questioning the Ed Howard pick, and thus far that's not playing out all that well. Similar questions about Horton last year in that he came on strong late but didn't have a deep track record, but that's looking good right now. At least we're not overly excited about picks like Bobby Brownlie anymore.
I think as fans we just see these with optimism as we're like kids with new toys. It's fun to see picks and dream of the future of what ifs.
I really really liked the Ed Howard pick. I thought he'd be much better and even scouts and some baseball people thought he was the most talented in the draft. Did the Cubs get sucked in to taking a local kid? Maybe.... but that's my point. I said "we", including me. I'm more reluctant now because the Cubs haven't really been having high draft picks shoot up through the Cubs system and produce at the MLB level. I'm optimistic that one of these first rounders has to finally break through and be a dominant force for this team and the face of this franchise. We'll see. It's also not just all about them breaking through and being a dominant force for the team ,although that is the ultimate hope. It's about having the desirable talents in the system to be able pull off trades for the veterans that can help you when you are in your window of winning. Back to having one of the first rounders shoot up , looking at the recent picks Nico was the first of his 2018 draft class in the majors 2019 it was Jensen , he's in AAA right now 2020 Howard and we talked about having no initial minor league season and injury .... they also obtained PCA who was a 2020 first rounder , he's in AA and will probably finsish the season in AAA 2021 Wicks . he's currently in AAA 2022 Horton will probably end up this season in AA So from the last 5 draft classes there is one guy playing all star caliber major league baseball and they will probably be 3 first rounders Jensen , PCA and Wicks finishing in AAA and possibly be Cubs at some point in 2024 so other than Howard , they are actually moving at a good pace , not sure if it can be labeled as shooting up , but you have to give most draft picks a few years. i think we got a little spoiled with KB and Schwarber . Hell , even Baez who was drafted in 2011 wasn't up until 2014
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 11, 2023 12:46:13 GMT -5
I really really liked the Ed Howard pick. I thought he'd be much better and even scouts and some baseball people thought he was the most talented in the draft. Did the Cubs get sucked in to taking a local kid? Maybe.... but that's my point. I said "we", including me. I'm more reluctant now because the Cubs haven't really been having high draft picks shoot up through the Cubs system and produce at the MLB level. I'm optimistic that one of these first rounders has to finally break through and be a dominant force for this team and the face of this franchise. We'll see. ...Hell , even Baez who was drafted in 2011 wasn't up until 2014 I'm probably in the minority here but I always thought Baez was a bit rushed. It seemed like at every level, he would only stay long enough to enjoy the beginnings of success and then they'd move him up only to have him struggle all over again. He never got the chance to work on the things he really needed to work on. Not that it would have changed anything with chasing pitches but it was almost as if he was rewarded for it instead of correcting it.
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Post by TheChico on Jul 11, 2023 12:59:26 GMT -5
...Hell , even Baez who was drafted in 2011 wasn't up until 2014 I'm probably in the minority here but I always thought Baez was a bit rushed. It seemed like at every level, he would only stay long enough to enjoy the beginnings of success and then they'd move him up only to have him struggle all over again. He never got the chance to work on the things he really needed to work on. Not that it would have changed anything with chasing pitches but it was almost as if he was rewarded for it instead of correcting it. I thought the way they handled Baez was actually perfect and he would not succeed in the majors without it. Baez never lacked confidence and the only way to get him to realize he needed to make some serious adjustments is to have him face failure straight up to get him to realize that he needed to make some serious changes. Cubs called him up in 2014 knowing Baez was going to fail badly but that was the plan all along and it worked.
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