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Post by cfin on Mar 1, 2024 10:55:14 GMT -5
Agreed.
The Cubs wanted Bellinger back for one year. But there was no way Bellinger was going to sign another 1 year contract with any team.
This is basically a face saving contract for Bellinger/Boras. It looks like a 3 year deal, but in reality it's a 1 year contract with some built in insurance for Bellinger in case he can't replicate his 2023 numbers.
Keep in mind, he won't have a QO attached to him when he hits free agency again.
If Bellinger is back on this same contract for 2025, then something went horribly wrong.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 1, 2024 12:08:52 GMT -5
I don’t think this is rocket science or worth a deep dive. Bellinger wanted the mega contract, he didn’t get it at least in big part because teams want to see him sustain his 2023 performance a bit first. He settled for an opt out laden short term deal, which suggests full intention of opting out to re-enter the market if the circumstances are correct. What are the circumstances? He has a strong season ahead. Pretty simple. Assuming he performs there is a reason he wouldn’t choose another 1/30 over opting out, and it’s the same reason we’ve seen play out in other similar contracts before. Baseball is a long grueling regular season that features unfortunate injuries with frustrating regularity. Bellinger would be just one injury in 2025 away from throwing his entire free agency bid down the drain, only this time possibly for good as he’d be another couple years older and have throw more uncertainty into the equation. The risk is too great, both he and the Cubs want him to opt out at the end of this season. If he loves playing here so much and the feeling is mutual at the time they can explore signing him to a new deal that is commensurate at the time. But he isn’t sticking around for another 1/30 after a follow up MVP-esque performance just because he likes Chicago. Why might he not opt out? If he regresses as the league expects he will. It’s up to him to prove that expectation wrong and if he can he has a big cash out waiting for him. Exactly, the opt outs are exactly why he'd jump back in to the market.
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Post by lu13cubbie on Mar 1, 2024 12:11:44 GMT -5
Agreed. The Cubs wanted Bellinger back for one year. But there was no way Bellinger was going to sign another 1 year contract with any team. This is basically a face saving contract for Bellinger/Boras. It looks like a 3 year deal, but in reality it's a 1 year contract with some built in insurance for Bellinger in case he can't replicate his 2023 numbers. Keep in mind, he won't have a QO attached to him when he hits free agency again. If Bellinger is back on this same contract for 2025, then something went horribly wrong. Or he just wants to play another year with the Cubs.
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Post by cfin on Mar 1, 2024 12:47:04 GMT -5
Agreed. The Cubs wanted Bellinger back for one year. But there was no way Bellinger was going to sign another 1 year contract with any team. This is basically a face saving contract for Bellinger/Boras. It looks like a 3 year deal, but in reality it's a 1 year contract with some built in insurance for Bellinger in case he can't replicate his 2023 numbers. Keep in mind, he won't have a QO attached to him when he hits free agency again. If Bellinger is back on this same contract for 2025, then something went horribly wrong. Or he just wants to play another year with the Cubs. 9 times out of 10, players go where the money is.
If Bellinger puts up numbers similar to 2023, there's no way he doesn't opt-out of this contract. The Cubs can sign him to another contract, that's certainly a possibility. But he will go to the open market and try to get that $170M long-term contract. And if he puts up numbers like he did in 2023, then he'll probably get it from someone.
2025 won't be about how much money he can bank for that one year (or bank in 2026). It will be about how much money he can bank for 7 or 8 years. $170M over 8 years is $21M AAV, which is less than the $30M he'd make on this contract in 2025... but $170M is more than the $30M or $50M he'd make with the opt-ins.
The tricky part will be if Bellinger puts up decent but not really spectacular numbers in 2024. Then he'll have a decision to make as to whether to opt-in on this contract for 2025 or try to get a higher value long-term contract.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 1, 2024 12:48:06 GMT -5
Agreed. The Cubs wanted Bellinger back for one year. But there was no way Bellinger was going to sign another 1 year contract with any team. This is basically a face saving contract for Bellinger/Boras. It looks like a 3 year deal, but in reality it's a 1 year contract with some built in insurance for Bellinger in case he can't replicate his 2023 numbers. Keep in mind, he won't have a QO attached to him when he hits free agency again. If Bellinger is back on this same contract for 2025, then something went horribly wrong. Or he just wants to play another year with the Cubs. I can't see that being the case if he has a great 2024. Belly wouldn't be a Cub right now if he got a long term deal offer this offseason.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 1, 2024 13:18:09 GMT -5
Or he just wants to play another year with the Cubs. I can't see that being the case if he has a great 2024. Belly wouldn't be a Cub right now if he got a long term deal offer this offseason. We will see what happens when it happens. I'm just thrilled they were able to bring him back on what I feel is an ideal deal for both sides and we get to see him play for the Cubs for atleast another season. The way Caissie is looking the Cubs could have another LH middle of the order bat at some point in 2024 and they will have a better read on PCA and Busch so if he does opt out , I'd hate to lose him but it won't be the end of the world. As far as 2024 goes, he was essential to this season if they were going to be a serious contender because they could not rely on a rookie to carry that load of being the guy.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 1, 2024 13:36:57 GMT -5
Lets hope he has a great year.
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