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Post by lu13cubbie on Feb 28, 2024 18:52:05 GMT -5
finally got a chance to watch the press conference. thought conference was for Bellinger and not Boras. Boras talked more than Cody LOL, no ego there
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Post by batman66 on Feb 28, 2024 20:48:18 GMT -5
Sounds like Jed was trying to extend him last July.
Atleast thats the way I take it from him saying he made Scott aware of how they feel about Cody last July and probably talked to Scott more than Scott liked
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Post by Deleted on Feb 28, 2024 20:50:12 GMT -5
Saw about half the presser, there seemed to be some uneasiness between Jed/Boras.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 28, 2024 21:11:59 GMT -5
Saw about half the presser, there seemed to be some uneasiness between Jed/Boras. I found it interesting , that when Boras was asked if he has any similar engagements like today planned in the upcoming days he looked at Jed and said what do you think. I'm sure it was just a joking gesture because I think the Cubs are done but we keep hearing about Chapman and Montgomery and the Cubs.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 29, 2024 8:46:41 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers said Counsell greeted Boras yesterday before the presser and jokingly said, "I thought Montgomery was coming with you?"
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Post by batman66 on Feb 29, 2024 9:27:52 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers said Counsell greeted Boras yesterday before the presser and jokingly said, "I thought Montgomery was coming with you?" I read somewhere that Montgomery's current asking price might now be around 3/75. I highly doubt the Cubs sign him , but these little hints like Counsell's comment , and what I mentioned with Boras saying to Jed during the presser are kind of interesting. I mean a 3 year deal is in Jed's comfort zone but I don't see the Cubs going over to start the season but who knows. Like I mentioned if Belli opts out his luxury tax hit for 2024 will be 30 and not 26.7 and that would put the Cubs over anyway assuming they don't shed any other payroll and plan to add at the deadline , so why not just concede you'll be over it in 2024 and grab a reliable pitcher to make your staff even better out of the gate ?
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Post by kfidd on Feb 29, 2024 10:46:58 GMT -5
Spend that money up to the first tier. Make opposing teams go brrrrrrrr.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 29, 2024 10:54:23 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers said Counsell greeted Boras yesterday before the presser and jokingly said, "I thought Montgomery was coming with you?" I read somewhere that Montgomery's current asking price might now be around 3/75. I highly doubt the Cubs sign him , but these little hints like Counsell's comment , and what I mentioned with Boras saying to Jed during the presser are kind of interesting. I mean a 3 year deal is in Jed's comfort zone but I don't see the Cubs going over to start the season but who knows. Like I mentioned if Belli opts out his luxury tax hit for 2024 will be 30 and not 26.7 and that would put the Cubs over anyway assuming they don't shed any other payroll and plan to add at the deadline , so why not just concede you'll be over it in 2024 and grab a reliable pitcher to make your staff even better out of the gate ? But the Cubs have some money falling off too to offset that right? I'm honestly asking because I'm not sure. Like Gomes 6 million? And Smyly 2.5 million buyout vs 10 million salary or are those factored in? Bote too, doesn't his silly money fall off too?
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Post by fine09 on Feb 29, 2024 11:14:02 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers said Counsell greeted Boras yesterday before the presser and jokingly said, "I thought Montgomery was coming with you?" That was hilarious.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 29, 2024 11:20:33 GMT -5
I read somewhere that Montgomery's current asking price might now be around 3/75. I highly doubt the Cubs sign him , but these little hints like Counsell's comment , and what I mentioned with Boras saying to Jed during the presser are kind of interesting. I mean a 3 year deal is in Jed's comfort zone but I don't see the Cubs going over to start the season but who knows. Like I mentioned if Belli opts out his luxury tax hit for 2024 will be 30 and not 26.7 and that would put the Cubs over anyway assuming they don't shed any other payroll and plan to add at the deadline , so why not just concede you'll be over it in 2024 and grab a reliable pitcher to make your staff even better out of the gate ? But the Cubs have some money falling off too to offset that right? I'm honestly asking because I'm not sure. Like Gomes 6 million? And Smyly 2.5 million buyout vs 10 million salary or are those factored in? Bote too, doesn't his silly money fall off too? I believe all of those that you mention are finished after this year including Hendricks so quite a bit of $$ space for next year. Then again they may need a #3/4 starter & a starting catcher for replacements along with the normal BP additions so they may see going over pretty good next year. I would like to see them go over this year & sign Montgomery but I'd be shocked if he's available for 3/75 & would expects it to be 5/110 but I'd be ok with even that deal because he eats innings and should be in the 3 to 3-1/2 ERA with a nice WHIP & average innings per start.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 29, 2024 11:31:02 GMT -5
"Like I mentioned if Belli opts out his luxury tax hit for 2024"
Oh ok, I misread Batman's post. I don't know why I read "2025".
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Post by batman66 on Feb 29, 2024 12:33:14 GMT -5
I read somewhere that Montgomery's current asking price might now be around 3/75. I highly doubt the Cubs sign him , but these little hints like Counsell's comment , and what I mentioned with Boras saying to Jed during the presser are kind of interesting. I mean a 3 year deal is in Jed's comfort zone but I don't see the Cubs going over to start the season but who knows. Like I mentioned if Belli opts out his luxury tax hit for 2024 will be 30 and not 26.7 and that would put the Cubs over anyway assuming they don't shed any other payroll and plan to add at the deadline , so why not just concede you'll be over it in 2024 and grab a reliable pitcher to make your staff even better out of the gate ? But the Cubs have some money falling off too to offset that right? I'm honestly asking because I'm not sure. Like Gomes 6 million? And Smyly 2.5 million buyout vs 10 million salary or are those factored in? Bote too, doesn't his silly money fall off too? Next year , yes. But I'm talking about if Belli opts out after this season and this seasons luxury tax. Right now on his deal his luxury tax hit is 26.7 million for the 2024 season. If he opts out , that will change to 30 million hit for 2024 since it takes the AAV of the seasons he would be here , right now it's calculated as 26.7 over 3 years, if he opts out it's 30 million over 1 year , and that 3.3 difference would take the Cubs over the threshold for 2024. Next season they only have 152.6 already committed and that includes Belli's 30 million , so they should have ample cap space next winter.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Feb 29, 2024 13:56:30 GMT -5
"If you don't think Cody Bellinger had choices that were different than this ... The fact of the matter is we did a contract, in collaboration with Cody and his desires...," the superagent told Paul Sullivan of Chicago Tribune. That's what "Scotty" said. Clever wordplay suggesting that he had other choices but never actually saying they received other offers. One does not simply become a superagent without elite BS skillls.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 29, 2024 14:53:49 GMT -5
But the Cubs have some money falling off too to offset that right? I'm honestly asking because I'm not sure. Like Gomes 6 million? And Smyly 2.5 million buyout vs 10 million salary or are those factored in? Bote too, doesn't his silly money fall off too? Next year , yes. But I'm talking about if Belli opts out after this season and this seasons luxury tax. Right now on his deal his luxury tax hit is 26.7 million for the 2024 season. If he opts out , that will change to 30 million hit for 2024 since it takes the AAV of the seasons he would be here , right now it's calculated as 26.7 over 3 years, if he opts out it's 30 million over 1 year , and that 3.3 difference would take the Cubs over the threshold for 2024. Next season they only have 152.6 already committed and that includes Belli's 30 million , so they should have ample cap space next winter. If Cody opts out after 2024 then yes, the tax hit changes but unless Cody has a 2024 every bit as good or better than last year I believe he stays 2 years (60 mil) & if that happened I don't think they can change the 2024 tax hit - in Nov. of 2025 when he opts out after 2025.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 29, 2024 16:58:34 GMT -5
Yeah , probably don't have to worry about it ,he's probably here for atleast the 2 seasons so the 2024 tax hit should remain at 26.7
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Post by kfidd on Feb 29, 2024 20:20:41 GMT -5
The only way the Cubs will come out of this feeling good is if Bellinger cruises to an opt out at the end of this season. The contract was drawn up with that intention in mind for both parties and if he’s back for 2025 I think that means things went pretty wrong this season for him (or at least relative to his 2023 campaign).
Bellinger will turn 29 before the all star break. Even just waiting one season for the opt out pushes his first year on a new contract into already his age 30-31 season. That will matter pretty significantly on any new deal for remember that Bellinger’s best free agency bid will always be advertising his premium defense in center with the plus bat. But we also know what typically is the first thing to go when players start their post 30 decline, and that’s the legs. And before any doubt that he could still get a massive contract even as a first baseman at age 30.5, ask yourselves to what extent you’d be willing to go to sign a player that age to a big 6-8 year deal if you knew he was limited to first base. If the answer is still a major willingness then that would mean he continued his torrid offensive pace from 2023 which only further highlights that he would absolutely be opting out after 2024.
This will be his only opportunity for a massive contract. If 1/30 for 2025 means that much to him that means he wasn’t good enough this year to opt out, not that it’s just such a sweet and juicy deal that he can’t pass it up. Bellinger and the Cubs both want him to be a superstar this season and for him to subsequently opt out.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 29, 2024 20:34:47 GMT -5
The only way the Cubs will come out of this feeling good is if Bellinger cruises to an opt out at the end of this season. The contract was drawn up with that intention in mind for both parties and if he’s back for 2025 I think that means things went pretty wrong this season for him (or at least relative to his 2023 campaign). Bellinger will turn 29 before the all star break. Even just waiting one season for the opt out pushes his first year on a new contract into already his age 30-31 season. That will matter pretty significantly on any new deal for remember that Bellinger’s best free agency bid will always be advertising his premium defense in center with the plus bat. But we also know what typically is the first thing to go when players start their post 30 decline, and that’s the legs. And before any doubt that he could still get a massive contract even as a first baseman at age 30.5, ask yourselves to what extent you’d be willing to go to sign a player that age to a big 6-8 year deal if you knew he was limited to first base. If the answer is still a major willingness then that would mean he continued his torrid offensive pace from 2023 which only further highlights that he would absolutely be opting out after 2024. This will be his only opportunity for a massive contract. If 1/30 for 2025 means that much to him that means he wasn’t good enough this year to opt out, not that it’s just such a sweet and juicy deal that he can’t pass it up. Bellinger and the Cubs both want him to be a superstar this season and for him to subsequently opt out. Why ? It's 30 million and it's the place he wants to play and with a team he likes. Banking 60 million in 2 years is pretty solid and I don't think he will be getting a massive contract in the future unless he betters his 2023 season. He's likely to get something along the 5/135-150 range at best and add in the 2/60 he banked and he's at his supposed desired 7 and close to or over 200 million . I think it also depends on what the team does , if they make a playoff run and fall short but come close, I don't think he's leaving. We can speculate all we want , but having him for 1 or 2 years is ideal , it should give them time to get a better read on where PCA and Caissie, Busch etc are at in their development.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 1, 2024 9:21:27 GMT -5
If Belly goes .900 OPS and a top 10 wRC+ (13th in MLB in 2023)..... I cannot see why he wouldn't opt out. 2/60 isn't as attractive for a player coming off back to back really good/great seasons.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 1, 2024 10:11:04 GMT -5
If Belly goes .900 OPS and a top 10 wRC+ (13th in MLB in 2023)..... I cannot see why he wouldn't opt out. 2/60 isn't as attractive for a player coming off back to back really good/great seasons. It might also depend on the market and the way it's trended where most teams other than the Dodgers just aren't spending , although that will be hard to predict ahead of time. And possibly un finished business if they make a nice playoff run and fall short might keep him here for one more year. 30 million a year , I think there are only something like 25 players making that And who is out there in free agency and the OF class is not impressive after Soto Left Fielders Mark Canha (36) Franchy Cordero (30) Travis Jankowski (34) Jordan Luplow (31) Tyler O’Neill (30) Joc Pederson (33) – $14MM mutual option with a $3MM buyout David Peralta (37) Jurickson Profar (32) Rob Refsnyder (34) Juan Soto (26) Center Fielders Harrison Bader (31) Cody Bellinger (29) – can opt out of remaining two years, $50MM* Enrique Hernandez (33) Aaron Hicks (35) Kevin Kiermaier (35) Manuel Margot (30) – $12MM club option with a $2MM buyout Jake Marisnick (34) Brett Phillips (31) Kevin Pillar (36) Victor Robles (28) Austin Slater (32) Right Fielders Brian Anderson (32) Michael Conforto (32)* Joey Gallo (31) Randal Grichuk (33) Teoscar Hernandez (32) Jason Heyward (35)* Max Kepler (32) Whit Merrifield (36) Hunter Renfroe (33) – can opt out of remaining one year, $7.5MM Anthony Santander (30) Alex Verdugo (29)
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Post by kfidd on Mar 1, 2024 10:49:51 GMT -5
I don’t think this is rocket science or worth a deep dive. Bellinger wanted the mega contract, he didn’t get it at least in big part because teams want to see him sustain his 2023 performance a bit first. He settled for an opt out laden short term deal, which suggests full intention of opting out to re-enter the market if the circumstances are correct. What are the circumstances? He has a strong season ahead. Pretty simple.
Assuming he performs there is a reason he wouldn’t choose another 1/30 over opting out, and it’s the same reason we’ve seen play out in other similar contracts before. Baseball is a long grueling regular season that features unfortunate injuries with frustrating regularity. Bellinger would be just one injury in 2025 away from throwing his entire free agency bid down the drain, only this time possibly for good as he’d be another couple years older and have throw more uncertainty into the equation. The risk is too great, both he and the Cubs want him to opt out at the end of this season. If he loves playing here so much and the feeling is mutual at the time they can explore signing him to a new deal that is commensurate at the time. But he isn’t sticking around for another 1/30 after a follow up MVP-esque performance just because he likes Chicago.
Why might he not opt out? If he regresses as the league expects he will. It’s up to him to prove that expectation wrong and if he can he has a big cash out waiting for him.
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