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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2016 12:36:14 GMT -5
I guess what I'd like to see is more players from the 2nd round and lower learning enough skills in our minor leagues that they become major league ballplayers. That's my beef, and I'm ok if everyone wants to disagree with me. My contention is that you will see guys like that. You want them to happen quickly and learning takes time.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2016 13:36:11 GMT -5
but a guy like vitters was unteachable, which is why this FO let him go in short order. he never would have been drafted under this FO. and you can't blame them for career altering injuries. i get your point though, you just chose bad examples.
i think this FO has done great in teaching/developing, they just haven't been allowed the time to see it come to fruition. i think in the next 2 years we'll see a lot more of the type of player you're talking about making their way to the big leagues.
the other poster's point about how many of those players on the STL roster were drafted/signed in 2012 or later is a valid one. that's only fair because they have had about a decade long head start on the cubs current regime.
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 6, 2016 13:42:11 GMT -5
Ok, how long of a minor league education is typical for a starting caliber major leaguer?
I'm thinking that most college aged kids can get done in 3 years if they're going to make it. High schoolers probably twice that.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2016 14:05:37 GMT -5
fair enough, so based on that we're at the median developmental time frame right now with this organization. the cards have been at it for 10-15 years? well....
the cards don't have anyone that wasn't a 1st rounder on their big league roster drafted/signed later than 2010, which is a full 2 year head start on the cubs.
of their IFA's... diaz was signed as a 16 year old in 2007 oh last year but he's old martinez was signed in 2010 as an 18 year old
looks to me like the cubs are right on par with the cards as far as draft/development goes over the last 4 years or so.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 6, 2016 14:33:51 GMT -5
Tyler Lyons, Dean Kiekhefer & Greg Garcia were drafted in 2010 Matt Carpenter, Trevor Rosenthal & Matt Adams were drafted in 2009. Kevin Siegrist was drafted in 2008. Jamie Garcia was drafted in 2005 Yadier Molina was drafted in 2000. You rightly give the Cardinals a ton of credit for developing players. But it takes a long time to develop young talent. Who picks them and when they were picked is relevant. Who hires those that are in charge of picking and developing Minor Leaguers? Hasn't there been drastic changes in our system since 2012, as far as who develops the Minor Leaguers goes? Shouldn't they be given at least another 2-3 years (to even start the success / failure evaluations), since all of your comparisons are players who were drafted before any of our front office personnel were here? Why haven't the Cardinals been able to develop 1 single lower round player since 2010? I mean, the Cardinal way, right? Why is the guy who was in charge of Cardinal draft picks not included in the Cardinal draft process, this year? (Nothing to do with this conversation, just a jab at the Cardinals) Do you not like what is happening to our key Minor Leaguers, who were placed in our system in the last 4 years when they were 16-20 yrs old? You say this discussion is about player development and the lack thereof, but isn't it really about whether or not the Cubs should cut Clayton Richards?
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 6, 2016 15:11:49 GMT -5
2mileshighillini, yes this thread was originally about Clayton Richard. Then it kind of get derailed when a bunch of people wanted to disagree with one of my points, and I've been responding to them.
Personally, I'd cut loose Richard back to the minor leagues and promote Spencer Patton. I know he's not left-handed, but he's been getting the job done at Iowa and deserves the first opportunity.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 6, 2016 15:17:26 GMT -5
so... nothing on the cards not developing anyone in the last 4+ years?
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 6, 2016 19:53:27 GMT -5
Look, we're not really delving that deeply into the problem. Some players that were developed in a system wind up playing for other teams. For example, DJ is now the 2nd baseman for the Colorado Rockies. He's sort like our version of Kyle Hendricks.... a guy we drafted and developed, then got traded to another team.
I really don't need to continue to argue back and forth. As has been brought up, the subject of this thread is Clayton Richards. Do we both agree that he's not that good? You want to see Conception. I would like to see Patton. Either way, Richards is just not good enough for this team.
To answer your question, I would say that three things come immediately to mind. First, perhaps the Cardinals are slowing down and losing their teaching dominance. Second, there has to be an appropriate opportunity on the roster for a player to get promoted. Thrid, I seem to remember that last year their most promising prospect (a centerfielder named Tavarez) died in a car accident. I'm going off of memory here, so be kind.
I do not really expect the Cubs to match the Cardinals in terms of homegrown talent. The Cubs have many additional sources of talent that the Cardinals do not. Our front office makes trades to add to the system. Our front office is much more active on the international free agent market. Our front office signs free agents that the Cardinals cannot. So, while the Cardinals are forced to rely on their minor league system, we (the Cubs) are not.
That doesn't change the fact that the Cardinals are better at teaching. We can catch up in that department too with a lot of effort. I just want to see some results rather than just hearing people talk. There was a very real chance this year that no one on the entire roster would have received the majority of their training in our minor leagues. If Schwarber had stayed healthy, there would have been no realistic roster spot for Szczur. There was also a lot of talk of Baez staying down at AAA to improve his batting approach to start the season. Kawasaki would have been the alternative.
Now that the Cubs are winning. We need this minor league system to start kicking in. Soon, in 1 1/2 years we will be short on starting pitching. Our future payroll dollars will be allocated in locking in some of our young stars with extensions. We will be living at the luxury tax threshold, and there won't be extra dollars to sign a "John Lackey" type of starter. We need to jumpstart this minor league system, and we need to see improvements soon.
I would like to add that I have enjoyed discussing this topic with you Orval.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2016 9:14:30 GMT -5
i thought this has been a pretty good debate myself, tehmpus.
it just seems like sometimes when people make valid points or prove something you were arguing against, you just don't acknowledge it and move on to a point you can still argue.
remember, you started this discussion in the clayton richard thread so you should at least be willing to see it through now that we're here.
it seems like beyond a lucky 2009 draft, the cards haven't been all that great at developing their talent internally. at least not leaps and bounds better than anyone else IMO. i don't think they're slowing down with their ability to teach players, that's not really how it works. they simply had one great draft where they lucked up with a lot of talent and got a lot of credit for it that maybe they didn't entirely deserve.
my problem with your take is that you're trying to judge how well the cubs develop talent based on prospects being built from the ground up without giving them enough time to do so in the first place, which isn't fair.
this minor league system has kicked in... bryant, schwarber, baez, hendricks, szczur and soler with talent on the cusp like contreras, almora, edwards and johnson. and then on down the pipeline, the lower levels are just oozing with talent that could potentially rival the wave of players mentioned above.
considering the fact that this system had to be essentially torn down and rebuilt starting in 2012, we can't ask for much more at this juncture. we should simply be enjoying the ride at this point and saving the criticism for later. IMO this FO has done enough in such a short period to earn the benefit of the doubt and the right to get a little breathing room on the developmental front.
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 7, 2016 10:59:33 GMT -5
The system did develop two players who were not drafted by this front office in Szczur and Baez. I don't think it's an indictment of one particular front office. A minor league system is an organization which will improve incrementally or decrease incrementally. What this front office has done is flood the minor leagues with talent by acquisition. That raw talent is why our minor leagues has been rated so highly the last few years.
I think you and some other posters are too interested in comparing and contrasting front offices. Does it really matter? What matters is how the system develops players. Now Theo and crew have tried to make improvements, and it will be interesting to see how that shakes out in terms of development. I just hope that all this talent they already acquired is getting the good teaching and training, otherwise it seems a waste.
In response to some of the players you mentioned, I see Contreras as a starting player next season. 8-9 years of minor league training seems like a bit too long, but he did have to learn a new position. Almora is progressing. He's always been excellent with the glove, and the bat is improving. He's not ready yet IMO. I'd give him a September call up if he can keep it up at Iowa. Edwards is ready to go for a call up as a reliever, but I think Patton has earned first shot. Johnson may never be ready. He's got the big fastball, but he's never learned to pitch effectively. Bryant and Schwarber are awesome, but they didn't need much training. Baez is a work in progress with the bat. Szczur is decent. Hendricks is one heck of a pitcher. If you could take his pitching knowledge and teach it to Pierce Johnson, then you'd have another top of the rotation starter. Soler still has the "cold start" problem that Jason Heyward also has. I'm not sure how you train a guy to start of the season hot, but one would think there could be a strategy to use with guys like that.
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Post by chifan89 on Jun 7, 2016 11:05:34 GMT -5
The system did develop two players who were not drafted by this front office in Szczur and Baez. I don't think it's an indictment of one particular front office. A minor league system is an organization which will improve incrementally or decrease incrementally. What this front office has done is flood the minor leagues with talent by acquisition. That raw talent is why our minor leagues has been rated so highly the last few years. I think you and some other posters are too interested in comparing and contrasting front offices. Does it really matter? What matters is how the system develops players. Now Theo and crew have tried to make improvements, and it will be interesting to see how that shakes out in terms of development. I just hope that all this talent they already acquired is getting the good teaching and training, otherwise it seems a waste. In response to some of the players you mentioned, I see Contreras as a starting player next season. 8-9 years of minor league training seems like a bit too long, but he did have to learn a new position. Almora is progressing. He's always been excellent with the glove, and the bat is improving. He's not ready yet IMO. I'd give him a September call up if he can keep it up at Iowa. Edwards is ready to go for a call up as a reliever, but I think Patton has earned first shot. Johnson may never be ready. He's got the big fastball, but he's never learned to pitch effectively. Bryant and Schwarber are awesome, but they didn't need much training. Baez is a work in progress with the bat. Szczur is decent. Hendricks is one heck of a pitcher. If you could take his pitching knowledge and teach it to Pierce Johnson, then you'd have another top of the rotation starter. Soler still has the "cold start" problem that Jason Heyward also has. I'm not sure how you train a guy to start of the season hot, but one would think there could be a strategy to use with guys like that. The issue is you seem to be wanting to separate talent and talent development. The two are tied together. Players have to have the talent for it to be developed. A key to developing talent is also being able to recognize it. You are trying to separate things that cannot be separated as far as I'm concerned.
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 7, 2016 11:15:53 GMT -5
Yes, I do want to separate that out, and yes it's pretty hard to do that.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 7, 2016 15:44:11 GMT -5
Szczur and Schwarber were on the roster at the same time and the plan was to keep it that way unless change was necessary.
Now... Here comes Albert. Whether you deem him ready or not. A player who has been groomed in our system for almost 4 years. Personally, I believe he is ready. Not that his bat proves it, but rather that his baseball instincts prove it. I say he's a baseball player. Some guys are just wired that way. Some make it on talent alone. Albert brings an aura of "lets' play ball" with him.
As for the Cardinals, they have a built in advantage, compliments of Bud Selig. They're supposed to land more upper level talent and we're supposed to do it the way we have.
You seem hell bent on qualifying development to the lower draft picks only. You want results there or you won't be impressed. Me? I'm fine with the concept that the top tier guys were better and have stayed better throughout their development. And there can be no denying the development of our top tier guys. We could rattle off a dozen names of Cub Minor Leaguers that have made it to the show, or will make it within 2 years. That's impressive.
And yes, there has to be an appropriate opportunity for advancement. But like the Cardinals of old, there isn't going to be a lot of openings on this team. So, good luck trying to break through. More than likely, some of the talent is going to be bargained for established talent. That counts too. (Arrieta, Strop, Montero, Russell, La Stella, Warren, Rizzo)
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2016 20:32:04 GMT -5
well said. that pretty much sums it up.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 8, 2016 7:56:14 GMT -5
Back on topic of Richard, ok , now can they pull the plug. Yet again ANOTHER outing where he can't manage to get an out. Joe lets him face 2 batters, he allows a hit to score an inherited runner and then walks the next guy.
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Post by glenman12 on Jun 8, 2016 8:10:53 GMT -5
Back on topic of Richard, ok , now can they pull the plug. Yet again ANOTHER outing where he can't manage to get an out. Joe lets him face 2 batters, he allows a hit to score an inherited runner and then walks the next guy. Bosio on the Score just now.."Clayton is doing his jobs..the balls are just finding holes"..
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Post by chifan89 on Jun 8, 2016 8:19:56 GMT -5
Back on topic of Richard, ok , now can they pull the plug. Yet again ANOTHER outing where he can't manage to get an out. Joe lets him face 2 batters, he allows a hit to score an inherited runner and then walks the next guy. Bosio on the Score just now.."Clayton is doing his jobs..the balls are just finding holes".. I mean he's kind of right. It seems like a lot of the hits are not hard hit through the hole to the opposite field. The issue is they can do that all day because he has nothing but a fastball, they know what's coming. If he had some sort of off speed pitch he might be okay, but he doesn't and he isn't.
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 8, 2016 8:37:52 GMT -5
Szczur and Schwarber were on the roster at the same time and the plan was to keep it that way unless change was necessary. I disagree. At the start of the season, the Cubs were in a situation where they had 4 starter capable outfield players in Schwarber, Soler, Heyward, and Fowler. The problem was trying to get those guys regular ABs, and still have room for Javier Baez in potentially a swingman role. A 5th outfielder was completely unnecessary at that point. I think Jed Hoyer was just trying to protect Sczcur from being grabbed by teams waiting to pickup waiver players to start the season. Sczcur didn't have a minor league option left, so he would have been gone on waivers almost certainly. The Schwarber injury allowed us to keep Szczur on the roster. If Schwarber had stayed healthy, then there would have eventually have been a numbers crunch. Possibly Soler would have been sent down to make room for a bullpen pitcher, or Szczur would have been traded to make room. Hoyer also might have tried to slip him back down to the minors after the first couple weeks of the season after teams had filled up their 40man rosters.
This is just a good example of the Cubs utilizing their depth.
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Post by TheNatural on Jun 8, 2016 8:46:35 GMT -5
Bosio on the Score just now.."Clayton is doing his jobs..the balls are just finding holes".. I mean he's kind of right. It seems like a lot of the hits are not hard hit through the hole to the opposite field. The issue is they can do that all day because he has nothing but a fastball, they know what's coming. If he had some sort of off speed pitch he might be okay, but he doesn't and he isn't. IMO its Cahill that looks a little unlucky based on the eye test. Like you said, Richard just doesnt look like he has anything in the tank and zero movement. A team with WS aspirations needs a better, more consistent, lefty specialist than this. Imagine needing to use Richard in the playoffs in a tight game with AGon, Murphy, Harper, or Walker, up to bat. I would get that vomit taste in my mouth if that occurred.
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Post by tehmpus on Jun 8, 2016 8:52:24 GMT -5
Now... Here comes Albert. Whether you deem him ready or not. A player who has been groomed in our system for almost 4 years. Personally, I believe he is ready. Not that his bat proves it, but rather that his baseball instincts prove it. I say he's a baseball player. Some guys are just wired that way. Some make it on talent alone. Albert brings an aura of "lets' play ball" with him. I think Albert Almora is a pretty good player. From everything I've read he could win a gold glove in centerfield right now in the majors. The defense has always been stellar. I just think he needs another year in AAA to hone his batting skills.
Personally, I would have called up the "Mighty Murt" for temporary duty now that Soler is on the DL. But this gives Albert a taste of the majors, so he'll have extra motivation.
As for your comment about my dislike for 1st rounders, I think Batman had the most cogent point in the entire thread when he pointed out that some drafted players are high schoolers and some are college aged. Almora was a high schooler when drafted, so pretty much all of his training has come from the Cubs minor leagues. A college aged 1st rounder like Bryant or Schwarber really didn't need a lot of training in the minor leagues.
I think we all will be impressed watching Almora on defense. The bat will have to be over .230 BA and .300 OBP though for him to really stick in the majors. I hope he learns a lot in this call up, and really gets the motivation to earn a permanent spot on next years team. He'd also be an excellent Sept. call up when rosters expand.
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