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Post by lajoiesghost on Oct 3, 2023 8:20:32 GMT -5
Per Bruce Levine He said the Cubs are going to do everything possible to trade for Alonso this offseason and would love to pair him with Bellinger in the middle of the order. I'm reading lots of rumors about Alonso as well. Can't say I'd be in favor. The HR's are great but all power, not much else. And I think we'd overpay in prospects for 1 year. Just my opinion. I don't watch the Mets so I am not speaking from a position of knowing Alonso inside and out.
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Post by fine09 on Oct 3, 2023 8:22:22 GMT -5
Per Bruce Levine He said the Cubs are going to do everything possible to trade for Alonso this offseason and would love to pair him with Bellinger in the middle of the order. I put this in a different thread yesterday but it probably belongs here & most likely won't be a popular idea.. Let's not try to trade for Pete Alonso & have to give up serious prospect capital & have his .230 batting average but a higher OPS+ because he has damn near the same all or nothing that PWizzy does & will cost 40 times his salary. How can that get us over the hump while eating up 13% of our total team payroll? If you want bang for your buck then let's trade for Bednar & give up a mid to high MLB top 100 prospect along with a 5 to 10 "Cubs" prospect. The Pirates need young top prospects on the cheap & under control & we need to get better now & that should completely take care of the closer situation..
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Post by fine09 on Oct 3, 2023 8:24:45 GMT -5
Per Bruce Levine He said the Cubs are going to do everything possible to trade for Alonso this offseason and would love to pair him with Bellinger in the middle of the order. I'm reading lots of rumors about Alonso as well. Can't say I'd be in favor. The HR's are great but all power, not much else. And I think we'd overpay in prospects for 1 year. Just my opinion. I don't watch the Mets so I am not speaking from a position of knowing Alonso inside and out. Count me in on your thoughts too because his HR/2b or nothing isn't going to cut it & his rumored attitude situation seals the deal for me to avoid at any cost, much less the high cost that they will want.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 8:40:44 GMT -5
The idea that bullpen arms are erratic and unreliable is somewhat of a myth. You get what you pay for. Hoyer invested very little money on bullpen arms and it cost the Cubs a spot in the playoffs. The Cubs need to get an established closer and allow young pitchers time to develop into that role. Alzolay performed well but this is not the first time he's been injured. And as the Cubs bring up these young starting pitchers, you have to remember they have pitched limited innings in the minors so the need for reliable arms is greater at season's end. It depends on the pitcher, but for the most part bullpen arms are unreliable. There are a select few who seem to be good year after year and lets even use that as an example and two well known guys we had and wanted back. Everybody , especially me , wanted the Cubs to sign Chafin last winter or trade for him at the deadline. The guy had an ERA of 3 or less for 4 years running and signs with the DBacks and he had a 4.19 ERA for them before they a team still in the mix for the playoffs trade him at the deadline to the Brewers and for them he had a 5.82 ERA. David Robertson another that we know well and wanted back signs with the Mets , has a very solid 2.05 ERA for them , gets traded to the Marlins and had a 5.06 ERA for them. Boxberger another example, last 3 seasons ERA hovering around 3 .........
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Post by kfidd on Oct 3, 2023 8:44:11 GMT -5
I wouldn’t complain if we got Alonso. But I also feel that if the front office is open to paying a prospect premium in a trade like that I’d rather they send them to San Diego for Soto. In either case, you don’t give up the prospects it’d take to acquire either of them without intending to extend them for the long haul. I’d much rather have Soto for the next 10 years than Alonso.
Also, for all my talk of Ohtani and Yamamoto and Bellinger and blah blah blah, if I could only have one of the elite free agent few (which seems more reasonable than multiple) I’d absolutely go all in on Yamamoto. Then trade for Soto. Bonus points if they could somehow convince Happ to be a part of that trade.
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Post by fine09 on Oct 3, 2023 8:44:35 GMT -5
The idea that bullpen arms are erratic and unreliable is somewhat of a myth. You get what you pay for. Hoyer invested very little money on bullpen arms and it cost the Cubs a spot in the playoffs. The Cubs need to get an established closer and allow young pitchers time to develop into that role. Alzolay performed well but this is not the first time he's been injured. And as the Cubs bring up these young starting pitchers, you have to remember they have pitched limited innings in the minors so the need for reliable arms is greater at season's end. It depends on the pitcher, but for the most part bullpen arms are unreliable. There are a select few who seem to be good year after year and lets even use that as an example and two well known guys we had and wanted back. Everybody , especially me , wanted the Cubs to sign Chafin last winter or trade for him at the deadline. The guy had an ERA of 3 or less for 4 years running and signs with the DBacks and he had a 4.19 ERA for them before they a team still in the mix for the playoffs trade him at the deadline to the Brewers and for them he had a 5.82 ERA. David Robertson another that we know well and wanted back signs with the Mets , has a very solid 2.05 ERA for them , gets traded to the Marlins and had a 5.06 ERA for them. Boxberger another example, last 3 seasons ERA hovering around 3 ......... That was the main reason that I brought up Bednar because he has been elite for 3 years running & is under control for the next 3 years but he sure won't be cheap, probably somewhere in the 6 mil range for next year which is why I believe the Pirates will be more than willing to listen to offers if they can get great prospects.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 3, 2023 8:49:00 GMT -5
Does anyone have examples of high priced relievers signing their big free agent contract and living up to them from there? I feel like most of the strong pens in the league rely on excellent contributions from young, cheaper arms.
I very much agree with cfin and others here that the way to build a pen is through quantity over quality and then the manager needs to cement their roles early in the season. Ross could have done a better job on the latter, but if even two of Fulmer, Boxberger, Heuer, Alzolay, Roberts, etc were healthy in September rather than being on the IL we could still be playing baseball right now.
So I do think the front office has the right approach, and with several free agent departures from our relief group ahead they’ll have a chance to tack on again this winter.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 9:02:07 GMT -5
I'm reading lots of rumors about Alonso as well. Can't say I'd be in favor. The HR's are great but all power, not much else. And I think we'd overpay in prospects for 1 year. Just my opinion. I don't watch the Mets so I am not speaking from a position of knowing Alonso inside and out. Count me in on your thoughts too because his HR/2b or nothing isn't going to cut it & his rumored attitude situation seals the deal for me to avoid at any cost, much less the high cost that they will want. Maybe it's just my age , but I can't seem to make up my mind lately. I could never stay with a stance on if I wanted Happ extended and a few other things and now I keep going back and forth on Alonso. But me being in favor of trading for him depends on if they sign Bellinger or not , if they don't then forget it. If they do , as much as I don't like Alonso , and I've been outspoken about thinking he's a bit of a DBag a line up with Bellinger and Alonso in the middle of it with all the other talent the Cubs have could be very exciting to watch. You'd have two legit 100 rbi guys and I know some people don't like that stats and say it's a team thing , but some also know what I mean when I say some guys are just good rbi guys and some are not. Using your Wisdom example and stretching his numbers out to a meet Alonso's pa's and say that he'd be almost just as productive. I doubt he would . On paper , ok , but in reality , he (Wisdom) is one of those that I don't consider a good rbi guy. 2022 he had 531 pa's , he drove in 66 runs , for example this season Bellinger 556 pa's he drove in 97. Alonso had a .257 avg and .908 ops with RISP Wisdom .200 avg .755 And I don't think the price tag would be as damaging as some people think , it might only cost Mervis who the Cubs seem to not be in love with and don't seem to be looking at him as part of the future and probably a solid pitching prospect since the Mets lack those. I don't really like to give away a lot for one year rentals but if it's expendable type prospects who probably have no future here then I might be ok with it and then you have a season to play into where you can size up Alonso and see if he;s a guy you want around longer or not. If he's not , in 2025 if you can move Bellinger to 1B if they signed him. But I'm sure tomorrow or the next day I'll change my mind. I just keep playing in my head a line up with him and Bellinger in the middle and I know pitchers will fear that and adding a bat like his and hitting him behind Belli , should only help Belli even more.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 9:07:02 GMT -5
I wouldn’t complain if we got Alonso. But I also feel that if the front office is open to paying a prospect premium in a trade like that I’d rather they send them to San Diego for Soto. In either case, you don’t give up the prospects it’d take to acquire either of them without intending to extend them for the long haul. I’d much rather have Soto for the next 10 years than Alonso. Also, for all my talk of Ohtani and Yamamoto and Bellinger and blah blah blah, if I could only have one of the elite free agent few (which seems more reasonable than multiple) I’d absolutely go all in on Yamamoto. Then trade for Soto. Bonus points if they could somehow convince Happ to be a part of that trade. I'd much rather have Soto too , but keep in mind that he had already turned down a 440 million dollar deal and for some reason I have a feeling that the Cubs might not want Soto. Rickets might be getting that Sammy Sosa vibe from Soto , maybe it's un fair but he does seem to have that prima donna it's all about me vibe to him .
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 9:14:08 GMT -5
It depends on the pitcher, but for the most part bullpen arms are unreliable. There are a select few who seem to be good year after year and lets even use that as an example and two well known guys we had and wanted back. Everybody , especially me , wanted the Cubs to sign Chafin last winter or trade for him at the deadline. The guy had an ERA of 3 or less for 4 years running and signs with the DBacks and he had a 4.19 ERA for them before they a team still in the mix for the playoffs trade him at the deadline to the Brewers and for them he had a 5.82 ERA. David Robertson another that we know well and wanted back signs with the Mets , has a very solid 2.05 ERA for them , gets traded to the Marlins and had a 5.06 ERA for them. Boxberger another example, last 3 seasons ERA hovering around 3 ......... That was the main reason that I brought up Bednar because he has been elite for 3 years running & is under control for the next 3 years but he sure won't be cheap, probably somewhere in the 6 mil range for next year which is why I believe the Pirates will be more than willing to listen to offers if they can get great prospects. He's the type I'd go after for sure and the Cubs have enough expendable type prospects to get it done but I'm sure they won't be the only team after him. I'd much rather have a younger arm like him that you can just pencil in as your closer with no worries than keep going after the veterans hoping to pull a good year out of , they can still do that though to fill in the pen if they would deal for a guy like Bednar. I'm not so sure they Pirates trade him off though , they have a lot of solid young talent and were only 10 games under .500 and have started to spend a little to keep guys .
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Post by lu13cubbie on Oct 3, 2023 9:14:43 GMT -5
Does anyone have examples of high priced relievers signing their big free agent contract and living up to them from there? I feel like most of the strong pens in the league rely on excellent contributions from young, cheaper arms. I very much agree with cfin and others here that the way to build a pen is through quantity over quality and then the manager needs to cement their roles early in the season. Ross could have done a better job on the latter, but if even two of Fulmer, Boxberger, Heuer, Alzolay, Roberts, etc were healthy in September rather than being on the IL we could still be playing baseball right now. So I do think the front office has the right approach, and with several free agent departures from our relief group ahead they’ll have a chance to tack on again this winter. Of the many issues the bullpen had with injuries and use last year, I think the injuries to Heuer and Leeper at Iowa hurt the Cubs a lot. I have to think Hoyer was hoping those two to be mid season callups for the pen.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 9:21:53 GMT -5
Does anyone have examples of high priced relievers signing their big free agent contract and living up to them from there? I feel like most of the strong pens in the league rely on excellent contributions from young, cheaper arms. I very much agree with cfin and others here that the way to build a pen is through quantity over quality and then the manager needs to cement their roles early in the season. Ross could have done a better job on the latter, but if even two of Fulmer, Boxberger, Heuer, Alzolay, Roberts, etc were healthy in September rather than being on the IL we could still be playing baseball right now. So I do think the front office has the right approach, and with several free agent departures from our relief group ahead they’ll have a chance to tack on again this winter. They've done a good job in the past putting pens together , even during the "re-tool" they obtained guys that pitched well enough to end up to be able to flip and have had some of the most desirable pen guys at the previous deadlines. This season I can't really blame them and I can't blame Ross for taking so long to figure them out because so many things went wrong and the two most glaring ones were Thompson and Hughes who were supposed to be the two key guys. I can fault them for not getting another lefty ( although Leiter is more effective vs lefties than most lefties are) and not getting anybody better than Cuas at the deadline, that was the real annoying part for me. To your original question , my brain's not working this morning so I don't want to try to think of examples of the high priced guys , but you are right , a lot seem to rely on young arms that seem to come out of nowhere and the Cubs do have a LOT of young arms but most of them seem to have really high walk rates .......gotta work on that.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 9:25:54 GMT -5
Does anyone have examples of high priced relievers signing their big free agent contract and living up to them from there? I feel like most of the strong pens in the league rely on excellent contributions from young, cheaper arms. I very much agree with cfin and others here that the way to build a pen is through quantity over quality and then the manager needs to cement their roles early in the season. Ross could have done a better job on the latter, but if even two of Fulmer, Boxberger, Heuer, Alzolay, Roberts, etc were healthy in September rather than being on the IL we could still be playing baseball right now. So I do think the front office has the right approach, and with several free agent departures from our relief group ahead they’ll have a chance to tack on again this winter. Of the many issues the bullpen had with injuries and use last year, I think the injuries to Heuer and Leeper at Iowa hurt the Cubs a lot. I have to think Hoyer was hoping those two to be mid season callups for the pen. Yep, I forgot about Leeper, but I think they were hoping Thompson, Hughes, Boxberger, Fulmer, Heuer, Leeper, Alzolay , Assad, Leiter, Merryweather, Palencia etc would be enough , and also a guy like Estrada who seemed so close would step up .
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Oct 3, 2023 9:46:29 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers:
Doesn't think Bellinger is coming back. Yankees will push the hardest.
From people he's talked to, Alonso wants to come to the Cubs. Alonso has same agent as Nico.
Soto is a Boras client, doesn't see it as a fit for Cubs. Doesn't think Boras clients are good fits for Cubs and the way Cubs negotiate for players.
Cubs will still have a budget, Tom and Jed are "not gunslingers"
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 10:02:29 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers: Doesn't think Bellinger is coming back. Yankees will push the hardest. From people he's talked to, Alonso wants to come to the Cubs. Alonso has same agent as Nico. Soto is a Boras client, doesn't see it as a fit for Cubs. Doesn't think Boras clients are good fits for Cubs and the way Cubs negotiate for players. Cubs will still have a budget, Tom and Jed are "not gunslingers" Yankees and Giants will be tough to out bid but I'm not totally convinced he goes to highest bidder . But the fucking Yankees have been linked to him in stories that pop up on the internet since the day he signed with the Cubs . Not sure if he's a NY kind of guy though. I can't make up my mind on Alonso , what are your thoughts on him ? Might have a point about Boras, I think Belli was actually the only Boras client they had this season , could be wrong on that though. Of course they will have a budget , seems to be only one team that doesn't even the Padres say they will in 2024.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 3, 2023 10:08:30 GMT -5
Jesse Rogers: Doesn't think Bellinger is coming back. Yankees will push the hardest. From people he's talked to, Alonso wants to come to the Cubs. Alonso has same agent as Nico. Soto is a Boras client, doesn't see it as a fit for Cubs. Doesn't think Boras clients are good fits for Cubs and the way Cubs negotiate for players. Cubs will still have a budget, Tom and Jed are "not gunslingers" I’d guess Alonso would be willing to go anywhere right now other than stay in New York. So many of those players likely thought they were postseason bound with such a heavy commitment from the front office, only to sell off like wildfire at the deadline. Alonso has a big personality, I’d think he’d rather play on a contender next season than stay put. So I buy that part. I just don’t buy that he’d be worth the very high price tag they’ll likely place on him. He is a one year rental at time of acquisition and reportedly is asking for a 10 year extension. That’s hefty hefty stuff. But him smacking 45+ bombs at Wrigley next summer? I’m definitely not opposed to that idea. But what’s the cost? If the Cubs end up with Yamamoto and Alonso as their most impactful acquisitions this winter I certainly wouldn’t complain.
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Post by rvn11 on Oct 3, 2023 10:20:50 GMT -5
I don't hate the idea of Alonso coming over, but I don't like that he's only got 1 year left on his contract. I hate trading for little future security, AND having to pay later to keep him around, if they decide that. My concern is that they'd once again trade from a wealth of prospects and give up too much for a rental. I keep looking at Velazquez for Cuas, Soler for Wade Davis, etc. where they (over)traded good talent for a rental need that's good but not perhaps great or long term. If it's Mervis and a mid level prospect, fine. But if the Mets want a top arm like Brown/Horton or someone from Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, etc, then no thank you. If any of those players are to be used in a trade it needs to be for a legit TOR arm IMO.
But if you can find a way to go into next season with Happ/PCA/Canario/Suzuki in the OF, Alonso at 1b and Shaw waiting in the wings at 3b, that's pretty promising.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 3, 2023 10:34:29 GMT -5
I don't hate the idea of Alonso coming over, but I don't like that he's only got 1 year left on his contract. I hate trading for little future security, AND having to pay later to keep him around, if they decide that. My concern is that they'd once again trade from a wealth of prospects and give up too much for a rental. I keep looking at Velazquez for Cuas, Soler for Wade Davis, etc. where they (over)traded good talent for a rental need that's good but not perhaps great or long term. If it's Mervis and a mid level prospect, fine. But if the Mets want a top arm like Brown/Horton or someone from Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, etc, then no thank you. If any of those players are to be used in a trade it needs to be for a legit TOR arm IMO. But if you can find a way to go into next season with Happ/PCA/Canario/Suzuki in the OF, Alonso at 1b and Shaw waiting in the wings at 3b, that's pretty promising. I get what you are saying , but I started to look at it from a different viewpoint and it's not from the talent level they traded away, rather from the point that a guy like Velazquez likely wasn't going to have much of a future to play here so it was filling a need and trading what I call an expendable player although I don't like Cuas at all and don't like the trade at all from the Cubs side. Regarding Alonso, no way I'd deal any of the top of the crop , but I had previously mentioned Mervis who seems to have no future here and maybe a guy like Kilian who is close to being ready and something the Mets might want because he will likely be passed up by others like he already has/is/will be being like Wicks, Brown, Horton, Ferris I could live with sacrificing Mervis, Kilian and a mid to lower level guy or two for Alonso , but to make the deal make more sense ask for something to come back with Alonso so it's possible to get more than one year of him out of the deal.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 3, 2023 10:35:47 GMT -5
I could be wrong but I just don’t think the Mets are going to settle for Mervis and a low level arm for Alonso. Look at the trades they made at the deadline. They want to eat money, which they have tons of, to increase the return. At the deadline the Brewers were another team reportedly discussing Alonso with the Mets. After what I’m hoping is an early playoff exit for them, and considering their flush farm system and abysmal production from first base, not to mention their lower payroll, that’s immediately one team that comes to my mind as a better fit for the Mets. Money eaten, trade return increased.
That’s why I don’t necessarily think there’s a good fit here. Not because we wouldn’t want Alonso, but we wouldn’t want him at the likely cost to obtain from the Mets. If we are going to pay a prospect premium for only a guaranteed rental player, Soto makes the most sense to me. But you make that trade fully committed to the big bucks it’ll take to extend him even prior to spring training or you don’t make it at all.
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Post by rvn11 on Oct 3, 2023 10:41:00 GMT -5
I don't hate the idea of Alonso coming over, but I don't like that he's only got 1 year left on his contract. I hate trading for little future security, AND having to pay later to keep him around, if they decide that. My concern is that they'd once again trade from a wealth of prospects and give up too much for a rental. I keep looking at Velazquez for Cuas, Soler for Wade Davis, etc. where they (over)traded good talent for a rental need that's good but not perhaps great or long term. If it's Mervis and a mid level prospect, fine. But if the Mets want a top arm like Brown/Horton or someone from Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, etc, then no thank you. If any of those players are to be used in a trade it needs to be for a legit TOR arm IMO. But if you can find a way to go into next season with Happ/PCA/Canario/Suzuki in the OF, Alonso at 1b and Shaw waiting in the wings at 3b, that's pretty promising. I get what you are saying , but I started to look at it from a different viewpoint and it's not from the talent level they traded away, rather from the point that a guy like Velazquez likely wasn't going to have much of a future to play here so it was filling a need and trading what I call an expendable player although I don't like Cuas at all and don't like the trade at all from the Cubs side. Regarding Alonso, no way I'd deal any of the top of the crop , but I had previously mentioned Mervis who seems to have no future here and maybe a guy like Kilian who is close to being ready and something the Mets might want because he will likely be passed up by others like he already has/is/will be being like Wicks, Brown, Horton, Ferris I could live with sacrificing Mervis, Kilian and a mid to lower level guy or two for Alonso , but to make the deal make more sense ask for something to come back with Alonso so it's possible to get more than one year of him out of the deal. I agree that Velazquez had no room here, but I think they could have done better than Cuas for him. For the record, I'm not a fan of Cuas, I don't like his repertoire, I don't like how often he throws wild pitches and has very little control. I'd have rather they found a better option out there than him. I feel like the FO has times where they have so much talent they give it away for far less than value. I know when you're in a winning situation that happens, but I'd have rather they packaged another mid-low prospect with Nelson to get something better.
I like the idea of a Mervis/Kilian and other low guys for 1 year of Alonso, but I doubt that's enough for NY. Crazy how Kilian was the gem of the KB trade and has so quickly fallen off.
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