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Post by 2mileshighillini on Oct 1, 2023 7:50:40 GMT -5
The way I see it:
You wanna see Canario smashing balls off the Wall and launching HR's? You wanna see PCA covering the entire planet? You wanna buy an Anchorman Starter? You wanna pay Bellinger at the same time?
Then you dump Ian Happ. And that's just for starters. The clock is ticking.
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Post by chubbycub on Oct 1, 2023 8:02:13 GMT -5
Here is a quote from Rogers: Sounds like an exit interview to me. I'm hearing a certain Eagles song in the background.....
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Post by batman66 on Oct 1, 2023 9:40:24 GMT -5
Also need to get bullpen help , but it's so hard to plan that since bullpen pitchers are so random and erratic from year to years. Best way to tackle this, at least in my opinion, is to keep doing what they've been doing. Get as many optional or low cost arms as you can to begin the season. Ross needs to be quicker at figuring out roles next year. Quantity is better than quality going into a season. Then as the season progresses and you get nearer the trade deadline, you identify relievers having good seasons and target those relievers in trades depending on your need. This is where you have to have a wealthy farm system. 2016 is the framework for this, when they acquired Chapman. They gave up a lot in prospect currency to get him. But he was a piece that really helped to win the World Series (despite blowing game 7). Rondon wasn't horrible in 2016, but a lockdown closer was really going to help the 2016 team so that's what they acquired. Bullpens are just too volatile to really predict in the offseason. You can throw a lot of money at bullpen arms in the offseason and you might get lucky for the next season. You can also throw not a lot of money at bullpen arms, depend on quantity, and still get lucky for the next season. Or you can do either and get a sucky bullpen. At least with quantity, the odds favor you that you'll eventually find personnel that can do the job - might take 2 or 3 months like it did this year. Then you trade for top bullpen arms as needed during the season. It's going to cost you a lot in terms of prospects (Caissie if he continues next year, would probably be a popular bit of currency) but you're more likely to get a reliable bullpen arm at that point (for that season... the next season? Who knows). They've done a good job of it in the past with putting together pens. This seasons pen collapse is not totally on them got who they selected or on Ross timeframe to figure it out. Remembere the two key guys were supposed to be Thompson and Hughes and the only real issue was who would end up being the closer and they thought that guy could be Fulmer. Signing Boxberger also looked like a good move because he's usually always pretty dependable. Thompson turned to shit , Hughes could never get and stay healthy and Fulmer struggled with how they wanted to change him and Boxberger never got going. The only thing I can really fault the front offive for is they didn't get another decent lefty to go with Hughes from the get go and didn't get one at the deadline and Cuas being the only pen arm they did get was a joke because he's more of a project than a guy you can depend on for important innings which they ended up doing and he failed miserably . I don't care that his ERA isn't horrible looking , he hardly ever had an easy inning . I agree with you about trading for top pen arms to strengthen the pen at the deadline, but I'm not trading a guy like Caissie for a pen arm. The Cubs should have enough other trade chips to be able to do that.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 1, 2023 9:45:35 GMT -5
I will probably endure the slings and arrows of outraged Cubs fans, but . . . Mike Schlidt? I really, really liked how he managed to get the most out of what was pretty limited (and aging) assets. Some of the other names out there don't thrill me much, and while I agree that management may choose to stick with Ross (yet again), and I'd like him to have part with the organization, but, just not the every day, every play, decision-making position. I soured on Ross a little , but I still like him for the job because I don't see anybody out there who I think is really any better. Schildt might not be a bad choice though. Counsel I never liked his personality but he's proven he's a pretty damn good manager but if he leaves the Brewers chances are Stearns brings him to NY although I'm not so sure he's a guy for the big city and the NY media.
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Post by batman66 on Oct 1, 2023 9:50:06 GMT -5
Bellinger gave the vibes at the presser that he is not coming back. Maybe looking way into it but was talking in past tense with nothing about hoping to come back this offseason. I think I will have a breakdown if it happens, lol. Seriously though, it's going to really set back any progress they've made this season unless they make a big trade for the likes of Soto or Tatis who it's looking like SD will have to unload one of to get where they say they want to payroll wise for 2024.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 1, 2023 10:09:35 GMT -5
People put too much stock into player press conferences. Bellinger, led by Boras, has a job to do, and that’s set himself up for the biggest payday he can get. The Cubs players are also coming off a demoralizing month of September where they massively dropped the ball, Bellinger included. I don’t know why anyone would expect him to come out and be all chipper chipper, and even if he did what stock that would be worth putting into it.
I still think Bellinger is going to get massively overpaid and there’s a huge amount of risk that’ll be placed in that contract. Turner, Bogaerts, and Machado all got their 10+ years less than 10 months ago. Alonso is reportedly seeking that. Why wouldn’t Bellinger? My guess is he’s getting 8+ and when we consider what he did from 20-22 and that even with his great 23 campaign he still missed significant time, I won’t blame the front office if they take a pass on him.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2023 10:13:48 GMT -5
People put too much stock into player press conferences. Bellinger, led by Boras, has a job to do, and that’s set himself up for the biggest payday he can get. The Cubs players are also coming off a demoralizing month of September where they massively dropped the ball, Bellinger included. I don’t know why anyone would expect him to come out and be all chipper chipper, and even if he did what stock that would be worth putting into it. I still think Bellinger is going to get massively overpaid and there’s a huge amount of risk that’ll be placed in that contract. Turner, Bogaerts, and Machado all got their 10+ years less than 10 months ago. Alonso is reportedly seeking that. Why wouldn’t Bellinger? My guess is he’s getting 8+ and when we consider what he did from 20-22 and that even with his great 23 campaign he still missed significant time, I won’t blame the front office if they take a pass on him. Yup, you said exactly the same thing I did with a more comprehensive breakdown. Of course Boras is going to ask for the moon. That is his job and I have to agree 100% if the ask is 10/300M or more (remember b4 casting stones I said if) then it is a hard pass for me.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 1, 2023 10:14:46 GMT -5
I am still very interested in Ohtani the slugger and what he could mean for this offense. I’ve shared this before and I’ll share it again, his OPS with RISP since he’s entered the league:
2018: 1.136 2019: .889 2020: .615 (2020…) 2021: 1.165 2022: 1.213 2023: .989
That’s a guy I want in the middle of our lineup. That’s what the Cubs felt like they were missing and so desperately needed so often this season. What are his contract demands following news of his arm injury? That’s the question, but I’d still be hyper aggressive in landing him. Would he take 5/200 with opts out after years 2+? A lot of money for a DH, but he is no ordinary DH, and the opt outs could be in his best interest if he’s interested in testing free agency again after *maybe establishing himself as a 2 way player again in the future.
Who knows, just spitballing. But I want that bat and I think the Cubs lineup needs it. Bonus: he and Suzuki would create a strong presence of Japanese born players that may help lure Yamamoto, Sasaki, Murakami… in the future.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 1, 2023 10:20:49 GMT -5
^^ The only thing I’d add to that is also thinking about how a team might not be likely to sign Ohtani without a strong supporting cast around him and a commitment to winning. No one can doubt that the Cubs are on the rise, but imagine being able to pitch to both Ohtani and Yamamoto alike that you would be teammates on a team that just won 10+ more games than they did last season and with a burgeoning farm system like they have. That could be quite the pitch, albeit an expensive one for two players. It ain’t my money though and the Cubs need to improve. Hard to picture a way they improve more than by adding Ohtani and Yamamoto this winter.
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Post by Cubtastic on Oct 1, 2023 11:13:24 GMT -5
^^ The only thing I’d add to that is also thinking about how a team might not be likely to sign Ohtani without a strong supporting cast around him and a commitment to winning. No one can doubt that the Cubs are on the rise, but imagine being able to pitch to both Ohtani and Yamamoto alike that you would be teammates on a team that just won 10+ more games than they did last season and with a burgeoning farm system like they have. That could be quite the pitch, albeit an expensive one for two players. It ain’t my money though and the Cubs need to improve. Hard to picture a way they improve more than by adding Ohtani and Yamamoto this winter. Does anyone know if Ohtani and SS are friends? Might be a pull there
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2023 11:18:00 GMT -5
^^ The only thing I’d add to that is also thinking about how a team might not be likely to sign Ohtani without a strong supporting cast around him and a commitment to winning. No one can doubt that the Cubs are on the rise, but imagine being able to pitch to both Ohtani and Yamamoto alike that you would be teammates on a team that just won 10+ more games than they did last season and with a burgeoning farm system like they have. That could be quite the pitch, albeit an expensive one for two players. It ain’t my money though and the Cubs need to improve. Hard to picture a way they improve more than by adding Ohtani and Yamamoto this winter. That's a major outlay of $$. You are talking 65-75M AAV for both possibly.
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Post by trav768 on Oct 1, 2023 11:21:17 GMT -5
^^ The only thing I’d add to that is also thinking about how a team might not be likely to sign Ohtani without a strong supporting cast around him and a commitment to winning. No one can doubt that the Cubs are on the rise, but imagine being able to pitch to both Ohtani and Yamamoto alike that you would be teammates on a team that just won 10+ more games than they did last season and with a burgeoning farm system like they have. That could be quite the pitch, albeit an expensive one for two players. It ain’t my money though and the Cubs need to improve. Hard to picture a way they improve more than by adding Ohtani and Yamamoto this winter. Does anyone know if Ohtani and SS are friends? Might be a pull there www.marqueesportsnetwork.com/seiya-suzuki-makes-his-pitch-to-shohei-ohtani-in-hilarious-fashion/
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Post by Reverency on Oct 1, 2023 11:22:16 GMT -5
I am still very interested in Ohtani the slugger and what he could mean for this offense. I’ve shared this before and I’ll share it again, his OPS with RISP since he’s entered the league: 2018: 1.136 2019: .889 2020: .615 (2020…) 2021: 1.165 2022: 1.213 2023: .989 That’s a guy I want in the middle of our lineup. That’s what the Cubs felt like they were missing and so desperately needed so often this season. What are his contract demands following news of his arm injury? That’s the question, but I’d still be hyper aggressive in landing him. Would he take 5/200 with opts out after years 2+? A lot of money for a DH, but he is no ordinary DH, and the opt outs could be in his best interest if he’s interested in testing free agency again after *maybe establishing himself as a 2 way player again in the future. Who knows, just spitballing. But I want that bat and I think the Cubs lineup needs it. Bonus: he and Suzuki would create a strong presence of Japanese born players that may help lure Yamamoto, Sasaki, Murakami… in the future. Your bonus thought is good, but again, landing him entails a really heavy cost. Getting the rest of the Nippon contingent wouldn't be cheap, either.
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Post by kfidd on Oct 1, 2023 12:30:41 GMT -5
It ain’t my money. Cubs took big steps forward this year, despite the shitty end result and feeling. There isn’t a ton of impact talent available in free agency, so if the Cubs are going to miss out on the guys available they’ll be left looking at trades dealing away young talent they may not want to or simply rolling with what we have. I’d be pretty annoyed in the latter result, while the former would be a bit frustrating knowing money could have gotten us proven impact talent while saving most of our farm for further development and trade chips mid season.
As long as the roster improves and the Cubs are competing for a division title next season I’ll be happy. But I think passing up on two elite young (25 and 28) talents at major positions of need for us (DH and ace) because of big monies when we haven’t paid the luxury tax in several years and just had a 10+ year to year win improvement would be a silly excuse.
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Post by threeandone on Oct 1, 2023 14:45:46 GMT -5
I don't want either Alonso or Tatis. I am a team chemistry guy more than a numbers guy and I think either one would change the dynamics of the team for the worse. Both have been in bad cultures awhile too. I also wouldn't consider Alonso because you give up too much for just one year. And not what people want to hear, but Ohtani would handicap them too much in future years on additional signings, never mind the injury thing. Plus we have guys on this board that literally drink and breath our minor league system and swear by some of these kids. It is probably time to trust the system more.
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Post by irishcubfan on Oct 1, 2023 15:10:03 GMT -5
People put too much stock into player press conferences. Bellinger, led by Boras, has a job to do, and that’s set himself up for the biggest payday he can get. The Cubs players are also coming off a demoralizing month of September where they massively dropped the ball, Bellinger included. I don’t know why anyone would expect him to come out and be all chipper chipper, and even if he did what stock that would be worth putting into it. I still think Bellinger is going to get massively overpaid and there’s a huge amount of risk that’ll be placed in that contract. Turner, Bogaerts, and Machado all got their 10+ years less than 10 months ago. Alonso is reportedly seeking that. Why wouldn’t Bellinger? My guess is he’s getting 8+ and when we consider what he did from 20-22 and that even with his great 23 campaign he still missed significant time, I won’t blame the front office if they take a pass on him. The issue with Bellinger and his post game comments is that he was already referring in past tense. Would have been better for the Cubs sake if he said: I have enjoyed this season and look forward to seeing if I have a future here. Instead it was: see ya Chicago onto the next team, will enjoy the restaurants when I am a visitor. Ultimately, I think he wants Bat to know that it is over, no more relationship.
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Post by TheChico on Oct 2, 2023 20:25:43 GMT -5
Cubs offseason overview;
Free agents:
Brad Boxberger Tyler Duffey Shane Greene Jeimer Candelario Cody Bellinger **Will receive QO** Michael Fulmer
Options decisions:
Marcus Stroman **Player options $23 AAV** Kyle Hendricks **Team options $16 AAV** Yan Gomes *Team Option $6 million**
Arbitration Eligible players:
Nick Madrigal *2nd year* Mike Tauchman *2nd year* Mark Leiter Jr. *1st year* Nick Burdi *2nd year* Codi Heuer *2nd year* Patrick Wisdom *1st year* Adbert Alzolay *1st year* Justin Steele *1st year* Keegan Thompson *1st year* Julian Merryweather *1st year*
Non-Tender/DFA/Release candidates:
Nick Burdi Michael Rucker Brennen Davis Jared Young Keegan Thompson Jeremiah Estrada Caleb Killian Codi Heuer
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Post by TheChico on Oct 2, 2023 20:41:17 GMT -5
Cubs 2024 payroll with Stroman:
Currently $158,620,000
CBT Threshold for 2024: $237,000,000
$78,380,000 Is payroll room
Reduce:
Gomes options $6 million Arb Players $7 million
Which leaves:
$65,380,000 remaining
If they go over the luxury tax it likely not try to exceed $20 million over the tax to avoid paying surcharges.
So overall the Cubs could have up to $85 million to spend this offseason.
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Post by TheChico on Oct 2, 2023 21:56:16 GMT -5
Per Bruce Levine
He said the Cubs are going to do everything possible to trade for Alonso this offseason and would love to pair him with Bellinger in the middle of the order.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Oct 3, 2023 3:41:19 GMT -5
The idea that bullpen arms are erratic and unreliable is somewhat of a myth. You get what you pay for. Hoyer invested very little money on bullpen arms and it cost the Cubs a spot in the playoffs. The Cubs need to get an established closer and allow young pitchers time to develop into that role. Alzolay performed well but this is not the first time he's been injured. And as the Cubs bring up these young starting pitchers, you have to remember they have pitched limited innings in the minors so the need for reliable arms is greater at season's end.
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