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Post by rvn11 on Jun 15, 2023 15:31:28 GMT -5
Because Giolito is 4 years younger than Stroman. Younger, but not better Correct, never said better. But there's a greater chance of a pitcher in his mid 30s tailing off than one in his late 20s/early 30s.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 15, 2023 15:41:23 GMT -5
The Cubs may not be competitive till 2026 or 2027. The Reds, Pirates and Cardinals farm systems are all ranked higher than the Cubs so there is no clear advantage there. The biggest advantage the Cubs have is the ability to spend money on free agents or retaining players and yet they seem hesitant to do so. What's cause for concern is when the Cubs have brought players up from the minors, they've been less than impressive. And players like K. Thompson, Hughes and Wesneski have regressed from last year. I'd give there zero chance that the Cubs aren't competitive until 2026 or 27 & if that turned out to be the case then every single top exec would need to be fired. The Cubs are by far the biggest spending team in the NL Central so they wouldn't have to rely heavily on their minors system to be competitive & a ton of money will be available next year to spend so they really should easily be competitive by next year & this year is still no guarantee that they won't be competitive - but it isn't looking great at the minute. They are right under the max. spending level without incurring penalties so it isn't like they are being cheap so I don't understand the "they seem hesitant to spend on free agents" comment. I'm pretty sure that their payroll is the highest in the NL Central. Spending money foolishly will not make them competitive. Like it or not, the landscape of free agency has changed the last couple of years. The elite players are wanting and getting more money and longer term contracts than ever before. Hoyer appears to value quantity over quality and, at this time, it seems like wasted money.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 15, 2023 15:44:11 GMT -5
Correct, never said better. But there's a greater chance of a pitcher in his mid 30s tailing off than one in his late 20s/early 30s. Depends on a lot of things, but I get it that the younger guy will usually have an easier time getting more years. In this case, I like the chances of Stroman holding up for 4 years more than Giolito for 5.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jun 15, 2023 15:44:29 GMT -5
Part of the value (if you can call it that) of guys like Mancini, Wisdom, Barnhart etc. on the trade market is opening up a roster spot for the younger guys. I'd be fine with letting them go for a next to nothing low minors long shot just for the roster spot they open up. Bellinger should net something that has at least a decent chance at someday making the big league club albeit a role player. It's a crap shoot. Just rely on your scouting and hope every once in a while you get Arrieta and Strop for Feldman.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 16, 2023 4:36:24 GMT -5
Kyle Hendricks is another player who could be dealt. He has a club option which allows the team to keep him for another year. At 16 million next season, I don't see the Cubs trading him. That's a good deal for Kyle and he's a very good mentor for the young guys. I'd be shocked if he's traded. At $16 million, I don't see the Cubs picking up his option. If they want to retain him, they may add a year to his contract but reduce the yearly average. But with a good portion of Heyward's contract coming off the books plus Hendrick's contract, that's an additional $30 million the Cubs would have at their disposal.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 16, 2023 7:36:11 GMT -5
I'd give there zero chance that the Cubs aren't competitive until 2026 or 27 & if that turned out to be the case then every single top exec would need to be fired. The Cubs are by far the biggest spending team in the NL Central so they wouldn't have to rely heavily on their minors system to be competitive & a ton of money will be available next year to spend so they really should easily be competitive by next year & this year is still no guarantee that they won't be competitive - but it isn't looking great at the minute. They are right under the max. spending level without incurring penalties so it isn't like they are being cheap so I don't understand the "they seem hesitant to spend on free agents" comment. I'm pretty sure that their payroll is the highest in the NL Central. Spending money foolishly will not make them competitive. Like it or not, the landscape of free agency has changed the last couple of years. The elite players are wanting and getting more money and longer term contracts than ever before. Hoyer appears to value quantity over quality and, at this time, it seems like wasted money. I don't know where they spent money foolishly & the only way to avoid doing that would be to have ESP. I have no problem avoiding substantially over-paying for guys because that can cripple a teams financial flexibility for years but they made that commitment to Dansby & I believe will do so again to either Stroman or another top starting pitcher very soon. It would really be great to have someone like Brown come up & dominate though.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 16, 2023 7:39:04 GMT -5
At 16 million next season, I don't see the Cubs trading him. That's a good deal for Kyle and he's a very good mentor for the young guys. I'd be shocked if he's traded. At $16 million, I don't see the Cubs picking up his option. If they want to retain him, they may add a year to his contract but reduce the yearly average. But with a good portion of Heyward's contract coming off the books plus Hendrick's contract, that's an additional $30 million the Cubs would have at their disposal. There is a 1.5 mil buyout on Kyle so at 14-1/2 mil he really only needs to put up 1.7 bWAR to be worth it and he's already putting up 0.5 bWAR in just 4 games back with 2 of the 4 being not very good at all.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 16, 2023 9:10:26 GMT -5
At 16 million next season, I don't see the Cubs trading him. That's a good deal for Kyle and he's a very good mentor for the young guys. I'd be shocked if he's traded. At $16 million, I don't see the Cubs picking up his option. If they want to retain him, they may add a year to his contract but reduce the yearly average. But with a good portion of Heyward's contract coming off the books plus Hendrick's contract, that's an additional $30 million the Cubs would have at their disposal. Yep , that's exactly what I was thinking . If he continues to pitch well I could maybe see them decline the option and maybe working out a new 2 year deal in the 25 million range to crop down the luxury tax hit
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 16, 2023 11:27:26 GMT -5
Spending money foolishly will not make them competitive. Like it or not, the landscape of free agency has changed the last couple of years. The elite players are wanting and getting more money and longer term contracts than ever before. Hoyer appears to value quantity over quality and, at this time, it seems like wasted money. I don't know where they spent money foolishly & the only way to avoid doing that would be to have ESP. I have no problem avoiding substantially over-paying for guys because that can cripple a teams financial flexibility for years but they made that commitment to Dansby & I believe will do so again to either Stroman or another top starting pitcher very soon. It would really be great to have someone like Brown come up & dominate though. And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season. The elite guys with the massive contracts are playing in the postseason consistently for the most part (minus the Angels players). 12 of the top 20 AAV guys were in the postseason last year. The Cubs are likely counting on their minor league system to generate a winning ball club. Ok, that's fine, if you're a small market team. I don't want the Cubs to spend foolishly to spend.... but I also don't want them to avoid big time contracts for 26-27 year olds either as if it's going to "hang string" them.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 16, 2023 21:52:10 GMT -5
At $16 million, I don't see the Cubs picking up his option. If they want to retain him, they may add a year to his contract but reduce the yearly average. But with a good portion of Heyward's contract coming off the books plus Hendrick's contract, that's an additional $30 million the Cubs would have at their disposal. Yep , that's exactly what I was thinking . If he continues to pitch well I could maybe see them decline the option and maybe working out a new 2 year deal in the 25 million range to crop down the luxury tax hit I think they might do a 2 year deal but if they don't I still see them keeping him for 14-1/2 mil if he ends with an ERA starting with 3 & stays healthy. How could they not with that production & another year working with the young pitchers. He's probably a 0.7 bWAR after today & only needs to be a 1.7 bWAR to be worth it.
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Post by kfidd on Jun 16, 2023 22:02:43 GMT -5
Hendricks could be an interesting guy to keep around for another year. At worst case you get an excellent clubhouse and veteran presence to have around while the youth movement continues to happen. He’s gotten solid results in 3 of his 5 games started now, but it’s also early for him and he was very very bad for the previous 1.5 seasons. The jury is still out on him but if he’s able to show he can be consistently effective again as the season goes on and was interested there could be a short term fit for another year or so. Depth and insurance is important.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 17, 2023 5:12:12 GMT -5
I don't know where they spent money foolishly & the only way to avoid doing that would be to have ESP. I have no problem avoiding substantially over-paying for guys because that can cripple a teams financial flexibility for years but they made that commitment to Dansby & I believe will do so again to either Stroman or another top starting pitcher very soon. It would really be great to have someone like Brown come up & dominate though. And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season. The elite guys with the massive contracts are playing in the postseason consistently for the most part (minus the Angels players). 12 of the top 20 AAV guys were in the postseason last year. The Cubs are likely counting on their minor league system to generate a winning ball club. Ok, that's fine, if you're a small market team. I don't want the Cubs to spend foolishly to spend.... but I also don't want them to avoid big time contracts for 26-27 year olds either as if it's going to "hang string" them. The Cubs payroll in the rebuild year of 2022 was 140 million (for luxury tax purposes) so your statement referring to them spending right at the maximum under the salary cap "And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season" is not at all correct. We will have to wait & see if spending around that same level next year yields better results but I would expect it to.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 17, 2023 5:14:39 GMT -5
Hendricks could be an interesting guy to keep around for another year. At worst case you get an excellent clubhouse and veteran presence to have around while the youth movement continues to happen. He’s gotten solid results in 3 of his 5 games started now, but it’s also early for him and he was very very bad for the previous 1.5 seasons. The jury is still out on him but if he’s able to show he can be consistently effective again as the season goes on and was interested there could be a short term fit for another year or so. Depth and insurance is important. Exactly, and his regression may very well have been mechanics & injury based so I'm more than willing to take that gamble for 15 million on a guy that will go down in the history books for the Cubs.
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Post by kfidd on Jun 17, 2023 20:04:53 GMT -5
Lots of rumors swirling about Cleveland making Shane Bieber available. If true he figures to be highly sought after having just turned 28 years of age and under contract through 2024. Hawkins figures to know him as well as anyone. Would you like the Cubs to be interested? I don’t see starting pitching as our greatest need right this second but there’s no denying he’d make one helluva nice addition to the staff alongside Stroman and Steele.
I think I’d rather they focus on offensive additions (if any) this trade season while showing up the rotation over the offseason as needed. But I can’t deny that I’ve always really liked watching Bieber pitch.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 20, 2023 11:07:38 GMT -5
And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season. The elite guys with the massive contracts are playing in the postseason consistently for the most part (minus the Angels players). 12 of the top 20 AAV guys were in the postseason last year. The Cubs are likely counting on their minor league system to generate a winning ball club. Ok, that's fine, if you're a small market team. I don't want the Cubs to spend foolishly to spend.... but I also don't want them to avoid big time contracts for 26-27 year olds either as if it's going to "hang string" them. The Cubs payroll in the rebuild year of 2022 was 140 million (for luxury tax purposes) so your statement referring to them spending right at the maximum under the salary cap "And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season" is not at all correct. We will have to wait & see if spending around that same level next year yields better results but I would expect it to. ""And it's getting the Cubs 90-ish losses per season" is not at all correct." Ummmmm, Cubs lost 88 games last season and seem to be playing to a similar loss total in 2023, so I'm not really sure what you mean by it being not at all correct?
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Post by rvn11 on Jun 20, 2023 11:25:36 GMT -5
Lots of rumors swirling about Cleveland making Shane Bieber available. If true he figures to be highly sought after having just turned 28 years of age and under contract through 2024. Hawkins figures to know him as well as anyone. Would you like the Cubs to be interested? I don’t see starting pitching as our greatest need right this second but there’s no denying he’d make one helluva nice addition to the staff alongside Stroman and Steele. I think I’d rather they focus on offensive additions (if any) this trade season while showing up the rotation over the offseason as needed. But I can’t deny that I’ve always really liked watching Bieber pitch. Bieber would certainly make for a nice rotation headed up by Steele and Stroman, assuming they retain him. But I've got 2 concerns. 1) Cleveland always rebuilds by selling, meaning they'll want a solid prospect haul. 2) Declining strikeout rate. He's had a solid dropoff this year, at a rate of less than half of his season high in 2020. He's still a very good pitcher, and many pitchers adapt by pitching more to contact, but the strikeouts are what made him special. I'd be concerned they'd be trading more for past performance than future.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 20, 2023 11:38:23 GMT -5
I've been warming up to looking into Tatis Jr. but realistically he won't be available until this off season if at all. If we are just playing fantasy baseball would you offer:
1. Morel 2. Ben Brown 3. Alcantara
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 20, 2023 11:52:26 GMT -5
I've been warming up to looking into Tatis Jr. but realistically he won't be available until this off season if at all. If we are just playing fantasy baseball would you offer: 1. Morel 2. Ben Brown 3. Alcantara IMO... Tatis is a scenario where I'd be open to almost most of the prospects. Because Tatis is already the player you want your prospect to be and he's only 24 years old (2023). It's going to cost a lot to get him.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jun 20, 2023 12:30:36 GMT -5
I've been warming up to looking into Tatis Jr. but realistically he won't be available until this off season if at all. If we are just playing fantasy baseball would you offer: 1. Morel 2. Ben Brown 3. Alcantara I would be interested, but don't think he's a fit for our emphasis on character. Banned substances, involvement with baseball groupies, motorcycle accident- bad combination for a young player.
80 game PED suspension speaks for itself. Was previously involved with Trevor Bauer's accuser - fwiw Motorcycle addident - I've got a bike. They're absolutely dangerous as hell and a guy with a 14 year athletic contract has no business getting on top of one.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jun 20, 2023 12:33:06 GMT -5
TDL. So hot right now. TDL.
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