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Post by Mike on Jun 4, 2016 8:59:00 GMT -5
If you look deep at Lackey's numbers, he's been on a short leash this year with only 6 ABs over 60 pitches. Teams have a .755 OPS against him through pitches 46-60 (3 HRs out of the 13 H in 55 AB) and a .724 OPS against him through pitches 31-45. I guess this is a good strategy to keep the bullpen fresh and give the veterans some rest.
So assuming we clinch a best of 5 series on game 3, I wouldn't put it past Maddon to piggyback Lackey/Hendricks.
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 4, 2016 9:07:25 GMT -5
If you look deep at Lackey's numbers, he's been on a short leash this year with only 6 ABs over 60 pitches. Teams have a .755 OPS against him through pitches 46-60 (3 HRs out of the 13 H in 55 AB) and a .724 OPS against him through pitches 31-45. I guess this is a good strategy to keep the bullpen fresh and give the veterans some rest. So assuming we clinch a best of 5 series on game 3, I wouldn't put it past Maddon to piggyback Lackey/Hendricks. Not sure what chart you are reading, but either its way off or your looking at the wrong guy.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 4, 2016 10:03:06 GMT -5
But you aren't looking at all of the factors. Lester has a 2.05 ERA at home, 2.84 ERA on the road. Lackey has a 1.96 ERA at home, 4.55 ERA on the road. So if you have the choice of having Lacket at home and Lester on the road, why wouldn't you do that? That's a good point. I did not realize how drastic Lackey's splits are. In Johns case I don't believe the splits mean much because that was his 2 bad games in early April against Arizona & the Reds where he gave up 12 earned runs in just under 12 innings. Not counting those 2 games he's been as good as anyone on the road in giving up 4 earned in 20 innings which is a road ERA of under 2.. Don't discount Hammel for the playoffs either guys. He made those pretty substantial changes in his physical & mental conditioning & it looks like it just might pay dividends.. Go Cubs!!
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Post by bbuck22 on Jun 4, 2016 10:55:15 GMT -5
If you look deep at Lackey's numbers, he's been on a short leash this year with only 6 ABs over 60 pitches. Teams have a .755 OPS against him through pitches 46-60 (3 HRs out of the 13 H in 55 AB) and a .724 OPS against him through pitches 31-45. I guess this is a good strategy to keep the bullpen fresh and give the veterans some rest. So assuming we clinch a best of 5 series on game 3, I wouldn't put it past Maddon to piggyback Lackey/Hendricks. Like jerm said I am not sure what or who you are looking at but it isnt Lackey these are his pitch counts each game and they are not showing a short leash and way over 60. 84,90,91,95,99,111,112,101,87,97,100 6-2 /2.88 era/0.973 WHIP fantastic www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.cgi?id=lackejo01&t=p&year=
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Post by TheChico on Jun 4, 2016 11:14:13 GMT -5
That's a good point. I did not realize how drastic Lackey's splits are. In Johns case I don't believe the splits mean much because that was his 2 bad games in early April against Arizona & the Reds where he gave up 12 earned runs in just under 12 innings. Not counting those 2 games he's been as good as anyone on the road in giving up 4 earned in 20 innings which is a road ERA of under 2.. Don't discount Hammel for the playoffs either guys. He made those pretty substantial changes in his physical & mental conditioning & it looks like it just might pay dividends.. Go Cubs!! Hammel is game #4 starter, I just trust Lackey more, he is bulldog who loves high pressure games.
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 4, 2016 11:51:05 GMT -5
That's a good point. I did not realize how drastic Lackey's splits are. In Johns case I don't believe the splits mean much because that was his 2 bad games in early April against Arizona & the Reds where he gave up 12 earned runs in just under 12 innings. Not counting those 2 games he's been as good as anyone on the road in giving up 4 earned in 20 innings which is a road ERA of under 2.. Don't discount Hammel for the playoffs either guys. He made those pretty substantial changes in his physical & mental conditioning & it looks like it just might pay dividends.. Go Cubs!! Go look at his splits over the last few years. This isn't a 2 month trend
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Post by Mike on Jun 4, 2016 12:33:26 GMT -5
It was ESPN. Something felt off.
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Post by zegometer on Jun 4, 2016 12:49:53 GMT -5
Does it matter? All the starters are pitching like a #1 or #2...
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Post by joecooll6 on Jun 4, 2016 12:51:16 GMT -5
Were not even a third of the way through the season so a lot can change, but as of right now your #3 is Lackey due to postseason experience. Hammel or Hendricks is a toss up. Hendricks was pretty good in the playoffs last year. Hammel was nor.
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Post by zegometer on Jun 4, 2016 12:58:28 GMT -5
Were not even a third of the way through the season so a lot can change, but as of right now your #3 is Lackey due to postseason experience. Hammel or Hendricks is a toss up. Hendricks was pretty good in the playoffs last year. Hammel was nor. In all fairness, Hammel was not 100% either
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Post by joecooll6 on Jun 4, 2016 13:10:40 GMT -5
Were not even a third of the way through the season so a lot can change, but as of right now your #3 is Lackey due to postseason experience. Hammel or Hendricks is a toss up. Hendricks was pretty good in the playoffs last year. Hammel was nor. In all fairness, Hammel was not 100% either True. If Hammel can avoid the 2nd half slump and Hendricks keeps it up too....we'll have a decision to make.
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Post by bigbeast15 on Jun 4, 2016 20:44:13 GMT -5
Lackey has a 1.96 ERA at home, 4.55 ERA on the road. You do realize that this is due to 2 outings where he let 6 runs, right? You really think you've seen a large enough sample size to say that Lackey will be better at home than on the road in 4 months?
Come on. This has gotten silly.
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 4, 2016 20:48:39 GMT -5
You do realize that this is due to 2 outings where he let 6 runs, right? You really think you've seen a large enough sample size to say that Lackey will be better at home than on the road in 4 months?
Come on. This has gotten silly.
You realize this isn't a 2 month trend right? 2015: 1.93 at home, 3.82 on the road 2014: 2.94 at home, 4.73 on the road 2013: 2.47 at home, 4.48 on the road Or is that still not a large enough sample size?
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Post by bigbeast15 on Jun 4, 2016 22:13:08 GMT -5
Considering his home park has been different the last 3 seasons, no I am not concerned about any trend.
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Post by zegometer on Jun 5, 2016 6:51:56 GMT -5
The trend looks like the cheers and boos, not the park itself. #3rdpersonperspective
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 5, 2016 7:19:55 GMT -5
Considering his home park has been different the last 3 seasons, no I am not concerned about any trend. So a guy has a trend for 3.5 years and you suddenly think it will change? Based on what?
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 5, 2016 7:21:27 GMT -5
The trend looks like the cheers and boos, not the park itself. #3rdpersonperspective Certainly could be. Some guys just get a better night sleep being at home than being in a hotel room on the road. But whatever the reason is, there is now over 3 years of data that shows he performs better at home. That absolutely needs to be taken into account
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Post by zegometer on Jun 5, 2016 8:13:45 GMT -5
So would you make him the #2 starter if we got home field advantage in the playoffs?
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Post by bigbeast15 on Jun 5, 2016 8:20:39 GMT -5
I don't consider the home-road a trend when it covers 3 different home parks.
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 5, 2016 12:05:30 GMT -5
So would you make him the #2 starter if we got home field advantage in the playoffs? Yes. The team is better with Lackey on the road, Lester at home than they are with Lester at home and Lackey on the road.
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