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Post by lajoiesghost on Jun 27, 2024 10:00:23 GMT -5
If we had to put a number on how many more wins we'd have with top-tier closer numbers in the 9th, what would that number be? The same as tbe number of blown saves, minus a few? Or add to that number due to situational moments, like coming into the top of the 9th in a non save situation where we're down by 1 run, leading to fewer comebacks? I see ryan helsley has 1 blown save as the leader. 10th spot goes to bedbar with 3 blown saves. As a team we have blown 17 saves. By that not perfect but reasonable-ish logic, using our 17 blown saves and subtracting a bednar 3 blown saves, thats a 14 freaking game difference. Gotta score runs to win the game, but if we cut it in half like there's a 50/50 chance to win if we didnt blow the save, its 7 games. +7 wins puts us close to the brewers. We'd be contenders instead of long shots. Hindsight is 20/20, but damn. We should've picked up a pen arm the moment alzolay went down, or before. Alzolay has 5 of those blown saves himself. So it wasn't exactly going well before he got hurt either. I actually was good with him as the closer and expected much better results. Maybe 2024 will end up being just an outlier for him. |
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 10:15:13 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but Busch is not the type of player the Cubs should be targeting. Don't get me wrong, he's fine as a Cub, but lets not forget why the Dodgers moved him and it wasn't just about positioning. That being said, Busch has been ok, but the Dodgers aren't regretting that move one bit (neither are the Cubs). The Cubs need to be targeting game in and game out impactful players. Enough with these middling deals. Starting targeting the big dawgs. Here are your top 10 wRC+ leaders in the MLB for 2024, in order: Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Gunnar, Tucker, Harper, Ozuna, Profar, Mookie and Freeman. Of these 10, 8..... EIGHT have either tested free agency or changed teams (7 changed teams). This is why the Cubs are where they are. They look for the runt of the litter and hope he grows to be the big dawg. <<Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Gunnar, Tucker, Harper, Ozuna, Profar, Mookie and Freeman. Of these 10, 8..... EIGHT have either tested free agency or changed teams (7 changed teams). >> the ones that have been available Judge was a guy they should have gone after but I don't think he was ever leaving NY. Ohtani they went after and from what we've been told were ready to pay the predicted 500+ contract Soto , they should go after , but I sadly don't think they even will Harper they should have gone after but the timing didn't line up with the payroll bind they were already in Ozuna , is a guy that even the Braves at one point wanted to dump Profar .....who the hell saw that coming ? Mookie , I'm sure they would have gone after but would of had a hard time beating what LA gave up at the time Freeman they absolutely should have gone after and his contract 162 million would be in thier comfort zone , I have no idea why they didn't . I have no problem with them targeting Busch , and like I said , I don't think they "targeted" him, I think he kind of just became available once Ohtani was signed and LA would have been dumb to leave him in AAA again after winning Milb player of the year. Busch has the potential to be an impact type bat , he was a top 50 prospect for a reason. |
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 10:18:14 GMT -5
If we had to put a number on how many more wins we'd have with top-tier closer numbers in the 9th, what would that number be? The same as tbe number of blown saves, minus a few? Or add to that number due to situational moments, like coming into the top of the 9th in a non save situation where we're down by 1 run, leading to fewer comebacks? I see ryan helsley has 1 blown save as the leader. 10th spot goes to bedbar with 3 blown saves. As a team we have blown 17 saves. By that not perfect but reasonable-ish logic, using our 17 blown saves and subtracting a bednar 3 blown saves, thats a 14 freaking game difference. Gotta score runs to win the game, but if we cut it in half like there's a 50/50 chance to win if we didnt blow the save, its 7 games. +7 wins puts us close to the brewers. We'd be contenders instead of long shots. Hindsight is 20/20, but damn. We should've picked up a pen arm the moment alzolay went down, or before. Alzolay has 5 of those blown saves himself. So it wasn't exactly going well before he got hurt either. I actually was good with him as the closer and expected much better results. Maybe 2024 will end up being just an outlier for him. who knows at what point he was hurt , could have been pitching bad because of an issue that just worsened , I'm pretty sure, but I could be wrong that his velocity was a little down all season. They should have done more with the pen last winter, Neris was a nice thought , but to bank on Alzolay being a given as a closer based just off last season was pretty risky. |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 27, 2024 10:50:55 GMT -5
I'm sorry, but Busch is not the type of player the Cubs should be targeting. Don't get me wrong, he's fine as a Cub, but lets not forget why the Dodgers moved him and it wasn't just about positioning. That being said, Busch has been ok, but the Dodgers aren't regretting that move one bit (neither are the Cubs). The Cubs need to be targeting game in and game out impactful players. Enough with these middling deals. Starting targeting the big dawgs. Here are your top 10 wRC+ leaders in the MLB for 2024, in order: Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Gunnar, Tucker, Harper, Ozuna, Profar, Mookie and Freeman. Of these 10, 8..... EIGHT have either tested free agency or changed teams (7 changed teams). This is why the Cubs are where they are. They look for the runt of the litter and hope he grows to be the big dawg. <<Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Gunnar, Tucker, Harper, Ozuna, Profar, Mookie and Freeman. Of these 10, 8..... EIGHT have either tested free agency or changed teams (7 changed teams). >> the ones that have been available Judge was a guy they should have gone after but I don't think he was ever leaving NY. Ohtani they went after and from what we've been told were ready to pay the predicted 500+ contract Soto , they should go after , but I sadly don't think they even will Harper they should have gone after but the timing didn't line up with the payroll bind they were already in Ozuna , is a guy that even the Braves at one point wanted to dump Profar .....who the hell saw that coming ? Mookie , I'm sure they would have gone after but would of had a hard time beating what LA gave up at the time Freeman they absolutely should have gone after and his contract 162 million would be in thier comfort zone , I have no idea why they didn't . I have no problem with them targeting Busch , and like I said , I don't think they "targeted" him, I think he kind of just became available once Ohtani was signed and LA would have been dumb to leave him in AAA again after winning Milb player of the year. Busch has the potential to be an impact type bat , he was a top 50 prospect for a reason. Look at almost everyone you commented on... "probably should have gone after" Isn't that crazy? The Cubs just won't do it. Think about it, just about everyone on that list was need at the time they were available. I'm not pressing for Profar or Ozuna, just that they were on the list and changed teams. |
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 11:10:59 GMT -5
<<Judge, Ohtani, Soto, Gunnar, Tucker, Harper, Ozuna, Profar, Mookie and Freeman. Of these 10, 8..... EIGHT have either tested free agency or changed teams (7 changed teams). >> the ones that have been available Judge was a guy they should have gone after but I don't think he was ever leaving NY. Ohtani they went after and from what we've been told were ready to pay the predicted 500+ contract Soto , they should go after , but I sadly don't think they even will Harper they should have gone after but the timing didn't line up with the payroll bind they were already in Ozuna , is a guy that even the Braves at one point wanted to dump Profar .....who the hell saw that coming ? Mookie , I'm sure they would have gone after but would of had a hard time beating what LA gave up at the time Freeman they absolutely should have gone after and his contract 162 million would be in thier comfort zone , I have no idea why they didn't . I have no problem with them targeting Busch , and like I said , I don't think they "targeted" him, I think he kind of just became available once Ohtani was signed and LA would have been dumb to leave him in AAA again after winning Milb player of the year. Busch has the potential to be an impact type bat , he was a top 50 prospect for a reason. Look at almost everyone you commented on... "probably should have gone after" Isn't that crazy? The Cubs just won't do it. Think about it, just about everyone on that list was need at the time they were available. I'm not pressing for Profar or Ozuna, just that they were on the list and changed teams. I know , but I can also see reasons why they didn't with some , the timing with Harper was off, they were already in a bind and contemplating who if any of their own to extend. Freeman to me is the biggest head scratcher, there are really no red flags with that guy on or off the field and he was on the contract level they seem to be ok with and they needed to replace Rizzo. Lefty power, great team guy, very consistent , good glove ........ |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 27, 2024 12:11:57 GMT -5
The timing with Harper was perfect, Tommy wants reasonable contacts and at the time 300 million was ridiculous. That contract is a bargain now. Tommy was a coward.
The Cubs literally traded for Castellanos the trade deadline after that offseason.
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Post by TheChico on Jun 27, 2024 13:47:05 GMT -5
The timing with Harper was perfect, Tommy wants reasonable contacts and at the time 300 million was ridiculous. That contract is a bargain now. Tommy was a coward. The Cubs literally traded for Castellanos the trade deadline after that offseason. Harper is still a force in the middle the of lineup for the Phillies today and show zero signs of slowing down and now his contract looks team friendly. Was the timing perfect? Likely not but it is no excuse at the same time for not signing him either, he was a piece the "offense is broken and need to fix it" really needed at the time. Tom was a total coward for not signing him, Harper by himself would of brought enough revenue to cover the fucking the luxury tax penalty and would of been more postseason games too which equals more revenue. When you have a chance to get a generational star who was on (Still is) a HOF path at age 26 you do whatever it takes to get him especially when you are a major market team and the guy showed desire play in Wrigley. Failing to go after Harper is the biggest failure in the Tom Ricketts ERA as it still haunts the team today. |
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Post by kfidd on Jun 27, 2024 14:04:09 GMT -5
100% correct on all the Harper chatter. Time to make up for it by signing Soto this offseason.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 14:17:45 GMT -5
The timing with Harper was perfect, Tommy wants reasonable contacts and at the time 300 million was ridiculous. That contract is a bargain now. Tommy was a coward. The Cubs literally traded for Castellanos the trade deadline after that offseason. no it wasn't perfect unless they wanted to go way over the luxury tax and stay there, and like I said , they were also contemplating who of their own to try to keep. they started the 2019 season with a 203 million payroll and the tax line was 206 , they ended up going over it and finished with a 237 luxury tax hit. Yes at an AAV luxury tax hit of 25.38 he is a steal as far as Tommy being chicken shit regarding 300 million deals, thats pretty obvious when they have not even had the balls to go to 200 and let me make myself clear , I'm not agreeing with them not going after Harper , I'm just saying I see the reason(s) they did not. Tommy has to put his big boy pants on and buy Jed a set of nueticals if they are serious about winning , because they are going to need to go beyond that 175 milliion-ish comfort zone if they ever want to have a superstar type that can carry a team. |
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Post by TheChico on Jun 27, 2024 14:17:56 GMT -5
100% correct on all the Harper chatter. Time to make up for it by signing Soto this offseason. Zero chance that happening, same situation as last time and here are some of the excuses: Where do we play Soto with Suzuki in RF? Soto Contract will put the team over the luxury tax and give little money to fill the rest of the roster One player cannot turn a team into serious contenders, I rather sign multiple good players with that money instead. What about the end of his contract? It could be dead money and prevent them from making moves 8-10 years from now. Soto seems like an asshole, we don't need that personality on this team, you cannot win with players like that We got prospects in the minors on the cheap that can use instead of signing Soto and maybe one day they can produce like him too. Soto is going to demand way to much money which sounds greedy and the Cubs will end up overpaying, you should not overpay for players even if they are superstars. I rather sign Teoscar Hernandez, he will be cheaper and less years which leaves more money to sign other players, Hernandez can put up just as good numbers as Soto. I can go on and on, Soto is a major need and the superstar they need but not happening, not with this ownership and FO, they are short sighted to that shit and don't get with inflation in 5 years there is a really good chance Soto Contract looks like a Bargain just like Harpers. Good chunk of Cubs fans (not really on this board) will praise the FO and ownership on not paying Soto the insane amount but will be sad 5 years from now when the Cubs are still a middling team while Soto continues his path to the HOF with a team who are perennial contenders who had the balls to give him the contract he demanded. Rinse and repeat. |
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 14:53:27 GMT -5
The pisser of it is. Jed will spend money but is afraid of the long term commitment it takes to land the top talent.So instead of the random number I'm using 50 million he has to work with he will sign the Mancini,'s and guys like that and spend that 50 million signing 4-5 guys who are fringe players when he could be signing an elite impact type talent. So it's not really about being cheap it's spending in stupidity as he keeps using the term spend wisely or sensibly. I think the Heyward contract shriveled up what little balls he had.
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Post by Mike on Jun 27, 2024 15:01:07 GMT -5
14 Hendricks + 9.5 Smyly + 8 Neris + 7 Mancini + 3.25 Barnhart + 3 Bote = 44.825 AAV for Soto, I assume we use Gomes' 6 on another catcher. Even if Belli opts IN (.765 OPS) 27.5M, we can move Hoerner's 11.5 (gets hurt all the time or plays hurt-Busch puts up similar production w/RISP)...
44.80 = Soto
28.00 = Swanson
27.50 = Bellinger
21.00 = Happ
19.00 = Suzuki
18.00 = Taillon
13.25 = Imanaga
======= 171.55
241 lux tax - 171.55 = 69.45 for arb + insurance + minors.
Current OPS
1.00 - DH Soto (L)
.794 - 2B Busch (L)
.782 - RF Suzuki
.762 - 1B Bellinger (L)
.741 - CF Tauchman (L)
.732 - LF Happ (S)
.704 - 3B Morel
.661 - SS Swanson
.521 - C Amaya
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Post by TheChico on Jun 27, 2024 15:25:55 GMT -5
14 Hendricks + 9.5 Smyly + 8 Neris + 7 Mancini + 3.25 Barnhart + 3 Bote = 44.825 AAV for Soto, I assume we use Gomes' 6 on another catcher. Even if Belli opts IN (.765 OPS) 27.5M, we can move Hoerner's 11.5 (gets hurt all the time or plays hurt-Busch puts up similar production w/RISP)... 44.80 = Soto 28.00 = Swanson 27.50 = Bellinger 21.00 = Happ 19.00 = Suzuki 18.00 = Taillon 13.25 = Imanaga ======= 171.55 241 lux tax - 171.55 = 69.45 for arb + insurance + minors. Current OPS 1.00 - DH Soto (L) .794 - 2B Busch (L) .782 - RF Suzuki .762 - 1B Bellinger (L) .741 - CF Tauchman (L) .732 - LF Happ (S) .704 - 3B Morel .661 - SS Swanson .521 - C Amaya Tons of money falling off the books in 2 years too to reset the tax while being a competive ballclub. It makes to much sense. |
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 15:26:44 GMT -5
14 Hendricks + 9.5 Smyly + 8 Neris + 7 Mancini + 3.25 Barnhart + 3 Bote = 44.825 AAV for Soto, I assume we use Gomes' 6 on another catcher. Even if Belli opts IN (.765 OPS) 27.5M, we can move Hoerner's 11.5 (gets hurt all the time or plays hurt-Busch puts up similar production w/RISP)... 44.80 = Soto 28.00 = Swanson 27.50 = Bellinger 21.00 = Happ 19.00 = Suzuki 18.00 = Taillon 13.25 = Imanaga ======= 171.55 241 lux tax - 171.55 = 69.45 for arb + insurance + minors. Current OPS 1.00 - DH Soto (L) .794 - 2B Busch (L) .782 - RF Suzuki .762 - 1B Bellinger (L) .741 - CF Tauchman (L) .732 - LF Happ (S) .704 - 3B Morel .661 - SS Swanson .521 - C Amaya YES but it's the length of contracts that seems to scare Jed. But then he will keep spending what the AAV is of the shit players every year instead of a legit star which seems to come out to be about the same anyway. |
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Post by Mike on Jun 27, 2024 15:37:14 GMT -5
I can see Soto, 26 in 2025 wanting an equivalent contract to Ohtani, 29 without the deferrals (460.815 / 10) 44.80 AAV x 12 = 537.60, which is very close to the rumored-number offer to Ohtani.
...
But, yeah, I expect us to go after Tyler O'Neil.
We're going to get extremely left-handed in the near future and .262/.359/.550 148wRC+ in the 4 hole looks attractive, but the wart with O'Neil is .221/.295/.464 vs RHP.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 27, 2024 19:31:23 GMT -5
I can see Soto, 26 in 2025 wanting an equivalent contract to Ohtani, 29 without the deferrals (460.815 / 10) 44.80 AAV x 12 = 537.60, which is very close to the rumored-number offer to Ohtani. ... But, yeah, I expect us to go after Tyler O'Neil. We're going to get extremely left-handed in the near future and .262/.359/.550 148wRC+ in the 4 hole looks attractive, but the wart with O'Neil is .221/.295/.464 vs RHP. Not sure how Soto thinks he's worth getting an Ohtani contract , does he plan on pitching too ? |
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Post by Mike on Jun 27, 2024 23:59:43 GMT -5
He thinks his age outweighs the pitching.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 28, 2024 0:17:32 GMT -5
If we had to put a number on how many more wins we'd have with top-tier closer numbers in the 9th, what would that number be? The same as tbe number of blown saves, minus a few? Or add to that number due to situational moments, like coming into the top of the 9th in a non save situation where we're down by 1 run, leading to fewer comebacks? I see ryan helsley has 1 blown save as the leader. 10th spot goes to bedbar with 3 blown saves. As a team we have blown 17 saves. By that not perfect but reasonable-ish logic, using our 17 blown saves and subtracting a bednar 3 blown saves, thats a 14 freaking game difference. Gotta scoreth runs to win the game, but if we cut it in half its 7 games. +7 wins puts us close to the brewers. Hell even if you go ultra conservative with the number and say you win 10 of those 17 it puts the Cubs at 47-33 , the Brewers are 48-33 Reds 5 (24 SvO - Last) Brewers 8 (37 SvO) Cardinals 9 (42 SvO - First) Mariners 9 Everybody else is Double Digits. Orioles 14 Astros 12 (Hader's Team) Blown Saves - Inning Lieter (2) 7th 8th* Wesneski (1) 8th# Smyly (2) 7th 9th Lovelady (1) 6th Brewer (2) 7th# 9th Almonte (1) 6thNerris (4) 8th# 9th 9th 9th Alzolay (5) 9th 8th* 9th 9th 8th * Last AB # Cubs Win Red - Same Game Helsley's ERA in May-Jun is (3.60) His WHIP is (1.50) / 20 Games. How would that play if 15 of his 20 appearances were 1 Run Games? We don't know. Cubs (36 SvO) 8 of our 17 Blown Saves came before our opponent's last AB or the 9th. Are you saying it's "ultra conservative" to figure that if the Cubs had a "Hader or Helsley", we would only have 7 Blown Saves? Fun fact: Every one of Helsley's 36 Appearances have been for exactly, 1.0 Innings. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 28, 2024 2:28:08 GMT -5
If we had to put a number on how many more wins we'd have with top-tier closer numbers in the 9th, what would that number be? The same as tbe number of blown saves, minus a few? Or add to that number due to situational moments, like coming into the top of the 9th in a non save situation where we're down by 1 run, leading to fewer comebacks? I see ryan helsley has 1 blown save as the leader. 10th spot goes to bedbar with 3 blown saves. As a team we have blown 17 saves. By that not perfect but reasonable-ish logic, using our 17 blown saves and subtracting a bednar 3 blown saves, thats a 14 freaking game difference. Gotta score runs to win the game, but if we cut it in half its 7 games. +7 wins puts us close to the brewers. Hell even if you go ultra conservative with the number and say you win 10 of those 17 it puts the Cubs at 47-33 , the Brewers are 48-33 Converting 5 or 6 save opportunities would have put the Cubs in playoff position. All I know is, if Hader was a Cub they wouldn't have 17 blown saves. But this goes back to the penny-pinching philosophy that is the Cubs. How can team spend $226 million and be this devoid of All-Stars. |
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Post by TheChico on Jun 28, 2024 2:57:22 GMT -5
I can see Soto, 26 in 2025 wanting an equivalent contract to Ohtani, 29 without the deferrals (460.815 / 10) 44.80 AAV x 12 = 537.60, which is very close to the rumored-number offer to Ohtani. ... But, yeah, I expect us to go after Tyler O'Neil. We're going to get extremely left-handed in the near future and .262/.359/.550 148wRC+ in the 4 hole looks attractive, but the wart with O'Neil is .221/.295/.464 vs RHP. Not sure how Soto thinks he's worth getting an Ohtani contract , does he plan on pitching too ? Aaron Judge gets 40 million a year and technically Judge is the better player and more marketable of the two. So I don’t really see Soto surpassing that . It is likely he gets 13/500-525 type contract at best. |
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