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Post by batman66 on Jul 15, 2024 8:34:05 GMT -5
Predictive stats suggested he would regress, he hasn’t. They still predict that he will regress. He is quite the gamble. Until we have examples of players who can beat those odds and consistently produce year in and year out despite poor metrics I am not interested in spending big on such a player. They came back to bite both Bellinger and the Cubs and chances are it’ll bite Paredes and his team as well. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/cubs-reportedly-interested-in-danny-jansen.htmlReports of renewed interest in Jansen. I don’t see any world where it makes sense for us to buy a rental player at this point, the Cubs certainly haven’t earned that faith this season. But also, Jansen has been brutal offensively since his hot ~6 week start to the season. When we were talking about Jansen as a trade target before it was heavily expressed how much it would make sense to grab him then when he was hot, the season was young, and we desperately needed more production from catcher. Only 1 of those 3 things is true now. I don’t see the point in this. If we want to commit resources to a catcher while we are 5 games under .500 on July 14th let it be for one who we can have around for the next several seasons as a legit starter. Not a rental on the downswing. The only reason may be he might be fairly cheap with him having a down season and free agency looming. And if he plays well then a possible moderate extension? Because I also don't see the point in trading for any rentals. I'd much rather they trade for Diaz , who is a better bat and he's been better at throwing out runners but would cost more in trade to pry away from the Rockies and has 2 more seasons of control I think .
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Post by kfidd on Jul 15, 2024 10:08:48 GMT -5
I don’t catch as much of the games as I’d like to. Anyone mind sharing their opinion on Morel defensively compared to early in the season? Maybe not that first week where he had what felt like 10 errors, but just in general. Has he looked more passable defensively as the season has gone on in your eyes?
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Post by batman66 on Jul 15, 2024 10:36:19 GMT -5
I don’t catch as much of the games as I’d like to. Anyone mind sharing their opinion on Morel defensively compared to early in the season? Maybe not that first week where he had what felt like 10 errors, but just in general. Has he looked more passable defensively as the season has gone on in your eyes? Yes and No , he's made 3 errors since the beginning of June and has 9 on the season which isn't really a lot , some other examples Chapman has 10 but has almost a 100 more chances. Arenado has 6 but has about 75 more chances . Bregaman has 8 and about 60 more chances but nobody expects him to be in those guys class anyway. It just seems he doesn't make a lot of the plays he could/should and he's been the DH a lot more than playing 3b so far this month .
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Post by kfidd on Jul 15, 2024 11:03:35 GMT -5
I don’t expect much movement from the front office this deadline. Which irritates me but whatever.
PCA and Busch should both be playing every day. That leaves Happ, Bellinger, and Suzuki for the outfield corners and DH. That eliminates DH as an option for Morel. Are you trying to win games and secure a playoff spot? You’ve got decide if Morel is a net positive at third base or not. If he isn’t then you have to find a third baseman somewhere. For as good as Mastrobuonican look for brief stretches we all know he can look just as equally brutal for those same stretches. You can’t (or at least shouldn’t be able to) paint yourself as competitive if Mastro is your expected everyday third baseman.
Third base and catcher. Those are your two biggest non-closer opportunities to improve for the second half. I’m going to guess they’ll stick with Morel for at least the rest of this season (which I’m fine with) but catcher desperately needs attention. I still think Langeliers should be that guy but I’d bet they’ll pray for two months of Jansen getting hot and being the difference maker they need.
2B Hoerner 1B Busch DH Suzuki LF Happ RF Bellinger 3B Morel C Jansen SS Swanson CF PCA
It’s not what I want to see but I think this is a fairly likely outcome.
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Post by foolforthecity on Jul 15, 2024 11:18:35 GMT -5
Unless Jansen wants to come to Chicago, them I’m not giving up good value for a rental. This team is way to inconsistent to hope for a playoff run.
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Post by Mike on Jul 15, 2024 15:36:05 GMT -5
Jansen's bat has fallen off a cliff lately.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 15, 2024 16:33:42 GMT -5
Jansen's bat has fallen off a cliff lately. It sure has , that and him inching closer to free agency should have his price tag a lot lower than it was last season. I don't want them trading for rentals though unless it only costs a fringe prospect who has no real path to Wrigley.
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Post by TheChico on Jul 16, 2024 8:57:32 GMT -5
I refuse to buy into this somewhat of a turnaround, the shitty version of this team will come back again like they always do. So no rentals and Just open spots for development of the young players.
I keep saying the deadline should be used to find long term needs and get creative if a deal like that is not out there there just stand pat or trade the guys who will not be around after the season
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Post by fine09 on Jul 16, 2024 11:16:15 GMT -5
I don’t catch as much of the games as I’d like to. Anyone mind sharing their opinion on Morel defensively compared to early in the season? Maybe not that first week where he had what felt like 10 errors, but just in general. Has he looked more passable defensively as the season has gone on in your eyes? Yes and No , he's made 3 errors since the beginning of June and has 9 on the season which isn't really a lot , some other examples Chapman has 10 but has almost a 100 more chances. Arenado has 6 but has about 75 more chances . Bregaman has 8 and about 60 more chances but nobody expects him to be in those guys class anyway. It just seems he doesn't make a lot of the plays he could/should and he's been the DH a lot more than playing 3b so far this month . On another note I don't think anyone could play a better 3rd. base than Mastrobuoni has over the past few weeks. He flat out saved numerous runs in one game last week & it seems he has highlight plays all the time. I know he can't hit like a typical 3rd. baseman needs to but damn he can really make gold glove plays - and Morel certainly cannot do that.
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Post by fine09 on Jul 16, 2024 11:18:23 GMT -5
I refuse to buy into this somewhat of a turnaround, the shitty version of this team will come back again like they always do. So no rentals and Just open spots for development of the young players. I keep saying the deadline should be used to find long term needs and get creative if a deal like that is not out there there just stand pat or trade the guys who will not be around after the season You are probably correct which really sucks because we do have one of the best overall starting pitching staff in all of MLB which is ridiculous with all the injuries & a struggling Hendricks (part of the time anyway).
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Post by batman66 on Jul 16, 2024 15:11:35 GMT -5
Yes and No , he's made 3 errors since the beginning of June and has 9 on the season which isn't really a lot , some other examples Chapman has 10 but has almost a 100 more chances. Arenado has 6 but has about 75 more chances . Bregaman has 8 and about 60 more chances but nobody expects him to be in those guys class anyway. It just seems he doesn't make a lot of the plays he could/should and he's been the DH a lot more than playing 3b so far this month . On another note I don't think anyone could play a better 3rd. base than Mastrobuoni has over the past few weeks. He flat out saved numerous runs in one game last week & it seems he has highlight plays all the time. I know he can't hit like a typical 3rd. baseman needs to but damn he can really make gold glove plays - and Morel certainly cannot do that. I know he had a couple great games, but after that one real good game when he had 2 or 3 highlight reel plays the next game I think he botched a couple easy plays and one cost them a DP when he couldn't get the ball out of his glove and kind of double clutched making the throw too late and then the inning blew up.
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Post by cfin on Jul 16, 2024 15:47:13 GMT -5
I refuse to buy into this somewhat of a turnaround, the shitty version of this team will come back again like they always do. So no rentals and Just open spots for development of the young players. I keep saying the deadline should be used to find long term needs and get creative if a deal like that is not out there there just stand pat or trade the guys who will not be around after the season I agree. And now's the time to get rid of some dead weight. Some players are hot and seemingly would be moveable now versus two months ago.
I keep going back to Happ. I know he has a no-trade clause and maybe he invokes it, I don't know. But I'd still use his hot streak and the desperation that a team (like the Braves) might have to acquire another outfielder.
And I still say the main thing your after is salary relief, to get out from under some of these contracts. Now... if you can swing a trade for a long-term answer at 3B, you do that. But otherwise you're just looking to get out from under some of these contracts.
Could the Cubs make a run and get into the playoffs? I suppose it's possible. I just don't think it's likely. They have too many teams to leap over in the wildcard race. And even if they did claim a wildcard spot, they would expend so much energy doing that, that they wouldn't have anything left to give in the playoffs.
I still say call up the kids and see what you've got. I don't think the team is that far from being competitive, but you need to find out what you've got so you know what you don't have.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 16, 2024 17:03:37 GMT -5
I remain skeptical of any potential Happ trade. Earlier in the season when he was struggling the thought was bench him effectively forcing a trade or riding the pine but the problem then was who wants to trade for a struggling multi year 20m commitment?
Now he’s been hot and certain teams could well be interested but there is still the no trade clause. Incase anyone missed it he recently commented on the no trade clause and why he pushed for it. He specifically mentions loving Chicago both for him and his family and the stability that comes from no trade protections. Now of course players say all manners of things to the media and Happ certainly seems like the diplomatic type but he has been consistent with this messaging since signing his extension. He likes Chicago as a stable home for his family. Not sure that’s a guy interested in moving anywhere.
It still begs the question beyond that of why would we want to move him. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, Happ is a positive on the lineup and offense but he’s a “boring” player who does a lot of things well without being the the master of any. He often feels like a less productive player than he actually is. Of course he is streaky and had that brutal stretch earlier in the season but most non-elite hitters are streaky to varying degrees.
He is what he is. I’m okay with them moving him if they decide to and he’s willing but I don’t think the Cubs are ever really losing games (or seasons) because of Happ. The problems in recent years have been the infield corners more than anything. I loved the Busch trade since day one and think we have a keeper there. Figure out third base and to a lesser (but still very important) extent catcher and DH and this offense could be just fine.
Long story short I think it’s best to consider ranking the positions that most need upgraded production from to realize where we really stand with Happ. Where are the true priorities? I’d argue it all starts with 3B > C > DH. Figure those out and all of a sudden Happ’s 121 wRC+ feels like a boon.
But whatever. I just want them to pick a lane and run with it. Unfortunately Bellinger’s presence on this roster really complicates their ability to move forward in either direction but they made their bed with that one, gotta find a way to live with it now.
Lastly and ultimately meaningless but when the rumors were abound connecting Philly with Bellinger I went to their subreddit to see what their fans had to say. Overwhelmingly they were uninterested in Bellinger at his contract relative to performance but there was a lot of love for Happ in that thread. So maybe? Kinda sorta? Ehhh, I still really doubt it.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 16, 2024 17:38:58 GMT -5
Looking at the production of third basemen this season, it furthers emphasizes for me that unless we wanted to swing big in a Baltimore trade sending pitching for either Westburg or Mayo we are best off just riding the potential of Morel until/if either second base opens up for him or they determine Shaw is capable and ready for third base in the bigs. The options for proven alternatives simply aren’t there.
Ranking third basemen by OPS in 2024
1. Devers - .977 2. Smith (Texas) - .861 3. Ramirez - .842 4. Bohm - .830 5. Paredes - .823 6. Westburg - .814
That’s literally it for third baseman putting up an .800+ OPS this season. There is no one we could acquire that could potentially step in as an immediate difference maker for us outside of Baltimore’s kiddos and even then they are both young and still proving themselves.
If you can get one? Those are dice worth rolling. But realistically I think you have to ride out Morel for at least the remainder of this season. I still think there is some intriguing potential there and no other option is likely worth it. And once Bellinger returns DH is likely lost anyways.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 16, 2024 17:42:36 GMT -5
I refuse to buy into this somewhat of a turnaround, the shitty version of this team will come back again like they always do. So no rentals and Just open spots for development of the young players. I keep saying the deadline should be used to find long term needs and get creative if a deal like that is not out there there just stand pat or trade the guys who will not be around after the season I agree. And now's the time to get rid of some dead weight. Some players are hot and seemingly would be moveable now versus two months ago.
I keep going back to Happ. I know he has a no-trade clause and maybe he invokes it, I don't know. But I'd still use his hot streak and the desperation that a team (like the Braves) might have to acquire another outfielder.
And I still say the main thing your after is salary relief, to get out from under some of these contracts. Now... if you can swing a trade for a long-term answer at 3B, you do that. But otherwise you're just looking to get out from under some of these contracts.
Could the Cubs make a run and get into the playoffs? I suppose it's possible. I just don't think it's likely. They have too many teams to leap over in the wildcard race. And even if they did claim a wildcard spot, they would expend so much energy doing that, that they wouldn't have anything left to give in the playoffs.
I still say call up the kids and see what you've got. I don't think the team is that far from being competitive, but you need to find out what you've got so you know what you don't have.
<<And I still say the main thing your after is salary relief, to get out from under some of these contracts>> Salary relief should not be an issue with this team , this is not Tampa Bay. The Cubs have 150 committed towards 2025 contracted players and that counts Bellinger, that gives them ample money to fix issues. Sure freeing up another 20.3 by moving Happ or 17 bu moving Suzuki would give them even more but what kind of message are you sending to the guys here now that want to win and you're selling off key players to get out of the reamaining 40 and 34 million on their deals , that's not going to go over very well. I'm not totally against moving one of them , but it would be to fill a need, not for salary relief over 2 years of contractual obligations , I'd understand if these guys have 5-6 years left but they have 2 more which should not really hinder future plans.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 16, 2024 17:46:39 GMT -5
I remain skeptical of any potential Happ trade. Earlier in the season when he was struggling the thought was bench him effectively forcing a trade or riding the pine but the problem then was who wants to trade for a struggling multi year 20m commitment? Now he’s been hot and certain teams could well be interested but there is still the no trade clause. Incase anyone missed it he recently commented on the no trade clause and why he pushed for it. He specifically mentions loving Chicago both for him and his family and the stability that comes from no trade protections. Now of course players say all manners of things to the media and Happ certainly seems like the diplomatic type but he has been consistent with this messaging since signing his extension. He likes Chicago as a stable home for his family. Not sure that’s a guy interested in moving anywhere. It still begs the question beyond that of why would we want to move him. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, Happ is a positive on the lineup and offense but he’s a “boring” player who does a lot of things well without being the the master of any. He often feels like a less productive player than he actually is. Of course he is streaky and had that brutal stretch earlier in the season but most non-elite hitters are streaky to varying degrees. He is what he is. I’m okay with them moving him if they decide to and he’s willing but I don’t think the Cubs are ever really losing games (or seasons) because of Happ. The problems in recent years have been the infield corners more than anything. I loved the Busch trade since day one and think we have a keeper there. Figure out third base and to a lesser (but still very important) extent catcher and DH and this offense could be just fine. Long story short I think it’s best to consider ranking the positions that most need upgraded production from to realize where we really stand with Happ. Where are the true priorities? I’d argue it all starts with 3B > C > DH. Figure those out and all of a sudden Happ’s 121 wRC+ feels like a boon. But whatever. I just want them to pick a lane and run with it. Unfortunately Bellinger’s presence on this roster really complicates their ability to move forward in either direction but they made their bed with that one, gotta find a way to live with it now. Lastly and ultimately meaningless but when the rumors were abound connecting Philly with Bellinger I went to their subreddit to see what their fans had to say. Overwhelmingly they were uninterested in Bellinger at his contract relative to performance but there was a lot of love for Happ in that thread. So maybe? Kinda sorta? Ehhh, I still really doubt it. <<Now he’s been hot and certain teams could well be interested but there is still the no trade clause. Incase anyone missed it he recently commented on the no trade clause and why he pushed for it. He specifically mentions loving Chicago both for him and his family and the stability that comes from no trade protections. Now of course players say all manners of things to the media and Happ certainly seems like the diplomatic type but he has been consistent with this messaging since signing his extension. He likes Chicago as a stable home for his family. Not sure that’s a guy interested in moving anywhere.>> I don't doubt any of that , he wants to stay here and probably has no interest in being traded to another team. But what player ever ended up staying with a team for more than a couple months after they came to him and said look we want to move on and plan to trade you? Yes guys have rejected trades to certain teams , but I'm pretty sure most if not all of the time , they still end up being traded. They are not going to stay where they were not wanted.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 16, 2024 17:51:04 GMT -5
Cubs obtain minor league pitcher Jesús Tinoco from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for cash considerations.
The 29-year-old right-hander has been solid in Triple-A this season between the Royals and Rangers franchises. In 21 outings, he has a 3.86 ERA and 1.32 WHIP with 37 strikeouts in 28 innings.
Tinoco is expected to head to the minors and with Palencia also headed back to Iowa, the Cubs have an open roster spot, which they will fill prior to Friday’s second-half opener at Wrigley Field.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 16, 2024 19:30:40 GMT -5
I agree. And now's the time to get rid of some dead weight. Some players are hot and seemingly would be moveable now versus two months ago.
I keep going back to Happ. I know he has a no-trade clause and maybe he invokes it, I don't know. But I'd still use his hot streak and the desperation that a team (like the Braves) might have to acquire another outfielder.
And I still say the main thing your after is salary relief, to get out from under some of these contracts. Now... if you can swing a trade for a long-term answer at 3B, you do that. But otherwise you're just looking to get out from under some of these contracts.
Could the Cubs make a run and get into the playoffs? I suppose it's possible. I just don't think it's likely. They have too many teams to leap over in the wildcard race. And even if they did claim a wildcard spot, they would expend so much energy doing that, that they wouldn't have anything left to give in the playoffs.
I still say call up the kids and see what you've got. I don't think the team is that far from being competitive, but you need to find out what you've got so you know what you don't have.
<<And I still say the main thing your after is salary relief, to get out from under some of these contracts>> Salary relief should not be an issue with this team , this is not Tampa Bay. The Cubs have 150 committed towards 2025 contracted players and that counts Bellinger, that gives them ample money to fix issues. Sure freeing up another 20.3 by moving Happ or 17 bu moving Suzuki would give them even more but what kind of message are you sending to the guys here now that want to win and you're selling off key players to get out of the reamaining 40 and 34 million on their deals , that's not going to go over very well. I'm not totally against moving one of them , but it would be to fill a need, not for salary relief over 2 years of contractual obligations , I'd understand if these guys have 5-6 years left but they have 2 more which should not really hinder future plans. I agree, and that’s in big part because I don’t think the production of Happ or Suzuki are easily replaceable as some may think. If we had a big time corner outfield prospect that was knocking on the door I’d be more inclined for such movement. But even with that said I do see the merit to simply clearing roster spaces. I know we disagree on Bellinger but he is the prime example to me. Any opportunity to remove him from the roster I’m game. Busch and PCA deserve the starting opportunities over him at their respective positions (if we were a competitive team battling for first in the division I’d ease up on that regarding PCA and CF, but we aren’t). His production is lesser than Happ and Suzuki so simply sliding him over to a corner doesn’t make sense, especially considering his weakest attribute is his slug. And while the defense he’d provide in right over Suzuki is welcome that means Suzuki is DH which immediately places big constraints on players like Morel, Canario, and Caissie getting opportunities there. Least of all is the money which I don’t give a flying fuck about, but his production relative to his earnings is very poor. I don’t think there’s a chance of moving him prior to the deadline so my biggest hope is he blows up in the second half and sets himself up to opt out. That alone immediately clears significant congestion on the roster relative to our farm system. But that also just lends itself to the idea that most of the position players are set for the second half already and only two of them are rookies. Splurging on as you’ve indicated many times a long term fit at one of our glaring holes (3B, C) makes nothing but sense to me. Mayo, Westburg, Langeliers? Pony up if any are available. Or as has also been discussed Ford out of Seattle makes lots of sense. But use some of that farm that’s otherwise “blocked” and fill the holes with long term pieces dagummit!
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Post by cfin on Jul 16, 2024 21:57:25 GMT -5
It still begs the question beyond that of why would we want to move him. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, Happ is a positive on the lineup and offense but he’s a “boring” player who does a lot of things well without being the the master of any. He often feels like a less productive player than he actually is. Of course he is streaky and had that brutal stretch earlier in the season but most non-elite hitters are streaky to varying degrees. That's kind of the issue. The lineup lacks any other player that can carry the team on his back, and that magnifies the issues with Happ. If you had a Judge or Ohtani in your lineup, then yes, Happ isn't that much of an issue (still not sure he's worth $20M... but that's a separate discussion). I think the main point I'm trying to make is that now is the time to move him (if he'll waive his NTC - which maybe he won't). If you wait until the offseason to try and move him, other teams aren't going to be as desperate and there's less of an incentive for Happ to waive his NTC because who knows who is going to be a playoff contender going into next season? If you can't move Happ, then try to move Suzuki - who also has a no-trade clause. The point is, you're trying to take advantage of the situation and other teams being more willing to add players and the player's perhaps being more willing to waive their NTC to play on a playoff team. 3B and DH are definitely blackholes on this team. But I also agree with you that there's not a lot to be had for 3B. And for whatever reason the Cubs seem less inclined to use a dedicated DH spot, and prefer to just rotate players. One outside of the box thinking... if you can't move Happ... maybe consider moving him to 3B. This would allow you to get a more power bat for LF. While Happ's defense in LF is certainly not bad, I don't think it's so other-wordly as to preclude him from moving to a different position. Will he be a worse defender at 3B than he is in LF? Probably. Will he be better than Morel? I kind of think so. Not really ideal, but hopefully by the time Happ's contract runs out after 2026 a better 3Bman has been identified. Shifting Happ to 3B, might allow you to target someone like Jasson Dominguez from the Yankees (if you're not sold on Canario or Caissie) and put him in LF. I'm just thinking outside of the box.
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Post by batman66 on Jul 17, 2024 6:36:11 GMT -5
It still begs the question beyond that of why would we want to move him. I’ve said before and I’ll say it again, Happ is a positive on the lineup and offense but he’s a “boring” player who does a lot of things well without being the the master of any. He often feels like a less productive player than he actually is. Of course he is streaky and had that brutal stretch earlier in the season but most non-elite hitters are streaky to varying degrees. That's kind of the issue. The lineup lacks any other player that can carry the team on his back, and that magnifies the issues with Happ. If you had a Judge or Ohtani in your lineup, then yes, Happ isn't that much of an issue (still not sure he's worth $20M... but that's a separate discussion). I think the main point I'm trying to make is that now is the time to move him (if he'll waive his NTC - which maybe he won't). If you wait until the offseason to try and move him, other teams aren't going to be as desperate and there's less of an incentive for Happ to waive his NTC because who knows who is going to be a playoff contender going into next season? If you can't move Happ, then try to move Suzuki - who also has a no-trade clause. The point is, you're trying to take advantage of the situation and other teams being more willing to add players and the player's perhaps being more willing to waive their NTC to play on a playoff team. 3B and DH are definitely blackholes on this team. But I also agree with you that there's not a lot to be had for 3B. And for whatever reason the Cubs seem less inclined to use a dedicated DH spot, and prefer to just rotate players. One outside of the box thinking... if you can't move Happ... maybe consider moving him to 3B. This would allow you to get a more power bat for LF. While Happ's defense in LF is certainly not bad, I don't think it's so other-wordly as to preclude him from moving to a different position. Will he be a worse defender at 3B than he is in LF? Probably. Will he be better than Morel? I kind of think so. Not really ideal, but hopefully by the time Happ's contract runs out after 2026 a better 3Bman has been identified. Shifting Happ to 3B, might allow you to target someone like Jasson Dominguez from the Yankees (if you're not sold on Canario or Caissie) and put him in LF. I'm just thinking outside of the box. I mentioned moving Happ to 3b a few times last season. He has played 32 games there and like you say he might be better than Morel.
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