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Post by bryzzobrist on Jul 2, 2024 16:48:41 GMT -5
Justin Steele has 3 arbitration years left. Javier Assed doesn't reach his first arbitration year until 2026. If Jed trades either one of them he needs to be fired immediately. I would consider Taillon but only if I'm blown away. Or does Jed not want to compete in '25? there is no way he trades Steele or Assad , and I doubt Taillon , but it's possible if the gets something that's a long term need. 2024 Did not go as planned, but he's not going to take another step backwards on purpose. He may be on a bit of thin ice after this season as it is. Rickets wasn't thrilled with missing the playoffs in a transition year, he's certainly not going to be happy doing it in one they thought they could make it. Its funny how we've been projected to not win the last couple seasons and the FO acts shocked when we dont. How about get a winner together on paper before acting so surprised. |
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Post by chubbycub on Jul 2, 2024 19:37:54 GMT -5
I’ve always felt like Hoerner is overrated by most Cubs fans. He’s been the most reliable hitter we’ve had three years running? His wRC+ from 2022-2024 is 104. That’s exactly the problem with this roster, we’ve got a bunch of decent to good players but no glue guys to rally behind and actually build around. Hoerner is a good player but most of his value comes from his defense and speed. Not a bad thing but not some irreplaceable player we build around. If there was a good deal out there I’d absolutely be open to moving him. There isn’t a player on this roster I wouldn’t be willing to move. Well, if you're going to throw sabremetrics at me, I'm semi impotent because I immediately go to the old school stats like batting average and OBP.. But when I said reliable I meant if you had to choose between Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Swanson and Hoerner to just put the bat on the ball for a win, who would you want up there? All he has to do is HIT the ball. |
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Post by kfidd on Jul 2, 2024 20:07:42 GMT -5
I’ve always felt like Hoerner is overrated by most Cubs fans. He’s been the most reliable hitter we’ve had three years running? His wRC+ from 2022-2024 is 104. That’s exactly the problem with this roster, we’ve got a bunch of decent to good players but no glue guys to rally behind and actually build around. Hoerner is a good player but most of his value comes from his defense and speed. Not a bad thing but not some irreplaceable player we build around. If there was a good deal out there I’d absolutely be open to moving him. There isn’t a player on this roster I wouldn’t be willing to move. Well, if you're going to throw sabremetrics at me, I'm semi impotent because I immediately go to the old school stats like batting average and OBP.. But when I said reliable I meant if you had to choose between Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Swanson and Hoerner to just put the bat on the ball for a win, who would you want up there? All he has to do is HIT the ball. That’s fine. I’m not challenging whether I think you are right in that or not. But it doesn’t change that if your most reliable hitter is a guy slashing .274/.338/.378 that speaks more to the problems with your offense as opposed to him being a guy you build around. Again, Hoerner is fine. You can win with guys like Hoerner. But that has more to do with his biggest value attribute (defense) than anything he brings to the plate. The Cubs need players they can actually build around and then support them with the Hoerners, Happs, etc. |
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Post by Mike on Jul 2, 2024 20:19:03 GMT -5
Swanson was the 9-hole hitter on a championship team (probably moved up vs LHP).
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Post by chubbycub on Jul 2, 2024 21:19:49 GMT -5
Well, if you're going to throw sabremetrics at me, I'm semi impotent because I immediately go to the old school stats like batting average and OBP.. But when I said reliable I meant if you had to choose between Happ, Suzuki, Bellinger, Swanson and Hoerner to just put the bat on the ball for a win, who would you want up there? All he has to do is HIT the ball. That’s fine. I’m not challenging whether I think you are right in that or not. But it doesn’t change that if your most reliable hitter is a guy slashing .274/.338/.378 that speaks more to the problems with your offense as opposed to him being a guy you build around. Again, Hoerner is fine. You can win with guys like Hoerner. But that has more to do with his biggest value attribute (defense) than anything he brings to the plate. The Cubs need players they can actually build around and then support them with the Hoerners, Happs, etc. So you can only build around power, not defense and speed. Got it. I'll be sure to discuss that with Whitey Herzog when I see him. God I hate being a Cubs fan when all we have is hope and if.
I know, I know, it's a different game nowadays. But it's really not. See the ball, hit the ball and throw strikes, but not down the middle of the freakin plate.
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Post by kfidd on Jul 2, 2024 21:37:24 GMT -5
That’s fine. I’m not challenging whether I think you are right in that or not. But it doesn’t change that if your most reliable hitter is a guy slashing .274/.338/.378 that speaks more to the problems with your offense as opposed to him being a guy you build around. Again, Hoerner is fine. You can win with guys like Hoerner. But that has more to do with his biggest value attribute (defense) than anything he brings to the plate. The Cubs need players they can actually build around and then support them with the Hoerners, Happs, etc. So you can only build around power, not defense and speed. Got it. I'll be sure to discuss that with Whitey Herzog when I see him. God I hate being a Cubs fan when all we have is hope and if.
I know, I know, it's a different game nowadays. But it's really not. See the ball, hit the ball and throw strikes, but not down the middle of the freakin plate.
That’s not at all what I said. We were talking about offensive contributions. The majority of Hoerner’s value is on the defensive end as well as his plus speed when he is able to get on. But again, we were discussing the offense. Hoerner is an average offensive player in this league and has been his entire career. He is a good player but he is not the kind of hitter you build around. That doesn’t mean you must replace him. But today’s game is an offensive one and the Cubs desperately need offense. A great defensive but average second baseman? A good player, but not one I’m married to. And that is where my original response to your post came from, where you called Hoerner a player you build around. I disagree. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jul 3, 2024 3:38:23 GMT -5
That’s fine. I’m not challenging whether I think you are right in that or not. But it doesn’t change that if your most reliable hitter is a guy slashing .274/.338/.378 that speaks more to the problems with your offense as opposed to him being a guy you build around. Again, Hoerner is fine. You can win with guys like Hoerner. But that has more to do with his biggest value attribute (defense) than anything he brings to the plate. The Cubs need players they can actually build around and then support them with the Hoerners, Happs, etc. So you can only build around power, not defense and speed. Got it. I'll be sure to discuss that with Whitey Herzog when I see him. God I hate being a Cubs fan when all we have is hope and if.
I know, I know, it's a different game nowadays. But it's really not. See the ball, hit the ball and throw strikes, but not down the middle of the freakin plate.
Hoyer has built this team around starting pitching and defense especially the middle defense. He failed to get a closer for the bullpen and he sacrificed offense for defense. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jul 3, 2024 4:05:19 GMT -5
So you can only build around power, not defense and speed. Got it. I'll be sure to discuss that with Whitey Herzog when I see him. God I hate being a Cubs fan when all we have is hope and if.
I know, I know, it's a different game nowadays. But it's really not. See the ball, hit the ball and throw strikes, but not down the middle of the freakin plate.
That’s not at all what I said. We were talking about offensive contributions. The majority of Hoerner’s value is on the defensive end as well as his plus speed when he is able to get on. But again, we were discussing the offense. Hoerner is an average offensive player in this league and has been his entire career. He is a good player but he is not the kind of hitter you build around. That doesn’t mean you must replace him. But today’s game is an offensive one and the Cubs desperately need offense. A great defensive but average second baseman? A good player, but not one I’m married to. And that is where my original response to your post came from, where you called Hoerner a player you build around. I disagree. I disagree with your idea that Hoerner is not a player you build around. The Cubs have always had a problem with finding players to fill the top of the order role. He was a high OBP guy who is a stolen base threat which is exactly what you want leading off the game. Hoerner has never hit for power, he has hit 26 HRs in 1907 career ABs. Let him do what he does best. |
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Post by kfidd on Jul 3, 2024 7:20:44 GMT -5
Do what he has always done best? His OBP is .338 for his career, .330 this season. I understand you are referencing the past but how far back do you want to go, 2021 when it was .382 in just 170 plate appearances?
People have wanted to see him leadoff because of his high contact ability and speed. The problem is he’s never been a high on base guy and that’s what you want from a leadoff hitter first and foremost. He’s always been an aggressive hitter early in the count so he sees very few pitches. That has never been a good leadoff hitting trait. I’ve long said here that our best leadoff option is Happ and my mind hasn’t wavered on that. He is better at getting on base and he also does it while seeing more pitches per plate appearance. Remember that the only time the leadoff hitter is actually guaranteed to leadoff is in the first at bat of the game. After that it’s moot and all you want is on base ability there.
Pitches per plate appearance
Hoerner
2022: 3.57
2023: 3.69
2024: 3.65
Happ
2022: 4.03
2023: 4.15
2024: 4.27
Again, I’m not saying Hoerner is a bad player. He just isn’t an irreplaceable player, and that’s exactly what a player you build around is. The best teams have guys you immediately identify as the elite talents that make opposing teams go brrrrrr. The closest the Cubs have to that is Steele in my opinion. With more time and consistency Imanaga could join him. But neither of those are hitters and that’s what we are talking about here.
We all want Hoerner to be that guy. He’s the homegrown kid with flashy defense and blazing speed. But he’s also 27 years old with one just one full season of 500+ plate appearances under his belt. His highest OPS mark was .751 in a quarter of a season played back in 2021. It’s steadily decreased since then. Stop trying to make him out to be more than he is, a decent-good player that primarily provides value on defense and on the basepaths. That’s cool, that’s valuable, but he isn’t some elite player we build around. Ian Happ provides positive defensive value while being a better offensive player and he isn’t that either. Doesn’t mean we can’t win with those kinds of players but we certainly aren’t winning because of them either.
This is all about word choice. I’m not bashing Hoerner and his defense or speed. The Cubs need those, especially now when we’ve seen what a poor fundamental team this is already. But you build with guys like Hoerner and Happ. You build around guys like Judge, Ramirez, Soto, Harper, etc. Once you’ve got those guys you still have to get the rest of it right, nothing is guaranteed in this game. But it’s hard to go anywhere until you get that part right first.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Jul 3, 2024 9:42:48 GMT -5
Dear Jed,
I would be fine with trading the entire lineup. Keep most of the startring staff and half the bullpen. Trade the rest of the team.
Signed: A disgruntled fan
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 3, 2024 10:39:22 GMT -5
If the Cubs are going to move Shaw to 2b, Shaw is my favorite prospect in the system right now to be elite at the MLB level, then I'm all for Mayo, I just don't think Taillon gets it done. As a matter of fact, I don't think the O's have any intention of moving Mayo, regardless of how much talent they have in their system. Where are they going to play Mayo though? They could use pitching more than another corner IF I'm not saying Taillon alone would get them Mayo , I'm thinking package deal with others thrown in , mainly prospects since both farms are pretty deep at certain spots and weak at others. The O's would be fine moving on from Mateo. They'd move Westburg to 2nd and Mayo plays 3rd. Based on what I read and what the O's front office recently said about Mayo, I doubt he's going anywhere. |
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Post by TheChico on Jul 3, 2024 11:02:37 GMT -5
Where are they going to play Mayo though? They could use pitching more than another corner IF I'm not saying Taillon alone would get them Mayo , I'm thinking package deal with others thrown in , mainly prospects since both farms are pretty deep at certain spots and weak at others. The O's would be fine moving on from Mateo. They'd move Westburg to 2nd and Mayo plays 3rd. Based on what I read and what the O's front office recently said about Mayo, I doubt he's going anywhere. Holliday will be back and will be a star one day at SS, when that happens, Gunner will move to 3B which forces the Orioles to move Mayo to 1b who already have a really good 1B in Mountcastle who has 2.5 years of control remaining so where do you play Mayo? I mean you can I guess try to DH Mayo but is the best use of his talents? The Orioles don't have to trade Mayo and pretty sure they can figure it out, but I do believe they for sure will listen to offers for him but they are going to want a impact piece to increase their chances to make a deep playoff run now. Cubs will likely have to deal Steele but I can see the O's flipping him to the A's for Mason Miller too. |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 3, 2024 11:07:53 GMT -5
Gunnar is not leaving SS. Jackson was playing 2B when they called him up and he's pretty much exclusively been at 2B in AAA this year.
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Post by cfin on Jul 3, 2024 11:40:52 GMT -5
The O's would be fine moving on from Mateo. They'd move Westburg to 2nd and Mayo plays 3rd. Based on what I read and what the O's front office recently said about Mayo, I doubt he's going anywhere. Holliday will be back and will be a star one day at SS, when that happens, Gunner will move to 3B which forces the Orioles to move Mayo to 1b who already have a really good 1B in Mountcastle who has 2.5 years of control remaining so where do you play Mayo? I mean you can I guess try to DH Mayo but is the best use of his talents? The Orioles don't have to trade Mayo and pretty sure they can figure it out, but I do believe they for sure will listen to offers for him but they are going to want a impact piece to increase their chances to make a deep playoff run now. Cubs will likely have to deal Steele but I can see the O's flipping him to the A's for Mason Miller too. This is why I suggested a Steele for Mayo trade. But, again, I'm not sure if I'm really sold at Mayo at 3B. That's the real question for me. If you trade Steele for Mayo with the idea of going hard after Burnes in the offseason, then the question becomes: Is the team better with Mayo at 3B and rotation of Burnes, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton or Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton in the rotation and a blackhole at 3B? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm glad I'm not the one that has to make that decision. BUT... I wouldn't dismiss outright just because it involves moving Steele.
You wouldn't have to trade Hoerner in this scenario. Ideally you'd cut some of the deadweight by trading at least one of Happ or Suzuki (not necessarily at this trade deadline), Bellinger, and Morel. You won't get a whole lot back, but maybe you can get a promising AA starting pitching prospect that could provide rotation depth in 2026 if not in 2025. You can replace Happ/Suzuki with Canario/Caissie in the outfield. Your infield is set with Busch, Hoerner, Mayo, and Swanson. DH is still up in the air - but you already have a more balanced lineup. I might consider hanging on to Tauchman as a 4th outfielder. Vazquez becomes your backup infielder. You might see if you can build a package between Shaw and Triantos for Langelier, although I'm just not sure how motivated the A's will be to move him.
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Post by TheChico on Jul 3, 2024 11:43:27 GMT -5
Gunnar is not leaving SS. Jackson was playing 2B when they called him up and he's pretty much exclusively been at 2B in AAA this year. If that is the case, then Westburg will play 3B |
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Post by irishcubfan on Jul 3, 2024 12:14:05 GMT -5
Clearly, Hoyer's master plan is to tank for Ethan Holliday, the best of the Holliday's.
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Post by TheChico on Jul 3, 2024 12:23:52 GMT -5
Clearly, Hoyer's master plan is to tank for Ethan Holliday, the best of the Holliday's. All he has to do is just Stand Pat and mission acomplished. |
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Post by TheChico on Jul 3, 2024 12:28:36 GMT -5
Holliday will be back and will be a star one day at SS, when that happens, Gunner will move to 3B which forces the Orioles to move Mayo to 1b who already have a really good 1B in Mountcastle who has 2.5 years of control remaining so where do you play Mayo? I mean you can I guess try to DH Mayo but is the best use of his talents? The Orioles don't have to trade Mayo and pretty sure they can figure it out, but I do believe they for sure will listen to offers for him but they are going to want a impact piece to increase their chances to make a deep playoff run now. Cubs will likely have to deal Steele but I can see the O's flipping him to the A's for Mason Miller too. This is why I suggested a Steele for Mayo trade. But, again, I'm not sure if I'm really sold at Mayo at 3B. That's the real question for me. If you trade Steele for Mayo with the idea of going hard after Burnes in the offseason, then the question becomes: Is the team better with Mayo at 3B and rotation of Burnes, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton or Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton in the rotation and a blackhole at 3B? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm glad I'm not the one that has to make that decision. BUT... I wouldn't dismiss outright just because it involves moving Steele.
You wouldn't have to trade Hoerner in this scenario. Ideally you'd cut some of the deadweight by trading at least one of Happ or Suzuki (not necessarily at this trade deadline), Bellinger, and Morel. You won't get a whole lot back, but maybe you can get a promising AA starting pitching prospect that could provide rotation depth in 2026 if not in 2025. You can replace Happ/Suzuki with Canario/Caissie in the outfield. Your infield is set with Busch, Hoerner, Mayo, and Swanson. DH is still up in the air - but you already have a more balanced lineup. I might consider hanging on to Tauchman as a 4th outfielder. Vazquez becomes your backup infielder. You might see if you can build a package between Shaw and Triantos for Langelier, although I'm just not sure how motivated the A's will be to move him.
When the Cubs are under preforming at this level when they are supposed to be a playoff contender after a rebuild, then you got to make some serious changes and cannot be closed minded to anything. I don't want to move Steele at all, but everybody has a price tag when you are in last place team. If Steele trade helps solve other long term blackholes and willing to put your big boy paints on in free agency then get aggressive but be smart about it. |
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Post by batman66 on Jul 3, 2024 12:38:20 GMT -5
This is why I suggested a Steele for Mayo trade. But, again, I'm not sure if I'm really sold at Mayo at 3B. That's the real question for me. If you trade Steele for Mayo with the idea of going hard after Burnes in the offseason, then the question becomes: Is the team better with Mayo at 3B and rotation of Burnes, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton or Steele, Imanaga, Taillon, Assad, Wicks, Brown, Horton in the rotation and a blackhole at 3B? I don't know the answer to that, and I'm glad I'm not the one that has to make that decision. BUT... I wouldn't dismiss outright just because it involves moving Steele.
You wouldn't have to trade Hoerner in this scenario. Ideally you'd cut some of the deadweight by trading at least one of Happ or Suzuki (not necessarily at this trade deadline), Bellinger, and Morel. You won't get a whole lot back, but maybe you can get a promising AA starting pitching prospect that could provide rotation depth in 2026 if not in 2025. You can replace Happ/Suzuki with Canario/Caissie in the outfield. Your infield is set with Busch, Hoerner, Mayo, and Swanson. DH is still up in the air - but you already have a more balanced lineup. I might consider hanging on to Tauchman as a 4th outfielder. Vazquez becomes your backup infielder. You might see if you can build a package between Shaw and Triantos for Langelier, although I'm just not sure how motivated the A's will be to move him.
When the Cubs are under preforming at this level when they are supposed to be a playoff contender after a rebuild, then you got to make some serious changes and cannot be closed minded to anything. I don't want to move Steele at all, but everybody has a price tag when you are in last place team. If Steele trade helps solve other long term blackholes and willing to put your big boy paints on in free agency then get aggressive but be smart about it. I'm not trading Steele. I get the concerns with being a 2 oitch pitcher but to me he is Jon Lester version 2 and he will find a way. I'd look to extend him, not trade him. There are plenty of other players in the system who can be traded to fill a bigger need. Steele is not one I'm trading unless the O's would part with Holliday and they won't do that. |
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Post by irishcubfan on Jul 3, 2024 12:43:11 GMT -5
When the Cubs are under preforming at this level when they are supposed to be a playoff contender after a rebuild, then you got to make some serious changes and cannot be closed minded to anything. I don't want to move Steele at all, but everybody has a price tag when you are in last place team. If Steele trade helps solve other long term blackholes and willing to put your big boy paints on in free agency then get aggressive but be smart about it. I'm not trading Steele. I get the concerns with being a 2 oitch pitcher but to me he is Jon Lester version 2 and he will find a way. I'd look to extend him, not trade him. There are plenty of other players in the system who can be traded to fill a bigger need. Steele is not one I'm trading unless the O's would part with Holliday and they won't do that. Used to be on board with extending but given his age from a ruthless business perspective would just do yearly arb with him, get the best years out of him and let him walk. Or trade him, but that would require ownership and FO to have an honest assessment of where they are at as an organization. Trading Steele may be the quickest way to rebuild quicker even though the rebuild word can't be used as it is a naughty word, retool, retool. |
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