|
Post by kfidd on Oct 5, 2023 8:10:58 GMT -5
Alonso just changed his agent to Scott Boras. Ugh. I don’t believe you make any such trade like this without the intention of extending him, and now the Boras factor… Regarding Boras, I also don’t think the front office is going to have any interest on waiting until mid January to seal in their big free agent additions. There’s too much risk in it. If the rumors of Bellinger’s decision lingering well into the new year are true, and with Boras as his agent it certainly is plausible, I think the front office would be prudent to make other plans. This was a huge talking point here when many were Ohtani was much more actively discussed, they didn’t want the front office to focus so much on Ohtani that they end up neglecting Bellinger and see him go elsewhere. Now it needs to be considered how major the market for Bellinger could be that putting off other big acquisitions or ideas so they can enter a bidding war for Bellinger that may not be resolved until mid January at the earliest could be a recipe for massive disaster. I think the Cubs safest bet to a strong off-season of roster improvement should begin with Yamamoto. The market for him should be aggressive as well, but we all know the narratives of why he makes so much sense. Very young, elite talent, purely monetary cost. Be very aggressive on Yamamoto and commit to beating all other parties. Get him inked early in the off-season and then let the rest of the plan A-B-C situations unfold. Bellinger had a great year. I don’t think the front office is dumb enough to put all other plans on hold just because Boras is his agent and will drag this out until mid January and beyond. Well so much for the Jesse Rogers talk that he'd sign a moderate type extension with the Cubs because of the relationship they have with his agent. I think the Cubs will make a strong early push for Bellinger in the exclusive time frame they have to negotiate with him , but it needs to be an all out market value offer and not some half assed offer expecting a discount. I don't think they want to wait out a long free agency and then possibly lose out on other options and possible trades waiting on Bellinger. Regarding Alonso , my guess is he probably now stays in NY and signs an extension , they seem to have no issues signing Boras clients. I agree on Yamamoto but that's going to be a really hot market like you said so as much as they might want him , he has to want them. I mean, any free agent has to want to be with the club they are negotiating with. That’s not unique to Yamamoto or Bellinger or anyone. It’s up to the front office to be strong and committed enough to their pitch and offer for a player. I think anything less than a maximum effort push for Yamamoto would be disappointing from our front office. Regarding Bellinger and blowing him away in the exclusive negotiating window. This is Boras we are talking about, I don’t think there is any precedent of him allowing that to happen. Want to sign him in that window? Think what’s the furthest a team like the Giants or Yankees will go with their offer. Could it get to 10/280? I think it could, and that’s based on what transpired last offseason with the spending craze. Boras knows that too. So you want to sign him in that window you’re going to have to go to at least those lengths, and probably even beat it. I think the front office would love to have Bellinger back, but not at any lengths. For as good as he was last season there are still warning signs that suggest he is a big risk at a 10 year deal. They’d be better off applying that towards a guy like Yamamoto or Soto, two guys who have stayed on the healthy and consistently dominated their respective leagues.
|
|
|
Post by kfidd on Oct 5, 2023 8:27:09 GMT -5
Gotta throw out there one more, too. Don’t forget about Ohtani. No one really knows where his market will be now, nor his intentions for his next contract. It was a forgone conclusion before that he was a 10-15 year mega contract guarantee. If his market takes a huge hit knowing his future as a two way player is uncertain, will he simply be okay with that and still sign the best max offer he can get? Or will he look for a shorter deal to re-establish himself in the next couple years and try again?
If it’s the latter, I think the front office would be ALL for that. I think in their minds they’d like to avoid too many big long term deals. A shorter one, even with a high annual salary, helps them navigate luxury tax considerations far more than a decade long commitment. If Shohei is open to something like a 5 year deal with opt outs after years 2-3-4 I think the front office would be very interested. That would be a HUGE bat to have without the long term commitment, helping bridge the gap to further prospect development.
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 8:31:22 GMT -5
Well so much for the Jesse Rogers talk that he'd sign a moderate type extension with the Cubs because of the relationship they have with his agent. I think the Cubs will make a strong early push for Bellinger in the exclusive time frame they have to negotiate with him , but it needs to be an all out market value offer and not some half assed offer expecting a discount. I don't think they want to wait out a long free agency and then possibly lose out on other options and possible trades waiting on Bellinger. Regarding Alonso , my guess is he probably now stays in NY and signs an extension , they seem to have no issues signing Boras clients. I agree on Yamamoto but that's going to be a really hot market like you said so as much as they might want him , he has to want them. I mean, any free agent has to want to be with the club they are negotiating with. That’s not unique to Yamamoto or Bellinger or anyone. It’s up to the front office to be strong and committed enough to their pitch and offer for a player. I think anything less than a maximum effort push for Yamamoto would be disappointing from our front office. Regarding Bellinger and blowing him away in the exclusive negotiating window. This is Boras we are talking about, I don’t think there is any precedent of him allowing that to happen. Want to sign him in that window? Think what’s the furthest a team like the Giants or Yankees will go with their offer. Could it get to 10/280? I think it could, and that’s based on what transpired last offseason with the spending craze. Boras knows that too. So you want to sign him in that window you’re going to have to go to at least those lengths, and probably even beat it. I think the front office would love to have Bellinger back, but not at any lengths. For as good as he was last season there are still warning signs that suggest he is a big risk at a 10 year deal. They’d be better off applying that towards a guy like Yamamoto or Soto, two guys who have stayed on the healthy and consistently dominated their respective leagues. I meant it in the way the Cubs could go balls out and throw a Brinks truck at the guy and it doesn't matter if he doesn't want to play here and there will be fans pissed off they didn't sign him thinking it wasn't a good enough offer. I'm not saying it will happen or it would be easy , but they pretty much need to ask Belli what will it take and then give it to him if there is an answer or move on. we both agree they can't wait until Feb for him to decide, this is an important off season and waiting on one guy they will miss out on others. I don't see them going 10 years , they will probably offer no more than 5-7 but hit him with a higher AAV. Regarding Soto , I just don't see the Cubs going into 500 million territory for anybody , I did for Ohtani before he hurt his arm but not for Soto , he doesn't have the international marketabilty they would get with Ohtani to gain some of that money back.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2023 8:38:42 GMT -5
Regarding signing Yamamoto & Soto, they could collectively be known as Yamasoto. 🤷♂️🤷♂️
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 8:40:33 GMT -5
Gotta throw out there one more, too. Don’t forget about Ohtani. No one really knows where his market will be now, nor his intentions for his next contract. It was a forgone conclusion before that he was a 10-15 year mega contract guarantee. If his market takes a huge hit knowing his future as a two way player is uncertain, will he simply be okay with that and still sign the best max offer he can get? Or will he look for a shorter deal to re-establish himself in the next couple years and try again? If it’s the latter, I think the front office would be ALL for that. I think in their minds they’d like to avoid too many big long term deals. A shorter one, even with a high annual salary, helps them navigate luxury tax considerations far more than a decade long commitment. If Shohei is open to something like a 5 year deal with opt outs after years 2-3-4 I think the front office would be very interested. That would be a HUGE bat to have without the long term commitment, helping bridge the gap to further prospect development. Yep , there is so much unknown now and no word what type of contarct he will be after. I still don't think they have a chance though , I think it's going to be the Dodgers no matter what kind of contract he's after.
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Oct 5, 2023 8:59:02 GMT -5
You’re not getting him for Killian and Mervis. More like Brown and Alcantra. No way It depends , if he's traded as a 1 year rental there is no way they are getting that much for him. If he's traded with a negotiation window for an extension , they maybe. BleacherReport article proposes a trade for Alonso looking like this.. Chicago Cubs get 1B Pete Alonso and C Kevin Parada; New York Mets get RHP Cade Horton and 1B Matt MervisHa! No thanks. I don't know that I'd give them just Mervis for 1 single year of the now Boras client that hit .217 this year. Here is a thought, what would he have hit this year if they hadn't banned the shift?? Nope. I'd rather roll with Mervis or resign Jeimer to another deal & let him play 1st.
|
|
|
Post by 2mileshighillini on Oct 5, 2023 9:01:22 GMT -5
Bruce Levine: www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2023/10/02/pete-alonso-interest-cubs-1/Jesse Rogers: www.si.com/mlb/cubs/news/new-york-mets-slugger-pete-alonso-wants-to-come-chicago-cubs-matt9BL: "Cubs are going to do EVERYTHING they can, to land Alonso" JR: "He’s surveyed now that the Mets have been broken up and saw that the Cubs don’t have a first baseman ready to rock and roll. They have a pretty good team, and a great market."
Here we go. 1) Alonso already knows the Mets "put him out there" at the deadline. And 1 of those teams they had discussions with, was the Cubs. 2) Alonso was pissed that the Mets fired Showalter. 3) Alonso likes us The smoke is already there. But as others said, it doesn't make sense unless we sign Bellinger too. Or, at least someone else to buffer the loss of his numbers. So, let's say this does happen. AND we sign Bellinger too. You know, like a big market team. What would have to happen? You guys thinking it's a good idea to have the next 2 highest paid players platooning, are on the wrong track. That's not going to happen. This is not Happ hating. It's business. Happ makes the most money. His position is the position that is most expendable and replaceable. Those who are freaking about losing prospects for Alonso must be creaming their pants at the thought of the amount of prospects we'd land for Happ. No? What's that? Alonso is worth the moon in prospect value... But Happ ain't worth squat? Why do you think that is? Here it is: Pete Alonso is the best hitter in this League. His career OBP (.342) is 91 points higher than his career BA (.251) His WORST HR year is (37). Bryant's BEST HR year was (39). The ONLY year he slugged under .500, was the Covid year (.490) And his numbers are while playing half his games in Citi Field. He will hit his 500th HR, at age 33 (even though he lost a year to Covid). The time to trade for any guy like that is when they're at their lowest value. That's now. If it means we lose Happ, then we lose Happ. You tell Happ he's not starting. There. He instantly gives you a list of teams he'd go to. You tell him those teams don't want him. He asks, "who does?" Then, we make a deal. We take Happ's money and spend it on Bellinger (or whoever) and we acquire a prospect, while we're at it. This also opens up a more obtainable route for Canario or Mervis or whoever. Basically, We're replacing Tauchman & Happ, with PCA & Alonso. That's a slam dunk. Suddenly, we're the talk of the Off-Season. And if the Pitching questions are answered, we'd be the Division Favorites. That's how much better it would make us. We wanna get better, right?
|
|
|
Post by rvn11 on Oct 5, 2023 9:08:43 GMT -5
The thing that throws me in all the Alonso talk is that usually the deal most speculated on early in the offseason is one that doesn't happen. Like it's propped up for the benefit of teams and players.
|
|
|
Post by kfidd on Oct 5, 2023 9:13:55 GMT -5
The thing that throws me in all the Alonso talk is that usually the deal most speculated on early in the offseason is one that doesn't happen. Like it's propped up for the benefit of teams and players. We do see that play out often. I also don’t put any stock into the Alonso wants to be a Cub talk. If he believes that let him say it directly, not hear it from Bruce Levine of all people. I think the Mets will listen on offers but won’t move him unless it benefits their rebuild. Mervis and Killian doesn’t benefit their rebuild. They’ll float it out there Alonso and money can be had for a premium prospect cost just as they did with Scherzer and Verlander. After another early disappointing exit for the Brewers I could see them eventually taking the bait. But they won’t move him just for the sake of moving him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them eventually extend him this winter.
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 9:22:04 GMT -5
It depends , if he's traded as a 1 year rental there is no way they are getting that much for him. If he's traded with a negotiation window for an extension , they maybe. BleacherReport article proposes a trade for Alonso looking like this.. Chicago Cubs get 1B Pete Alonso and C Kevin Parada; New York Mets get RHP Cade Horton and 1B Matt MervisHa! No thanks. I don't know that I'd give them just Mervis for 1 single year of the now Boras client that hit .217 this year. Here is a thought, what would he have hit this year if they hadn't banned the shift?? Nope. I'd rather roll with Mervis or resign Jeimer to another deal & let him play 1st. The Cubs are not trading Horton. I'd possibly do Ferris and Mervis for those two though if Alonso is going to come with a window to extend him but I think the Mets would want a pitcher closer to being ready and I'd do Brown then . I'd love to get Parada and I'm well past having issues with Alonso's .217 average, I don't think it's an indicator of the hitter he actually is and I think he'd be a beast of a hitter in Wrigley and they'd have to put a protective screen on the video board.
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 9:24:00 GMT -5
The thing that throws me in all the Alonso talk is that usually the deal most speculated on early in the offseason is one that doesn't happen. Like it's propped up for the benefit of teams and players. That's true and it's not even the off season and stories are popping up online like crazy and we are on page 7 of this thread and the Cubs haven't even been done for a week yet
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 9:29:28 GMT -5
The thing that throws me in all the Alonso talk is that usually the deal most speculated on early in the offseason is one that doesn't happen. Like it's propped up for the benefit of teams and players. We do see that play out often. I also don’t put any stock into the Alonso wants to be a Cub talk. If he believes that let him say it directly, not hear it from Bruce Levine of all people. I think the Mets will listen on offers but won’t move him unless it benefits their rebuild. Mervis and Killian doesn’t benefit their rebuild. They’ll float it out there Alonso and money can be had for a premium prospect cost just as they did with Scherzer and Verlander. After another early disappointing exit for the Brewers I could see them eventually taking the bait. But they won’t move him just for the sake of moving him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them eventually extend him this winter. How don't Mervis and Kilian benefit their rebuild ? They say they are focusing more on 2025 and beyond than 2024. Both are near major league ready and in their system would be ranked a lot higher than they are in the Cubs and the Mets lack near ready pitching prospects. Now that he's hired Boras , as much as people love to say his clients won't sign extensions and will go to free agency , I think Alonso now probably stays and ends up signing an extension. Stearns might not want to rattle his new fan base, Alonso is popular and trading him won't be and the Mets have quite a few Boras clients so they have a solid past of working with him.
|
|
|
Post by 2mileshighillini on Oct 5, 2023 9:34:27 GMT -5
Boras - 2022
Carlos Correa: $350M Xander Bogaerts: $280M Brandon Nimmo: $162M Masataka Yoshida: $90M Taijuan Walker: $72M Sean Manaea: $25M Cody Bellinger: $17.5M Matt Boyd: $10M James Paxton: $4M
All signed by Dec 15.
|
|
|
Post by rvn11 on Oct 5, 2023 10:00:32 GMT -5
This is not Happ hating. It's business. Happ makes the most money. His position is the position that is most expendable and replaceable. Those who are freaking about losing prospects for Alonso must be creaming their pants at the thought of the amount of prospects we'd land for Happ. No? What's that? Alonso is worth the moon in prospect value... But Happ ain't worth squat? Why do you think that is? While I think Happ has value, I don't think it's anywhere near Alonso at the moment. Alonso is an elite bat, the type that teams crave and you cannot easily replace. Happ has a great bat, but you can generally find a somewhat suitable veteran free agent replacement for comparable (or less) money, and without prospects or the multiyear commitment.
Additionally, you're looking at buyers vs sellers. Teams will inquire on Alonso, the Mets can play offers off teams and up the price tag. Should the Cubs acquire him and then have to move Happ, they're at a disadvantage as they'd be seeking a buyer and that usually ends up in getting less than market value. If teams are pounding down the Cubs door to get Happ that's one thing, but I've not heard they're doing that at the moment.
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Oct 5, 2023 10:09:40 GMT -5
This is not Happ hating. It's business. Happ makes the most money. His position is the position that is most expendable and replaceable. Those who are freaking about losing prospects for Alonso must be creaming their pants at the thought of the amount of prospects we'd land for Happ. No? What's that? Alonso is worth the moon in prospect value... But Happ ain't worth squat? Why do you think that is? While I think Happ has value, I don't think it's anywhere near Alonso at the moment. Alonso is an elite bat, the type that teams crave and you cannot easily replace. Happ has a great bat, but you can generally find a somewhat suitable veteran free agent replacement for comparable (or less) money, and without prospects or the multiyear commitment.
Additionally, you're looking at buyers vs sellers. Teams will inquire on Alonso, the Mets can play offers off teams and up the price tag. Should the Cubs acquire him and then have to move Happ, they're at a disadvantage as they'd be seeking a buyer and that usually ends up in getting less than market value. If teams are pounding down the Cubs door to get Happ that's one thing, but I've not heard they're doing that at the moment.
Happ's NTC will seriously hinder any trade discussions with other teams so I don't see that happening.
|
|
|
Post by kfidd on Oct 5, 2023 10:19:24 GMT -5
We do see that play out often. I also don’t put any stock into the Alonso wants to be a Cub talk. If he believes that let him say it directly, not hear it from Bruce Levine of all people. I think the Mets will listen on offers but won’t move him unless it benefits their rebuild. Mervis and Killian doesn’t benefit their rebuild. They’ll float it out there Alonso and money can be had for a premium prospect cost just as they did with Scherzer and Verlander. After another early disappointing exit for the Brewers I could see them eventually taking the bait. But they won’t move him just for the sake of moving him. I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them eventually extend him this winter. How don't Mervis and Kilian benefit their rebuild ? They say they are focusing more on 2025 and beyond than 2024. Both are near major league ready and in their system would be ranked a lot higher than they are in the Cubs and the Mets lack near ready pitching prospects. Now that he's hired Boras , as much as people love to say his clients won't sign extensions and will go to free agency , I think Alonso now probably stays and ends up signing an extension. Stearns might not want to rattle his new fan base, Alonso is popular and trading him won't be and the Mets have quite a few Boras clients so they have a solid past of working with him. Should have chosen my words more carefully. Of course they can help their rebuild. But compared to simply keeping Alonso? Not even close, imo. I’m as annoyed as anyone about how Mervis was underutilized this season, but I don’t think that he alone has much trade value around the league. Killian even less so. We can look at these two guys and see how they’d fit into a weaker farm system like the Mets have, but that doesn’t equate to enough compensation for losing Alonso. The Mervis and Killian for Alonso is a pipe dream that only makes sense with our blue rose colored glasses on. For any team that wants to acquire Alonso it’s going to cost someone they don’t want to lose.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2023 13:08:06 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by TheChico on Oct 5, 2023 13:50:37 GMT -5
Killian is just not worth that much, at best he can make a career as a backend starter type due to not being able to get enough swing and misses which gives him zero room for error if his command is a little off.
explains why he has had zero success in the majors so far.
|
|
|
Post by holycow23 on Oct 5, 2023 14:04:29 GMT -5
And New York would definitely be the wrong market for Kilian to be in. With how good he was doing when the cubs traded for him and to where he is now there has to be something going on in between the ears with him. I would like to see him involved in a trade with a small market team. I think he would still hold a little value there.
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Oct 5, 2023 14:16:05 GMT -5
How don't Mervis and Kilian benefit their rebuild ? They say they are focusing more on 2025 and beyond than 2024. Both are near major league ready and in their system would be ranked a lot higher than they are in the Cubs and the Mets lack near ready pitching prospects. Now that he's hired Boras , as much as people love to say his clients won't sign extensions and will go to free agency , I think Alonso now probably stays and ends up signing an extension. Stearns might not want to rattle his new fan base, Alonso is popular and trading him won't be and the Mets have quite a few Boras clients so they have a solid past of working with him. Should have chosen my words more carefully. Of course they can help their rebuild. But compared to simply keeping Alonso? Not even close, imo. I’m as annoyed as anyone about how Mervis was underutilized this season, but I don’t think that he alone has much trade value around the league. Killian even less so. We can look at these two guys and see how they’d fit into a weaker farm system like the Mets have, but that doesn’t equate to enough compensation for losing Alonso. The Mervis and Killian for Alonso is a pipe dream that only makes sense with our blue rose colored glasses on. For any team that wants to acquire Alonso it’s going to cost someone they don’t want to lose. I mention Mervis and Kilian because the Mets would need a potential future 1B unless they envision that to be Vientos which is possible and Kilian because they are very thin on near ready starting pitching. I'm sure minimum they'd shoot for Brown instead and I'm sure they'd start out asking for Horton or Wicks but I think the Cubs could entice them into Kilian if they also include some lower level prospects one who could be a lottery ticket type. If the Mets don't want Alonso long term or if they do and feel they can't come to common ground on a contract he only has value to them for 2024 then , so it could come down to get what you can it's better than a draft pick compensation when he walks type thing. I think with the change in the front office and with the agent change he's probably going to end up staying with the Mets though , so all this is probably for nothing.
|
|