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Post by Deleted on Aug 11, 2023 3:14:40 GMT -5
It's time to discuss Steele's chances to win the NL Cy Young. His performance against the best offensive roster in all MLB (despite his struggle) convinced me he deserves top tier status. Here is an article with stats and a couple of tweets: blogs.fangraphs.com/the-cy-young-races-are-up-in-the-air/Let’s talk about the NL first. Zac Gallen has won all three MLB.com polls for NL Cy Young, but he’s never been close to a unanimous selection. In the latest one, released July 20, he was one of six pitchers to receive a first-place vote. What’s more, he went through a rough patch from June 27 to August 1, posting a 4.67 ERA and 4.55 FIP in seven starts. His ERA rose from 2.84 to 3.41, and his FIP from 2.58 to 3.19. He certainly didn’t destroy his Cy Young case, but he gave other contenders a chance to catch up. Here’s what the race looks like now:  Wheeler holds the lead in WAR here at FanGraphs. Unfortunately, his 3.71 ERA is a major roadblock in his quest for the Cy. In the last ten years, no NL pitcher with an ERA that high has gotten so much as a single vote. Since 2013, three AL pitchers have earned down-ballot votes with an ERA approaching 4.00, but only one — Collin McHugh, who received all of five points in 2015 — earned votes with a higher ERA and a lower ERA+ than Wheeler. It doesn’t help Wheeler’s case that he only recently got his ERA under 4.00. He’s been an ace, but after three straight seasons with an ERA under 3.00, his performance this year has flown under the radar. Snell is the mirror image of Wheeler. He has a sparkling ERA, and the incredible run he’s been on lately has drummed up plenty of media attention, but his underlying numbers aren’t nearly as impressive. He ranks eighth in WAR and 20th in K/BB rate, with an xERA in the 60th percentile. Strider, Webb, and Steele all fall somewhere in between, with lower ERAs than Wheeler and better underlying numbers than Snell. Strider leads the league in FIP and xFIP, thanks in large part to his ridiculous 14.44 K/9. Webb has thrown nearly 20 more innings than Strider with a lower ERA, and he still ranks among the top five in FIP, xFIP, xERA, and SIERA. Steele is the only qualified starter besides Snell with an ERA under 3.00, and the advanced metrics like him significantly more. He ranks top five in xERA and FIP, and his HR/9 is the second best in the league. |
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Post by batman66 on Aug 11, 2023 7:57:34 GMT -5
I like his chances , like I've been saying since last winter when people on here said the Cubs need to obtain an ace .......we got one already !
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Post by Mike on Aug 12, 2023 13:46:08 GMT -5
This is the most innings he's ever pitched and hopefully we get in the postseason, so I just hope he stays healthy and effective.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 9:04:52 GMT -5
I know nobody looks at won / loss records anymore including myself because I just now realized this but Steele is tied for the league lead with 13 wins and is 13-3
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Post by kfidd on Aug 18, 2023 9:50:33 GMT -5
Something that might come into play is innings pitched. I’m just guessing here, didn’t look the following up but I’d imagine it’s true, for a starting pitcher to win the Cy Young you need to eat innings. Steele is surprisingly not even top 25 in the NL in innings pitched right now and we are regularly hearing plans to limit him the rest of the way, even skipping starts if able to.
The numbers could be all rock solid but he might barely scratch 160 innings on the season while several other NL starters are on target for 190+. That alone makes me think he’s not the likely winner, but he’ll now have the experience and buildup to perhaps make a stronger run next season.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 18, 2023 10:09:13 GMT -5
Something that might come into play is innings pitched. I’m just guessing here, didn’t look the following up but I’d imagine it’s true, for a starting pitcher to win the Cy Young you need to eat innings. Steele is surprisingly not even top 25 in the NL in innings pitched right now and we are regularly hearing plans to limit him the rest of the way, even skipping starts if able to. The numbers could be all rock solid but he might barely scratch 160 innings on the season while several other NL starters are on target for 190+. That alone makes me think he’s not the likely winner, but he’ll now have the experience and buildup to perhaps make a stronger run next season. Snell seems to be the strongest competition right now and he only has 10 more innings than Steele Kelly has 2 fewer , Gallen and Webb have 36, 37 more but also have ERA's around that same gap higher so I think they'll look at ERA's more than innings and Steele comes out ahead over Kelly and Gallen there. What actually might hold Justin down more is the K's Snell 176 Steele 120 Kelly 131 Gallen 157 |
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Post by bryzzobrist on Aug 19, 2023 1:40:21 GMT -5
Something that might come into play is innings pitched. I’m just guessing here, didn’t look the following up but I’d imagine it’s true, for a starting pitcher to win the Cy Young you need to eat innings. Steele is surprisingly not even top 25 in the NL in innings pitched right now and we are regularly hearing plans to limit him the rest of the way, even skipping starts if able to. The numbers could be all rock solid but he might barely scratch 160 innings on the season while several other NL starters are on target for 190+. That alone makes me think he’s not the likely winner, but he’ll now have the experience and buildup to perhaps make a stronger run next season. Snell seems to be the strongest competition right now and he only has 10 more innings than Steele Kelly has 2 fewer , Gallen and Webb have 36, 37 more but also have ERA's around that same gap higher so I think they'll look at ERA's more than innings and Steele comes out ahead over Kelly and Gallen there. What actually might hold Justin down more is the K's Snell 176 Steele 120 Kelly 131 Gallen 157 I think a one Kyle Hendricks might have a nice cy young trophy at the house if IP, K's and throwing no hitters didnt factor so highly. Kylo had ~192ip and a 2.1 era. Sherzer had 228 ip and a 2.9, but also a sexy k rate that helped land him the award iirc |
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Post by chubbycub on Aug 19, 2023 8:40:32 GMT -5
He who collects the most colored boxes wins. Ks break the tie. Or maybe WHIP.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2023 4:00:08 GMT -5
Another strong outing where Steele labored & persevered. Now 15-3 with an ERA of 2.69. His advanced stats of a 3.19 FIP & 3.62 xFIP are very good with all factors considered. I think longterm he will finish top 3-5 which will certainly help him in his 1st Arb year.  |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Aug 30, 2023 4:02:19 GMT -5
He who collects the most colored boxes wins. Ks break the tie. Or maybe WHIP. The Cubs are 8 games over .500, while Steele alone is 12 games over .500. Where a team ends up, in the standings, at the end of the year should have some bearing on who wins. |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2023 4:10:47 GMT -5
He who collects the most colored boxes wins. Ks break the tie. Or maybe WHIP. The Cubs are 8 games over .500, while Steele alone is 12 games over .500. Where a team ends up, in the standings, at the end of the year should have some bearing on who wins. Would you try a team friendly extension this offseason? He has 2 seasons of Ace caliber pitching now although last year he had little to show for it. Something like 5/80M? 2024 - 7M 2025 - 15M 2026 - 18M 2027 - 20M 2028 - 20M |
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Post by fine09 on Aug 30, 2023 6:44:13 GMT -5
The Cubs are 8 games over .500, while Steele alone is 12 games over .500. Where a team ends up, in the standings, at the end of the year should have some bearing on who wins. Would you try a team friendly extension this offseason? He has 2 seasons of Ace caliber pitching now although last year he had little to show for it. Something like 5/80M? 2024 - 7M 2025 - 15M 2026 - 18M 2027 - 20M 2028 - 20M He might but buying out only 1 year of Free agency might be risky for the Cubs if he were to get seriously injured. If he keeps this level up he very well could make more over that time but that's no sure bet. If they were to offer him 6-100 with a team option or two at 25 mil they might both go for it. |
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Post by batman66 on Aug 30, 2023 7:57:11 GMT -5
The Cubs are 8 games over .500, while Steele alone is 12 games over .500. Where a team ends up, in the standings, at the end of the year should have some bearing on who wins. Would you try a team friendly extension this offseason? He has 2 seasons of Ace caliber pitching now although last year he had little to show for it. Something like 5/80M? 2024 - 7M 2025 - 15M 2026 - 18M 2027 - 20M 2028 - 20M He can't be a free agent until 2028 , so I'd probably wait a season or three . I'm not a fan of giving ANY pitcher more than 5 years , and they still have him for four more as it is |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2023 8:25:17 GMT -5
One can dream, 2025 rotation:
1. Yamamoto
2. Steele
3. Horton
4. Wicks
5. Taillon
😝😝😝
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Post by batman66 on Aug 30, 2023 8:45:27 GMT -5
One can dream, 2025 rotation: 1. Yamamoto 2. Steele 3. Horton 4. Wicks 5. Taillon 😝😝😝 Well since we are dreaming , my dream includes them finding a taker in trade for Taillon and replace him with Ben Brown with Ferris knocking on the door. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Aug 30, 2023 12:55:57 GMT -5
One can dream, 2025 rotation: 1. Yamamoto 2. Steele 3. Horton 4. Wicks 5. Taillon 😝😝😝 I think Assad is making his case to be a starter. |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 30, 2023 13:06:08 GMT -5
For me, no on an extension for Steele right now. I'm against extensions for pitchers early in their arb years. Extension in early arb years should be for position players IMO Pitchers are just so erratic from year to year, while position players ultimately are pretty consistent.
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Post by slidehard on Sept 1, 2023 0:00:17 GMT -5
How Steele ISN’T the National League Cy Young frontrunner? Is it really just because of strikeouts?
Inquiring minds want to know…
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Post by batman66 on Sept 1, 2023 7:53:41 GMT -5
How Steele ISN’T the National League Cy Young frontrunner? Is it really just because of strikeouts? Inquiring minds want to know… Steele SHOULD be , but Snell is the bigger name since he's a past winner , has a slightly lower ERA 2.60 to Steele's 2.69 and he has around 50 more strike outs , but he also has about 50 more walks. Lets check some boxes old school won /loss record Steele wins that one 15-3 , to Snells 11-9 to me ,even though this is rarely looked at anymore and can be influenced by the teams record Steele has the typical big win / small loss totals that would help win guys the award in the past. There is a HUGE differnece here between 15-3 and 11-9 , that's a 12 game over to a 2 game over difference ERA Snell barely 2.60 to 2.69 WHIP Steele in a close one 1.17 to Snells 1.26 K's Snell by a wide margin 193 to Steele's 141 Walks Steele fewest by a wide margin 31 to Snell's 85 Batting avg against Snell 1.91 to Steele's 2.50 K/BB ratio Steele 4.55 to Snell's 2.27 I think Steele SHOULD be the front runner, but I won't really be surprised to see Snell get it because the writers have always seemed to like the guy and he's the bigger name for now |
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Post by trav768 on Sept 4, 2023 17:39:11 GMT -5
posted this in game thread, but it really belongs here in this thread as well.
Justin Steele owns a 2.25 ERA in 16 starts at Wrigley Field this season. His 12 wins at home are the most home wins in the majors.
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