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Post by fine09 on May 28, 2021 11:01:26 GMT -5
I would too but the truth is KB will not be signing even a "good" extension offer because he wants to try to get a giant contract & I can't really blame him. He's earned that right. HE has earned it, but the Cubs are a major market team and can afford to pay him the market value whatever that might be in free agency. I have a feeling that KB would like a deal better than market value & I don't know that the Cubs would be smart to offer than with all of the uncertainties with his injury history moving forward. I can see an 8 year offer like Arenado but if he's only productive 5 out of the 8 years then that's a serious over-pay.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 11:17:28 GMT -5
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade. Cubs are not going to bring all 3 core players back, at least one will be in a different uniform in 2022, that is just business. So lets say you decide to bring back two of these guys, you need to decide which two are the lowest risk long term and have higher odds producing towards the end of their long term contracts. 1. Bryant - 29 years old, he can play 5 different positions, Excellent eye at the plate which will age well and improve, Great power but willing to sacrifice some to come a full complete hitter instead, excellent baserunner, on base machine. In General he has a skill set that should still make him a productive overall player even when he is 36 years old towards the end of his contract. You cannot replace his production if he walks and will be extremely difficult to ever find a good enough replacement, it will take a ton of luck. Rizzo - 31 years old, he is the he heart and soul on the team, pretty much the face of the franchise, he is a elite defender that makes all the other infielders on the team look so much better to the point when he is not playing I always find myself at least once or twice per a game going "If Rizzo was playing he makes the play or catches that throw", Excellent strike zone judgement, a rare power hitter who does not really strike out a lot and walks just as much he strikes out. His Skillset is one that will age well and should still be a productive hitter if healthy into his mid to later 30's. Baez- 28 years old. Great defender, huge power and runs the bases very well and love his aggressiveness. He is a very exciting player to watch play the game. The concern with him is long term not what he is doing right now and his game is mainly dependent his his elite athletism and usually that is the first thing to go when you get older and if he starts losing a step on the base paths, defense and bat speed his contract might become dead weight fast since he is such an aggressive player and actually what makes him special but usually does not age well either and he comes with much more risk long term. I love Javy, but if I had a choice to to only sign two I would take KB and Rizzo, I think both are the safer long term investments. Losing Javy would suck and short term would be hard to replace but I just think is a to high of risk to sign to a long term deal compared to the other two. No to mention you have two elite short stop prospects and 5 solid ones after that.
KB should be the biggest target, for all the reasons you said. He is worth the long term contract between 30-35 million.
Rizzo should be number two because he isn't going to break the bank, I've pegged him at 17.5 million. Frankly, he is going to get the 4/70 that the Cubs offered with incentives to make more. The "What he has done" argument is not going to play because the Cubs, IMO, are not going to trade him, they are going to saddle him with a QO and his suitors will be limited already.
I'm not going to complain if the Cubs fall off and sell at the deadline but with the current state of affairs, I don't think a "rebuild" is in order.
If I'm Jed, I have to believe to that if have a solid, budding All-Star in Nico Hoerner who is an elite defender at second base. I believe Happ is building block and Alzolay is a formidable rotation piece. I see a lot of guys that have a ton of potential, Thompson I fully believe can be like Samardjiza and convert to a starting pitcher. I see Maples, Steele and Nance plus I have Marquez, Jensen and Carraway in the near future. I have a lot of plus arms in the farm that can project to be at least bullpen pieces... McAvene hitting upper 90's, Riley Thompson looks like he could be a bullpen weapon as well.
I think, if I have a line up with Hoerner, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Happ as my first five, I'm looking pretty good... I can Semien on a shorter term deal while Howard, Hernandez and the others develop... maybe I move Nico over to short if Strumpf moves up. I'm stuck with Heyward but I have an option to seek line up improvements either at third, LF or CF thanks to Bryant and Happ being versatile. I get another year to develop Amaya and Davis..
I don't see a rebuild in the future IF I can keep Bryant and Rizzo intact. I see, like this year, a line up that needs some minor, not super expensive tweaking and I see a rotation that needs a lot of tweaking. Maybe Jon Gray is an option via free agency. Hendricks, Gray, Alzolay, Thompson?
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Post by TheChico on May 28, 2021 11:22:40 GMT -5
HE has earned it, but the Cubs are a major market team and can afford to pay him the market value whatever that might be in free agency. I have a feeling that KB would like a deal better than market value & I don't know that the Cubs would be smart to offer than with all of the uncertainties with his injury history moving forward. I can see an 8 year offer like Arenado but if he's only productive 5 out of the 8 years then that's a serious over-pay. I am not worried about Bryant's injury history as other are, most of the injuries has been the contact ones like bad slide, HBP and other, not the muscle strain ones. I think last year was the first time Bryant missed time due to some type of muscle strain. he had a case a bad luck and is due for a healthy run. Also if the if the Cubs get 5 strong years of Bryant and the other 3 are the declining years I would say it will still be a good deal as even the the declining year he should still take his walks, and likely will adjust well losing bat speed and etc.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 11:32:17 GMT -5
You're very negative and jaded.
You have to realize that even though the "core" would be in place with Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (throw in Happ), it would be a very different line up with Hoerner, Turner and Pederson and a very different situation coming off the bench in Duff (presumably) or maybe he plays third, Sogard and Marsinick who are all good at making contacting and putting the ball in play.
You also gloss over the fact that we would have Turner for a couple more seasons, despite how fun it is to watch Baez play, I'll take Turner over Baez even with his injury concerns.
But you are right, even if we are in first place at the break, we should just roll over and die
I'm not even the slightest bit negative, just 100% a realist & by doing anything but getting the best return for the future is a terrible risk with the team we currently have. I would love to be wrong here but I've watched these guys forever & the BP arms just cannot all continue to be better than career norms. To keep expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Ah the ever famous "realist" title coming back all the way from 2014! How very retro of you!
A.) it's NOT the same line up... as I already mentioned.
B.) career norms? For Steele, Thompson and Nance? Chafin is pitching close to his career norm, Kimbrel is one of the dominate relievers in the game... those career norms? Go look at their career norms... seriously.. look at Winkler, Tepera, look at who Brothers was in Colorado... bare in mind we still haven't Rowan Wick.. Sure, are they going to keep throwing zero after zero after zero... of course not but they are not far off from averages and no reason to believe that the wheels are going to fall off or that they won't be dominate.
You've watched a line up full of all or nothing, swing and miss guys up and down throughout the line up. You haven't seen the line up with solid contact hitters like Hoerner and Duffy. You haven't seen an up the middle defense as solid as we have since 2016. You haven't seen Pederson (career .274/.349/.503 in the post season). When is the last time you saw Bryant at 100%? 2017?
You've seen "these guys forever"... 39 year old Zobrist leading off with no speed? Schwarber? You have not watched these guys forever. The line up dynamic is completely different. A lot of that dynamic might change with Hoerner, Duffy and Rizzo being out for who knows how long but if all those guys are healthy in the post season, that is a solid, dynamic line up that is not an all or nothing offense.
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Post by fine09 on May 28, 2021 13:21:09 GMT -5
I'm not even the slightest bit negative, just 100% a realist & by doing anything but getting the best return for the future is a terrible risk with the team we currently have. I would love to be wrong here but I've watched these guys forever & the BP arms just cannot all continue to be better than career norms. To keep expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity. Ah the ever famous "realist" title coming back all the way from 2014! How very retro of you!
A.) it's NOT the same line up... as I already mentioned.
B.) career norms? For Steele, Thompson and Nance? Chafin is pitching close to his career norm, Kimbrel is one of the dominate relievers in the game... those career norms? Go look at their career norms... seriously.. look at Winkler, Tepera, look at who Brothers was in Colorado... bare in mind we still haven't Rowan Wick.. Sure, are they going to keep throwing zero after zero after zero... of course not but they are not far off from averages and no reason to believe that the wheels are going to fall off or that they won't be dominate.
You've watched a line up full of all or nothing, swing and miss guys up and down throughout the line up. You haven't seen the line up with solid contact hitters like Hoerner and Duffy. You haven't seen an up the middle defense as solid as we have since 2016. You haven't seen Pederson (career .274/.349/.503 in the post season). When is the last time you saw Bryant at 100%? 2017?
You've seen "these guys forever"... 39 year old Zobrist leading off with no speed? Schwarber? You have not watched these guys forever. The line up dynamic is completely different. A lot of that dynamic might change with Hoerner, Duffy and Rizzo being out for who knows how long but if all those guys are healthy in the post season, that is a solid, dynamic line up that is not an all or nothing offense.
The hitters are pretty close to the same line up with the exception of Pederson (also an "all or nothing" type of hitter) & Duffy who I am very impressed with. The issue/concern I have is even Duffy is sitting at 20% higher OBP that his career whic the laws of averages lean towards him settling back to his career averages As far as career norms I was referring to the guys that have career norms like Chafin who currently has the lowest WHIP and ERA of his life & not by just a little bit. Same as Duffy, he will "most likely" revert to his old numbers as 95% do. Craig Kimbrel - I completely agree he is wonderful & not far off career norms so very well could stay there - his Cub past still concerns me some when he couldn't hit his butt with both hands but that might have been because of the layoff. Dan Winkler - Has the best ERA of his life by about 5 times so not just a little AND has a 0.9 WAR for us this year but a 1.7 career WAR so we can probably agree that he is pitching better than anyone would have predicted. Ryan Tepera - Best WHIP of his life & best ERA of his life and by more than a run less than before so same as Winkler above. Rex Brothers - even he is having his best year since 2015.. WHEW.. That sure is a lot of guys with the best numbers of their lives huh.. My point still being that we will lose all these guys but Kimbrel if we keep them & every contender needs BP help now so why not pair up a few of these guys with Rizzo, Kimbrel, KB, & get back a treasure load of prospects & young controlled youngsters with serious upside? Yes, we give up on winning the division this year early & the very likely 1st series loss but we set the future up starting next year as a good chance for success. No guarantee of course, but if we lose everyone in the BP mentioned above along with KB, Rizzo & Baez for a total return of 2 sandwich picks we are pretty much guaranteed to have zero success for many years & I really want to avoid that.
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 14:50:17 GMT -5
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade. I'm not trying to be a jerk here but I feel like I need to break things down Barney style:
What is the very first thing you lose as you age? Quick Twitch
Baez is so dynamic because he is extremely twitchy and it blankets a lot of his many flaws....
When that quick twitch starts breaking down... Baez isn't going to be able to use that long swing to catch up with balls out of the zone, and he has no concept of the strike zone. He has shown complete unwillingness to command the zone or take walks.
Baez has a near 50% chase rate... amazingly though, he has about a 50% contact rate out of the zone (which also accounts for his weak exit velocity). By comparison, KB has only a 27% chase rate and makes contact on about 55% of his swings out of the zone
Other absolutely disturbing information.. Baez is only hitting .190 against the fastball and even worse against off speed pitches. He has been murdering mistake breaking pitches but we are in a league of 60% fastball usage. Long story short, this year, Baez cannot catch up to the fastball and is being fooled by change ups because he has to cheat.
Baez, when he got second in MVP voting had a 78% contact rate on pitching in the zone... it's steadily decreased each year and now sits at 68%
Defensively, Baez is fun to watch, makes some amazing plays but again, once his quick twitch starts deteriorating, a lot of that sizzle will be gone. Watch him this year, he makes a lot of mistakes he overcomes due to his athleticism.
You talk about him being able to force mistakes on the base paths, again, which is true because a lot has to do with his quick twitch.
There are a lot of concerns regarding Baez, actual information but when you look at it with fan glasses, you miss it. Baez's speed is down a foot per second this year, he is unable to catch up to the fastball... it suggest that he is already on his downward slide. Of course, Baez has been struggling with a tight back... is that the cause of his slide? Or is it going to be an issue like Rizzo's back is an issue? Rizzo's back is less of an issue because he isn't playing short stop, he takes walks and doesn't unload on every swing.
Another concern, fact, is that you cannot give 25-30 million to a guy you cannot build a line up around. Do you want another Jason Heyward situation? You cannot build a line up around Javy, he doesn't walk. Rizzo, Bryant, you can build line ups around them because when they are cold at the plate, they will still take their walks. When Baez is cold, and when he is cold he is ice cold, he doesn't do anything for the line up. Javy, as much as I like him, is a 6-7 hole hitter, 5 depending on the line up. He is the guy you want up AFTER the heart of the line up comes up and after guys get on base.
I get what you are saying about Javy. But the thing is , he seems to be the guy they've put the most effort in trying to retain. And he also seemed the most open to getting a deal done and he knows the free agent shortstop market is pretty deep with some guys looking to have better shots at mega deals than he does , so he might be the easiest for them to sign. I know that isn't reason enough to do it, they have to think about the things you say , but it seems they do want him.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 14:55:07 GMT -5
Ah the ever famous "realist" title coming back all the way from 2014! How very retro of you!
A.) it's NOT the same line up... as I already mentioned.
B.) career norms? For Steele, Thompson and Nance? Chafin is pitching close to his career norm, Kimbrel is one of the dominate relievers in the game... those career norms? Go look at their career norms... seriously.. look at Winkler, Tepera, look at who Brothers was in Colorado... bare in mind we still haven't Rowan Wick.. Sure, are they going to keep throwing zero after zero after zero... of course not but they are not far off from averages and no reason to believe that the wheels are going to fall off or that they won't be dominate.
You've watched a line up full of all or nothing, swing and miss guys up and down throughout the line up. You haven't seen the line up with solid contact hitters like Hoerner and Duffy. You haven't seen an up the middle defense as solid as we have since 2016. You haven't seen Pederson (career .274/.349/.503 in the post season). When is the last time you saw Bryant at 100%? 2017?
You've seen "these guys forever"... 39 year old Zobrist leading off with no speed? Schwarber? You have not watched these guys forever. The line up dynamic is completely different. A lot of that dynamic might change with Hoerner, Duffy and Rizzo being out for who knows how long but if all those guys are healthy in the post season, that is a solid, dynamic line up that is not an all or nothing offense.
The hitters are pretty close to the same line up with the exception of Pederson (also an "all or nothing" type of hitter) & Duffy who I am very impressed with. The issue/concern I have is even Duffy is sitting at 20% higher OBP that his career whic the laws of averages lean towards him settling back to his career averages As far as career norms I was referring to the guys that have career norms like Chafin who currently has the lowest WHIP and ERA of his life & not by just a little bit. Same as Duffy, he will "most likely" revert to his old numbers as 95% do. Craig Kimbrel - I completely agree he is wonderful & not far off career norms so very well could stay there - his Cub past still concerns me some when he couldn't hit his butt with both hands but that might have been because of the layoff. Dan Winkler - Has the best ERA of his life by about 5 times so not just a little AND has a 0.9 WAR for us this year but a 1.7 career WAR so we can probably agree that he is pitching better than anyone would have predicted. Ryan Tepera - Best WHIP of his life & best ERA of his life and by more than a run less than before so same as Winkler above. Rex Brothers - even he is having his best year since 2015.. WHEW.. That sure is a lot of guys with the best numbers of their lives huh.. My point still being that we will lose all these guys but Kimbrel if we keep them & every contender needs BP help now so why not pair up a few of these guys with Rizzo, Kimbrel, KB, & get back a treasure load of prospects & young controlled youngsters with serious upside? Yes, we give up on winning the division this year early & the very likely 1st series loss but we set the future up starting next year as a good chance for success. No guarantee of course, but if we lose everyone in the BP mentioned above along with KB, Rizzo & Baez for a total return of 2 sandwich picks we are pretty much guaranteed to have zero success for many years & I really want to avoid that. Ryan Tepera current ERA 2.66 career era 3.57
Dan Winkler current ERA .54 career era 3.19
Rex Brothers current ERA 3 career era 3.80 (and that includes some of his horrific years)
Whew that is CRAZY that despite Winkler, who still has an impressive career era, everyone else is within one run.
And again, you are confusing with "career number" with "line up dynamic"... if baseball was played on a spread sheet, it wouldn't need to be played. What does Duffy, Hoerner, Sogard and Marsinick constantly do? Put bat on ball and give you "professional" at bats.
Pederson is not an all or nothing hitter, he has a 24% career whiff rate. He also has a much better spray chart than Schwarber and he is a better base runner.
I was talking about it all off season, the Cubs didn't need a dramatic change offensively (and they didn't get it), the needed minor tweaks and a change in line up dynamic. No offense to either player but you leave a lot of runs on the board when you have guys like Schwarber and Zobrist leading off. They could get on base but then you are pretty much playing station to station ball and you are also handcuffing your best base runner when they are on in front of him.
Line up dynamic is about balance and tweaking, not having carbon copies of the same guy out there. Kris Bryant now being able to crush high fastballs is important why? Because Joc Pederson doesn't. So a pitcher cannot get into that comfort zone, he has to work the entire game changing locations.
Lets put this dynamic into perspective shall we... this season, in 49 games, we have 17 sacrifice flies all last season we had 13. Runner on third, we have 28 RBI's this year vs. 17 all last year. 18 runs to 29 runs... do you understand what I'm getting at?
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 15:10:10 GMT -5
Cubs are not going to bring all 3 core players back, at least one will be in a different uniform in 2022, that is just business. So lets say you decide to bring back two of these guys, you need to decide which two are the lowest risk long term and have higher odds producing towards the end of their long term contracts. 1. Bryant - 29 years old, he can play 5 different positions, Excellent eye at the plate which will age well and improve, Great power but willing to sacrifice some to come a full complete hitter instead, excellent baserunner, on base machine. In General he has a skill set that should still make him a productive overall player even when he is 36 years old towards the end of his contract. You cannot replace his production if he walks and will be extremely difficult to ever find a good enough replacement, it will take a ton of luck. Rizzo - 31 years old, he is the he heart and soul on the team, pretty much the face of the franchise, he is a elite defender that makes all the other infielders on the team look so much better to the point when he is not playing I always find myself at least once or twice per a game going "If Rizzo was playing he makes the play or catches that throw", Excellent strike zone judgement, a rare power hitter who does not really strike out a lot and walks just as much he strikes out. His Skillset is one that will age well and should still be a productive hitter if healthy into his mid to later 30's. Baez- 28 years old. Great defender, huge power and runs the bases very well and love his aggressiveness. He is a very exciting player to watch play the game. The concern with him is long term not what he is doing right now and his game is mainly dependent his his elite athletism and usually that is the first thing to go when you get older and if he starts losing a step on the base paths, defense and bat speed his contract might become dead weight fast since he is such an aggressive player and actually what makes him special but usually does not age well either and he comes with much more risk long term. I love Javy, but if I had a choice to to only sign two I would take KB and Rizzo, I think both are the safer long term investments. Losing Javy would suck and short term would be hard to replace but I just think is a to high of risk to sign to a long term deal compared to the other two. No to mention you have two elite short stop prospects and 5 solid ones after that.
KB should be the biggest target, for all the reasons you said. He is worth the long term contract between 30-35 million.
Rizzo should be number two because he isn't going to break the bank, I've pegged him at 17.5 million. Frankly, he is going to get the 4/70 that the Cubs offered with incentives to make more. The "What he has done" argument is not going to play because the Cubs, IMO, are not going to trade him, they are going to saddle him with a QO and his suitors will be limited already.
I'm not going to complain if the Cubs fall off and sell at the deadline but with the current state of affairs, I don't think a "rebuild" is in order.
If I'm Jed, I have to believe to that if have a solid, budding All-Star in Nico Hoerner who is an elite defender at second base. I believe Happ is building block and Alzolay is a formidable rotation piece. I see a lot of guys that have a ton of potential, Thompson I fully believe can be like Samardjiza and convert to a starting pitcher. I see Maples, Steele and Nance plus I have Marquez, Jensen and Carraway in the near future. I have a lot of plus arms in the farm that can project to be at least bullpen pieces... McAvene hitting upper 90's, Riley Thompson looks like he could be a bullpen weapon as well.
I think, if I have a line up with Hoerner, Bryant, Rizzo, Contreras, Happ as my first five, I'm looking pretty good... I can Semien on a shorter term deal while Howard, Hernandez and the others develop... maybe I move Nico over to short if Strumpf moves up. I'm stuck with Heyward but I have an option to seek line up improvements either at third, LF or CF thanks to Bryant and Happ being versatile. I get another year to develop Amaya and Davis..
I don't see a rebuild in the future IF I can keep Bryant and Rizzo intact. I see, like this year, a line up that needs some minor, not super expensive tweaking and I see a rotation that needs a lot of tweaking. Maybe Jon Gray is an option via free agency. Hendricks, Gray, Alzolay, Thompson?
I agree with just about all you said there. While I love Javy and I'd be very happy if they do sign him . He's the one that makes the most sense to let go. There is no way a rebuild is needed , even if they lose all three. Free agent market is pretty deep and they would have a shit ton of money off the books. They can move forward with retaining two of the three and just patchwork in players like they did this off season as the minor league talents start to flow into the roster.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 16:27:20 GMT -5
I'm not trying to be a jerk here but I feel like I need to break things down Barney style:
What is the very first thing you lose as you age? Quick Twitch
Baez is so dynamic because he is extremely twitchy and it blankets a lot of his many flaws....
When that quick twitch starts breaking down... Baez isn't going to be able to use that long swing to catch up with balls out of the zone, and he has no concept of the strike zone. He has shown complete unwillingness to command the zone or take walks.
Baez has a near 50% chase rate... amazingly though, he has about a 50% contact rate out of the zone (which also accounts for his weak exit velocity). By comparison, KB has only a 27% chase rate and makes contact on about 55% of his swings out of the zone
Other absolutely disturbing information.. Baez is only hitting .190 against the fastball and even worse against off speed pitches. He has been murdering mistake breaking pitches but we are in a league of 60% fastball usage. Long story short, this year, Baez cannot catch up to the fastball and is being fooled by change ups because he has to cheat.
Baez, when he got second in MVP voting had a 78% contact rate on pitching in the zone... it's steadily decreased each year and now sits at 68%
Defensively, Baez is fun to watch, makes some amazing plays but again, once his quick twitch starts deteriorating, a lot of that sizzle will be gone. Watch him this year, he makes a lot of mistakes he overcomes due to his athleticism.
You talk about him being able to force mistakes on the base paths, again, which is true because a lot has to do with his quick twitch.
There are a lot of concerns regarding Baez, actual information but when you look at it with fan glasses, you miss it. Baez's speed is down a foot per second this year, he is unable to catch up to the fastball... it suggest that he is already on his downward slide. Of course, Baez has been struggling with a tight back... is that the cause of his slide? Or is it going to be an issue like Rizzo's back is an issue? Rizzo's back is less of an issue because he isn't playing short stop, he takes walks and doesn't unload on every swing.
Another concern, fact, is that you cannot give 25-30 million to a guy you cannot build a line up around. Do you want another Jason Heyward situation? You cannot build a line up around Javy, he doesn't walk. Rizzo, Bryant, you can build line ups around them because when they are cold at the plate, they will still take their walks. When Baez is cold, and when he is cold he is ice cold, he doesn't do anything for the line up. Javy, as much as I like him, is a 6-7 hole hitter, 5 depending on the line up. He is the guy you want up AFTER the heart of the line up comes up and after guys get on base.
I get what you are saying about Javy. But the thing is , he seems to be the guy they've put the most effort in trying to retain. And he also seemed the most open to getting a deal done and he knows the free agent shortstop market is pretty deep with some guys looking to have better shots at mega deals than he does , so he might be the easiest for them to sign. I know that isn't reason enough to do it, they have to think about the things you say , but it seems they do want him. I think the easiest player to get a deal with is going to be Rizzo if they really want him. He isn't going to get a massive contract in terms of dollars or years and the QO is going to hurt him more than he realizes.
Baez, I don't see the Cubs overly pursuing him any longer. In the past, it certainly did look that way (although I had the same concerns then as I do now) but it has seemed to die down. I wonder if Epstein wasn't more of the driving force behind a potential Baez extension more than anything. I also think they thought they could get him for Xander Bogarts money (which was a 6 years and 120 million and put him in free agency at age 34.. which would actually have been perfect for the Cubs in terms of extending Baez.
The concern with Baez isn't next year or the year after that (or the year after that). It's age 34/35/36 and so on. Those are the years the athleticism really starts to fade away and "oh shit what did we do" factor comes into reality.
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 18:59:27 GMT -5
I get what you are saying about Javy. But the thing is , he seems to be the guy they've put the most effort in trying to retain. And he also seemed the most open to getting a deal done and he knows the free agent shortstop market is pretty deep with some guys looking to have better shots at mega deals than he does , so he might be the easiest for them to sign. I know that isn't reason enough to do it, they have to think about the things you say , but it seems they do want him. I think the easiest player to get a deal with is going to be Rizzo if they really want him. He isn't going to get a massive contract in terms of dollars or years and the QO is going to hurt him more than he realizes.
Baez, I don't see the Cubs overly pursuing him any longer. In the past, it certainly did look that way (although I had the same concerns then as I do now) but it has seemed to die down. I wonder if Epstein wasn't more of the driving force behind a potential Baez extension more than anything. I also think they thought they could get him for Xander Bogarts money (which was a 6 years and 120 million and put him in free agency at age 34.. which would actually have been perfect for the Cubs in terms of extending Baez.
The concern with Baez isn't next year or the year after that (or the year after that). It's age 34/35/36 and so on. Those are the years the athleticism really starts to fade away and "oh shit what did we do" factor comes into reality.
I thought Rizzo would be the easiest because he's probably the shortest term and least money and we know Jed loves him. But I think he really felt dissed over that offer and I'm not so sure anymore about him being the easy sign. Regarding Javy's later years , thats the concern with pretty much any long term deal though , does anybody really expect much more than half the years to be worth it? And with Javy , if he loses a step , move him to 3b and you have a GG caliber 3b because he's always going to have the arm.
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Post by TheChico on May 28, 2021 19:20:07 GMT -5
I think the easiest player to get a deal with is going to be Rizzo if they really want him. He isn't going to get a massive contract in terms of dollars or years and the QO is going to hurt him more than he realizes.
Baez, I don't see the Cubs overly pursuing him any longer. In the past, it certainly did look that way (although I had the same concerns then as I do now) but it has seemed to die down. I wonder if Epstein wasn't more of the driving force behind a potential Baez extension more than anything. I also think they thought they could get him for Xander Bogarts money (which was a 6 years and 120 million and put him in free agency at age 34.. which would actually have been perfect for the Cubs in terms of extending Baez.
The concern with Baez isn't next year or the year after that (or the year after that). It's age 34/35/36 and so on. Those are the years the athleticism really starts to fade away and "oh shit what did we do" factor comes into reality.
I thought Rizzo would be the easiest because he's probably the shortest term and least money and we know Jed loves him. But I think he really felt dissed over that offer and I'm not so sure anymore about him being the easy sign. Regarding Javy's later years , thats the concern with pretty much any long term deal though , does anybody really expect much more than half the years to be worth it? And with Javy , if he loses a step , move him to 3b and you have a GG caliber 3b because he's always going to have the arm. Rizzo and FO will let the market figure it out and a deal will get done in the offseason, franchise type players have hit free agency in the past because they could not find the middle ground and decide to let the market figure it out. There have been some 1B that have been overpaid like Goldy and Davis which inflated the market a bit and likely why both side cannot find common ground. Just business and I think Rizzo understands that.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 19:34:56 GMT -5
I think the easiest player to get a deal with is going to be Rizzo if they really want him. He isn't going to get a massive contract in terms of dollars or years and the QO is going to hurt him more than he realizes.
Baez, I don't see the Cubs overly pursuing him any longer. In the past, it certainly did look that way (although I had the same concerns then as I do now) but it has seemed to die down. I wonder if Epstein wasn't more of the driving force behind a potential Baez extension more than anything. I also think they thought they could get him for Xander Bogarts money (which was a 6 years and 120 million and put him in free agency at age 34.. which would actually have been perfect for the Cubs in terms of extending Baez.
The concern with Baez isn't next year or the year after that (or the year after that). It's age 34/35/36 and so on. Those are the years the athleticism really starts to fade away and "oh shit what did we do" factor comes into reality.
I thought Rizzo would be the easiest because he's probably the shortest term and least money and we know Jed loves him. But I think he really felt dissed over that offer and I'm not so sure anymore about him being the easy sign. Regarding Javy's later years , thats the concern with pretty much any long term deal though , does anybody really expect much more than half the years to be worth it? And with Javy , if he loses a step , move him to 3b and you have a GG caliber 3b because he's always going to have the arm. As I've alluded to... do you want another Jason Heyward situation?
I've already went into depth about Baez in previous posts and do not really want to rehash those stats but Baez already isn't catching up to fastballs. When he loses a step, his defense isn't going to be the biggest issue, it's his offense. He already cannot get on base because he cannot take a walk. What happens when he cannot leg out infield singles? or beat out double play balls? What happens when Baez even further cannot catch up to the fastball and loses just a hair of athleticism and cannot make contact with the 50% chase rate he has?
Another thing we have alluded to time and time again, is control of the strike zone never really deteriorates. When you look at "worse case scenarios" on long term contracts you have guys like Joey Votto, who are still getting on base 35% of the time because he takes walks. Doesn't have the power, doesn't hit for the average but he isn't a total sunk cost.
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 19:58:58 GMT -5
I thought Rizzo would be the easiest because he's probably the shortest term and least money and we know Jed loves him. But I think he really felt dissed over that offer and I'm not so sure anymore about him being the easy sign. Regarding Javy's later years , thats the concern with pretty much any long term deal though , does anybody really expect much more than half the years to be worth it? And with Javy , if he loses a step , move him to 3b and you have a GG caliber 3b because he's always going to have the arm. As I've alluded to... do you want another Jason Heyward situation?
I've already went into depth about Baez in previous posts and do not really want to rehash those stats but Baez already isn't catching up to fastballs. When he loses a step, his defense isn't going to be the biggest issue, it's his offense. He already cannot get on base because he cannot take a walk. What happens when he cannot leg out infield singles? or beat out double play balls? What happens when Baez even further cannot catch up to the fastball and loses just a hair of athleticism and cannot make contact with the 50% chase rate he has?
Another thing we have alluded to time and time again, is control of the strike zone never really deteriorates. When you look at "worse case scenarios" on long term contracts you have guys like Joey Votto, who are still getting on base 35% of the time because he takes walks. Doesn't have the power, doesn't hit for the average but he isn't a total sunk cost.
I really don't mind that he doesn't take walks when he's getting 75 extra base hits and driving in 85-100 runs. Interesting you mention Votto. GREAT hitter , but I've always felt and so have a lot of Reds fans that he's too in love with taking walks. I'd rather a great hitter like that swing the damn bat more and casuse more damage by putting the ball in play more . The guys played 15 years and has only driven in 100 runs 3 times. I'm not saying getting on base is a bad thing, but when your the best hitter on the team and one of the best in the league I'd rather see you swinging more than walking and depending on others to drive in runs.
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Post by Mike on May 28, 2021 21:02:58 GMT -5
He's a great hitter because he understands the strike zone and pitchers have to paint (and usually lose) because of the hard contact threat right down the zone. That also speaks to starters opting to deal with the rest of the lineup with Votto on 1B instead of nibbling and losing.
I don't know the data offhand, but I'm sure he's not swinging at pitches Javy swings at and gets lucky on.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 21:07:04 GMT -5
As I've alluded to... do you want another Jason Heyward situation?
I've already went into depth about Baez in previous posts and do not really want to rehash those stats but Baez already isn't catching up to fastballs. When he loses a step, his defense isn't going to be the biggest issue, it's his offense. He already cannot get on base because he cannot take a walk. What happens when he cannot leg out infield singles? or beat out double play balls? What happens when Baez even further cannot catch up to the fastball and loses just a hair of athleticism and cannot make contact with the 50% chase rate he has?
Another thing we have alluded to time and time again, is control of the strike zone never really deteriorates. When you look at "worse case scenarios" on long term contracts you have guys like Joey Votto, who are still getting on base 35% of the time because he takes walks. Doesn't have the power, doesn't hit for the average but he isn't a total sunk cost.
I really don't mind that he doesn't take walks when he's getting 75 extra base hits and driving in 85-100 runs. Interesting you mention Votto. GREAT hitter , but I've always felt and so have a lot of Reds fans that he's too in love with taking walks. I'd rather a great hitter like that swing the damn bat more and casuse more damage by putting the ball in play more . The guys played 15 years and has only driven in 100 runs 3 times. I'm not saying getting on base is a bad thing, but when your the best hitter on the team and one of the best in the league I'd rather see you swinging more than walking and depending on others to drive in runs. I hate to say it but that is the wrong mindset. The point is, when the bat goes, you will still help the offense by getting on base. Baez has an unsustainable near 50% contact rate with balls his swings at out of the zone and he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone. Let that sink in now, he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone...
Baez is hitting under .200 against the fastball AND under .200 against the change up. The only pitch he is hitting is the mistake slider. I promise you, who ever signs Baez in the off season is going to have some serious buyers remorse... but hey, he is exciting.
As far as fans saying Votto walks too much, that only started in 2018 when pitchers refused to pitch to him because the Reds were so bad. Here is a number that is outstanding 313... that is how many times Votto was on base in 2017... 313.
Last season, Votto sold out for more power, hit 11 home runs in 54 games... not too shabby. He only hit .226 but still managed a .354 on base. 79 times Votto was on base in 54 games and he is regressing horribly. That is the point I'm trying to make, when Baez regresses he will be a .200 hitter if he is lucky with a .210 on base and maybe a dozen home runs... hurting his teams offense.
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Post by batman66 on May 29, 2021 9:32:36 GMT -5
I really don't mind that he doesn't take walks when he's getting 75 extra base hits and driving in 85-100 runs. Interesting you mention Votto. GREAT hitter , but I've always felt and so have a lot of Reds fans that he's too in love with taking walks. I'd rather a great hitter like that swing the damn bat more and casuse more damage by putting the ball in play more . The guys played 15 years and has only driven in 100 runs 3 times. I'm not saying getting on base is a bad thing, but when your the best hitter on the team and one of the best in the league I'd rather see you swinging more than walking and depending on others to drive in runs. I hate to say it but that is the wrong mindset. The point is, when the bat goes, you will still help the offense by getting on base. Baez has an unsustainable near 50% contact rate with balls his swings at out of the zone and he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone. Let that sink in now, he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone...
Baez is hitting under .200 against the fastball AND under .200 against the change up. The only pitch he is hitting is the mistake slider. I promise you, who ever signs Baez in the off season is going to have some serious buyers remorse... but hey, he is exciting.
As far as fans saying Votto walks too much, that only started in 2018 when pitchers refused to pitch to him because the Reds were so bad. Here is a number that is outstanding 313... that is how many times Votto was on base in 2017... 313.
Last season, Votto sold out for more power, hit 11 home runs in 54 games... not too shabby. He only hit .226 but still managed a .354 on base. 79 times Votto was on base in 54 games and he is regressing horribly. That is the point I'm trying to make, when Baez regresses he will be a .200 hitter if he is lucky with a .210 on base and maybe a dozen home runs... hurting his teams offense.
I'm just not convinced Javy is going to be as horrible as you make him out to be in his later years. He's been a somewhat similar hitter to Soriano and Alfonso was still a 25-35 homer 80-100 rbi guy in his mid to late 30's
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Post by batman66 on May 29, 2021 9:39:59 GMT -5
He's a great hitter because he understands the strike zone and pitchers have to paint (and usually lose) because of the hard contact threat right down the zone. That also speaks to starters opting to deal with the rest of the lineup with Votto on 1B instead of nibbling and losing. I don't know the data offhand, but I'm sure he's not swinging at pitches Javy swings at and gets lucky on. I understand why he is a great hitter. And although getting on base like he does is not a bad thing I'd rather have Joey Votto in my line up hitting one over the wall or into the gap than walking to 1b. I'm not knocking Votto , the guy to me is an easy HOFer career .303 avg .418 OBP and he's gotten MVP votes in over half the seasons he's played. Just saying there are times when he seems like he fell in love with taking a walk and it would not be in an ignite an inning to get things going way , it was with runners on when he was THE guy on the team who could cause the most damage.
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Post by happtobehere on May 29, 2021 10:25:25 GMT -5
I hate to say it but that is the wrong mindset. The point is, when the bat goes, you will still help the offense by getting on base. Baez has an unsustainable near 50% contact rate with balls his swings at out of the zone and he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone. Let that sink in now, he swings at 50% of the balls he sees out of the zone...
Baez is hitting under .200 against the fastball AND under .200 against the change up. The only pitch he is hitting is the mistake slider. I promise you, who ever signs Baez in the off season is going to have some serious buyers remorse... but hey, he is exciting.
As far as fans saying Votto walks too much, that only started in 2018 when pitchers refused to pitch to him because the Reds were so bad. Here is a number that is outstanding 313... that is how many times Votto was on base in 2017... 313.
Last season, Votto sold out for more power, hit 11 home runs in 54 games... not too shabby. He only hit .226 but still managed a .354 on base. 79 times Votto was on base in 54 games and he is regressing horribly. That is the point I'm trying to make, when Baez regresses he will be a .200 hitter if he is lucky with a .210 on base and maybe a dozen home runs... hurting his teams offense.
I'm just not convinced Javy is going to be as horrible as you make him out to be in his later years. He's been a somewhat similar hitter to Soriano and Alfonso was still a 25-35 homer 80-100 rbi guy in his mid to late 30's Yes and no... Unfortunately, we do not have access to all the advanced stats for Soriano as we do with Javy (such as chase rate which is what I'd really be interested in).
It's a different game now but Soriano had over 170 hits per season before screwing up his quad and only struck out 23% of the time. The biggest difference however is his swing. Go back and look at how much shorter and less violent Soriano's swing was vs. Baez's swing.
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Post by fine09 on May 29, 2021 13:29:12 GMT -5
The hitters are pretty close to the same line up with the exception of Pederson (also an "all or nothing" type of hitter) & Duffy who I am very impressed with. The issue/concern I have is even Duffy is sitting at 20% higher OBP that his career whic the laws of averages lean towards him settling back to his career averages As far as career norms I was referring to the guys that have career norms like Chafin who currently has the lowest WHIP and ERA of his life & not by just a little bit. Same as Duffy, he will "most likely" revert to his old numbers as 95% do. Craig Kimbrel - I completely agree he is wonderful & not far off career norms so very well could stay there - his Cub past still concerns me some when he couldn't hit his butt with both hands but that might have been because of the layoff. Dan Winkler - Has the best ERA of his life by about 5 times so not just a little AND has a 0.9 WAR for us this year but a 1.7 career WAR so we can probably agree that he is pitching better than anyone would have predicted. Ryan Tepera - Best WHIP of his life & best ERA of his life and by more than a run less than before so same as Winkler above. Rex Brothers - even he is having his best year since 2015.. WHEW.. That sure is a lot of guys with the best numbers of their lives huh.. My point still being that we will lose all these guys but Kimbrel if we keep them & every contender needs BP help now so why not pair up a few of these guys with Rizzo, Kimbrel, KB, & get back a treasure load of prospects & young controlled youngsters with serious upside? Yes, we give up on winning the division this year early & the very likely 1st series loss but we set the future up starting next year as a good chance for success. No guarantee of course, but if we lose everyone in the BP mentioned above along with KB, Rizzo & Baez for a total return of 2 sandwich picks we are pretty much guaranteed to have zero success for many years & I really want to avoid that. Ryan Tepera current ERA 2.66 career era 3.57
Dan Winkler current ERA .54 career era 3.19
Rex Brothers current ERA 3 career era 3.80 (and that includes some of his horrific years)
Whew that is CRAZY that despite Winkler, who still has an impressive career era, everyone else is within one run.
And again, you are confusing with "career number" with "line up dynamic"... if baseball was played on a spread sheet, it wouldn't need to be played. What does Duffy, Hoerner, Sogard and Marsinick constantly do? Put bat on ball and give you "professional" at bats.
Pederson is not an all or nothing hitter, he has a 24% career whiff rate. He also has a much better spray chart than Schwarber and he is a better base runner.
I was talking about it all off season, the Cubs didn't need a dramatic change offensively (and they didn't get it), the needed minor tweaks and a change in line up dynamic. No offense to either player but you leave a lot of runs on the board when you have guys like Schwarber and Zobrist leading off. They could get on base but then you are pretty much playing station to station ball and you are also handcuffing your best base runner when they are on in front of him.
Line up dynamic is about balance and tweaking, not having carbon copies of the same guy out there. Kris Bryant now being able to crush high fastballs is important why? Because Joc Pederson doesn't. So a pitcher cannot get into that comfort zone, he has to work the entire game changing locations.
Lets put this dynamic into perspective shall we... this season, in 49 games, we have 17 sacrifice flies all last season we had 13. Runner on third, we have 28 RBI's this year vs. 17 all last year. 18 runs to 29 runs... do you understand what I'm getting at?
For relievers a full run higher ERA is a ton & probably the difference between being in 1st place instead of 4th.. My final point, did you see that Cub relievers just completed their 38th scoreless inning, the 6th longest streak in the past 50 years? You get my point, they are tremendously valuable right now but this won’t be the case for much longer. I love that the Cubs are playing well but please consider who they have been beating & then plug in the top 4 teams in the National league at years end. I’d just rather better our team substantially instead of the same old one & hone & field an also ran team next year with no chance at the playoffs
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Post by happtobehere on May 29, 2021 13:42:04 GMT -5
Ryan Tepera current ERA 2.66 career era 3.57
Dan Winkler current ERA .54 career era 3.19
Rex Brothers current ERA 3 career era 3.80 (and that includes some of his horrific years)
Whew that is CRAZY that despite Winkler, who still has an impressive career era, everyone else is within one run.
And again, you are confusing with "career number" with "line up dynamic"... if baseball was played on a spread sheet, it wouldn't need to be played. What does Duffy, Hoerner, Sogard and Marsinick constantly do? Put bat on ball and give you "professional" at bats.
Pederson is not an all or nothing hitter, he has a 24% career whiff rate. He also has a much better spray chart than Schwarber and he is a better base runner.
I was talking about it all off season, the Cubs didn't need a dramatic change offensively (and they didn't get it), the needed minor tweaks and a change in line up dynamic. No offense to either player but you leave a lot of runs on the board when you have guys like Schwarber and Zobrist leading off. They could get on base but then you are pretty much playing station to station ball and you are also handcuffing your best base runner when they are on in front of him.
Line up dynamic is about balance and tweaking, not having carbon copies of the same guy out there. Kris Bryant now being able to crush high fastballs is important why? Because Joc Pederson doesn't. So a pitcher cannot get into that comfort zone, he has to work the entire game changing locations.
Lets put this dynamic into perspective shall we... this season, in 49 games, we have 17 sacrifice flies all last season we had 13. Runner on third, we have 28 RBI's this year vs. 17 all last year. 18 runs to 29 runs... do you understand what I'm getting at?
For relievers a full run higher ERA is a ton & probably the difference between being in 1st place instead of 4th.. My final point, did you see that Cub relievers just completed their 38th scoreless inning, the 6th longest streak in the past 50 years? You get my point, they are tremendously valuable right now but this won’t be the case for much longer. I love that the Cubs are playing well but please consider who they have been beating & then plug in the top 4 teams in the National league at years end. I’d just rather better our team substantially instead of the same old one & hone & field an also ran team next year with no chance at the playoffs Ok "realist"... the sky is falling... Cubs suck! Time for a complete rebuild! You've convinced me.
Dodgers (sweep)
Cardinals (2-3)
Mets (sweep)
Man if only they could beat the good teams, we'd be all set.
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