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Post by batman66 on May 27, 2021 19:38:06 GMT -5
The option on Kimbrel is a vesting option , not a club option or player option and me and others have already discussed the details and parameters of that and it might be difficulr for him to make it to the point it vests. I feel the same way , they will sign 2 of the 3 and they will also have plenty of money left for other signing like a Castellanos signing if he opts out and no rebuild is needed just the gradual influx of home grown talents like Davis, Amaya etc and an occasional trade or FA signings along the way. It's a vesting/CLUB option. If the option vests, the Cubs will have no choice but to pay him 16 million next season. If it does not vest, the Cubs can pay a 1 million dollar buy out or pick up his option.
If the Cubs choose to pick up two players, they would be best served re-signing Bryant and Rizzo. Then target Semien in free agent as a bridge player for their abundance of SS prospects.
Semien is having a fantastic year (again) with Toronto but still will cost less in dollars and years than Baez while providing roughly similar value.
I did not pick up on them being able to pick up the option with the club option , I thought it was just based on the vesting part of the games finished so even better for trade value purposes that a team can decide if they want him around for 2022 if it doesn't vest.
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Post by happtobehere on May 27, 2021 19:38:10 GMT -5
That will be the same thinking of GMs who would be on the other end of a trade. They will be looking at the long-term implications also. If traded, Baez, Rizzo and Bryant are not eligible for qualifying offers. What will the Cubs expect in return for players who will be free agents? From the Cubs perspective, if they keep all 3, they can give them all qualifying offers which could net them 3 high draft picks if they decline the offers. A good start to building up the farm system. If one or all accepts, it gives both sides time to work out extensions or possibly trades. The Cubs would free up over $47 million to spend on free agents. If the Cubs lose all 3 at the end of the year they get a mid 40's pick for KB, a late 70's pick for the next guy & then somewhere in the low 100's for the third. It is very unlikely that any of those guys slot in to the top 20 in the minors system. That doesn't do much to bolster the farm in my opinion. With all do respect to your opinion, have you ever heard of: Will Smith Dakota Hudson Dylan Carlson Taylor Trammell Jordan Sheffield KeBryan Hayes Austin Riley Jeter Downs Shane McClanahan Xavier Edwards
All guys drafted between the first and second round of the MLB draft. So there is some serious talent in compensation picks, your drafting department just needs to be on their game.
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Post by happtobehere on May 27, 2021 19:45:25 GMT -5
How is this for "reality"... at game 47... the Nationals were 9 games UNDER .500. They didn't crack .500 until June 27th.
The Nationals had Trea Turner, Rendon and Soto... but also had Brian Dozier, Matt Adams, Yan Gomes... That isn't any better offensively than what the Cubs are putting on the table. You say the Nationals had a starting rotation that was a full run better... our bullpen is a full two runs better.
You are correct about our BP being better - but how much difference does that make if you are down 3 or 4 runs when you make your first call to the pen? I'm not saying it isn't impossible that the Cubs are capable of making a deep playoff run, I'm just saying that the odds are not at all good that it takes place so I'm in favor of a re-tool that doesn't cost us any "give away years" like a rebuild does. As I said in a previous post, as the rotation stands now, the Cubs probably are not poised for a deep post season run.
However, if we were in first place, I'm calling the Nationals and trying to trade for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer and I'm willing to give up Marquez as a center piece to get them. All the sudden you feel good about your rotation with Scherzer and Hendricks going 1/2. Alzolay giving you 5 innings and turning it over to the pen... really Davies as well.
If you have a combination of Trea Turner, Bryant, Rizzo at the top and Nico at the bottom with the option to use guys like Duffy, Sogard, Marsinick as pinch hitters you feel really good about scratching across a run or two, especially with Turner at the top swiping bags.
To take some of the bite out of the trade, deal Baez closer to the deadline and then deal Contreras at the end of the season.
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Post by fine09 on May 27, 2021 21:13:35 GMT -5
If the Cubs lose all 3 at the end of the year they get a mid 40's pick for KB, a late 70's pick for the next guy & then somewhere in the low 100's for the third. It is very unlikely that any of those guys slot in to the top 20 in the minors system. That doesn't do much to bolster the farm in my opinion. With all do respect to your opinion, have you ever heard of: Will Smith Dakota Hudson Dylan Carlson Taylor Trammell Jordan Sheffield KeBryan Hayes Austin Riley Jeter Downs Shane McClanahan Xavier Edwards
All guys drafted between the first and second round of the MLB draft. So there is some serious talent in compensation picks, your drafting department just needs to be on their game.
I have heard of those 10 guys but let’s agree that although those 10 guys picked out of the first round did wonderfully, that is not typically the case. In fact I would estimate that for every guy that turns out great there are 20 that aren’t & that is a 5% success rate so that’s not something to pin your hopes on as a good plan..
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Post by fine09 on May 27, 2021 21:19:02 GMT -5
You are correct about our BP being better - but how much difference does that make if you are down 3 or 4 runs when you make your first call to the pen? I'm not saying it isn't impossible that the Cubs are capable of making a deep playoff run, I'm just saying that the odds are not at all good that it takes place so I'm in favor of a re-tool that doesn't cost us any "give away years" like a rebuild does. As I said in a previous post, as the rotation stands now, the Cubs probably are not poised for a deep post season run.
However, if we were in first place, I'm calling the Nationals and trying to trade for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer and I'm willing to give up Marquez as a center piece to get them. All the sudden you feel good about your rotation with Scherzer and Hendricks going 1/2. Alzolay giving you 5 innings and turning it over to the pen... really Davies as well.
If you have a combination of Trea Turner, Bryant, Rizzo at the top and Nico at the bottom with the option to use guys like Duffy, Sogard, Marsinick as pinch hitters you feel really good about scratching across a run or two, especially with Turner at the top swiping bags.
To take some of the bite out of the trade, deal Baez closer to the deadline and then deal Contreras at the end of the season.
Wow. That would be a bold & risky move betting your best prospect & probably 2 more in the top 6 to have a “chance” at making a post season run. I’d be horribly concerned that our bats would do as it has the past 4 years & just go away. That’s what I call a very poor risk/reward situation.
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Post by happtobehere on May 27, 2021 23:48:12 GMT -5
As I said in a previous post, as the rotation stands now, the Cubs probably are not poised for a deep post season run.
However, if we were in first place, I'm calling the Nationals and trying to trade for Trea Turner and Max Scherzer and I'm willing to give up Marquez as a center piece to get them. All the sudden you feel good about your rotation with Scherzer and Hendricks going 1/2. Alzolay giving you 5 innings and turning it over to the pen... really Davies as well.
If you have a combination of Trea Turner, Bryant, Rizzo at the top and Nico at the bottom with the option to use guys like Duffy, Sogard, Marsinick as pinch hitters you feel really good about scratching across a run or two, especially with Turner at the top swiping bags.
To take some of the bite out of the trade, deal Baez closer to the deadline and then deal Contreras at the end of the season.
Wow. That would be a bold & risky move betting your best prospect & probably 2 more in the top 6 to have a “chance” at making a post season run. I’d be horribly concerned that our bats would do as it has the past 4 years & just go away. That’s what I call a very poor risk/reward situation. You're very negative and jaded.
You have to realize that even though the "core" would be in place with Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (throw in Happ), it would be a very different line up with Hoerner, Turner and Pederson and a very different situation coming off the bench in Duff (presumably) or maybe he plays third, Sogard and Marsinick who are all good at making contacting and putting the ball in play.
You also gloss over the fact that we would have Turner for a couple more seasons, despite how fun it is to watch Baez play, I'll take Turner over Baez even with his injury concerns.
But you are right, even if we are in first place at the break, we should just roll over and die
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Post by Mike on May 28, 2021 2:36:47 GMT -5
You can't deal Baez for prospects, just to create a hole for a "better" player at that same position, unless it's a 3-way trade.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 7:36:00 GMT -5
You can't deal Baez for prospects, just to create a hole for a "better" player at that same position, unless it's a 3-way trade. I didn't see it in the rule book.... please enlighten me.
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 7:46:33 GMT -5
You can't deal Baez for prospects, just to create a hole for a "better" player at that same position, unless it's a 3-way trade. Huh ? You can deal him for prospects because him leaving via free agency is going to create a hole anyway and there is a shit ton of shortstops going to be available to fill that hole. Teams might be shuffling around and trading what they have with sights on landing one of the free agents. Regarding Turner , he probably signs and extension with the Nats , he'sll get one of those huge deferred deals they love to hand out where they pay him until he's like 56 years old.
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Post by woodysfilthy on May 28, 2021 8:16:59 GMT -5
You can't deal Baez for prospects, just to create a hole for a "better" player at that same position, unless it's a 3-way trade. Huh ? You can deal him for prospects because him leaving via free agency is going to create a hole anyway and there is a shit ton of shortstops going to be available to fill that hole. Teams might be shuffling around and trading what they have with sights on landing one of the free agents. Regarding Turner , he probably signs and extension with the Nats , he'sll get one of those huge deferred deals they love to hand out where they pay him until he's like 56 years old. The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 8:30:29 GMT -5
Huh ? You can deal him for prospects because him leaving via free agency is going to create a hole anyway and there is a shit ton of shortstops going to be available to fill that hole. Teams might be shuffling around and trading what they have with sights on landing one of the free agents. Regarding Turner , he probably signs and extension with the Nats , he'sll get one of those huge deferred deals they love to hand out where they pay him until he's like 56 years old. The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively. No ones value is goes beyond numbers...
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 8:38:29 GMT -5
Huh ? You can deal him for prospects because him leaving via free agency is going to create a hole anyway and there is a shit ton of shortstops going to be available to fill that hole. Teams might be shuffling around and trading what they have with sights on landing one of the free agents. Regarding Turner , he probably signs and extension with the Nats , he'sll get one of those huge deferred deals they love to hand out where they pay him until he's like 56 years old. The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively. No offense but this is the problem with "fans"... they are not logical.
Fans look at the play yesterday, all the flash, the big home runs and scream "javy javy javy!" but cannot see the forest through the trees.
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Post by woodysfilthy on May 28, 2021 9:32:25 GMT -5
The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively. No ones value is goes beyond numbers... Javy's does.
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Post by woodysfilthy on May 28, 2021 9:35:13 GMT -5
The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively. No offense but this is the problem with "fans"... they are not logical.
Fans look at the play yesterday, all the flash, the big home runs and scream "javy javy javy!" but cannot see the forest through the trees.
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade.
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Post by batman66 on May 28, 2021 9:38:41 GMT -5
Huh ? You can deal him for prospects because him leaving via free agency is going to create a hole anyway and there is a shit ton of shortstops going to be available to fill that hole. Teams might be shuffling around and trading what they have with sights on landing one of the free agents. Regarding Turner , he probably signs and extension with the Nats , he'sll get one of those huge deferred deals they love to hand out where they pay him until he's like 56 years old. The focus should be on figuring out how to resign this guy not trade him, his value goes way beyond the numbers. Nobody in baseball can do what he does on the field offensively or defensively. I agree, but if they feel they can't make it happen it would be a shame to get just a sandwich round pick when he departs. I'm 100% in favor of keeping any or all of the big 3
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Post by TheChico on May 28, 2021 10:34:28 GMT -5
No offense but this is the problem with "fans"... they are not logical.
Fans look at the play yesterday, all the flash, the big home runs and scream "javy javy javy!" but cannot see the forest through the trees.
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade. Cubs are not going to bring all 3 core players back, at least one will be in a different uniform in 2022, that is just business. So lets say you decide to bring back two of these guys, you need to decide which two are the lowest risk long term and have higher odds producing towards the end of their long term contracts. 1. Bryant - 29 years old, he can play 5 different positions, Excellent eye at the plate which will age well and improve, Great power but willing to sacrifice some to come a full complete hitter instead, excellent baserunner, on base machine. In General he has a skill set that should still make him a productive overall player even when he is 36 years old towards the end of his contract. You cannot replace his production if he walks and will be extremely difficult to ever find a good enough replacement, it will take a ton of luck. Rizzo - 31 years old, he is the he heart and soul on the team, pretty much the face of the franchise, he is a elite defender that makes all the other infielders on the team look so much better to the point when he is not playing I always find myself at least once or twice per a game going "If Rizzo was playing he makes the play or catches that throw", Excellent strike zone judgement, a rare power hitter who does not really strike out a lot and walks just as much he strikes out. His Skillset is one that will age well and should still be a productive hitter if healthy into his mid to later 30's. Baez- 28 years old. Great defender, huge power and runs the bases very well and love his aggressiveness. He is a very exciting player to watch play the game. The concern with him is long term not what he is doing right now and his game is mainly dependent his his elite athletism and usually that is the first thing to go when you get older and if he starts losing a step on the base paths, defense and bat speed his contract might become dead weight fast since he is such an aggressive player and actually what makes him special but usually does not age well either and he comes with much more risk long term. I love Javy, but if I had a choice to to only sign two I would take KB and Rizzo, I think both are the safer long term investments. Losing Javy would suck and short term would be hard to replace but I just think is a to high of risk to sign to a long term deal compared to the other two.
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Post by fine09 on May 28, 2021 10:40:33 GMT -5
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade. Cubs are not going to bring all 3 core players back, at least one will be in a different uniform in 2022, that is just business. So lets say you decide to bring back two of these guys, you need to decide which two are the lowest risk long term and have higher odds producing towards the end of their long term contracts. 1. Bryant - 29 years old, he can play 5 different positions, Excellent eye at the plate which will age well and improve, Great power but willing to sacrifice some to come a full complete hitter instead, excellent baserunner, on base machine. In General he has a skill set that should still make him a productive overall player even when he is 36 years old towards the end of his contract. You cannot replace his production if he walks and will be extremely difficult to ever find a good enough replacement, it will take a ton of luck. Rizzo - 31 years old, he is the he heart and soul on the team, pretty much the face of the franchise, he is a elite defender that makes all the other infielders on the team look so much better to the point when he is not playing I always find myself at least once or twice per a game going "If Rizzo was playing he makes the play or catches that throw", Excellent strike zone judgement, a rare power hitter who does not really strike out a lot and walks just as much he strikes out. His Skillset is one that will age well and should still be a productive hitter if healthy into his mid to later 30's. Baez- 28 years old. Great defender, huge power and runs the bases very well and love his aggressiveness. He is a very exciting player to watch play the game. The concern with him is long term not what he is doing right now and his game is mainly dependent his his elite athletism and usually that is the first thing to go when you get older and if he starts losing a step on the base paths, defense and bat speed his contract might become dead weight fast since he is such an aggressive player and actually what makes him special but usually does not age well either and he comes with much more risk long term that his contract could become dead money. I love Javy, but if I had a choice to to only sign two I would take KB and Rizzo, I think both are the safer long term investments. Replacing Javy will be hard short term though. I would too but the truth is KB will not be signing even a "good" extension offer because he wants to try to get a giant contract & I can't really blame him. He's earned that right.
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Post by fine09 on May 28, 2021 10:43:29 GMT -5
Wow. That would be a bold & risky move betting your best prospect & probably 2 more in the top 6 to have a “chance” at making a post season run. I’d be horribly concerned that our bats would do as it has the past 4 years & just go away. That’s what I call a very poor risk/reward situation. You're very negative and jaded.
You have to realize that even though the "core" would be in place with Bryant, Rizzo and Contreras (throw in Happ), it would be a very different line up with Hoerner, Turner and Pederson and a very different situation coming off the bench in Duff (presumably) or maybe he plays third, Sogard and Marsinick who are all good at making contacting and putting the ball in play.
You also gloss over the fact that we would have Turner for a couple more seasons, despite how fun it is to watch Baez play, I'll take Turner over Baez even with his injury concerns.
But you are right, even if we are in first place at the break, we should just roll over and die
I'm not even the slightest bit negative, just 100% a realist & by doing anything but getting the best return for the future is a terrible risk with the team we currently have. I would love to be wrong here but I've watched these guys forever & the BP arms just cannot all continue to be better than career norms. To keep expecting a different outcome is the definition of insanity.
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Post by happtobehere on May 28, 2021 10:45:34 GMT -5
No offense but this is the problem with "fans"... they are not logical.
Fans look at the play yesterday, all the flash, the big home runs and scream "javy javy javy!" but cannot see the forest through the trees.
It's not just that play. His intangibles are off the charts. He forces more mistakes on the bases then anyone in the game, it's not luck or coincidence, it happens too frequently, his defense is ridiculous and he'll probably produce 30-40 hr's and 100 RBI and he's young. He's a guy we should be looking to resign, not trade. I'm not trying to be a jerk here but I feel like I need to break things down Barney style:
What is the very first thing you lose as you age? Quick Twitch
Baez is so dynamic because he is extremely twitchy and it blankets a lot of his many flaws....
When that quick twitch starts breaking down... Baez isn't going to be able to use that long swing to catch up with balls out of the zone, and he has no concept of the strike zone. He has shown complete unwillingness to command the zone or take walks.
Baez has a near 50% chase rate... amazingly though, he has about a 50% contact rate out of the zone (which also accounts for his weak exit velocity). By comparison, KB has only a 27% chase rate and makes contact on about 55% of his swings out of the zone
Other absolutely disturbing information.. Baez is only hitting .190 against the fastball and even worse against off speed pitches. He has been murdering mistake breaking pitches but we are in a league of 60% fastball usage. Long story short, this year, Baez cannot catch up to the fastball and is being fooled by change ups because he has to cheat.
Baez, when he got second in MVP voting had a 78% contact rate on pitching in the zone... it's steadily decreased each year and now sits at 68%
Defensively, Baez is fun to watch, makes some amazing plays but again, once his quick twitch starts deteriorating, a lot of that sizzle will be gone. Watch him this year, he makes a lot of mistakes he overcomes due to his athleticism.
You talk about him being able to force mistakes on the base paths, again, which is true because a lot has to do with his quick twitch.
There are a lot of concerns regarding Baez, actual information but when you look at it with fan glasses, you miss it. Baez's speed is down a foot per second this year, he is unable to catch up to the fastball... it suggest that he is already on his downward slide. Of course, Baez has been struggling with a tight back... is that the cause of his slide? Or is it going to be an issue like Rizzo's back is an issue? Rizzo's back is less of an issue because he isn't playing short stop, he takes walks and doesn't unload on every swing.
Another concern, fact, is that you cannot give 25-30 million to a guy you cannot build a line up around. Do you want another Jason Heyward situation? You cannot build a line up around Javy, he doesn't walk. Rizzo, Bryant, you can build line ups around them because when they are cold at the plate, they will still take their walks. When Baez is cold, and when he is cold he is ice cold, he doesn't do anything for the line up. Javy, as much as I like him, is a 6-7 hole hitter, 5 depending on the line up. He is the guy you want up AFTER the heart of the line up comes up and after guys get on base.
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Post by TheChico on May 28, 2021 10:57:10 GMT -5
Cubs are not going to bring all 3 core players back, at least one will be in a different uniform in 2022, that is just business. So lets say you decide to bring back two of these guys, you need to decide which two are the lowest risk long term and have higher odds producing towards the end of their long term contracts. 1. Bryant - 29 years old, he can play 5 different positions, Excellent eye at the plate which will age well and improve, Great power but willing to sacrifice some to come a full complete hitter instead, excellent baserunner, on base machine. In General he has a skill set that should still make him a productive overall player even when he is 36 years old towards the end of his contract. You cannot replace his production if he walks and will be extremely difficult to ever find a good enough replacement, it will take a ton of luck. Rizzo - 31 years old, he is the he heart and soul on the team, pretty much the face of the franchise, he is a elite defender that makes all the other infielders on the team look so much better to the point when he is not playing I always find myself at least once or twice per a game going "If Rizzo was playing he makes the play or catches that throw", Excellent strike zone judgement, a rare power hitter who does not really strike out a lot and walks just as much he strikes out. His Skillset is one that will age well and should still be a productive hitter if healthy into his mid to later 30's. Baez- 28 years old. Great defender, huge power and runs the bases very well and love his aggressiveness. He is a very exciting player to watch play the game. The concern with him is long term not what he is doing right now and his game is mainly dependent his his elite athletism and usually that is the first thing to go when you get older and if he starts losing a step on the base paths, defense and bat speed his contract might become dead weight fast since he is such an aggressive player and actually what makes him special but usually does not age well either and he comes with much more risk long term that his contract could become dead money. I love Javy, but if I had a choice to to only sign two I would take KB and Rizzo, I think both are the safer long term investments. Replacing Javy will be hard short term though. I would too but the truth is KB will not be signing even a "good" extension offer because he wants to try to get a giant contract & I can't really blame him. He's earned that right. HE has earned it, but the Cubs are a major market team and can afford to pay him the market value whatever that might be in free agency.
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