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Post by TheChico on Jun 15, 2021 15:15:43 GMT -5
Big pass on both of those guys even if healthy, I am not really a fan of both. To me if available, German Marquez would be my guy but he would cost a ton, but you also have a proven long term rotation piece until 2024 that still has untapped upside. You would have to move a Braylin Marquez to get the Rockies to even pick up the phone would be the issue and nobody really knows Hoyer plan beyond this season. Anyhow, finding a starter is going to tough and I don't want Hoyer job right now, he is really is a very tough spot not only this year but long term. I can't see Jed making a move that costs us any top 10 prospect of ours because he has to know that the odds of us doing anything in the post season are not very good at all. Then again on the flip side, even though we Cub fans of late aren't satisfied with just a division title any longer, 80% of the other teams out there might be & honestly it is nothing to take lightly. Then again, if we did deal some of our "Free agents to be & Kimbrel" we could end up with 3 or 4 more damn near MLB ready guys in the top 100 list with 1 maybe in the top 10 to 20. That along with a couple nice free agent signings could set us up for the future for years to come where we don't have to have this conversation.. I am not on the same page that the Cubs can net those big returns in trades, but you never know but I like the Cubs odds in the postseason more then I like their odds getting a bunch of top 100 prospects at the deadline if they sell. Cubs do have a lot of short comings but a couple additions at the deadline could take this team to the next level and might not even need to give up that much to make it happen, I said a couple times maybe adding a Starling Marte or Asrubal Cabrera type could give the lineup a strong boast around the core hitters and rotation could be addressed with a solid arm like Duffy or Gray and look into another bullpen arm as well, why not make a strong bullpen even stronger? Worked for the Royals and their "Just ok' Rotation back in 2015/2016.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 15, 2021 15:24:47 GMT -5
He has been solid however has been handled with kid gloves, rarely allowed to go deep into games. The Darvish trade also has affected or will affect the pen as he was the one guy (with exception of Hendricks) who would be trusted 3x or more through an order. In this day and age, very few pitchers are allowed to go more than 6 innings. The Dylan Cease trade set the Cubs back as much as anything.
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Post by TheChico on Jun 15, 2021 15:25:16 GMT -5
Big pass on both of those guys even if healthy, I am not really a fan of both. To me if available, German Marquez would be my guy but he would cost a ton, but you also have a proven long term rotation piece until 2024 that still has untapped upside. You would have to move a Braylin Marquez to get the Rockies to even pick up the phone would be the issue and nobody really knows Hoyer plan beyond this season. Anyhow, finding a starter is going to tough and I don't want Hoyer job right now, he is really is a very tough spot not only this year but long term. Finding a starter is easy. Both Steele and Thompson are starters and will be in the rotation next year. When the bullpen is healthy, Brad Weick, Rowan Wick and Ken Ryan can take their places in the bullpen and one or both could move to the rotation in the second half. Trading good talent for a starter when they have young starters ready to go makes no sense. Can you really stretch out Steel and Thompson this year and be effective enough to work ? You are asking a ton from two rookies, only way I can see something like that happening is they just do a Rays type situation and have Thompson or Steele begin the game and the other one follows after 2-3 innings. Both Thompson and Steele have been great this year, but I am just not confident they can step into the rotation and be the big boast it needs this year, long term maybe but not this year also it weakens the strong bullpen as well. Wick is questionable if he will even pitch this year, intercostal issues is ultra tricky and really should not count on him helping, Weick is a sold bullpen harm but a downgrade from Thompson and Steele, and Kyle Ryan was DFA. Cubs are likely need to go outside to get some help this year.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 15, 2021 15:25:25 GMT -5
Big pass on both of those guys even if healthy, I am not really a fan of both. To me if available, German Marquez would be my guy but he would cost a ton, but you also have a proven long term rotation piece until 2024 that still has untapped upside. You would have to move a Braylin Marquez to get the Rockies to even pick up the phone would be the issue and nobody really knows Hoyer plan beyond this season. Anyhow, finding a starter is going to tough and I don't want Hoyer job right now, he is really is a very tough spot not only this year but long term. Finding a starter is easy. Both Steele and Thompson are starters and will be in the rotation next year. When the bullpen is healthy, Brad Weick, Rowan Wick and Ken Ryan can take their places in the bullpen and one or both could move to the rotation in the second half. Trading good talent for a starter when they have young starters ready to go makes no sense. Not really talking about next year , talking about needing an upgrade or two in the rotation for this deadline and Steele and Thompson are not options. They can rely on Hendricks and Davies and Alzolay has been good and showing great promise, but I'm not sure how hard they ride his arm innings wise. Jake has been ok at best , horrible on occasion and Williams the same. Forget about Mills doing anything other than a spot start or two and there probably isn't any more help coming from Iowa in regards to somebody to slide into the rotation.
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Post by cubbies85 on Jun 15, 2021 15:32:01 GMT -5
The Cubs surprise year is making the Darvish trade look worse and worse. Cubs definitely need a reliable TOR if they want to make any actual noise in the POs if they shall make it. Depends on how you look at it. If they don't subtract his salary there is no Davies and probably no Pederson signing and and Arrieta (although that might not be a bad thing) and who knows about the other smaller signings money was spread around in like Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Tepera etc. Davies has been VERY good since May , his ERA in April 5 starts 9.47 May 6 starts 1.72 June 3 starts 2.12 Ill admit I’m not up to date on Cubs financial situation but Cubs are currently 32 million under the luxury tax threshold. Seems they could have easily kept Darvish while making those other additions and still be below the tax which as I previously understood was the goal to get to it to reset. Davies has been very good since May indeed but come home stretch and playoff time I’m much more comfortable with Darvish on the bump than Davies.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 15, 2021 15:41:12 GMT -5
Depends on how you look at it. If they don't subtract his salary there is no Davies and probably no Pederson signing and and Arrieta (although that might not be a bad thing) and who knows about the other smaller signings money was spread around in like Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Tepera etc. Davies has been VERY good since May , his ERA in April 5 starts 9.47 May 6 starts 1.72 June 3 starts 2.12 Ill admit I’m not up to date on Cubs financial situation but Cubs are currently 32 million under the luxury tax threshold. Seems they could have easily kept Darvish while making those other additions and still be below the tax which as I previously understood was the goal to get to it to reset. Davies has been very good since May indeed but come home stretch and playoff time I’m much more comfortable with Darvish on the bump than Davies. Well I think when they subtracted Yu's contract some of that money was looked at as a way to give them wiggle room and be able to extend Rizzo now , and he didn't end up being thrilled with their offer. There was no way they even fit in an offer with his contarct still on the books. When it became clear he wasn't going to be signed
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 15, 2021 23:24:53 GMT -5
Depends on how you look at it. If they don't subtract his salary there is no Davies and probably no Pederson signing and and Arrieta (although that might not be a bad thing) and who knows about the other smaller signings money was spread around in like Marisnick, Trevor Williams, Tepera etc. Davies has been VERY good since May , his ERA in April 5 starts 9.47 May 6 starts 1.72 June 3 starts 2.12 Ill admit I’m not up to date on Cubs financial situation but Cubs are currently 32 million under the luxury tax threshold. Seems they could have easily kept Darvish while making those other additions and still be below the tax which as I previously understood was the goal to get to it to reset. Davies has been very good since May indeed but come home stretch and playoff time I’m much more comfortable with Darvish on the bump than Davies. You really have failed to see the big picture as it related to Darvish and the Cubs financial state. It's kind of been a dead horse topic but I'll hit the broad strokes for you.
The luxury tax threshold is a moot point. The bigger issue in regarding to trade Darvish was that the Cubs lost a ton of revenue due to covid last season AND they had a huge bill due for Wrigley renovations being complete... Given, at the time of the Darvish trade, MLB was not sure if they would have fans at all in 2021 AND they were not sure that they would be able to play 162 games, the Cubs were looking at even more revenue loss. Once Cubs got word that they would allow 30% capacity, they spent on Arrieta, Pederson and Chafin. Those three moves, plus adding Davies salary pretty much offset Darvish's salary (they also attempted to extend Rizzo).
So people can complain about not having Darvish, but they fail to see what the Cubs saw, they want to retain Rizzo (and possibly Baez and Bryant) and they could not do that with Darvish's salary on the books, not only this year but for two more years. Not with the question marks regarding fans capacity in the stadium and the revenue it would draw.
Now that Wrigley is at 100% (for now) the Cubs could probably add more salary to their roster.
On any given (normal) year, the Cubs should operate at + or - 10% as it relates to the luxury tax. The Cubs over the past couple seasons were at + 10% and needed to get -10% for this year regardless to balance the books. I'd be willing to bet dollar to donuts that Hoyer has a -10% cap, meaning that he can spend how he sees fit as long as he is under 10% of the luxury tax. Anything Hoyer wants to spend over that 10% threshold needs ownership approval with a hard cap at +10%. If he is operating at + luxury tax his true dollar amount needs to be significantly lower, i.e. back loaded contracts, to offset the financial penalties for going over. IF he is under the LT threshold his true dollars can be higher (front loaded/signing bonus money).
If you look at what the Cubs did this past off season, they focuses on true money with just a little set aside for buyouts of option years, by contrast the Brewers are robbing Peter to pay Paul in the sense they differed/back loaded a lot of money. I think, given the amount of free agents the Cubs have and the depth of the free agent class, the Cubs were very wise in doing so. It's going to allot Hoyer a lot of true money this off season for signing bonuses and contracts. Hoyer basically was able to reset the books, not only by resetting the luxury tax but also resetting the true spending amount. It SHOULD set him up nicely for 5+ years and allow the Cubs to be active in free agency.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 16, 2021 5:28:04 GMT -5
Finding a starter is easy. Both Steele and Thompson are starters and will be in the rotation next year. When the bullpen is healthy, Brad Weick, Rowan Wick and Ken Ryan can take their places in the bullpen and one or both could move to the rotation in the second half. Trading good talent for a starter when they have young starters ready to go makes no sense. Can you really stretch out Steel and Thompson this year and be effective enough to work ? You are asking a ton from two rookies, only way I can see something like that happening is they just do a Rays type situation and have Thompson or Steele begin the game and the other one follows after 2-3 innings. Both Thompson and Steele have been great this year, but I am just not confident they can step into the rotation and be the big boast it needs this year, long term maybe but not this year also it weakens the strong bullpen as well. Wick is questionable if he will even pitch this year, intercostal issues is ultra tricky and really should not count on him helping, Weick is a sold bullpen harm but a downgrade from Thompson and Steele, and Kyle Ryan was DFA. Cubs are likely need to go outside to get some help this year. Those 2 “might” be able to be stretched out to 6 innings by August & honestly that’s the only real way for the Cubs to get a new starter or two because they won’t deplete the farm betting on all parts of our game to be good for a month in the post season.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 19, 2021 17:36:57 GMT -5
Ill admit I’m not up to date on Cubs financial situation but Cubs are currently 32 million under the luxury tax threshold. Seems they could have easily kept Darvish while making those other additions and still be below the tax which as I previously understood was the goal to get to it to reset. Davies has been very good since May indeed but come home stretch and playoff time I’m much more comfortable with Darvish on the bump than Davies. Well I think when they subtracted Yu's contract some of that money was looked at as a way to give them wiggle room and be able to extend Rizzo now , and he didn't end up being thrilled with their offer. There was no way they even fit in an offer with his contarct still on the books. When it became clear he wasn't going to be signed OK.. I now think it is time for us to, in the memorable words of I believe Mortimer Duke: Get back in there & sell, sell, sell! We are really starting to struggle against even good pitching so great pitching is just going to own this team, even when Nico & Duffy return. Even if they hit quite a bit when sandwiched between 2 K’s & a grounder to short we still don’t win that game. Even if they would be willing to trade for a TOR arm that still won’t get it done this year so I really think we start dealing very soon. KB, Rizzo, Javy, Kimbrel, Joc & Tepera aren’t going to get us to the World Series but a couple of them on another team just might so let’s cash in big time as soon as they each turn back hot.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 20, 2021 5:28:31 GMT -5
Well I think when they subtracted Yu's contract some of that money was looked at as a way to give them wiggle room and be able to extend Rizzo now , and he didn't end up being thrilled with their offer. There was no way they even fit in an offer with his contarct still on the books. When it became clear he wasn't going to be signed OK.. I now think it is time for us to, in the memorable words of I believe Mortimer Duke: Get back in there & sell, sell, sell! We are really starting to struggle against even good pitching so great pitching is just going to own this team, even when Nico & Duffy return. Even if they hit quite a bit when sandwiched between 2 K’s & a grounder to short we still don’t win that game. Even if they would be willing to trade for a TOR arm that still won’t get it done this year so I really think we start dealing very soon. KB, Rizzo, Javy, Kimbrel, Joc & Tepera aren’t going to get us to the World Series but a couple of them on another team just might so let’s cash in big time as soon as they each turn back hot. I hope the Cubs do sell because Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Kimbrel deserve to play in front of a deserving fan base.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 20, 2021 7:00:13 GMT -5
OK.. I now think it is time for us to, in the memorable words of I believe Mortimer Duke: Get back in there & sell, sell, sell! We are really starting to struggle against even good pitching so great pitching is just going to own this team, even when Nico & Duffy return. Even if they hit quite a bit when sandwiched between 2 K’s & a grounder to short we still don’t win that game. Even if they would be willing to trade for a TOR arm that still won’t get it done this year so I really think we start dealing very soon. KB, Rizzo, Javy, Kimbrel, Joc & Tepera aren’t going to get us to the World Series but a couple of them on another team just might so let’s cash in big time as soon as they each turn back hot. I hope the Cubs do sell because Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Kimbrel deserve to play in front of a deserving fan base. I believe they are already but if we don’t get back a return of 15 times what we will if they just play out the season & let them walk that would be a mistake that will cost us/them for a decade. Jed is more than smart enough to know that so I think at a minimum they will do at least some trading..
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 20, 2021 8:54:53 GMT -5
I hope the Cubs do sell because Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Kimbrel deserve to play in front of a deserving fan base. I believe they are already but if we don’t get back a return of 15 times what we will if they just play out the season & let them walk that would be a mistake that will cost us/them for a decade. Jed is more than smart enough to know that so I think at a minimum they will do at least some trading.. What set the Cubs back had nothing to do with this year, it was mismanaging the roster 3 years previously and every subsequent year after that. Putting blind faith into "the core" and showing too much "veteran loyalty".
Nico is due back at the end of the month, Duffy in early July. The line up is significantly better with those two in it vs. what we have had production wise out of second and third (granted, we would not have won some of those games without Wisdom's stupid hot streak but we also would not have lost some of the others with Nico and Duffy scraping together some runs).
The Cubs playoff odds are at 67%... I'm sorry but you do not sell.
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Post by zeke on Jun 20, 2021 10:54:19 GMT -5
To sell or not to sell, that is the question. Difficult as it may be, I do not want the Ricketts to morph into Phil Wrigley's "loveable losers."
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 20, 2021 19:57:22 GMT -5
To sell or not to sell, that is the question. Difficult as it may be, I do not want the Ricketts to morph into Phil Wrigley's "loveable losers." As I said, the Cubs playoff odds are at 67%, you don't sell.
I completely understand where the Cubs are with all their impending free agents but you do not take a playoff team for granted. I'm not necessarily saying push all the cards in and sell the farm, but fill the glaring holes.
Obviously this team needs a Top of the Rotation starter to pair with Hendricks as well as a middle of the rotation type. I'd also target a center field upgrade, someone with plus speed.
Honestly, I don't know if the Rays would let him go, but I would shoot for a prospect for prospect swap, Marquez for Brujan and either put Vidal or Nico in CF. The Rays may want a little more than just Marquez and I'd be willing to add to facilitate... or I'd be willing to take back Kiemaier's contract to get it done. I'd add Happ if I could get a prospect with solid upside in return also.
As far as the pitching front is concerned, a TOR is a priority but I don't know if that is going to be a possibility. It would be more of a risky move like trading for Jon Gray vs. Max Scherzer. Most of these "star" pitchers are going to fetch an outside the top 100 return but solid prospect all the same, think somewhere between Ed Howard through Preciado.
The Cubs should not be a team that needs to go into a full rebuild mode, I don't thinking "wasting" a playoff year like Fine suggests would expedite the building of another championship team vs. slamming the window shut for a few years. Most free agents do not want to go to a "rebuilding" team unless it's a pretty significant overpay. Dollar for dollar, a free agent is going to choose the "ready to win now" team.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 20, 2021 20:18:20 GMT -5
I believe they are already but if we don’t get back a return of 15 times what we will if they just play out the season & let them walk that would be a mistake that will cost us/them for a decade. Jed is more than smart enough to know that so I think at a minimum they will do at least some trading.. What set the Cubs back had nothing to do with this year, it was mismanaging the roster 3 years previously and every subsequent year after that. Putting blind faith into "the core" and showing too much "veteran loyalty".
Nico is due back at the end of the month, Duffy in early July. The line up is significantly better with those two in it vs. what we have had production wise out of second and third (granted, we would not have won some of those games without Wisdom's stupid hot streak but we also would not have lost some of the others with Nico and Duffy scraping together some runs).
The Cubs playoff odds are at 67%... I'm sorry but you do not sell.
You do if squeezing out a Division title & then going home isn’t enough anymore especially with free agency gutting your team at years end. You must think long term as team owners unlike fans that can ride their pipe dreams. And getting close to MLB ready top prospects is hardly rebuilding, it is retooling especially if we can get some youngsters already in the bigs which with what they have to trade shouldn’t be a problem at all..
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 20, 2021 23:59:41 GMT -5
What set the Cubs back had nothing to do with this year, it was mismanaging the roster 3 years previously and every subsequent year after that. Putting blind faith into "the core" and showing too much "veteran loyalty".
Nico is due back at the end of the month, Duffy in early July. The line up is significantly better with those two in it vs. what we have had production wise out of second and third (granted, we would not have won some of those games without Wisdom's stupid hot streak but we also would not have lost some of the others with Nico and Duffy scraping together some runs).
The Cubs playoff odds are at 67%... I'm sorry but you do not sell.
You do if squeezing out a Division title & then going home isn’t enough anymore especially with free agency gutting your team at years end. You must think long term as team owners unlike fans that can ride their pipe dreams. And getting close to MLB ready top prospects is hardly rebuilding, it is retooling especially if we can get some youngsters already in the bigs which with what they have to trade shouldn’t be a problem at all.. I get it, you do not believe in the team. That's fine.
You are acting like the Cubs do not have the money to spend on free agency to bring back players, either their players or other free agent targets when they do. The farm is in pretty good shape as is and any one of Baez, Rizzo or Bryant would bring back a compensation pick (which you also deem as pretty worthless).
Me, I would, as previously stated, target a guy like Brujan (or Walls) from Tampa and do a prospect for prospect swap. I love Brujan and would deal Marquez for him in a heart beat.
I'd try pulling off another Cole Hamels style trade where we give up very little for a decent starter, at this point nearly anyone would be better than Arrieta.
Then I would look at dealing for an Ace style pitcher, Jon Gray kind of guy. He isn't an ace but he can dominate a game and he isn't going to cost you an Amaya or Davis to get him. You're looking at dealing one of the kids from the Darvish trade plus another no-name but has potential prospect.
At that point, I have a team loaded with potential to give you a deep run and I only dealt one top 100 prospect for another. Brujan or Nico can fill in for Baez next season and the Cubs can focus on re-signing Bryant or Rizzo or target someone else via free agency. Maybe look at re-signing Gray and bring Thompson into the rotation for next season.
**I'd look at dealing Amaya for Edwards if Brujan was off limits.
The days of top 100 prospects being dealt for rental pieces are pretty much over. We can re-hash that opinion after the trade deadline but that is what recent history has shown. With that in mind, what is more valuable to an organization, some B prospects or a post season run? My vote is post season run. We are not the Royals who cannot afford to re-sign players, we are not taxed out financially either. We are not a baron farm system lastly. The Cubs can deal if they choose to, if they crash and burn but me, I would best position myself for a post season run without mortgaging the future.
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Post by LeMoyne on Jun 21, 2021 1:25:36 GMT -5
I can understad why they traded Yu and thats called 21 million dallars......Rickettes claims he cant affor that big of a salary for one of the games ace starting pitchers......huhhhhh??? Oh yeah and lets throw in Caratini too, one of baseball's best up and coming cathers.....how are our A ball dudes from the trade doing with Daytona Beach or wherever they sent them? Any one hear anything about Ed Howard?
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Post by Mike on Jun 21, 2021 3:18:54 GMT -5
Uncertain re-opening guidelines in a pandemic and a depleted farm system say it was a good move.
That money was spent on Arrieta, Chafin, Williams, Marisnick, Romine, and Duffy.
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Post by jerm42991 on Jun 21, 2021 9:04:25 GMT -5
I believe they are already but if we don’t get back a return of 15 times what we will if they just play out the season & let them walk that would be a mistake that will cost us/them for a decade. Jed is more than smart enough to know that so I think at a minimum they will do at least some trading.. What set the Cubs back had nothing to do with this year, it was mismanaging the roster 3 years previously and every subsequent year after that. Putting blind faith into "the core" and showing too much "veteran loyalty".
Nico is due back at the end of the month, Duffy in early July. The line up is significantly better with those two in it vs. what we have had production wise out of second and third (granted, we would not have won some of those games without Wisdom's stupid hot streak but we also would not have lost some of the others with Nico and Duffy scraping together some runs).
The Cubs playoff odds are at 67%... I'm sorry but you do not sell.
Do you really think this team can beat the Mets or Dodgers in a 5 or 7 game series? Don’t give me the whole any team that gets hot can win BS, because if your only chance of winning is getting hot at the right time you aren’t going to win. If the same thing that has happened the last 3 years happens (which there is far more likely hood of that happening then 2015-2017), where they either just miss the playoffs or get bounced in their first series, was it worth it holding on? To me the answer is no and I don’t think this team has what it takes to make a deep run. So I would rather sell and set yourself up for 2 years from now, then hold on and fail to win a playoff game for the 4th year in a row
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 21, 2021 10:00:57 GMT -5
What set the Cubs back had nothing to do with this year, it was mismanaging the roster 3 years previously and every subsequent year after that. Putting blind faith into "the core" and showing too much "veteran loyalty".
Nico is due back at the end of the month, Duffy in early July. The line up is significantly better with those two in it vs. what we have had production wise out of second and third (granted, we would not have won some of those games without Wisdom's stupid hot streak but we also would not have lost some of the others with Nico and Duffy scraping together some runs).
The Cubs playoff odds are at 67%... I'm sorry but you do not sell.
Do you really think this team can beat the Mets or Dodgers in a 5 or 7 game series? Don’t give me the whole any team that gets hot can win BS, because if your only chance of winning is getting hot at the right time you aren’t going to win. If the same thing that has happened the last 3 years happens (which there is far more likely hood of that happening then 2015-2017), where they either just miss the playoffs or get bounced in their first series, was it worth it holding on? To me the answer is no and I don’t think this team has what it takes to make a deep run. So I would rather sell and set yourself up for 2 years from now, then hold on and fail to win a playoff game for the 4th year in a row I already addressed what I believe the Cubs should do.. Not going to rehash it again here.. but yes, if they make a couple tweaks, and get Hoerner and Duffy back, then they are good enough to bounce both the Mets and/or the Dodgers.
Funny you mention the Mets and the Dodgers as we have winning records against both teams including sweeps of both teams.
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