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Post by nukeslide on Nov 8, 2018 18:46:07 GMT -5
Predict the deal Harper and Machado will get. Plenty of rumors of Harper getting 10-14 years at $325-$400m but are there enough big time teams interested? Machado probably cost himself some money (at least some teams that won't be bidding on him) because of his anti-hustle talk/actions.
Harper 10yr $350m - Phillies
Machado 8yr $265m -White Sox
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Post by irishcubfan on Nov 8, 2018 19:03:38 GMT -5
Predict the deal Harper and Machado will get. Plenty of rumors of Harper getting 10-14 years at $325-$400m but are there enough big time teams interested? Machado probably cost himself some money (at least some teams that won't be bidding on him) because of his anti-hustle talk/actions.
Harper 10yr $350m - Phillies
Machado 8yr $265m -White Sox
I'll say 12 years at 420 for Harper with player opt outs with Philly. Machado 6 years 200-210 with player opt outs with NYY or NYM. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 9, 2018 6:45:00 GMT -5
Predict the deal Harper and Machado will get. Plenty of rumors of Harper getting 10-14 years at $325-$400m but are there enough big time teams interested? Machado probably cost himself some money (at least some teams that won't be bidding on him) because of his anti-hustle talk/actions.
Harper 10yr $350m - Phillies
Machado 8yr $265m -White Sox
I can't look at Machado's numbers and justify spending 30 million annually on him. Harper I can and I know Machado may have a higher WAR because of his defense but I can't do it. Baltimore is one of the best hitters parks in all of baseball and so is the AL East in general. Manny always put up good numbers but his career splits are not encouraging at all. Yeah he did a nice job in LA but historically Machado's home/away splits read .271/.319/.442/.761. I really think MAchado would have to go to an extreme hitter friendly park for a team to see a good return on their dollar. |
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Post by Mike on Nov 9, 2018 7:06:03 GMT -5
Machado to Rangers 9/243
Harper to Phillies 11/400
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Post by jsnhbe1 on Nov 9, 2018 7:27:35 GMT -5
Machado - Phillies for 9/$279 ($31 per)
Harper - Cubs for 8/$264 ($33 per as he takes a discount for the Cubs -- and I'm not a fan)
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Post by bryzzobrist on Nov 11, 2018 2:17:53 GMT -5
Machado - Phillies for 9/$279 ($31 per) Harper - Cubs for 8/$264 ($33 per as he takes a discount for the Cubs -- and I'm not a fan) I have a feeling that your numbers are the closest |
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Post by fine09 on Nov 11, 2018 12:07:29 GMT -5
Machado - Phillies for 9/$279 ($31 per) Harper - Cubs for 8/$264 ($33 per as he takes a discount for the Cubs -- and I'm not a fan) I tend to agree but both amounts 5% to 8% higher.. Also not a fan of Cubs signing Harper but I’ll learn to like it if they do. |
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Post by TheChico on Nov 20, 2018 11:41:54 GMT -5
I think Harper will not take a discount to joint any team, he will get his mega deal my Guess is the White Sox for 12 years $400 million which is $33.33 AAV. harper will have multiple Opt out clauses, the first being in third year of his deal.
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Post by lajoiesghost on Nov 20, 2018 12:07:20 GMT -5
I hope the Cubs stay far, far away from both of them. You can get two very good or "star" position players for the price of one "superstar". Only a team desperate to sell tickets should ever go for the superstar IMHO. In terms of massive contracts, the horrible ones far outweigh the ones that worked out. I hope the Cardinals sign both of them so they can be hamstrung for the next 10 years.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2018 12:21:24 GMT -5
Machado - Phillies for 9/$279 ($31 per) Harper - Cubs for 8/$264 ($33 per as he takes a discount for the Cubs -- and I'm not a fan) this looks about right. although I'm not so sure the cubs will do it, and machado is clearly the better player so he "deserves" the higher AAV. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2018 21:14:30 GMT -5
Machado - Phillies for 9/$279 ($31 per) Harper - Cubs for 8/$264 ($33 per as he takes a discount for the Cubs -- and I'm not a fan) this looks about right. although I'm not so sure the cubs will do it, and machado is clearly the better player so he "deserves" the higher AAV. Machado is not the better player. Understand his home/away stats and that there are more home runs hit in Baltimore than Coors Field. Machado outside of Baltimore and without looking it up right this moment has a batting average hovering around .270, .310 OBP and a .750 OPS. He is a really good defensive third baseman but I would be highly concerned about his batting splits adding to the fact he is an average defensive short stop. I'll take Harper and his true outcomes BB/HR/K over Machado any day of the week. Also, given that Harper has already turned down 300 million from the Nats, I assume it's going to take at least that for him to sign anywhere else. I think, and I may be way off base, that based on his home/away splits and NLCS and World Series performance, Machado's over under sits at $250 million. I think he ends up closer to that mark than 300 however I could see teams willing to give Machado more years than Harper given the violence in which Harper plays the game. I know he "dogs" it sometimes just like everyone else but he also hits that extra gear and his swing is insanely violent. I would be greatly concerned giving Harper a 10 year deal because I don't think he will produce at that elite level for more than 6. Machado's laziness factor probably will lead to a bit more longevity but I think he needs to play in Philly/Texas/Baltimore/Yankees stadium/Arizona to really see value on that deal. Manny's OBP generally runs about 40 points higher than his batting average so if he is only hitting .260/.270 that isn't really very good. |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Nov 26, 2018 10:04:41 GMT -5
this looks about right. although I'm not so sure the cubs will do it, and machado is clearly the better player so he "deserves" the higher AAV. Machado is not the better player. Understand his home/away stats and that there are more home runs hit in Baltimore than Coors Field. Machado outside of Baltimore and without looking it up right this moment has a batting average hovering around .270, .310 OBP and a .750 OPS. He is a really good defensive third baseman but I would be highly concerned about his batting splits adding to the fact he is an average defensive short stop. I'll take Harper and his true outcomes BB/HR/K over Machado any day of the week. Also, given that Harper has already turned down 300 million from the Nats, I assume it's going to take at least that for him to sign anywhere else. I think, and I may be way off base, that based on his home/away splits and NLCS and World Series performance, Machado's over under sits at $250 million. I think he ends up closer to that mark than 300 however I could see teams willing to give Machado more years than Harper given the violence in which Harper plays the game. I know he "dogs" it sometimes just like everyone else but he also hits that extra gear and his swing is insanely violent. I would be greatly concerned giving Harper a 10 year deal because I don't think he will produce at that elite level for more than 6. Machado's laziness factor probably will lead to a bit more longevity but I think he needs to play in Philly/Texas/Baltimore/Yankees stadium/Arizona to really see value on that deal. Manny's OBP generally runs about 40 points higher than his batting average so if he is only hitting .260/.270 that isn't really very good. My only disagreement here is on Harper and him turning down the Nats offer. There were a lot of things in that offer that I think Harper didn't like. There was not opt out. Most mega deals now have opt outs. I'm pretty sure he'll want one. Also, I think I read it didn't have any no trade protection, not sure how true, but I'd think Harper would want that as well so he's not dumped in Marlins hell one day  That being said, IMO, Machado will be around 10/270 and Harper 10/320. Machado with the Phillies and Harper with the Cubs, IMO. |
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Post by batman66 on Nov 26, 2018 10:12:40 GMT -5
Machado is not the better player. Understand his home/away stats and that there are more home runs hit in Baltimore than Coors Field. Machado outside of Baltimore and without looking it up right this moment has a batting average hovering around .270, .310 OBP and a .750 OPS. He is a really good defensive third baseman but I would be highly concerned about his batting splits adding to the fact he is an average defensive short stop. I'll take Harper and his true outcomes BB/HR/K over Machado any day of the week. Also, given that Harper has already turned down 300 million from the Nats, I assume it's going to take at least that for him to sign anywhere else. I think, and I may be way off base, that based on his home/away splits and NLCS and World Series performance, Machado's over under sits at $250 million. I think he ends up closer to that mark than 300 however I could see teams willing to give Machado more years than Harper given the violence in which Harper plays the game. I know he "dogs" it sometimes just like everyone else but he also hits that extra gear and his swing is insanely violent. I would be greatly concerned giving Harper a 10 year deal because I don't think he will produce at that elite level for more than 6. Machado's laziness factor probably will lead to a bit more longevity but I think he needs to play in Philly/Texas/Baltimore/Yankees stadium/Arizona to really see value on that deal. Manny's OBP generally runs about 40 points higher than his batting average so if he is only hitting .260/.270 that isn't really very good. My only disagreement here is on Harper and him turning down the Nats offer. There were a lot of things in that offer that I think Harper didn't like. There was not opt out. Most mega deals now have opt outs. I'm pretty sure he'll want one. Also, I think I read it didn't have any no trade protection, not sure how true, but I'd think Harper would want that as well so he's not dumped in Marlins hell one day That being said, IMO, Machado will be around 10/270 and Harper 10/320. Machado with the Phillies and Harper with the Cubs, IMO. And with the insane way the Nats are known to structure contracts .....see Scherzer and Strasburg's deals ,who they will be paying well beyond their days as a Nat , who knows how the offer to Harper rounded out to be 300+ million. |
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Nov 26, 2018 10:25:50 GMT -5
My only disagreement here is on Harper and him turning down the Nats offer. There were a lot of things in that offer that I think Harper didn't like. There was not opt out. Most mega deals now have opt outs. I'm pretty sure he'll want one. Also, I think I read it didn't have any no trade protection, not sure how true, but I'd think Harper would want that as well so he's not dumped in Marlins hell one day That being said, IMO, Machado will be around 10/270 and Harper 10/320. Machado with the Phillies and Harper with the Cubs, IMO. And with the insane way the Nats are known to structure contracts .....see Scherzer and Strasburg's deals ,who they will be paying well beyond their days as a Nat , who knows how the offer to Harper rounded out to be 300+ million. At the time it was reported that the Nats made an offer, during the GM meetings, most of the MLB people were saying the offer was actually "fair", but was missing a lot of details that most super star players would want in the deal. Basically the little things were mostly in the Nats favor. |
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Post by batman66 on Nov 26, 2018 10:34:40 GMT -5
And with the insane way the Nats are known to structure contracts .....see Scherzer and Strasburg's deals ,who they will be paying well beyond their days as a Nat , who knows how the offer to Harper rounded out to be 300+ million. At the time it was reported that the Nats made an offer, during the GM meetings, most of the MLB people were saying the offer was actually "fair", but was missing a lot of details that most super star players would want in the deal. Basically the little things were mostly in the Nats favor. Well when you offer a guy 300+ million , how can it not be looked at as fair. I'm just saying we don't know if it was like a Scherzer deal. Max is getting 210 million , but he's getting 15 million a year while he's likely retired and sitting at home AFTER his contract expires from 2022 to 2028. |
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Post by nukeslide on Jan 9, 2019 18:39:45 GMT -5
Predict the deal Harper and Machado will get. Plenty of rumors of Harper getting 10-14 years at $325-$400m but are there enough big time teams interested? Machado probably cost himself some money (at least some teams that won't be bidding on him) because of his anti-hustle talk/actions.
Harper 10yr $350m - Phillies
Machado 8yr $265m -White Sox
I'll say 12 years at 420 for Harper with player opt outs with Philly. Machado 6 years 200-210 with player opt outs with NYY or NYM. Two months later and I still feel confident with my teams/years/dollars. Both Phils and Sox rumored in for Manny but I would expect a mystery team to be rumored for leverage |
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Post by ddevonb on Jan 10, 2019 12:55:34 GMT -5
I think the annual will be similar but neither is getting more than 8 years.
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Post by carryonmyheywardson on Jan 10, 2019 14:28:56 GMT -5
I see Harper turning out a lot like A-Rod. He'll get a record breaking contract but unfortunately the team he goes to won't be able to put good pieces around him so they won't be good enough to compete and will trade him mid way into the deal. This still works out for Harper because he can still end up in a new town and get even more notoriety in his new location.
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Post by tehmpus on Jan 10, 2019 22:39:25 GMT -5
I see Harper turning out a lot like A-Rod. He'll get a record breaking contract but unfortunately the team he goes to won't be able to put good pieces around him so they won't be good enough to compete and will trade him mid way into the deal. This still works out for Harper because he can still end up in a new town and get even more notoriety in his new location. Doubtful. He will have a full no trade clause, and possible opt outs depending on how desperate a team is to sign him. |
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Post by carryonmyheywardson on Jan 10, 2019 23:45:03 GMT -5
I see Harper turning out a lot like A-Rod. He'll get a record breaking contract but unfortunately the team he goes to won't be able to put good pieces around him so they won't be good enough to compete and will trade him mid way into the deal. This still works out for Harper because he can still end up in a new town and get even more notoriety in his new location. Doubtful. He will have a full no trade clause, and possible opt outs depending on how desperate a team is to sign him. For his sake if he's getting this type of contract (350+) he'd be stupid to opt out early. There are enough people in organizations thinking this type of money for this type of player is crazy right now. His value is very unlikely to be higher 2 or more years from now. If the point you are trying to make is he'll have a change of heart 3-4 years into this deal and decide to take less on a winning team, then the opt out isn't a bad strategy. But if we're looking financially, no way should he opt out of this type of deal. |
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