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Post by fine09 on Oct 10, 2024 13:30:09 GMT -5
I would love to see a poll on him staying or going on here but sadly I don't have a clue as to how to do that so maybe some of you substantially more savvy could do that please?
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Oct 10, 2024 14:25:27 GMT -5
I'm saying yes.... too many people are "reporting" that he will opt in. No one that I have read is really saying he won't so I will go with yes.
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Post by fine09 on Oct 10, 2024 14:36:26 GMT -5
I'm saying yes.... too many people are "reporting" that he will opt in. No one that I have read is really saying he won't so I will go with yes. Thanks for setting that up Steve. I am also voting that he will exercise his option this year as well but I really wish that he wouldn't. I'd be perfectly okay with him getting a nice 3 or 4 year deal in the 60 to 80 million range even if it is in the NL. I just think we could really use the outfield space for Cassie in 2025 who I think just might put up the same kind of numbers that we could get from Cody for about 2-1/2% his cost. It's not impossible that he doesn't opt in so I'll just hope for the best. |
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Post by batman66 on Oct 10, 2024 14:53:29 GMT -5
I say he stays.
I'm also very torn on this being a good or bad thing for the Cubs so I'm at the point where I'm ok with whatever he decides.
Yes if he leaves it frees up more payroll room and a possible position for Caissie which they need to make happen somehow .
But I like Bellinger a lot and I think he's an important part of the teams chemistry and I think they are a better team with him on it than not.
18 homers 78 rbi's .758 OPS should not be all that hard to replace .
what will be hard to replace
.331 RISP
.310 MEN ON
.309 2 OUT RISP
.343 LATE AND CLOSE
You won't find many players in the game who better those stats , I'm not saying there aren't any , but who's going to replace that?
And hitting with runners on was a team problem , so you are subtracting one of the best in baseball , that doesn't solve the problem does it ?
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Post by skokiejoe on Oct 10, 2024 15:46:20 GMT -5
Yes Means Opt in
No Means Opt out
Just wanted to be clear. I think he will opt in
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Post by fine09 on Oct 10, 2024 16:08:43 GMT -5
I say he stays. I'm also very torn on this being a good or bad thing for the Cubs so I'm at the point where I'm ok with whatever he decides. Yes if he leaves it frees up more payroll room and a possible position for Caissie which they need to make happen somehow . But I like Bellinger a lot and I think he's an important part of the teams chemistry and I think they are a better team with him on it than not. 18 homers 78 rbi's .758 OPS should not be all that hard to replace . what will be hard to replace .331 RISP .310 MEN ON .309 2 OUT RISP .343 LATE AND CLOSE You won't find many players in the game who better those stats , I'm not saying there aren't any , but who's going to replace that? And hitting with runners on was a team problem , so you are subtracting one of the best in baseball , that doesn't solve the problem does it ? That is the quandary & I agree that it is easier said than done to replace that for 2025 if he goes.. |
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Post by batman66 on Oct 11, 2024 7:32:47 GMT -5
I say he stays. I'm also very torn on this being a good or bad thing for the Cubs so I'm at the point where I'm ok with whatever he decides. Yes if he leaves it frees up more payroll room and a possible position for Caissie which they need to make happen somehow . But I like Bellinger a lot and I think he's an important part of the teams chemistry and I think they are a better team with him on it than not. 18 homers 78 rbi's .758 OPS should not be all that hard to replace . what will be hard to replace .331 RISP .310 MEN ON .309 2 OUT RISP .343 LATE AND CLOSE You won't find many players in the game who better those stats , I'm not saying there aren't any , but who's going to replace that? And hitting with runners on was a team problem , so you are subtracting one of the best in baseball , that doesn't solve the problem does it ? That is the quandary & I agree that it is easier said than done to replace that for 2025 if he goes.. Great team guy , good hitter, good fielder no matter where you put him , good baserunner and as shown by his splits, great in the clutch and most of us want him to opt out. And even myself who is probably his biggest fan on here won't be upset if he opts out because I want to see Caissie on the roster. But the more I look at the stats I posted , how does him opting out make them better? Sure it opens up more payroll money for them to possibly spend , but is what they spend it on going to help the Cubs more than he does? Is Caissie as a rookie going to help them more than he does? And that is IF his spot goes to Caissie , how things have been , fucking Tauchman might end up in his spot, and that's nothing against Mike, I like him a lot but as a 4th OF. Or they use the Bellinger spot and payroll room on O'Neil , who I don't hate but here are his splits compared to Belli's , only thing close is the late and close RISP Belli .331 O'Neil 231 MEN ON Belli .310 O'Neil 239 2out RISP Belli .309 O'Neil .195 LATE AND CLOSE Belli .343 O'Neil .339 |
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Post by fine09 on Oct 11, 2024 8:25:29 GMT -5
That is the quandary & I agree that it is easier said than done to replace that for 2025 if he goes.. Great team guy , good hitter, good fielder no matter where you put him , good baserunner and as shown by his splits, great in the clutch and most of us want him to opt out. And even myself who is probably his biggest fan on here won't be upset if he opts out because I want to see Caissie on the roster. But the more I look at the stats I posted , how does him opting out make them better? Sure it opens up more payroll money for them to possibly spend , but is what they spend it on going to help the Cubs more than he does? Is Caissie as a rookie going to help them more than he does? And that is IF his spot goes to Caissie , how things have been , fucking Tauchman might end up in his spot, and that's nothing against Mike, I like him a lot but as a 4th OF. Or they use the Bellinger spot and payroll room on O'Neil , who I don't hate but here are his splits compared to Belli's , only thing close is the late and close RISP Belli .331 O'Neil 231 MEN ON Belli .310 O'Neil 239 2out RISP Belli .309 O'Neil .195 LATE AND CLOSE Belli .343 O'Neil .339 AND there is always a chance that Belli has a season more like 2023 that this year which is very possible. I still think he might be able to land even a 5 year 100 mil deal with an opt out or two. I don't think it's impossible for Cassie & even Shaw to produce well over a replacement player & maybe closer to an all star level. BUT, they have to spend the savings on making the team much better.. |
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Post by irishcubfan on Oct 11, 2024 9:31:49 GMT -5
That is the quandary & I agree that it is easier said than done to replace that for 2025 if he goes.. Great team guy , good hitter, good fielder no matter where you put him , good baserunner and as shown by his splits, great in the clutch and most of us want him to opt out. And even myself who is probably his biggest fan on here won't be upset if he opts out because I want to see Caissie on the roster. But the more I look at the stats I posted , how does him opting out make them better? Sure it opens up more payroll money for them to possibly spend , but is what they spend it on going to help the Cubs more than he does? Is Caissie as a rookie going to help them more than he does? And that is IF his spot goes to Caissie , how things have been , fucking Tauchman might end up in his spot, and that's nothing against Mike, I like him a lot but as a 4th OF. Or they use the Bellinger spot and payroll room on O'Neil , who I don't hate but here are his splits compared to Belli's , only thing close is the late and close RISP Belli .331 O'Neil 231 MEN ON Belli .310 O'Neil 239 2out RISP Belli .309 O'Neil .195 LATE AND CLOSE Belli .343 O'Neil .339 This is the problem with either ownership and/or Hoyer/front office as they have no intention of committing to an actual winner on the field. Hoyer has already laid the groundwork for a slow, methodical wait until the dust settles off-season. If Bellinger leaves there will likely be a short term downgrade, and it is a big if as I think it is certain that Bellinger will stay. Cubs need more slug, if Bellinger stays he needs to produce more in the slug department as when this team was winning they were out slugging opponents. One thing that hasn't been discussed is a Bellinger trade. If Bellinger stays do they trade him to a team such as Philly? If they need to include money to trade him what is the point of the trade? To open playing time for Caissie/Shaw/whomever at DH/some form of rotation in the field? Bellinger or Caissie may be a choice. Not the topic of the thread but Hoerner or Shaw may be a choice for a more aggressive front office approach. |
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Post by irishcubfan on Oct 11, 2024 9:34:04 GMT -5
That is the quandary & I agree that it is easier said than done to replace that for 2025 if he goes.. Great team guy , good hitter, good fielder no matter where you put him , good baserunner and as shown by his splits, great in the clutch and most of us want him to opt out. And even myself who is probably his biggest fan on here won't be upset if he opts out because I want to see Caissie on the roster. But the more I look at the stats I posted , how does him opting out make them better? Sure it opens up more payroll money for them to possibly spend , but is what they spend it on going to help the Cubs more than he does? Is Caissie as a rookie going to help them more than he does? And that is IF his spot goes to Caissie , how things have been , fucking Tauchman might end up in his spot, and that's nothing against Mike, I like him a lot but as a 4th OF. Or they use the Bellinger spot and payroll room on O'Neil , who I don't hate but here are his splits compared to Belli's , only thing close is the late and close RISP Belli .331 O'Neil 231 MEN ON Belli .310 O'Neil 239 2out RISP Belli .309 O'Neil .195 LATE AND CLOSE Belli .343 O'Neil .339 These short sample size stats are fickle. Can easily flip. Much like bullpens. |
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Post by kfidd on Oct 11, 2024 9:40:10 GMT -5
Bellinger did exactly what the league needed to see him do this season, find out who he more reliably is going forward. He’s not the 2023 anomaly, he’s the well rounded player that is above average but not great in all aspects of the game. I think people way over value the added salary he gets next season by staying. If you believe he can get multiple years at 20m+ annually (which I do) then he is trading an extra 7.5m next season for the guaranteed years that every player craves (the 32.5m figure is referenced a lot but that is with the 5m option which he can also get right now by opting out, it’s just a matter of now or next season).
He does not have QO compensation this time around. The centerfield market is extremely thin (Harrison Bader anyone?) while he can also appease some interest at the outfield corners and first base. He is about to be on the wrong side of 30. He has missed significant playing time in three of the last four seasons due to injury. There are plenty of reasons to believe now is the time for him to opt out. Even Boras is already quoted out there highlighting his strong two month stretch to close out the season (124 wRC+) and the unique Wrigley factors this year hampering down the offense of not just him by everyone.
Also, I keep reading references to “industry people” saying he’s not opting out. Since when do we put more value in what the consistently wrong Nightengale and Heyman versus Rosenthal and Sharma?
I am voting opt out. It didn’t work for him last offseason because of the massive questions surrounding his 2023 performance. The league doesn’t have to ask those questions anymore, there is much more confidence in what kind of play he is today and he’s running out of time to reliably seek that multi year deal considering his age and injury history. Those factors coupled with the lack of QO attachment and very weak centerfield market will lead to his opting out.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Oct 11, 2024 11:42:17 GMT -5
Yeah, he wasn't 2023, but to be fair he showed flashes of it in May and July. I think we all agree, 2019 Belly is long gone, but I think he can still be 2023 Belly. The question is, are you willing to take that chance? I mean, I get the Cubs don't have a choice, it's Belly's decision, but they can still trade him.
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Post by TheChico on Oct 11, 2024 11:45:59 GMT -5
Yeah, he wasn't 2023, but to be fair he showed flashes of it in May and July. I think we all agree, 2019 Belly is long gone, but I think he can still be 2023 Belly. The question is, are you willing to take that chance? I mean, I get the Cubs don't have a choice, it's Belly's decision, but they can still trade him. I don't have a lot of faith what Jed would do with that extra money if Belli does opt out, so in a way I prefer he opt in which forces Jed to be more creative and maybe even get out the comfort zone to improve the team. |
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Post by batman66 on Oct 11, 2024 14:00:32 GMT -5
Yeah, he wasn't 2023, but to be fair he showed flashes of it in May and July. I think we all agree, 2019 Belly is long gone, but I think he can still be 2023 Belly. The question is, are you willing to take that chance? I mean, I get the Cubs don't have a choice, it's Belly's decision, but they can still trade him. I don't have a lot of faith what Jed would do with that extra money if Belli does opt out, so in a way I prefer he opt in which forces Jed to be more creative and maybe even get out the comfort zone to improve the team. Bingo , Belly staying might make Jed reach into those big boy pants and find one of his balls and make him get creative and do something unlike his usual safe mode of operation. Like I said, I think the team is better with Belly on it so him leaving doesn't help anything other than the payroll and unless they sign Soto which we all know won't happen , how do you replace what Belly gave them clutch wise on a team that was starving to have guys hit with runners on. |
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Post by TheChico on Oct 11, 2024 15:21:44 GMT -5
I don't have a lot of faith what Jed would do with that extra money if Belli does opt out, so in a way I prefer he opt in which forces Jed to be more creative and maybe even get out the comfort zone to improve the team. Bingo , Belly staying might make Jed reach into those big boy pants and find one of his balls and make him get creative and do something unlike his usual safe mode of operation. Like I said, I think the team is better with Belly on it so him leaving doesn't help anything other than the payroll and unless they sign Soto which we all know won't happen , how do you replace what Belly gave them clutch wise on a team that was starving to have guys hit with runners on. Yep! You can still put a 90+ win team together even if Belli opts in, in a way it kind of prevents Jed from signing somebody like Santander who is likely coming off a outliner career year and likely regresses back to his career normal which does not move the needle if Belli opts out. |
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Post by batman66 on Oct 11, 2024 15:32:27 GMT -5
Bingo , Belly staying might make Jed reach into those big boy pants and find one of his balls and make him get creative and do something unlike his usual safe mode of operation. Like I said, I think the team is better with Belly on it so him leaving doesn't help anything other than the payroll and unless they sign Soto which we all know won't happen , how do you replace what Belly gave them clutch wise on a team that was starving to have guys hit with runners on. Yep! You can still put a 90+ win team together even if Belli opts in, in a way it kind of prevents Jed from signing somebody like Santander who is likely coming off a outliner career year and likely regresses back to his career normal which does not move the needle if Belli opts out. The frightening thing is and I don't hate either player, but the two guys who seem in Jed's wheelhouse price wise and power bat wise are O'Neil and Santander and they are both OF's which the Cubs already have more than they know what to do with. And signing one of them even further complicates the Caissie situation for now . I mean in two years you have Happ and Suzuki's contracts expiring , so in time it can be worked out and Caissie and Alcantara might be ready to take over , but Caissie isn't going to need to be in AAA for 3 years. Gotta find a way to get him in Chicago in 2025 and it's not going to be by signing yet another OF. |
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Post by Mike on Oct 11, 2024 16:45:15 GMT -5
I hate thinking it, but the easiest player to move is Hoerner if Belli opts in... and if he does opt in, he's playing RF/1B or CF vs LHP if you want to optimize PCA. That big boy pants decision would be to not waste Caissie in AAA for 2025 and send him and Hoerner (11.67) + Paredes (6.9) + Tauchman (2.9) + Almonte (2.2) to Toronto for Vlad (29.6) = so, you're only taking on 5.23M and losing Caissie. Sign Kyle Tucker in 2026? That'd be a non-Soto Jed plan right there.
21 Happ (S)
30 Vlad
19 Suzuki
.7 Busch (L)
28 Belli (L)
26 Swanson
.7 PCA (L)
.7 Amaya
.7 Shaw
------------
126.8
6.4 Steele (L)
25 Flaherty
13 Imanaga (L)
18 Taillon
2.1 Wicks (L) / Assad / Wesneski
--------------
64.5
= 191.3 + 5 + 10 + 5 = 211.3 + bullpen 15 + bench 5 = 231.3
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Post by TheChico on Oct 11, 2024 16:45:51 GMT -5
Yep! You can still put a 90+ win team together even if Belli opts in, in a way it kind of prevents Jed from signing somebody like Santander who is likely coming off a outliner career year and likely regresses back to his career normal which does not move the needle if Belli opts out. The frightening thing is and I don't hate either player, but the two guys who seem in Jed's wheelhouse price wise and power bat wise are O'Neil and Santander and they are both OF's which the Cubs already have more than they know what to do with. And signing one of them even further complicates the Caissie situation for now . I mean in two years you have Happ and Suzuki's contracts expiring , so in time it can be worked out and Caissie and Alcantara might be ready to take over , but Caissie isn't going to need to be in AAA for 3 years. Gotta find a way to get him in Chicago in 2025 and it's not going to be by signing yet another OF. I don't hate either player either, it just not make a ton of sense in the Cubs current situation, good players but Cubs need to think bigger. signing either one of them does complicate the situation I agree, they don't move the needle enough and not a big upgrade from Belli, so you are getting yourself into another long term deal with a good player while still not knowing what to do with some of your prospects. If Bellinger opts out, you still have a nice insurance policy in Tauchman/Canario who can start the season if you don't believe Caissie is not ready but at least their is a lane when he is. That is the way I would role with that situation, now if he opts in, which is cool, but you bought up a good point, Happ and Suzuki are free agents in 2 season and it is highly likely Bellinger opts out after 2025, how do you get the outfield prospects time in 2025 or worry about it when it is time to worry about it. |
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Post by TheChico on Oct 11, 2024 16:53:04 GMT -5
I hate thinking it, but the easiest player to move is Hoerner if Belli opts in... and if he does opt in, he's playing RF/1B or CF vs LHP if you want to optimize PCA. That big boy pants decision would be to not waste Caissie in AAA for 2025 and send him and Hoerner (11.67) + Paredes (6.9) + Tauchman (2.9) + Almonte (2.2) to Toronto for Vlad (29.6) = so, you're only taking on 5.23M and losing Caissie. Sign Kyle Tucker in 2026? That'd be a non-Soto Jed plan right there. 21 Happ (S) 30 Vlad 19 Suzuki .7 Busch (L) 28 Belli (L) 26 Swanson .7 PCA (L) .7 Amaya .7 Shaw ------------ 126.8 6.4 Steele (L) 25 Flaherty 13 Imanaga (L) 18 Taillon 2.1 Wicks (L) / Assad / Wesneski -------------- 64.5 = 191.3 + 5 + 10 + 5 = 211.3 + bullpen 15 + bench 5 = 231.3 Love Nico but he can net you a need while creating a lane for Shaw. Having Bellinger and Suzuki sandwhich between Vlady in the lineup could be very fun to watch. |
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Post by Mike on Oct 11, 2024 16:58:59 GMT -5
Big boy pants would be trading for Vlad and signing Soto.
LF Happ (S)
3B Vlad
RF Soto (L)
DH Suzuki
2B Busch (L)
1B Belli (L)
SS Swanson
CF PCA (L) / Alcantara
C Amaya
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