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Post by ecky23 on May 26, 2016 9:28:33 GMT -5
I am thrilled with how this team approaches each at bat and the # of pitches seen, b/c it helps the Cubs on multiple levels. Possible trend to watch: Cub hangover.
When a team faces the Cubs, they're likely to have been thru a game or two during the series where their staff struggles thru 175-200 pitch games, as high opponent pitchcounts are the rule, not the exception for this team. That doesn't exactly set up that opponent for a great week ahead, unless they get a shutdown performance from a SP or two. I have no evidence of this yet ... but gotta think Matheny is hoping a guy like Leake goes 8 in his next start. Of course, with the Cards' luck, they will get a 5 inn shortened game and/or a rainout.
Just thinking aloud.
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2016 10:06:10 GMT -5
I am thrilled with how this team approaches each at bat and the # of pitches seen, b/c it helps the Cubs on multiple levels. Possible trend to watch: Cub hangover. When a team faces the Cubs, they're likely to have been thru a game or two during the series where their staff struggles thru 175-200 pitch games, as high opponent pitchcounts are the rule, not the exception for this team. That doesn't exactly set up that opponent for a great week ahead, unless they get a shutdown performance from a SP or two. I have no evidence of this yet ... but gotta think Matheny is hoping a guy like Leake goes 8 in his next start. Of course, with the Cards' luck, they will get a 5 inn shortened game and/or a rainout. Just thinking aloud. I think we are already seeing it be an effect on teams. I know we've seen in the close games they've played teams end up using their closer in non save situations just to try to keep the game close because most of the pen had already been emptied by the late innings. And the early starter exits usually result in a pen arm throwing 30-40 pitches and not being available the next game giving a team a short pen for the series especially if it happens in the first game. |
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Post by jerm42991 on May 26, 2016 10:10:51 GMT -5
I am thrilled with how this team approaches each at bat and the # of pitches seen, b/c it helps the Cubs on multiple levels. Possible trend to watch: Cub hangover. When a team faces the Cubs, they're likely to have been thru a game or two during the series where their staff struggles thru 175-200 pitch games, as high opponent pitchcounts are the rule, not the exception for this team. That doesn't exactly set up that opponent for a great week ahead, unless they get a shutdown performance from a SP or two. I have no evidence of this yet ... but gotta think Matheny is hoping a guy like Leake goes 8 in his next start. Of course, with the Cards' luck, they will get a 5 inn shortened game and/or a rainout. Just thinking aloud. I think we are already seeing it be an effect on teams. I know we've seen in the close games they've played teams end up using their closer in non save situations just to try to keep the game close because most of the pen had already been emptied by the late innings. And the early starter exits usually result in a pen arm throwing 30-40 pitches and not being available the next game giving a team a short pen for the series especially if it happens in the first game. I mentioned this before and I'll say it again. If this team can continue to get starters out of the game by the 6th inning. They won't be beat in a 5 or 7 game series. The bullpen will be toast after the 3rd game. Now as we have seen, that can be easier said than done |
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Post by ecky23 on May 26, 2016 10:42:05 GMT -5
I think we are already seeing it be an effect on teams. I know we've seen in the close games they've played teams end up using their closer in non save situations just to try to keep the game close because most of the pen had already been emptied by the late innings. And the early starter exits usually result in a pen arm throwing 30-40 pitches and not being available the next game giving a team a short pen for the series especially if it happens in the first game. I mentioned this before and I'll say it again. If this team can continue to get starters out of the game by the 6th inning. They won't be beat in a 5 or 7 game series. The bullpen will be toast after the 3rd game. Now as we have seen, that can be easier said than done You can see it in a guy like Russell. The fact that a hitter from the 7/8 hole is hovering near league leaders in RBI is one thing, but he's also cut his K/BB ratio almost in half from last year. Love watching this whole lineup learn. Yeah, a few bumps here and there as expected ... but seeing the quick adjustments too. |
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Post by zegometer on May 26, 2016 11:38:56 GMT -5
I'd like to see what the records of the teams we played in the series after they played the Cubs... With a spent bullpen and taxed starters. Those teams are probably reaping the benefits by seeing more crappy long relievers bc the others need rest.
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Post by lajoiesghost on May 26, 2016 11:57:19 GMT -5
I am thrilled with how this team approaches each at bat and the # of pitches seen, b/c it helps the Cubs on multiple levels. Possible trend to watch: Cub hangover. When a team faces the Cubs, they're likely to have been thru a game or two during the series where their staff struggles thru 175-200 pitch games, as high opponent pitchcounts are the rule, not the exception for this team. That doesn't exactly set up that opponent for a great week ahead, unless they get a shutdown performance from a SP or two. I have no evidence of this yet ... but gotta think Matheny is hoping a guy like Leake goes 8 in his next start. Of course, with the Cards' luck, they will get a 5 inn shortened game and/or a rainout. Just thinking aloud. I have often wondered about this too. I think it can be put to your advantage in a number of ways. If you are playing a division opponent or later in the year, a team you are trying to get home field playoff advantage against, do you try to wear out their pitchers to affect them in their NEXT series? By the same token, lets say the Pirates are playing your opponent right after you are. Would it be over thinking it if you told your players to be aggressive in that series so that their staff is rested when they play the Pirates? |
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Post by ecky23 on May 26, 2016 13:38:34 GMT -5
I am thrilled with how this team approaches each at bat and the # of pitches seen, b/c it helps the Cubs on multiple levels. Possible trend to watch: Cub hangover. When a team faces the Cubs, they're likely to have been thru a game or two during the series where their staff struggles thru 175-200 pitch games, as high opponent pitchcounts are the rule, not the exception for this team. That doesn't exactly set up that opponent for a great week ahead, unless they get a shutdown performance from a SP or two. I have no evidence of this yet ... but gotta think Matheny is hoping a guy like Leake goes 8 in his next start. Of course, with the Cards' luck, they will get a 5 inn shortened game and/or a rainout. Just thinking aloud. I have often wondered about this too. I think it can be put to your advantage in a number of ways. If you are playing a division opponent or later in the year, a team you are trying to get home field playoff advantage against, do you try to wear out their pitchers to affect them in their NEXT series? By the same token, lets say the Pirates are playing your opponent right after you are. Would it be over thinking it if you told your players to be aggressive in that series so that their staff is rested when they play the Pirates? Good points, but I think you just do what you do to win, period. That next series between two other teams is not something to even attempt to control (i.e. trying to affect an outcome). I just think the math at play here -- all other things being equal -- gives the opponent's next foe a bit of an advantage if the Cubs' lineup does its job. There will definitely be some knuckle-draggers and ice-baths in that opposing bullpen. |
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Post by ecky23 on May 26, 2016 13:42:37 GMT -5
I'd like to see what the records of the teams we played in the series after they played the Cubs... With a spent bullpen and taxed starters. Those teams are probably reaping the benefits by seeing more crappy long relievers bc the others need rest. Was wondering the same. There are good football teams that have the ability to wear down other teams to the point that their opponents' "next game" records are significantly lower. I'm guessing such a stat is available in MLB ... wouldn't know where to look. Yes, we are overthinking this. Not that there's anything wrong with that. |
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Post by zegometer on May 26, 2016 13:55:51 GMT -5
Lol, what else to do on an off day?
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Post by jerm42991 on May 27, 2016 9:30:35 GMT -5
So I looked at the data and there is zero effect. So I looked at the following 3 days after a team played the Cubs.
Day 1 teams were 5-5
Day 2 teams were 7-7
Day 3 teams were 5-9
That is a total record of 17-21 which is a .447 win %. Those teams overall record minus the games against the Cubs is .471 win %. So about a 4 game difference over the season. Considering most of that has been due to the 3rd day, I don't think there is really any impact at all.
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Post by ecky23 on May 27, 2016 11:47:44 GMT -5
So I looked at the data and there is zero effect. So I looked at the following 3 days after a team played the Cubs. Day 1 teams were 5-5 Day 2 teams were 7-7 Day 3 teams were 5-9 That is a total record of 17-21 which is a .447 win %. Those teams overall record minus the games against the Cubs is .471 win %. So about a 4 game difference over the season. Considering most of that has been due to the 3rd day, I don't think there is really any impact at all. Dang it. I thought I was onto something. Thanks for the homework jerm. Still, there could be a longitudinal / cumulative effect. Yes, yes indeed, that's what I will tell myself! |
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Post by jerm42991 on May 27, 2016 11:50:27 GMT -5
So I looked at the data and there is zero effect. So I looked at the following 3 days after a team played the Cubs. Day 1 teams were 5-5 Day 2 teams were 7-7 Day 3 teams were 5-9 That is a total record of 17-21 which is a .447 win %. Those teams overall record minus the games against the Cubs is .471 win %. So about a 4 game difference over the season. Considering most of that has been due to the 3rd day, I don't think there is really any impact at all. Dang it. I thought I was onto something. Thanks for the homework jerm. Still, there could be a longitudinal / cumulative effect. Yes, yes indeed, that's what I will tell myself! What will be worth doing is looking at Augus and September compared to now and see if there is a difference. If I had to guess, as the season went on and guys are starting to tire and slow down, the effects could be much larger |
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Post by ecky23 on May 27, 2016 11:54:56 GMT -5
Dang it. I thought I was onto something. Thanks for the homework jerm. Still, there could be a longitudinal / cumulative effect. Yes, yes indeed, that's what I will tell myself! What will be worth doing is looking at Augus and September compared to now and see if there is a difference. If I had to guess, as the season went on and guys are starting to tire and slow down, the effects could be much larger Yeah ... and there will be more times with the unbalanced schedule where the Cubs faceoff with another team 6 times in 9 days or something like that. If the lineup continues with the approach, that could spell a long couple of weeks for some bullpen. |
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