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Post by kfidd on Mar 18, 2024 11:27:15 GMT -5
I think we sometimes forget what makes a bench player versus an everyday starter. There is always a lot of chirping about Wisdom and his strikeout rate. Yet despite his high strikeout rate (36.8%), he also posted a .789 OPS, 107 OPS+, and a 109 wRC+ last season. Those are all top ten ranks (some top five) in MLB last year for all third baseman with a minimum 250 PA.
We always remember the bad more than the good, and with a 36.8% K rate there is a lot of bad to remember. Yet in 2023 the following are your Cubs leaders in RBI/PA:
1. Bellinger, 0.174 2. Morel, 0.163 3. Wisdom, 0.152 4. Gomes, 0.150
Yes, that’s right. Wisdom drove in more runs per plate appearance than guys like Suzuki, Swanson, Happ, etc. I’m not trying to say Wisdom is an everyday regular. I’m not advocating for him to be a starter. I am trying to highlight something that Wisdom does far better than most Cubs fans give him credit for and that when we think about bench roles in today’s game they are often very specialized. Having a guy that can provide instant offense and drive in runs like he can is valuable. Yes, he is going to strike out a lot. You know what he’d be if he didn’t? An .850-.900 OPS bat that is an all star caliber player. We aren’t talking about him getting starting opportunities though, we are talking about him filling a bench role.
Really quick too, for everyone clamoring for Cooper over Wisdom as a no brainer. Cooper as a pinch hitter in 2023: .214/.214/.429. In his career: .205/.340/.308. In the same way that I’m not arguing for Wisdom as a starter I’m not arguing against Cooper getting a roster spot with that slash line. Instead it’s a reminder for us all just how difficult pinch hitting is. We’ve all heard this time and time again from both coaches and players, it’s perhaps the most difficult call to answer off the bench and is why there are no real examples of players who consistently thrive at it. Instead identify what we want from each individual bench role and find the right fit. Wisdom makes a lot more sense in this role than many are willing to give him credit for.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 18, 2024 11:42:14 GMT -5
I think we sometimes forget what makes a bench player versus an everyday starter. There is always a lot of chirping about Wisdom and his strikeout rate. Yet despite his high strikeout rate (36.8%), he also posted a .789 OPS, 107 OPS+, and a 109 wRC+ last season. Those are all top ten ranks (some top five) in MLB last year for all third baseman with a minimum 250 PA. We always remember the bad more than the good, and with a 36.8% K rate there is a lot of bad to remember. Yet in 2023 the following are your Cubs leaders in RBI/PA: 1. Bellinger, 0.174 2. Morel, 0.163 3. Wisdom, 0.152 4. Gomes, 0.150 Yes, that’s right. Wisdom drove in more runs per plate appearance than guys like Suzuki, Swanson, Happ, etc. I’m not trying to say Wisdom is an everyday regular. I’m not advocating for him to be a starter. I am trying to highlight something that Wisdom does far better than most Cubs fans give him credit for and that when we think about bench roles in today’s game they are often very specialized. Having a guy that can provide instant offense and drive in runs like he can is valuable. Yes, he is going to strike out a lot. You know what he’d be if he didn’t? An .850-.900 OPS bat that is an all star caliber player. We aren’t talking about him getting starting opportunities though, we are talking about him filling a bench role. Really quick too, for everyone clamoring for Cooper over Wisdom as a no brainer. Cooper as a pinch hitter in 2023: .214/.214/.429. In his career: .205/.340/.308. In the same way that I’m not arguing for Wisdom as a starter I’m not arguing against Cooper getting a roster spot with that slash line. Instead it’s a reminder for us all just how difficult pinch hitting is. We’ve all heard this time and time again from both coaches and players, it’s perhaps the most difficult call to answer off the bench and is why there are no real examples of players who consistently thrive at it. Instead identify what we want from each individual bench role and find the right fit. Wisdom makes a lot more sense in this role than many are willing to give him credit for. You and others make valid points about him in a bench role, I've just wanted him gone for years and with the current collection of players they have and ample bodies to play what he can play , now seems the time. Off the bench I want more of a contact guy , situational hitter type , not a guy who's a 2 outcome guy. Cooper as a bench player makes more sense to me for the fact that if Busch isn't cutting it at 1b , and the don't want to play Belly there yet he won't be a guy that will hurt you if you have to play him there a lot , or as a RH DH . I'm not seeing him strictly as a pinch hitter like I do Wisdom at this point , I'd much rather see somebody like Vazquez or Slaughter get a look who has some potential upside, we know what Wisdom is and always will be at this point.
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Post by cfin on Mar 18, 2024 11:57:57 GMT -5
I think we sometimes forget what makes a bench player versus an everyday starter. There is always a lot of chirping about Wisdom and his strikeout rate. Yet despite his high strikeout rate (36.8%), he also posted a .789 OPS, 107 OPS+, and a 109 wRC+ last season. Those are all top ten ranks (some top five) in MLB last year for all third baseman with a minimum 250 PA. We always remember the bad more than the good, and with a 36.8% K rate there is a lot of bad to remember. Yet in 2023 the following are your Cubs leaders in RBI/PA: 1. Bellinger, 0.174 2. Morel, 0.163 3. Wisdom, 0.152 4. Gomes, 0.150 Yes, that’s right. Wisdom drove in more runs per plate appearance than guys like Suzuki, Swanson, Happ, etc. I’m not trying to say Wisdom is an everyday regular. I’m not advocating for him to be a starter. I am trying to highlight something that Wisdom does far better than most Cubs fans give him credit for and that when we think about bench roles in today’s game they are often very specialized. Having a guy that can provide instant offense and drive in runs like he can is valuable. Yes, he is going to strike out a lot. You know what he’d be if he didn’t? An .850-.900 OPS bat that is an all star caliber player. We aren’t talking about him getting starting opportunities though, we are talking about him filling a bench role. Really quick too, for everyone clamoring for Cooper over Wisdom as a no brainer. Cooper as a pinch hitter in 2023: .214/.214/.429. In his career: .205/.340/.308. In the same way that I’m not arguing for Wisdom as a starter I’m not arguing against Cooper getting a roster spot with that slash line. Instead it’s a reminder for us all just how difficult pinch hitting is. We’ve all heard this time and time again from both coaches and players, it’s perhaps the most difficult call to answer off the bench and is why there are no real examples of players who consistently thrive at it. Instead identify what we want from each individual bench role and find the right fit. Wisdom makes a lot more sense in this role than many are willing to give him credit for. I would probably envision Cooper and Wisdom primarily in the DH spot (or the DH-position-merry-go-round).
If Canario or Mervis is smashing at AAA and May comes in and neither Cooper or Wisdom are performing, then I'd envision one of them being cut and Canario/Mervis coming up to fill the DH role. Mervis probably has a leg up here, because he's left-handed and could platoon with which ever one stays.
Wisdom to me still has more upside because of his position versatility and likely higher power profile than Cooper. But Cooper is performing at a high level right now in spring training, but I sort of expect this to be a "never read too much into offensive performance in spring training" moment, but might be worth the minimal risk to see if I'm wrong.
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Post by fine09 on Mar 18, 2024 11:59:45 GMT -5
I would say that Mastrobuoni is the only real lock for one of the three remaining bench spots. He's your Zobrist. He can play every where but the offense isn't so great that he HAS to be in the lineup everyday. He would also be the third catcher, I'd imagine. I don't know if any of the other players on the roster have any minor, college, or high school experience at catcher. I think Wisdom is probably next... unless he opens the season on the IL. Then beyond that, I think Cooper has the slight edge for the third spot. His 40 man spot being gained through Kilian to the 60 day IL. Smith would be next, although another 40 man move would have to be made. If Happ starts the season on the IL then that would be his most likely path to the opening day roster. Canario, might be the most deserving of a spot, but I suspect they would rather kick the can further down the road with the veterans listed above him. Peralta could be in there between Cooper and Smith, but he hasn't had enough at-bats. (I'm also assuming that Cooper, Smith, and Peralta have opt-outs in their contracts if they aren't on the opening day roster. They could all be sent to the minors if they don't opt-out. But generally veterans like this have an opt-out by a certain date and they don't accept a minor league assignment) Wisdom may not have a long leash this year, I can really see his roster spot being taken by Vazquez. Depending on how Morel fares offensively and defensively at third base. Canario could also see significant time in the majors. As could Mervis. A lot of this is going to depend on what you get out of the DH spot and how well Canario, Mervis, and even PCA perform at AAA. Cooper, Wisdom, and Tauchman (potentially Smith) would all see time at DH or in a DH-position-merry-go-round. If they don't perform and Canario/Mervis are performing at AAA, they could be up in the majors soon. Neither Canario or Mervis are really players you want to rot on the bench. If they are up, then you want them playing at least semi-regularly. I don't think just because you make the opening day roster means you're going to be with the team all season or even most of the season. To add guys to the 40 man you'll have to remove ones on it which may cause you to lose them to other clubs. I don't think Dom makes the team because of that..
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Post by kfidd on Mar 18, 2024 12:09:02 GMT -5
The Cubs could have those higher contact guys thought already in Tauchman and Mastrobuoni. You aren’t looking for them to slug the ball and drive in runs, you are looking for them to put the ball and play, get on base, and hope the next guy can bring them home. A variety of offerings off the bench is a good thing.
I’m all for Vazquez getting a bench role, I think he’s perfect for that infield defense specialist slot. I wouldn’t viewed him as a potentially contact guy though, he had a 26.6% K rate across AA-AAA last year. I’d still love him for a spot though because again, I value specialized roles. Slaughter is an interesting one. I understand he is a versatile player but I don’t know anything about how he handles those various positions. Is he a pretty capable glove? I would have questions though about his higher K rate in the minors and then expecting him to fill a bench role right away. I always expect young players to come up and struggle, needing a lot of time to adjust their games accordingly. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of promoting young players into regular roles. Get them that consistent daily playing time so they can actually learn through repetition, not further complicate matters for them with the alternative.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 18, 2024 12:28:01 GMT -5
The Cubs could have those higher contact guys thought already in Tauchman and Mastrobuoni. You aren’t looking for them to slug the ball and drive in runs, you are looking for them to put the ball and play, get on base, and hope the next guy can bring them home. A variety of offerings off the bench is a good thing. I’m all for Vazquez getting a bench role, I think he’s perfect for that infield defense specialist slot. I wouldn’t viewed him as a potentially contact guy though, he had a 26.6% K rate across AA-AAA last year. I’d still love him for a spot though because again, I value specialized roles. Slaughter is an interesting one. I understand he is a versatile player but I don’t know anything about how he handles those various positions. Is he a pretty capable glove? I would have questions though about his higher K rate in the minors and then expecting him to fill a bench role right away. I always expect young players to come up and struggle, needing a lot of time to adjust their games accordingly. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of promoting young players into regular roles. Get them that consistent daily playing time so they can actually learn through repetition, not further complicate matters for them with the alternative. Since guys like Vazquez and Slaughter's major league careers if they have one , point to being a bench player they have to get that shot at some point. I can see a guy like Canario who has a chance to be an everyday player being better off not sitting on the bench and playing every day in AAA , but guys like Vazquez and Slaughter are going to be bench players anyway.
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Post by cfin on Mar 18, 2024 12:41:18 GMT -5
I always expect young players to come up and struggle, needing a lot of time to adjust their games accordingly. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of promoting young players into regular roles. Get them that consistent daily playing time so they can actually learn through repetition, not further complicate matters for them with the alternative. I agree here. If Canario and Mervis are up, I'd like to see them playing regularly if not everyday. Perhaps in some type of platoon at DH. I really would have thought Mervis would have an inside track for being the left-handed portion of the DH spot, but he's already been assigned to minor league camp. But by the same token, I can't imagine he will be down there long if he performs at AAA and Cooper/Wisdom don't do anything exciting in the DH spot. Canario, I'd actually like better in LF over Happ - but I've never been a huge Happ guy. I wouldn't be shocked if you see Mervis and Canario platooning at DH for most of the season, with Tauchman or Davis as the 4th outfielder and Mastrobuoni or Vazquez being the backup infielder.
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Post by cfin on Mar 18, 2024 12:44:34 GMT -5
The Cubs could have those higher contact guys thought already in Tauchman and Mastrobuoni. You aren’t looking for them to slug the ball and drive in runs, you are looking for them to put the ball and play, get on base, and hope the next guy can bring them home. A variety of offerings off the bench is a good thing. I’m all for Vazquez getting a bench role, I think he’s perfect for that infield defense specialist slot. I wouldn’t viewed him as a potentially contact guy though, he had a 26.6% K rate across AA-AAA last year. I’d still love him for a spot though because again, I value specialized roles. Slaughter is an interesting one. I understand he is a versatile player but I don’t know anything about how he handles those various positions. Is he a pretty capable glove? I would have questions though about his higher K rate in the minors and then expecting him to fill a bench role right away. I always expect young players to come up and struggle, needing a lot of time to adjust their games accordingly. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of promoting young players into regular roles. Get them that consistent daily playing time so they can actually learn through repetition, not further complicate matters for them with the alternative. Since guys like Vazquez and Slaughter's major league careers if they have one , point to being a bench player they have to get that shot at some point. I can see a guy like Canario who has a chance to be an everyday player being better off not sitting on the bench and playing every day in AAA , but guys like Vazquez and Slaughter are going to be bench players anyway. I agree.
Vazquez could have a very outside shot at being a major league regular. More than likely he's a bench guy and I have no issues viewing him as such. If he makes his way as an MLB regular it's going to be because he impresses off the major league bench and not as a top prospect.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 18, 2024 12:48:26 GMT -5
I always expect young players to come up and struggle, needing a lot of time to adjust their games accordingly. That’s why I’m a much bigger fan of promoting young players into regular roles. Get them that consistent daily playing time so they can actually learn through repetition, not further complicate matters for them with the alternative. I agree here. If Canario and Mervis are up, I'd like to see them playing regularly if not everyday. Perhaps in some type of platoon at DH. I really would have thought Mervis would have an inside track for being the left-handed portion of the DH spot, but he's already been assigned to minor league camp. But by the same token, I can't imagine he will be down there long if he performs at AAA and Cooper/Wisdom don't do anything exciting in the DH spot. Canario, I'd actually like better in LF over Happ - but I've never been a huge Happ guy. I wouldn't be shocked if you see Mervis and Canario platooning at DH for most of the season, with Tauchman or Davis as the 4th outfielder and Mastrobuoni or Vazquez being the backup infielder. at some point PCA is going to be up which likely moves Belli to 1B and Busch to DH . I really don't see Mervis getting another chance with the Cubs , I want him to , but unless Busch is a total bust I don't see Mervis getting that chance.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Mar 18, 2024 12:49:23 GMT -5
Bote's name should be added to the mix. He's more versatile defensively than many of the others being named.
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Post by cfin on Mar 18, 2024 13:01:56 GMT -5
I agree here. If Canario and Mervis are up, I'd like to see them playing regularly if not everyday. Perhaps in some type of platoon at DH. I really would have thought Mervis would have an inside track for being the left-handed portion of the DH spot, but he's already been assigned to minor league camp. But by the same token, I can't imagine he will be down there long if he performs at AAA and Cooper/Wisdom don't do anything exciting in the DH spot. Canario, I'd actually like better in LF over Happ - but I've never been a huge Happ guy. I wouldn't be shocked if you see Mervis and Canario platooning at DH for most of the season, with Tauchman or Davis as the 4th outfielder and Mastrobuoni or Vazquez being the backup infielder. at some point PCA is going to be up which likely moves Belli to 1B and Busch to DH . I really don't see Mervis getting another chance with the Cubs , I want him to , but unless Busch is a total bust I don't see Mervis getting that chance. I figure PCA will be down in AAA until at least the All-Star break.
I figure Cooper and/or Wisdom will collapse well before then and that will be the opportunity for Mervis and/or Canario.
If neither of them grab the DH opportunity and if Busch is performing and PCA is performing at AAA, then the move for PCA to CF and Bellinger to 1B and Busch to the DH would be made.
You could very well be right that the Cubs front office just doesn't see Mervis making it, but I'd like to see him get another chance and that's how I see that chance happening.
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Post by rvn11 on Mar 18, 2024 13:39:41 GMT -5
Bote's name should be added to the mix. He's more versatile defensively than many of the others being named. Based on ST performance thus far, probably. But he's not on the 40 man roster and would make things even further complicated to keep. We've also seen streaks from Bote before. When he's on he's great, but the dips are pretty deep.
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Post by fine09 on Mar 18, 2024 14:13:00 GMT -5
at some point PCA is going to be up which likely moves Belli to 1B and Busch to DH . I really don't see Mervis getting another chance with the Cubs , I want him to , but unless Busch is a total bust I don't see Mervis getting that chance. I figure PCA will be down in AAA until at least the All-Star break.
I figure Cooper and/or Wisdom will collapse well before then and that will be the opportunity for Mervis and/or Canario.
If neither of them grab the DH opportunity and if Busch is performing and PCA is performing at AAA, then the move for PCA to CF and Bellinger to 1B and Busch to the DH would be made.
You could very well be right that the Cubs front office just doesn't see Mervis making it, but I'd like to see him get another chance and that's how I see that chance happening.
I believe if Cooper does break camp with the Cubs he stays because I think he's going to have a very good year. I still can't believe he signed with the Cubs for ST.
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Post by TheChico on Mar 18, 2024 14:32:18 GMT -5
I figure PCA will be down in AAA until at least the All-Star break.
I figure Cooper and/or Wisdom will collapse well before then and that will be the opportunity for Mervis and/or Canario.
If neither of them grab the DH opportunity and if Busch is performing and PCA is performing at AAA, then the move for PCA to CF and Bellinger to 1B and Busch to the DH would be made.
You could very well be right that the Cubs front office just doesn't see Mervis making it, but I'd like to see him get another chance and that's how I see that chance happening.
I believe if Cooper does break camp with the Cubs he stays because I think he's going to have a very good year. I still can't believe he signed with the Cubs for ST. I am assuming Cooper will make the opening day roster since he can crush lefties which is a big need for this team. the Cubs don't even have to DFA or trade anybody, they simply can just put Killian on the 60 day too
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Post by fine09 on Mar 18, 2024 14:34:53 GMT -5
I believe if Cooper does break camp with the Cubs he stays because I think he's going to have a very good year. I still can't believe he signed with the Cubs for ST. I am assuming Cooper will make the opening day roster since he can crush lefties which is a big need for this team. the Cubs don't even have to DFA or trade anybody, they simply can just put Killian on the 60 day too Exactly for just Cooper but they would have to make corresponding cuts to add anyone else like Smith - Edwards - Bote - Slaughter, etc. that some are discussing.
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Post by TheChico on Mar 18, 2024 14:42:48 GMT -5
26 man roster prediction:
Position players:
1. Hoerner 2B 2. Suzuki RF (counsel confirmed he will bat 2nd) 3. Happ LF 4. Bellinger CF 5. Swanson SS 6. Busch 1B 7. Morel 3B 8. Gomes C 9 Tauchman 10. Amaya 11. Mastroboni 12. Cooper 13. Canario
IL:
Madrigal Wisdom
---------------
Pitching:
Rotation:
Steele Imanaga Hendricks Wicks Assad
Bullpen:
Smyly Leiter Merryweather Neris Almonte Alzolay Cuas Little
IL:
Taillon
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Post by batman66 on Mar 18, 2024 16:24:41 GMT -5
Bote's name should be added to the mix. He's more versatile defensively than many of the others being named. I don't think he has any chance of making the team and I think he was getting a lot of spring training playing time in hopes a team would give them a call about him so the Cubs could atleast unload a little bit of his salary (probably would have to pay some to most of it ) but when they are so close to the luxury tax deducting any little bit could help.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 18, 2024 16:25:44 GMT -5
26 man roster prediction: Position players: 1. Hoerner 2B 2. Suzuki RF (counsel confirmed he will bat 2nd) 3. Happ LF 4. Bellinger CF 5. Swanson SS 6. Busch 1B 7. Morel 3B 8. Gomes C 9 Tauchman 10. Amaya 11. Mastroboni 12. Cooper 13. Canario IL: Madrigal Wisdom --------------- Pitching: Rotation: Steele Imanaga Hendricks Wicks Assad Bullpen: Smyly Leiter Merryweather Neris Almonte Alzolay Cuas Little IL: Taillon Looks about what I expect
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Post by bryzzobrist on Mar 18, 2024 16:39:27 GMT -5
If Suzu bats 2nd, I'd hope he steals more bags this season
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Post by kfidd on Mar 18, 2024 16:47:11 GMT -5
If Suzu bats 2nd, I'd hope he steals more bags this season I might need to recalibrate on this a bit but my initial reaction is that’s a bad idea. I feel like we’ve seen him not be a particularly good base stealer. Does he get poor reads or jumps on the pitcher? Is he not a strong sprinter? I don’t know but right now I don’t feel like him attempting more steals is a great idea. Instead I want all his emphasis on swinging away and driving the ball, and when you’re on base ahead of Bellinger let him do this thing and don’t give away free outs on the base paths. I do feel like we are primed for a Happ > Suzuki > Bellinger lineup to at least start the season and I’m very excited for that as I love that composition. Edit: just looked it up and Seiya just hasn’t performed as a strong base stealer up to this point. Last season he was 6/13 in stolen base attempts and featured 79th percentile sprint speed.
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