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Post by okeecub on Mar 6, 2024 22:11:49 GMT -5
I guess no one is willing to discuss struggles as a 22 year old. Let’s just say I’m giving up on a prospect. I’m done for the day. This is dumb, can’t be critical of Cubs anymore. This board is soft nobody is really concerned yet. yes he's struggling, but he's only had small sample size of MLB pitching. isn't that PCA's thing, struggle at first and then tears cover off the ball after he settles in? nobody has said you can't be critical. also, he hasn't had constant playing time either. which could contribute to struggles I certainly agree it’s way too soon to give up on PCA but can’t help but remember an eerily similar narrative on Mervis last year, struggles early then mashes. This year he’s almost looked at like spoiled meat. I wonder what we’ll think of PCA next year this time. I get the different pedigree and scouting evaluations but can’t help but see the irony. I hope both turn into what we all hoped for, only time will tell
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 7, 2024 8:49:40 GMT -5
I mean, lets not compare what Happ did at 22 as a rookie.
Like I said, not giving up on PCA at all, but it would be nice to see some success vs MLB pitchers. I don't care if he's hitting .190 as a very young player, but how about more than just 3 doubles? He's not even lucking in to a HR. It's not far fetched to expect more considering he hit 20 HR, 26 doubles and 7 triples last year between AA-AAA.
No one is calling him a bust or saying to give up on him, but I have concerns based on what my eyes are seeing. But hey, it's 30 at bats, no biggie.
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Post by rvn11 on Mar 7, 2024 9:15:40 GMT -5
I don't disagree. There's a bit of the eye test that he's not passing at the moment. That said I don't get to see all of his at bats, so maybe I'm just catching the bad ones. Would be nice to start seeing the bat flash against top opponents.
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Post by kfidd on Mar 7, 2024 10:03:57 GMT -5
More than one thing can be true at once. He hasn’t looked great at the plate so far in what is now 22 plate appearances. He’s had by my count 3 hard hit balls that could have fallen in for hits but didn’t. He’s also had a lot of strike outs (31.8%) and some mishaps on the basepaths. My opinion of PCA is that he’s too much energizer bunny out there. He looks like he’s trying to do too much 110% of the time, and that’s consistent with a lot of his scouting reports. He needs to learn to slow the game down a bit and take it one step at a time. Instead we have things like him reaching first base and immediately getting picked off like yesterday.
But it can be true that he’s not playing crisp right now and also that there is nothing to be concerned about. Why? Because A) it’s spring training and B) it’s 22 plate appearances. It’s not even just about the batting average that I shared yesterday, it’s the sample size is so small just two at bats could have resulted differently and we’d be saying he looks pretty darn good right now. Two strikeouts turned into hard hit balls, that’s the margin for error right now. It’s nonsense to be concerned about his performance at this time. He’s a just turned 22 year old kid who is known for his high energy style of play and also knows he’s on the cusp of the majors. Could he be pressing in his first ever real spring training look?
Again, more than one thing can be true at the same time. He hasn’t played good baseball over the last two intermittent weeks. It’s fine. If we are a month or two into the season and he’s struggling at Iowa, maybe we bust out the magnifying glass a bit. But even there’s he’s had 155 PA total at that level. Kids go through adjustments as they face stiffer competition. And the best thing of all? He can take his time with his development if they decide he needs it because the Cubs signed Bellinger and seemingly have already committed to Busch sticking at first base. There is nothing to rush with PCA.
Remember where this all began. Not acknowledging that he hadn’t looked great thus far (which nobody has disagreed with), but that people could possibly be concerned over his play at this point. That’s the discussion point and frankly again, this is how baseball works. Kids struggle as they adjust and adapt. Twenty two spring training plate appearances.
This is a complete nothingburger at this time.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 7, 2024 10:17:18 GMT -5
nobody is really concerned yet. yes he's struggling, but he's only had small sample size of MLB pitching. isn't that PCA's thing, struggle at first and then tears cover off the ball after he settles in? nobody has said you can't be critical. also, he hasn't had constant playing time either. which could contribute to struggles I certainly agree it’s way too soon to give up on PCA but can’t help but remember an eerily similar narrative on Mervis last year, struggles early then mashes. This year he’s almost looked at like spoiled meat. I wonder what we’ll think of PCA next year this time. I get the different pedigree and scouting evaluations but can’t help but see the irony. I hope both turn into what we all hoped for, only time will tell There should be no "give up" talk this is insanely ridiculous already. It's 30 some at bats , there is no irony , if you take a lot of players first 30-50-100 at bats you will see plenty of them not looking good. Mervis had 99 and that's not nearly enough , PCA has a total of 14 and 24 this spring , give the kid some time , he's 21 years old , Not every 21 year old top prospect hits like a champ from the get go , and again even if we are talking 234 at bats and not 34 , that still would not be time to give up on a top prospect who has many other skills even if he's a mediocre major league hitter.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 7, 2024 10:27:50 GMT -5
I mean, lets not compare what Happ did at 22 as a rookie. Like I said, not giving up on PCA at all, but it would be nice to see some success vs MLB pitchers. I don't care if he's hitting .190 as a very young player, but how about more than just 3 doubles? He's not even lucking in to a HR. It's not far fetched to expect more considering he hit 20 HR, 26 doubles and 7 triples last year between AA-AAA. No one is calling him a bust or saying to give up on him, but I have concerns based on what my eyes are seeing. But hey, it's 30 at bats, no biggie. How about more than just 3 doubles , yes please , but PCA is really not alone. Can't believe somebody is having issues with 3 doubles in 22 at bats and seeing that as a big red flag 22 at bats 3 doubles 0 homers PCA 22 at bats 3 doubles 1 homer Caissie 17 at bats 2 doubles 1 homer Morel 16 at bats 1 double 1 homer Tauchman 21 at bats 2 doubles 0 homers Shaw 17 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Vazquez 16 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Hoerner 12 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Swanson
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Post by fine09 on Mar 7, 2024 10:45:25 GMT -5
I certainly agree it’s way too soon to give up on PCA but can’t help but remember an eerily similar narrative on Mervis last year, struggles early then mashes. This year he’s almost looked at like spoiled meat. I wonder what we’ll think of PCA next year this time. I get the different pedigree and scouting evaluations but can’t help but see the irony. I hope both turn into what we all hoped for, only time will tell There should be no "give up" talk this is insanely ridiculous already. It's 30 some at bats , there is no irony , if you take a lot of players first 30-50-100 at bats you will see plenty of them not looking good. Mervis had 99 and that's not nearly enough , PCA has a total of 14 and 24 this spring , give the kid some time , he's 21 years old , Not every 21 year old top prospect hits like a champ from the get go , and again even if we are talking 234 at bats and not 34 , that still would not be time to give up on a top prospect who has many other skills even if he's a mediocre major league hitter. Also to be kept in mind is that PCA was the 19th. pick in the 2020 draft BEFORE he broke out with his bat being considered as powerful, that came after his injury with the Mets or we never would have gotten him for Javy & Williams at the deadline. This kid is worth more than 15 mil. a year if he hits .200 just with his D & baserunning. He is going to be just fine no matter what & he might be something very special but we are going to have to wait a bit to find out..
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Post by cfin on Mar 7, 2024 11:15:16 GMT -5
More than one thing can be true at once. He hasn’t looked great at the plate so far in what is now 22 plate appearances. He’s had by my count 3 hard hit balls that could have fallen in for hits but didn’t. He’s also had a lot of strike outs (31.8%) and some mishaps on the basepaths. My opinion of PCA is that he’s too much energizer bunny out there. He looks like he’s trying to do too much 110% of the time, and that’s consistent with a lot of his scouting reports. He needs to learn to slow the game down a bit and take it one step at a time. Instead we have things like him reaching first base and immediately getting picked off like yesterday. But it can be true that he’s not playing crisp right now and also that there is nothing to be concerned about. Why? Because A) it’s spring training and B) it’s 22 plate appearances. It’s not even just about the batting average that I shared yesterday, it’s the sample size is so small just two at bats could have resulted differently and we’d be saying he looks pretty darn good right now. Two strikeouts turned into hard hit balls, that’s the margin for error right now. It’s nonsense to be concerned about his performance at this time. He’s a just turned 22 year old kid who is known for his high energy style of play and also knows he’s on the cusp of the majors. Could he be pressing in his first ever real spring training look? Again, more than one thing can be true at the same time. He hasn’t played good baseball over the last two intermittent weeks. It’s fine. If we are a month or two into the season and he’s struggling at Iowa, maybe we bust out the magnifying glass a bit. But even there’s he’s had 155 PA total at that level. Kids go through adjustments as they face stiffer competition. And the best thing of all? He can take his time with his development if they decide he needs it because the Cubs signed Bellinger and seemingly have already committed to Busch sticking at first base. There is nothing to rush with PCA. Remember where this all began. Not acknowledging that he hadn’t looked great thus far (which nobody has disagreed with), but that people could possibly be concerned over his play at this point. That’s the discussion point and frankly again, this is how baseball works. Kids struggle as they adjust and adapt. Twenty two spring training plate appearances. This is a complete nothingburger at this time. I'm not ready to label PCA a bust, nor am I suggesting that he should be at this point.
Certainly the spring training at-bats don't really mean anything, although it would be better if he was performing better.
My concern with him is that if he goes to AAA and struggles there, then some of the luster will have worn off on him. Still doesn't mean he's a bust. But the hype surrounding him at this point last year will be a distant memory.
And this kind of underscores what I've said about prospect rankings. Rankings don't mean a lot if you can't perform at the major league level.
At this time last year, the Cubs and every other team in MLB could look at PCA and dream about the potential he had. He didn't really do anything to temper those dreams, until he came up last year. I definitely don't want to hold his few PAs last year against him, but he didn't get a hit (although, the eye test last year, he didn't look over matched to me). He's not looked great in spring training (which again you can't really hold against him). But the pressure is on to go to AAA and return to that high level performance. If his brief time in MLB last year exposed something that AAA pitchers can exploit and he can't make the adjustment... that's where the lust will wear off on him.
Does he make that adjustment and go back to high performing? That's certainly possible.
But when I speak of the luster he had as a prospect, I compare that in terms of trade value. You probably could have gotten a king's ransom for him at last year's trade deadline. If he doesn't perform at AAA this year... that trade value is going to dip significantly. And that goes back to, were the Cubs better off giving Bellinger his big contract demand and trading PCA while is value was high? The other side of it, though, who would you have traded PCA for? I would have liked a cost controllable 3B piece, but I don't think any were available in a trade.
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Post by cfin on Mar 7, 2024 11:32:28 GMT -5
I mean, lets not compare what Happ did at 22 as a rookie. Like I said, not giving up on PCA at all, but it would be nice to see some success vs MLB pitchers. I don't care if he's hitting .190 as a very young player, but how about more than just 3 doubles? He's not even lucking in to a HR. It's not far fetched to expect more considering he hit 20 HR, 26 doubles and 7 triples last year between AA-AAA. No one is calling him a bust or saying to give up on him, but I have concerns based on what my eyes are seeing. But hey, it's 30 at bats, no biggie. How about more than just 3 doubles , yes please , but PCA is really not alone. Can't believe somebody is having issues with 3 doubles in 22 at bats and seeing that as a big red flag 22 at bats 3 doubles 0 homers PCA 22 at bats 3 doubles 1 homer Caissie 17 at bats 2 doubles 1 homer Morel 16 at bats 1 double 1 homer Tauchman 21 at bats 2 doubles 0 homers Shaw 17 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Vazquez 16 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Hoerner 12 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Swanson Well, Hoerner and Swanson have had success at the major league level, I would read absolutely zero into their spring training stats.
Tauchman and Morel, they too have had success if not really the track record that Hoerner and Swanson have had. They are locks to make the roster anyway.
Vazquez, I like him for a roster spot for his defense. I think he could be a dark horse candidate to nail down the 3B spot long term (longish term anyway), but he's never really profiled as a major league starter (doesn't mean he can't be one though). He was always a long shot to make the roster out of spring training anyway. I think his opportunity comes more during the season.
Shaw and Caissie they were never going to make the roster anyway, so it really doesn't matter how they perform.
I really don't think PCA ever had a shot at making the opening day roster, but there were at least whispers that he might
Better performance is always better than poor performance, even in spring training. But I just don't read too much into spring training performances. But I also haven't seen a lot from PCA that tells me he should break camp with the big league club.
Of this list, the two players I see that would be potentially battling for an opening day roster spot are PCA and Vazquez. If Vazquez makes the roster, he's going to be a bench player. I think everyone is alright with that. If PCA makes the roster, nobody wants him to rot on the bench. There's a distinction between what role a player will have on the roster and whether or not it is good for them to break camp on the opening day roster.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 7, 2024 11:49:37 GMT -5
How about more than just 3 doubles , yes please , but PCA is really not alone. Can't believe somebody is having issues with 3 doubles in 22 at bats and seeing that as a big red flag 22 at bats 3 doubles 0 homers PCA 22 at bats 3 doubles 1 homer Caissie 17 at bats 2 doubles 1 homer Morel 16 at bats 1 double 1 homer Tauchman 21 at bats 2 doubles 0 homers Shaw 17 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Vazquez 16 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Hoerner 12 at bats 0 doubles 0 homers Swanson Well, Hoerner and Swanson have had success at the major league level, I would read absolutely zero into their spring training stats.
Tauchman and Morel, they too have had success if not really the track record that Hoerner and Swanson have had. They are locks to make the roster anyway.
Vazquez, I like him for a roster spot for his defense. I think he could be a dark horse candidate to nail down the 3B spot long term (longish term anyway), but he's never really profiled as a major league starter (doesn't mean he can't be one though). He was always a long shot to make the roster out of spring training anyway. I think his opportunity comes more during the season.
Shaw and Caissie they were never going to make the roster anyway, so it really doesn't matter how they perform.
I really don't think PCA ever had a shot at making the opening day roster, but there were at least whispers that he might
Better performance is always better than poor performance, even in spring training. But I just don't read too much into spring training performances. But I also haven't seen a lot from PCA that tells me he should break camp with the big league club.
Of this list, the two players I see that would be potentially battling for an opening day roster spot are PCA and Vazquez. If Vazquez makes the roster, he's going to be a bench player. I think everyone is alright with that. If PCA makes the roster, nobody wants him to rot on the bench. There's a distinction between what role a player will have on the roster and whether or not it is good for them to break camp on the opening day roster.
Point is just 3 doubles in 22 at bats is nothing to freak over and it's not standing out as unusual weak production right now when most of the players are right here or only slightly more productive. 22 pa's is nowhere near anything close to a sample size to judge a guy on ever, spring traing or not. I'm not saying PCA should make the team out of ST . I don't think he has any chance to after Bellinger signed and Counsell oddly announced Tauchman was a lock to make the 26 man. I think all along they went into this ST with the vision PCA to would get a month or two more in AAA but if he had a terrific spring it could have changed their minds and he could have forced the issue. I'm just flabbergasted people are worried over 22 at bats .
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Post by kfidd on Mar 7, 2024 11:57:16 GMT -5
If they felt they had a great opportunity to trade PCA I’d have been all for them doing so, but I’m not a prospect hugger to begin with and don’t believe we have any truly untouchables in our system today anyways. But the point of all of this is that whatever talent we believe PCA has inside him shouldn’t be swayed by his 22 spring training plate appearances thus far in the same way it shouldn’t if he were instead batting .350 with an OPS over 1.000. Why? Because the different between these two performances is a measly 4 at bats that end in better results. Don’t believe me?
Current: .182/.250/.318/.568
Turn 4 outs into 2 singles and 2 doubles and you get: .333/.401/.591/.992
Are we really going to start raising red flags and the alarms over the results of 4 swings? This is not directed at anyone in particular here as we have a lot chiming in, but just in general.
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Post by okeecub on Mar 7, 2024 12:17:03 GMT -5
I certainly agree it’s way too soon to give up on PCA but can’t help but remember an eerily similar narrative on Mervis last year, struggles early then mashes. This year he’s almost looked at like spoiled meat. I wonder what we’ll think of PCA next year this time. I get the different pedigree and scouting evaluations but can’t help but see the irony. I hope both turn into what we all hoped for, only time will tell There should be no "give up" talk this is insanely ridiculous already. It's 30 some at bats , there is no irony , if you take a lot of players first 30-50-100 at bats you will see plenty of them not looking good. Mervis had 99 and that's not nearly enough , PCA has a total of 14 and 24 this spring , give the kid some time , he's 21 years old , Not every 21 year old top prospect hits like a champ from the get go , and again even if we are talking 234 at bats and not 34 , that still would not be time to give up on a top prospect who has many other skills even if he's a mediocre major league hitter. as I said way too soon to give up on anyone at this time my comment was simply to point out the similarities of the narrative on those two a year apart and how quickly some have changed on one or the other, when in fact neither have provided nearly a large enough sample size to make any kind of realistic evaluation. Again hoping both turn into productive members of our team
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Post by skokiejoe on Mar 7, 2024 12:24:35 GMT -5
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Post by kfidd on Mar 7, 2024 12:34:40 GMT -5
Should be a fun experience. Glad they are doing this.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Mar 7, 2024 12:49:34 GMT -5
Nobody is freaking out.... why do posters always have to go to the extreme when there's concern from a poster?
PCA looks over matched IMO of course that can change. I guess my disappointment is that I thought he'd look better and make it hard on the Cubs to send him to AAA, regardless if that was the plan or not. Plans always change. The question is, how over matched is PCA? He was a September call up in 2023. In my eyes he shouldn't be another September call up in 2024. IMO he should start establishing himself in 2024 to be the full time starter in 2025. I hope he does.
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Post by rvn11 on Mar 7, 2024 12:53:27 GMT -5
First time I've read Ed Howard's name in a long while.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 7, 2024 12:55:24 GMT -5
If they felt they had a great opportunity to trade PCA I’d have been all for them doing so, but I’m not a prospect hugger to begin with and don’t believe we have any truly untouchables in our system today anyways. But the point of all of this is that whatever talent we believe PCA has inside him shouldn’t be swayed by his 22 spring training plate appearances thus far in the same way it shouldn’t if he were instead batting .350 with an OPS over 1.000. Why? Because the different between these two performances is a measly 4 at bats that end in better results. Don’t believe me? Current: .182/.250/.318/.568 Turn 4 outs into 2 singles and 2 doubles and you get: .333/.401/.591/.992 Are we really going to start raising red flags and the alarms over the results of 4 swings? This is not directed at anyone in particular here as we have a lot chiming in, but just in general. Thanks, pretty much what I was trying to say yesterday, all it takes is a good game with this sample size to make a bad looking spring into a good one. Crazy we are even doing this over 22 at bats. I get it , he hasn't looked good, and it's fine to be critical and or worry but I don't get it over such a small sample size and then start comparing him to another guy like Mervis who had 99 at bats , which still is even nowhere near enough to judge a player on. personally in about year 2-3 with hundreds of at bats , that's when I start to worry. If I worry over 22 I'm going to age even faster , and that's not a process I'd like to participate in.
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Post by batman66 on Mar 7, 2024 12:59:13 GMT -5
Nobody is freaking out.... why do posters always have to go to the extreme when there's concern from a poster? PCA looks over matched IMO of course that can change. I guess my disappointment is that I thought he'd look better and make it hard on the Cubs to send him to AAA, regardless if that was the plan or not. Plans always change. The question is, how over matched is PCA? He was a September call up in 2023. In my eyes he shouldn't be another September call up in 2024. IMO he should start establishing himself in 2024 to be the full time starter in 2025. I hope he does. We all were hoping for the same , but my entire point , it's not enough of a sample size right now to even start to worry. I would be disappointed if we don't see him until September, that would either mean two or both things, he's not doing well or the Cubs are and don't need him. I would think he's up before the ASB though.
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Post by TheChico on Mar 7, 2024 13:30:55 GMT -5
MRI on Nick Madrigal shows a shocking discovery, a mild Hamstring strain and not sure if he will miss opening day or not and will know more in the next week or so.
Caleb Kilian has a strained Teres Major (shoulder), will likely be out until All-star break which stinks, he looked impressive this spring.
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Post by skokiejoe on Mar 7, 2024 13:47:59 GMT -5
MRI on Nick Madrigal shows a shocking discovery, a mild Hamstring strain and not sure if he will miss opening day or not and will know more in the next week or so. Caleb Kilian has a strained Teres Major (shoulder), will likely be out until All-star break which stinks, he looked impressive this spring. Teres Major injuries usually require a complete shutdown of 3 month + 4-6 week to be ready. I would bet August 1st is more likely. This does open up a spot on the 40 man roster. Kilian will be placed on the 60 day IL. Madrigal mild hamstring strain: That is usually 3-4 weeks + 2-3 week to get ready to play. May 1st is my guess. Madrigal will be on the IL to start the season and may spend some time in Iowa when he is physically ready.
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