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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 11:01:30 GMT -5
Man I really hope that is not the case.. I am ready for a Morel full time situation with Busch as a 2 day per week “tiny platoon” which lets Cody play first a bit. I cannot see them taking the QO penalty on Chapman even with his good glove but a bat that is “iffy” at this point. Hell, if they want to spend 20-25 mil a year on someone I’m wanting Montgomery on a 4-5 year deal without a NTC just in case and no QO penalties Yeah, I don’t buy this at all. The draft pick compensation is the kicker. Without it if I squint hard enough with my Cubs Homer hat on I can dance my way into liking it, but it’s irrelevant. There is not fit here, it is a far better use of resources to give Morel all the run he needs at the position. If they wanted to blow a QO pick on someone it should be Snell over Chapman but that’s not happening either and the stability Montgomery would provide is far more valuable in my eyes. Doubt we sign any of them though. I think Snell will be way too much $$ but yes probably better overall than Montgomery but a great starter that never gets in to the 6th inning is not great..
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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 11:02:57 GMT -5
Rays were trying to sell high on Paredes with the outperform metrics. He plays passable 3B, but I don't know how the money would work. He’d have to take a spot on the 40 man too wouldn’t he so that won’t work either.
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Post by kfidd on Feb 27, 2024 11:21:47 GMT -5
I don’t really get this idea about Montgomery not going deep enough into games. Baseball has changed in a big way regarding how deep starting pitches are expected to go.
Average innings pitched per start 2022/2023
Steele: 4.95/5.76 Taillon: 5.53/5.31 Montgomery: 5.56/5.88 Snell: 5.33/5.62
Montgomery has averaged more innings per start these last two seasons than either our ace or current dismal #2 have averaged, as well as beating our Snell in that regard. Steele and Snell have him beat in the number of times they go into the 7th, but that also means they are leaving games earlier more often.
It’s all moot because he isn’t likely coming here but there are a lot of weird narratives out there about Montgomery that just aren’t true. He’s very consistent and has been a rock these last three seasons. Would you want him as your ace over Steele? No, but you wouldn’t sign him to be that. There are only two handfuls of starting pitchers who have outperformed him since 2021 but he doesn’t pile up strikeouts so he doesn’t get the attention.
People are ready to defend Taillon as our number two because he had a strong second half so he’ll no doubt continue that pace but Montgomery who has outperformed him three years running (and that includes a second half last season where he also outperformed Taillon’s line) has this weird false narrative around him. Do people not like him because he was a Cardinal? Just weird.
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Post by kfidd on Feb 27, 2024 11:38:49 GMT -5
I’m bored and curious so I looked it up. The following are the times each respective starting pitcher ended an outing in X inning in 2023.
Steele 3: 3 4: 5: 5 6: 18 7: 3 8: 1 9:
Montgomery 3: 1 4: 3 5: 7 6: 15 7: 5 8: 1 9:
Stuck with these two because I’m lazy and I feel this serves the point. All off-season in these boards I’ve read one of the marks on Montgomery is he doesn’t go deep into games enough. Yet here he is compared to our ace.
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Post by cfin on Feb 27, 2024 11:43:01 GMT -5
If the Cubs want to add a starting pitcher, I'd go back to Cleveland and look at Bieber - but I wouldn't give up a lot for him, because he's just a one year rental. But the money will also put the Cubs.
The only sizeable contract the Cubs could move would be Smyly. Unless the Cubs are entertaining moving Taillon, Hendricks, Happ, or Suzuki.
If the Cubs are willing to go over the CBT, then I'd revisit the Bieber and Clase talk (I think that talk was just forum speculation though). Might have to get a third team involved. Wicks, Smyly, Madrigal/Wisdom, Thompson (probably any of the bullpen arms), plus a prospect - Davis might be an interesting name to move off of the 40 man roster.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 11:52:22 GMT -5
I don’t really get this idea about Montgomery not going deep enough into games. Baseball has changed in a big way regarding how deep starting pitches are expected to go. Average innings pitched per start 2022/2023 Steele: 4.95/5.76 Taillon: 5.53/5.31 Montgomery: 5.56/5.88 Snell: 5.33/5.62 Montgomery has averaged more innings per start these last two seasons than either our ace or current dismal #2 have averaged, as well as beating our Snell in that regard. Steele and Snell have him beat in the number of times they go into the 7th, but that also means they are leaving games earlier more often. It’s all moot because he isn’t likely coming here but there are a lot of weird narratives out there about Montgomery that just aren’t true. He’s very consistent and has been a rock these last three seasons. Would you want him as your ace over Steele? No, but you wouldn’t sign him to be that. There are only two handfuls of starting pitchers who have outperformed him since 2021 but he doesn’t pile up strikeouts so he doesn’t get the attention. People are ready to defend Taillon as our number two because he had a strong second half so he’ll no doubt continue that pace but Montgomery who has outperformed him three years running (and that includes a second half last season where he also outperformed Taillon’s line) has this weird false narrative around him. Do people not like him because he was a Cardinal? Just weird. It’s Snell that doesn’t go very deep in games due to him being the high strikeout pitcher but also very high walks as well. I think he averaged 5.1 to 5.2 innings per start. I see Taillon as our #3 this year if he can pick up where he was in Aug & Sept.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 11:58:47 GMT -5
If the Cubs want to add a starting pitcher, I'd go back to Cleveland and look at Bieber - but I wouldn't give up a lot for him, because he's just a one year rental. But the money will also put the Cubs. The only sizeable contract the Cubs could move would be Smyly. Unless the Cubs are entertaining moving Taillon, Hendricks, Happ, or Suzuki. If the Cubs are willing to go over the CBT, then I'd revisit the Bieber and Clase talk (I think that talk was just forum speculation though). Might have to get a third team involved. Wicks, Smyly, Madrigal/Wisdom, Thompson (probably any of the bullpen arms), plus a prospect - Davis might be an interesting name to move off of the 40 man roster. That would be great but Cleveland is going to want #1-1/2 to 2 starter & a high quality closer value for those 2 guys & would probably “ask” for a package with PCA, Alcantara, Horton & Morel in which Jed would immediately hang up on them (I hope)..
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Post by kfidd on Feb 27, 2024 12:06:01 GMT -5
It’s Snell that doesn’t go very deep in games due to him being the high strikeout pitcher but also very high walks as well. I think he averaged 5.1 to 5.2 innings per start. I see Taillon as our #3 this year if he can pick up where he was in Aug & Sept. My bad, seems like I misunderstood you. I have read that opinion here though about Montgomery not going deep enough into games. Not something I understand. Taillon can be fine as a mid rotation starter for us as long as he can bury that atrocious first half he had. Still leaves a sizeable hole between him and Steele though. The belief there seems to be Imanaga but that’s a ton of faith to put in a guy who has never thrown a major league pitch and has a concerning home run rate. Fingies crossed. 🤞 I agree with cfin in Bieber, I think he’d be a strong fit. Not the dream but the dream seems dead. Bieber and the success he’s had previously as a dominant ace, entering his walk year so has all the incentive to perform at the top of his game, and video is out of him touching 93-94 in spring training already (though who knows, the radar gun could be cooked). All depends on the price of course and how reasonable Cleveland is being, but I do like the fit a lot.
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Post by TheChico on Feb 27, 2024 12:08:04 GMT -5
Rays were trying to sell high on Paredes with the outperform metrics. He plays passable 3B, but I don't know how the money would work. It will take more than Thompson, and I really want to see Morel get a serious chance to win the 3B spot, it is a game changer if he can.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 27, 2024 12:12:08 GMT -5
Rays were trying to sell high on Paredes with the outperform metrics. He plays passable 3B, but I don't know how the money would work. It will take more than Thompson, and I really want to see Morel get a serious chance to win the 3B spot, it is a game changer if he can. If Morel gets a full time chance at 3B and plays every day, I'm gong to go out and say he hits over 40 hrs and challenges the NL for top spot in HRs (I don't think Olson repeats 50+).
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Post by kfidd on Feb 27, 2024 12:17:26 GMT -5
There will be a lot of competition for the NL home run crowns this year with Ohtani switching leagues and Alonso in his walk year bid. I’d vote one of them.
Doesn’t change that if Morel can get everyday at bats I think he can touch 35-40 range. That is such a huge potential pay off for us that I feel like it simply needs to happen (Morel play third everyday, not Morel a lock to hit that many bombs).
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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 12:18:43 GMT -5
It will take more than Thompson, and I really want to see Morel get a serious chance to win the 3B spot, it is a game changer if he can. If Morel gets a full time chance at 3B and plays every day, I'm gong to go out and say he hits over 40 hrs and challenges the NL for top spot in HRs (I don't think Olson repeats 50+). That would be absolutely wonderful & is possible. I say a hard pass on Chapman.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Feb 27, 2024 12:19:49 GMT -5
There will be a lot of competition for the NL home run crowns this year with Ohtani switching leagues and Alonso in his walk year bid. I’d vote one of them. Doesn’t change that if Morel can get everyday at bats I think he can touch 35-40 range. That is such a huge potential pay off for us that I feel like it simply needs to happen (Morel play third everyday, not Morel a lock to hit that many bombs). I didn't say win, I said challenge. I just DO NOT want to see Morel get moved in a trade at all.
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Post by Mike on Feb 27, 2024 12:21:13 GMT -5
If Chapman gets a deal, it's almost guaranteed to have an opt-out or 1yr with option/buyout. Let someone else take the risk and we get a full year of Morel/Madrigal at 3B (and Shaw/Triantos in AAA) and see where we're at the end of the year... see if Chapman as a free agent makes sense for us in 2025.
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Post by cfin on Feb 27, 2024 12:24:55 GMT -5
It will take more than Thompson, and I really want to see Morel get a serious chance to win the 3B spot, it is a game changer if he can. If Morel gets a full time chance at 3B and plays every day, I'm gong to go out and say he hits over 40 hrs and challenges the NL for top spot in HRs (I don't think Olson repeats 50+). I'm not quite as bullish on Morel as everyone else.
There's really nothing in his past that tells me he's going to be a slugger. He's slugged his first couple of seasons in the majors, but that's really his only overwhelming slug.
This is why I probably would have advocating trading Morel to fill the 3B hole, except there's nobody to trade for to fill the 3B hole. Paredes maybe, but he comes with the same concerns as Morel.
It's not out of the question that Morel can be that type of slugger, and I certainly hope he does. But I'm just not in the same boat as others that believe it's a foregone conclusion that he will be.
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Post by cfin on Feb 27, 2024 12:29:47 GMT -5
If the Cubs want to add a starting pitcher, I'd go back to Cleveland and look at Bieber - but I wouldn't give up a lot for him, because he's just a one year rental. But the money will also put the Cubs. The only sizeable contract the Cubs could move would be Smyly. Unless the Cubs are entertaining moving Taillon, Hendricks, Happ, or Suzuki. If the Cubs are willing to go over the CBT, then I'd revisit the Bieber and Clase talk (I think that talk was just forum speculation though). Might have to get a third team involved. Wicks, Smyly, Madrigal/Wisdom, Thompson (probably any of the bullpen arms), plus a prospect - Davis might be an interesting name to move off of the 40 man roster. That would be great but Cleveland is going to want #1-1/2 to 2 starter & a high quality closer value for those 2 guys & would probably “ask” for a package with PCA, Alcantara, Horton & Morel in which Jed would immediately hang up on them (I hope).. The inclusion of Clase would happen because the Cubs would be willing to go over the CBT. If you're going to go over it, you might as well construct the best possible team to do so.
I can't imagine that Bieber would cost a whole lot by himself. Rumor was (again, maybe that was just forum talk) Cleveland wanted to get out from under his salary. Wicks + Madrigal/Thompson/bullpen arm for Bieber would seem to get it done. But that would put the Cubs over the CBT, unless they can find a taker for Smyly and all of his salary some where.
If the Red Sox don't sign Montgomery, might see if they would be interested in Smyly for salary relief.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Feb 27, 2024 12:49:28 GMT -5
If Morel gets a full time chance at 3B and plays every day, I'm gong to go out and say he hits over 40 hrs and challenges the NL for top spot in HRs (I don't think Olson repeats 50+). I'm not quite as bullish on Morel as everyone else.
There's really nothing in his past that tells me he's going to be a slugger. He's slugged his first couple of seasons in the majors, but that's really his only overwhelming slug.
This is why I probably would have advocating trading Morel to fill the 3B hole, except there's nobody to trade for to fill the 3B hole. Paredes maybe, but he comes with the same concerns as Morel.
It's not out of the question that Morel can be that type of slugger, and I certainly hope he does. But I'm just not in the same boat as others that believe it's a foregone conclusion that he will be.
The Cubs signed Morel as a 145 lb teenager. Forget the past. He has a different body. Trust what you've seen with your eyes and not his teenage statistics.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 27, 2024 13:08:28 GMT -5
I don’t really get this idea about Montgomery not going deep enough into games. Baseball has changed in a big way regarding how deep starting pitches are expected to go. Average innings pitched per start 2022/2023 Steele: 4.95/5.76 Taillon: 5.53/5.31 Montgomery: 5.56/5.88 Snell: 5.33/5.62 Montgomery has averaged more innings per start these last two seasons than either our ace or current dismal #2 have averaged, as well as beating our Snell in that regard. Steele and Snell have him beat in the number of times they go into the 7th, but that also means they are leaving games earlier more often. It’s all moot because he isn’t likely coming here but there are a lot of weird narratives out there about Montgomery that just aren’t true. He’s very consistent and has been a rock these last three seasons. Would you want him as your ace over Steele? No, but you wouldn’t sign him to be that. There are only two handfuls of starting pitchers who have outperformed him since 2021 but he doesn’t pile up strikeouts so he doesn’t get the attention. People are ready to defend Taillon as our number two because he had a strong second half so he’ll no doubt continue that pace but Montgomery who has outperformed him three years running (and that includes a second half last season where he also outperformed Taillon’s line) has this weird false narrative around him. Do people not like him because he was a Cardinal? Just weird. I like Montgomery, just not at the ace money Boras is asking for him , or anything near it. I'd take him on a Taillon like contract. My beef with him has been people are saying he's an ace or #2 and I don't see a guy who's never gotten one single Cy Vote as being either. To me he's a #3 , which the Cubs pretty much have a rotation full of those types. He's not a big enough upgrade over anybody to warrant paying a big contract to . Give Wicks a season or two and I think he could be just as good.
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Post by TheChico on Feb 27, 2024 13:17:02 GMT -5
Cubs traded Bailey Horn back to the White Sox for Pitcher Matt Thompson.
Cubs now have a 40 man roster spot to add Belly.
Bummed about Horn, I liked his upside as a bullpen lefty and what is going on with all the 1B/DH additions if the plan is to keep Mervis too.
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Post by lu13cubbie on Feb 27, 2024 13:21:44 GMT -5
Not sure about this move. Guess we'll prolly see more of Smyly in the bull pen.
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