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Post by TheChico on Aug 2, 2023 15:17:36 GMT -5
Cubs CBT payroll will vary big one direction or another this offseason.
team options that will get picked up:
Gomes $6 million is a lock at this point
Hendricks - will be back, but explore declining the option and work out a new deal with a lower AAV, something like 2/18 type deal.
Stroman - was a lock to opt. out but if he cannot get it back together he will opt in which is a 23 AAV Hit
Boxberger - Option will be declined.
Arb. players;
Madrigal - Should get a raise around $3 -3.5 Million.
Dead money player:
Mancini $7 million
Bote $3 million
CBT Max: $237,000,000
Committed Salary in 2024 (with Stro) $ $176 million ($61 Million under)
Committed Salary without Stro $ $153 Million. ($84 million Under)
The Cubs will go over the luxury tax if they sign Ohtani and Bellinger.
First timers; 20% penalty up to $20 million over
Over $20 million - $40 million over is a 12% surcharge
So at minimum the Cubs will have if surcharge is not an option to the Rickets:
$81 million with Stro
$104 million without Stro
So lets live in a world they sign Bellinger and Ohtani and Stroman opts in
Ohtani $50 million
Bellinger -26 million
Those two alone will put them over the luxury tax but under the surcharge but only will have around $5 million to spend to stay under the surcharge and will have to decide if the Rickets are ok which I believe they will if they sign Ohtani to allow the 12% Surcharge to go $20-$40 million over to fill in the rest of the roster, but this can be avoided due to all the the depth Hoyer built in the farm as well.
So Hoyer will have to fill the rest of the roster needs like bullpen and bench internally which they can and will have to make some trades as well.
Lineup:
PCA CF
Hoerner 2B
Ohtani DH/P
Bellinger 1B
Swanson SS
Happ LF
Suzuki/Morel DH
Madrigal 3B
Gomes/Amaya C
Rotation:
Ohtani
Steele
Stroman
Taillon
Hendricks
Cubs will have a ton of depth in the farm and the bench will be deep, the pitching depth will be overflowing which is what you need to be a world series contender by next season.
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Post by kfidd on Aug 2, 2023 15:36:48 GMT -5
Good breakdown. Part of me thinks that if Stroman doesn’t opt out they won’t keep Hendricks around. That’s a TON of money tied up into the rotation, around 110m I believe if we think Ohtani is the 50m man. Just not sure that’s practical. They might be hoping a guy like Wesneski, Assad, or Brown can take a big leap and fill that 5th spot.
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Post by skokiejoe on Aug 2, 2023 15:44:35 GMT -5
Don’t forget that Tauchman Steele Alzolay Leiter Jr Merryweather are all eligible for arbitration in 2024
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Post by cfin on Aug 2, 2023 15:54:06 GMT -5
I would have to think that they will try to unload Happ or Suzuki in the offseason.
Will be really interesting to see what Canario looks like the final few months, both in AAA and I'd have to hope that he get's a look-see this year in the majors. Canario profiles as a more typical power bat in a corner outfield spot.
But... we saw what happened when a lot of expectations were put on Mervis and how that panned out, so I'm not sure if it's wise to put those expectations on Canario.
But unloading one of Happ or Suzuki, even if you have to pay some of the salary, could go a long ways toward giving some payroll flexibility.
Might also consider resigning Candelario for 3rd base and letting Madrigal go. Depends on how Candelario performs the rest of the year. Candelario will cost more, but does he offer more production per dollar than Madrigal?
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Post by Mike on Aug 2, 2023 16:26:19 GMT -5
If you saw Hoyer at the press conference, "We really like Belli" with a huge, sh*t-eating grin on his face... I think he's getting extended. We're not pursuing Ohtani. Part of me thinks Stroman will opt in just so that doesn't happen.
Happ and Suzuki have FULL NTC. They're not going anywhere.
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Post by TheChico on Aug 2, 2023 16:28:42 GMT -5
Don’t forget that Tauchman Steele Alzolay Leiter Jr Merryweather are all eligible for arbitration in 2024 Good call Joe! that is around an extra $5-6 million. |
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Post by Mike on Aug 2, 2023 16:38:53 GMT -5
Smyly = 9.5 Lux AAV
AND....
....
.....
HEYWARD! 5.0M Lux AAV!
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Post by TheChico on Aug 2, 2023 17:21:03 GMT -5
Smyly = 9.5 Lux AAV AND.... .... ..... HEYWARD! 5.0M Lux AAV! Smyly was already considered Heyward $5 million deferred bonus is not included into the CBT after this season as MLB includes all bonus money even defered as part of the AAV calculation over the course of the contract term which was 8 years because it is guaranteed money. MLB did it that way so large market teams don't find loopholes to manipulate the CBT tax. So while he will still be on payroll for $5 million it will no longer effects the CBT calculations going forward. |
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Post by thisbuds4u on Aug 2, 2023 22:50:21 GMT -5
Good breakdown. Part of me thinks that if Stroman doesn’t opt out they won’t keep Hendricks around. That’s a TON of money tied up into the rotation, around 110m I believe if we think Ohtani is the 50m man. Just not sure that’s practical. They might be hoping a guy like Wesneski, Assad, or Brown can take a big leap and fill that 5th spot. Even if Stroman does pick up his option, I don't believe there is a no-trade clause attached to it. That is something that both sides will have to work out. Hendricks, I believe, would be willing to renegotiate his contract so I'm not sure he will be going. As far as Ohtani, I would pass on him if his contract number is near $50 million a season. While he's a great player, the Cubs could use that money to re-sign Bellinger and, maybe, Candelario. I would add a closer like Hader if possible and another arm or two to the bullpen. |
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Post by fine09 on Aug 3, 2023 7:47:35 GMT -5
Cubs CBT payroll will vary big one direction or another this offseason. team options that will get picked up:
Gomes $6 million is a lock at this point Hendricks - will be back, but explore declining the option and work out a new deal with a lower AAV, something like 2/18 type deal. Stroman - was a lock to opt. out but if he cannot get it back together he will opt in which is a 23 AAV Hit Boxberger - Option will be declined. Arb. players; Madrigal - Should get a raise around $3 -3.5 Million. Dead money player:
Mancini $7 million Bote $3 million CBT Max: $237,000,000Committed Salary in 2024 (with Stro) $ $176 million ($61 Million under) Committed Salary without Stro $ $153 Million. ($84 million Under) The Cubs will go over the luxury tax if they sign Ohtani and Bellinger. First timers; 20% penalty up to $20 million over Over $20 million - $40 million over is a 12% surcharge So at minimum the Cubs will have if surcharge is not an option to the Rickets: $81 million with Stro $104 million without Stro So lets live in a world they sign Bellinger and Ohtani and Stroman opts inOhtani $50 million Bellinger -26 million Those two alone will put them over the luxury tax but under the surcharge but only will have around $5 million to spend to stay under the surcharge and will have to decide if the Rickets are ok which I believe they will if they sign Ohtani to allow the 12% Surcharge to go $20-$40 million over to fill in the rest of the roster, but this can be avoided due to all the the depth Hoyer built in the farm as well. So Hoyer will have to fill the rest of the roster needs like bullpen and bench internally which they can and will have to make some trades as well. Lineup: PCA CF Hoerner 2B Ohtani DH/P Bellinger 1B Swanson SS Happ LF Suzuki/Morel DH Madrigal 3B Gomes/Amaya C Rotation: Ohtani Steele Stroman Taillon Hendricks Cubs will have a ton of depth in the farm and the bench will be deep, the pitching depth will be overflowing which is what you need to be a world series contender by next season. Really good info Chico. I believe Hendricks will sign a 2 year deal with the Cubs but I'm thinking it might have an AAV of 9 million per year & he's only has to give us 1 WAR to be worth the money & it would be fantastic for the younger arms to have Kyle as a mentor with him being the smartest guy in the room - no matter who else happens to be in the room.. I think that Ohtani will end up with a 50 mil AAV over 10 years but still only believe the Cubs have a 15% to 20% chance of signing him just because the west coast is pretty nice & well, where we live just isn't.. I don't think that the luxury tax situation will be a big issue over the next 3 to 4 years because if you want to win it all again that has to be an afterthought. |
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Post by fine09 on Aug 3, 2023 7:53:34 GMT -5
If you saw Hoyer at the press conference, "We really like Belli" with a huge, sh*t-eating grin on his face... I think he's getting extended. We're not pursuing Ohtani. Part of me thinks Stroman will opt in just so that doesn't happen. Happ and Suzuki have FULL NTC. They're not going anywhere. They won't sign an extension but I do believe we will sign him to a Nimmo type deal in the off season due to us having a huge leg up with the qualifying offer on him. I think a deal of 7 years & 147 million gets him and a 21 mil. AAV is not going to cripple us financially. 147 mil from us would cost another large market team an estimated 147 mil + a 10 mil hit (prospect total value) + a 10 mil. Int'l spending hit (for large market teams over the threshold - possible unless small market signs). So other teams would need to value him at 7 years at 167 mil or 24 mil AAV which seems a stretch. |
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Post by batman66 on Aug 3, 2023 7:54:27 GMT -5
Don’t forget that Tauchman Steele Alzolay Leiter Jr Merryweather are all eligible for arbitration in 2024 None will make a lot though |
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Post by skokiejoe on Aug 3, 2023 11:22:00 GMT -5
Here are the numbers for COTS. According to COTS Heyward is owe nothing for 2024
Stroman $23,667,000
Suzuki $17,000,000
Hendricks $16,000,000 Team Option 1.5M Buy out
Swanson $25,286,000
Tailon $17,000,000
Happ $20,333,000
Smyly $9,500,000
Gomes $6,000,000 Team Option 1.5M Buy out
Barnhardt $3,250,000
Hoerner $11,667,000
Boxberger $750,000 Buy out
Madrigal Arbitration
Tauchman Arbitration
Leiter Jr. Arbitration
Burdi Arbitration
Heuer Arbitration
Wisdom Arbitration Non-Tender?
Alozay Arbitration
Steele Arbitration
K. Thompson Arbitration Non-Tender?
Merryweather Arbitration
Rucker Automatic Renewal
Hughes Automatic Renewal
Cuas Automatic Renewal
Assad Automatic Renewal
Wesneski Automatic Renewal
Roberts Automatic Renewal
Mastrobuoni Automatic Renewal
Alcántara Automatic Renewal
Amaya Automatic Renewal
Brown Automatic Renewal
Canario Automatic Renewal
Davis Automatic Renewal Non-Tender?
Estrada Automatic Renewal
Jensen Automatic Renewal
Kay Automatic Renewal Non-Tender?
Kilian Automatic Renewal
Mervis Automatic Renewal
Morel Automatic Renewal
Palencia Automatic Renewal
Young Automatic Renewal Non-Tender?
Mancini $7,000,000 Dead Money
Bote $3,000,000 Dead Money
0- to 3-year bonus pool $1,667,000
40-man players in minors $2,250,000
Estimated Player Benefits $17,000,000
Projected 40-man CB Tax Payroll $159,370,000
Competitive Balance Tax Threshold $237,000,000
Amount under threshold -$77,630,000
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