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Post by batman66 on Feb 21, 2023 19:59:03 GMT -5
That's fine, just being in the playoffs is not good enough, but lets not sit here and act like some super team is winning every year. There have been 8 different teams win the championship the last 10 years. Only the Red Sox and Astros winning 2 times. Getting there annually increases your chances. I agree with you on this. I think as fans the ultimate thing we can ask for is perennial playoff baseball. If the Cubs are making the playoffs year in and year out, they are giving themselves a chance and I get to dream about a championship and obsess over team/player performance a little while longer every year. I don’t necessarily buy into the idea of building a super team that is World Series bound. The regular season is a grueling marathon where anything and everything can happen. I think building a team that can play at a high level long enough to survive that marathon and earn their ticket into October is a great strategy, and the Cardinals have done that. There also does have to come a point though as fans where you start to point the finger. Playoff baseball is exciting, but if after four straight playoff appearances you haven’t won a single game in the NLCS, you start thinking about change. While I applaud the Cardinals organization on some levels, they don’t do something that you’ve been hyper critical of the Cubs for, and that’s spending big in free agency to improve the team. They find ways to improve in other areas, like always squeezing the most out of their prospects and winning some ridiculously lopsided trades like the Arenado one, but they’ve had opportunities to push themselves over the top in free agency and they haven’t. AAV payroll added by the Cardinals in free agency these last three off seasons (all following poor playoff results): 2020: 17m 2021: 22.2m 2022: 17.5m Long story short, my dream is the Cubs are making the playoffs every year. My hope is that starting this season they can begin flirting with that idea, and a relatively weak division might allow for that. But it’s important to keep getting better every year, and I think the Cardinals have rested on their laurels of being in a bad division a little too long and not made the moves necessary to improve their recent playoff results. GREAT point about them basically doing nothing to fix the issues that have them getting their asses kicked out of the playoffs so badly and besides the lack of free agent spending they also have not done muchy at trade deadlines in contending seasons and they have also not increased their payroll much since 2016. STL yearly CB tax payrolls 2016 178.3 2017 182.7 2018 175.7 2019 197.8 2020 178.4 2021 198.3 2022 174.4
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Post by Deleted on Feb 22, 2023 7:53:27 GMT -5
I'm not all that impressed with the ZIPS projection. Sure we probably won't winthe división but I peg us at 83-85 wins in best case scenario (all things considered). I think having an elite D at C, 2B, & SS (or as close to it as possible) makes for an additional 3-4 wins that ZIPS may not account for.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 22, 2023 10:35:06 GMT -5
I'm not all that impressed with the ZIPS projection. Sure we probably won't winthe división but I peg us at 83-85 wins in best case scenario (all things considered). I think having an elite D at C, 2B, & SS (or as close to it as possible) makes for an additional 3-4 wins that ZIPS may not account for. That is also where I predict the Cubs to be. They just cannot be only a handful of wins ahead of the Reds with that really weak lineup.
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Post by batman66 on Aug 31, 2023 12:12:39 GMT -5
Looks like ZIPS sucks at projections
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Aug 31, 2023 13:09:41 GMT -5
I can't say anything bad about the Cardinals. As a Bears fan, they remind me of the Packers. Just when you think they're going to take a step back they go and win 13 games (90 for Cards). It's like identical organizational rivals to the teams I love. 78 wins.... I mean, I don't think it's far off. The roster can win only 74 or it can win 84, so much unknown. What I do know though is that even with young guys, there are quite a few veterans this year added to the roster like Belly, Hosmer, Mancini, Barnhardt and of course Swanson. Last season it felt like the roster was just soooo young. Even though Heyward was a veteran, he wasn't offering anything offensively when he was playing. We'll see. Things were going well here until Batman baited me in to talking about the Cardinals LOL glad I was wrong though. I had the Cubs at 78 wins, with a peak of 84. 13 wins in the next 29 games to get there, I think they'll be just fine. 88 looks about right.
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Post by trav768 on Aug 31, 2023 13:51:46 GMT -5
AL East current record in parentheses and bold Yankees 89-73 (65-68) Blue Jays 88-74 WC1 (73-61) Rays 86-76 WC2 (82-52)WC Orioles 80-82 (83-50) division leader Red Sox 79-83 (69-65)
AL Central Guardians 83-79 (64-70) Twins 80-82 (69-65) division leader White Sox 74-88 !!! (53-81) Tigers 71-91 (59-74) Royals 70-92 (41-94)
AL West Astros 90-72 (77-58)WC Mariners 85-77 WC3 (76-57) division leader Angels 85-77 (64-70) Rangers 79-83 (75-58) WC A’s 72-90 (39-95)
Projected NL Standings: NL East Braves 94-68 (87-45) division leader Mets 94-68 (61-73) Phillies 85-77 (74-59) WC Marlins 75-87 (66-67) Nationals 64-98 (62-72)
NL Central Cardinals 91-71 (58-76) Brewers 83-79 (74-59) division leader Cubs 78-84 (71-62) WC Reds 70-92 (69-66) Pirates 68-94 (61-73)
NL West Padres 91-71 (62-72) Dodgers 91-71 (83-49) division leader Giants 88-74 (69-64) WC DBACKS 81-81 (69-65) Rockies 66-96 (49-84)
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Post by batman66 on Aug 31, 2023 14:12:47 GMT -5
I can't say anything bad about the Cardinals. As a Bears fan, they remind me of the Packers. Just when you think they're going to take a step back they go and win 13 games (90 for Cards). It's like identical organizational rivals to the teams I love. 78 wins.... I mean, I don't think it's far off. The roster can win only 74 or it can win 84, so much unknown. What I do know though is that even with young guys, there are quite a few veterans this year added to the roster like Belly, Hosmer, Mancini, Barnhardt and of course Swanson. Last season it felt like the roster was just soooo young. Even though Heyward was a veteran, he wasn't offering anything offensively when he was playing. We'll see. Things were going well here until Batman baited me in to talking about the Cardinals LOL glad I was wrong though. I had the Cubs at 78 wins, with a peak of 84. 13 wins in the next 29 games to get there, I think they'll be just fine. 88 looks about right. I seemed to be the only one questioning STL projections and one of the few questioning the Cubs only being 3 games better than 2022 , but I didn't have STL as being as bad as they are. I just didn;t see them running away with the division like the projections had them. I missed on the Brewers though , I had them around .500 .
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Post by fine09 on Sept 19, 2023 13:48:15 GMT -5
AL East Yankees 89-73 Blue Jays 88-74 WC1 Rays 86-76 WC2 Orioles 80-82 Red Sox 79-83 AL Central Guardians 83-79 Twins 80-82 White Sox 74-88 !!! Tigers 71-91 Royals 70-92 AL West Astros 90-72 Mariners 85-77 WC3 Angels 85-77 Rangers 79-83 A’s 72-90 NL coming out today. My guess Cubs will be projected with 78 wins. ZIP's might end up being right on the winners of (1) division as long as the Astro's go down in flames as I hope they will.. 17% success rate isn't that good in my book.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Sept 19, 2023 15:47:42 GMT -5
I'm not sure why , maybe I'm wrong in my feeling with this, but you seem to ignore pitching a lot when you judge the Cubs , even when it came to identifying core players, you never mentioned Hendricks. In the prospects you never mention the pitchers , in stuff like this, you just always seem to focus on the bats. I've explained this numerous times.... pitching, especially bullpen guys, are the most volatile players in baseball. Can have a 0.95 ERA one season and then 5.49 ERA the next. I like the Cubs pitching. I think it's top 10, but because it's so young I need to see it perform again. For me, winning in baseball, is all about offense. Mostly because pitchers don't stretch 7-8-9 inning that much anymore. You gotta score runs. So yes, for me, the success of the Cubs going forward hinges on offensive production. The volatility of pitching has proved me right yet again...
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jan 16, 2024 14:09:01 GMT -5
I've explained this numerous times.... pitching, especially bullpen guys, are the most volatile players in baseball. Can have a 0.95 ERA one season and then 5.49 ERA the next. I like the Cubs pitching. I think it's top 10, but because it's so young I need to see it perform again. For me, winning in baseball, is all about offense. Mostly because pitchers don't stretch 7-8-9 inning that much anymore. You gotta score runs. So yes, for me, the success of the Cubs going forward hinges on offensive production. The volatility of pitching has proved me right yet again... Except we hit better than we pitched last season.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jan 16, 2024 17:19:50 GMT -5
Abd we so far have literally lost our best middle of the order power hitter.
Down the stretch, the Cubs starting pitching wasn't as great as it was in the first half and in to August. Stroman issues were a big part of that, but Steele was getting lit up down the stretch as well. So, the inconsistency of pitching down the stretch cost the Cubs a of of games.
Again, as I've said, the main focus, big money contracts-wise, IMO, should always be hitting.
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