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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 3, 2021 5:00:46 GMT -5
After June, the remaining schedule gets a lot easier. And this team CAN compete for the World Series. While the starting pitching may be lacking, the bullpen has been dominant. SP has been lacking , but Hendricks and Davies are inching back to what they should be and Alzolay really seems to be making progress to the point I think he will be a legit #2 or 3 caliber starter. The bullpen does worry me a bit , we can't excpect it to continue to be this good and eventually the workload is going to be an issue. Cubs have played 51 games Chafin has pitched in 25 Tepera 25 Kimbrel 22 Winkler 20 Brothers 19 The fact is the Cubs are not limited to just those 5 relievers. Nance, Thompson, Steele, Maples, Weick, Ryan, etc. are all picking up the load also. The Royals were in the World Series twice, winning one, and the Brewers came close mainly because of their dominating bullpens. I believe part of the success the bullpen has had is opposing hitters are having a hard time adjusting from the soft-tossing Cubs starters to a bullpen the has a lot of hard throwers.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 3, 2021 10:14:30 GMT -5
SP has been lacking , but Hendricks and Davies are inching back to what they should be and Alzolay really seems to be making progress to the point I think he will be a legit #2 or 3 caliber starter. The bullpen does worry me a bit , we can't excpect it to continue to be this good and eventually the workload is going to be an issue. Cubs have played 51 games Chafin has pitched in 25 Tepera 25 Kimbrel 22 Winkler 20 Brothers 19 The fact is the Cubs are not limited to just those 5 relievers. Nance, Thompson, Steele, Maples, Weick, Ryan, etc. are all picking up the load also. The Royals were in the World Series twice, winning one, and the Brewers came close mainly because of their dominating bullpens. I believe part of the success the bullpen has had is opposing hitters are having a hard time adjusting from the soft-tossing Cubs starters to a bullpen the has a lot of hard throwers. The Cubs bullpen gives opposing teams a lot of different looks as well, yeah, they all throw fairly hard but also you're looking at a lot of different arm angles, different sides of the plate but most of all, it seems that the bullpen finally understands the philosophy of "throw strikes, don't give away bases".
Although, it seems like walks have crept up a bit here lately, I love seeing our guys come in and challenge hitters. I always say, "play the odds" and the odds are always in the pitchers favor.
It's really fun watching the Cubs play right now, the "fill in" guys are really stepping up and have been very impressive. Wisdom aside, Alcantra has been absolutely smoking the ball!
I was thinking yesterday, after the Kim/Pham collision, that the bad umpiring on that call was going to cost the Cubs the game... I mean were we really going to scratch out six runs against one of the best pitchers in the league? With Wisdom, Sogard, Ortega and Higgins in the line up? No KB? No Wilco?
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 3, 2021 10:28:35 GMT -5
SP has been lacking , but Hendricks and Davies are inching back to what they should be and Alzolay really seems to be making progress to the point I think he will be a legit #2 or 3 caliber starter. The bullpen does worry me a bit , we can't excpect it to continue to be this good and eventually the workload is going to be an issue. Cubs have played 51 games Chafin has pitched in 25 Tepera 25 Kimbrel 22 Winkler 20 Brothers 19 The issue with Alzolay is his career high innings pitched isn't very high. Not sure they can count on him later on, unless they have a plan to give him plenty of spaced out rest. I am kind of surprised that he was in the starting 5 to start the year as I figured they would want to monitor his usage and the best way to do it is to hide him in the pen for awhile. I really hope you are wrong about Alzolay because that guy just seems to get better and better with each outing.
I'm not surprised at all about him being in the rotation, he gives the rotation a different look (being that everyone else is low 90's) and they kept his pitch count down.
I will say the one person I'm surprised they haven't attempted to stretch out more is Keegan Thompson... Perhaps next season so he can develop a better feel for his tertiary pitches, he throws four really impressive pitches but lacks control and consistency with his 12/6 curve. His 4 seam/cutter and slider mix is pretty devastating, hitting low 90's on a slide piece with a late downward break.
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Post by rvn11 on Jun 3, 2021 10:54:45 GMT -5
Is Alzolay's lack of career innings a negative in that he had some injuries previously right when he was about to be called up (2018 lat strain), or a positive in that his arm is young and fresh? I'm high on him, he had low usage the past 2 years as they didn't want to burn him out, now's the time to take advantage of that. It's not like they're running him out there 8 innings and 140 pitches like guys in the past, they're keeping it pretty minimal right now. He just has to work on being a bit more efficient and not work himself into bad spots, stuff that comes with experience and maturity.
My concern is the bullpen and the amount of usage they're getting right now. Yes they've been amazing but they're seeing a lot of innings with starter usually going 6 or so, I'd hate for them to peak too soon and start fading down the stretch as we've become accustomed to seeing in years past from others. I'd love to see some sort of long reliever guy (like a better Alec Mills) that eats up a couple innings should a starter go only 5 like yesterday.
Also mildly concerned what things will look like when guys like Heyward and Marisnick get healthy. There's going to be a roster crunch, and with the replacements currently getting it done while this team is clicking it could be a negative when some guys come back.
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Post by cfin on Jun 3, 2021 11:53:16 GMT -5
The Alzolay issue is kind of the issue with developing pitching and why I think Epstein and Hoyer went more for hitters in the draft than pitching.
Pitching has to be coddled a lot more than hitting. With a pitching prospect it's like you're almost waiting for their elbow to go out so they can get Tommy John surgery, start building back up, and then become a pitching force.
Last year Alzolay pitched 21.1 innings. In 2019 he pitched 69.1 innings. I would be shocked if he goes over 120 innings this year and 100 innings may be a more realistic goal.
Already this year he's pitched 54.2 innings over 10 starts. Which is a little over 5.1 innings per start. At that pace he'll reach 120 innings with about 12 more starts. He'll reach 100 innings with a little over 8 more starts. I would say he's got about 10 more starts before they start shutting him down.
But maybe the plan is for Thompson to take over his spot in the rotation. Although, Thompson really hasn't fared much better. He didn't pitch at all in 2020. In 2019 he only pitched 10 innings. In 2018 he did pitch 129.2 innings, but that's probably too far away to build upon. Thus far this year he's pitched 17.1 innings. At most, I'd say he's looking at 50 inning this year and that's probably over doing it. 30 to 40 innings might be more realistic - so I really can't see him taking a full time rotation spot this year.
This is why I was hoping Shelby Miller would have some staying power. If he had shown anything, I think it's reasonable to think he would have taken over for Alzolay in the rotation and push Alzolay to the bullpen (for better innings management) or to the minors (again for innings management).
Don't misunderstand me. Alzolay has done nothing to show he should be sent down or moved to the bullpen, but it's just the nature of coddling young arms. It takes years to build up confidence that extended use won't result in an elbow or shoulder injury and that's what makes it so difficult to lean heavily on young pitching. When the Cubs signed Lester for 2015 - his arm had been proven so there wasn't the need to coddle him like you would a younger arm.
In regards to the bullpen... The Cubs have taken the Brewers blueprint and run with it. And it's more to my point that a bullpen is less about expensive "dependable" options and more throw crap on the wall and see what sticks. Brother, Chafin, Maples, Megill, Mills, Nance, Steele, Tepera, Thompson, Wick, Wieck, Winkler. Add Holder and Marquez as possible options late on and you have a lot of choices and a lot of those players are optional, so you can send them down if they are ineffective or need extended rest. Or if they're not optional, they don't cost a ton of money and can more easily be released.
So while the bullpen has been used a lot, I suspect that you'll see a lot less of Thompson when Steele is activated (or Megill, or Wieck, or Holder) as the bullpen "rotation" changes.
The ability to utilize a bullpen like this speaks a lot to the Cubs success this season. The quicker you can establish what arms are dependable, the quicker you can set a bullpen "rotation" or order of precedence for bullpen arms. It just so happens that the Cubs bullpen - outside of Maples - has been exceptionally dependable. You can just about put any of those arms in any situation. And Maples hasn't been horrible, but he's definitely the weakest link in the bullpen (so far).
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Post by cfin on Jun 3, 2021 12:01:49 GMT -5
Also mildly concerned what things will look like when guys like Heyward and Marisnick get healthy. There's going to be a roster crunch, and with the replacements currently getting it done while this team is clicking it could be a negative when some guys come back. No doubt, this is going to be interesting. If Marisnick comes back and hits like he was hitting before the hamstring injury (which might be asking for a lot), you've gotta think that he displaces Happ in CF for the majority of the starts. Duffy and Hoerner also deserve to be in the starting lineup if they continue to hit like they did before hitting the IL. But so long as Wisdom is hitting like he is, he's gotta be in there some where, doesn't he? Heyward still hasn't done anything to impress me offensively, but will Ross really sit him on the bench? If Heyward has to play RF, then does that mean we see more of Bryant in CF with Wisdom at 3B and Duffy/Hoerner at 2B? Or Bryant in RF, Hoerner/Marisnick in CF, Duffy at 2B, and Wisdom at 3B? Probably not wise to think that all of Marisnick, Hoerner, and Duffy will come back hitting like the IL stint never happened. So chances are this will resolve itself. But definitely could be a dilemma if they all come back strong.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 3, 2021 14:02:50 GMT -5
Also mildly concerned what things will look like when guys like Heyward and Marisnick get healthy. There's going to be a roster crunch, and with the replacements currently getting it done while this team is clicking it could be a negative when some guys come back. No doubt, this is going to be interesting. If Marisnick comes back and hits like he was hitting before the hamstring injury (which might be asking for a lot), you've gotta think that he displaces Happ in CF for the majority of the starts. Duffy and Hoerner also deserve to be in the starting lineup if they continue to hit like they did before hitting the IL. But so long as Wisdom is hitting like he is, he's gotta be in there some where, doesn't he? Heyward still hasn't done anything to impress me offensively, but will Ross really sit him on the bench? If Heyward has to play RF, then does that mean we see more of Bryant in CF with Wisdom at 3B and Duffy/Hoerner at 2B? Or Bryant in RF, Hoerner/Marisnick in CF, Duffy at 2B, and Wisdom at 3B? Probably not wise to think that all of Marisnick, Hoerner, and Duffy will come back hitting like the IL stint never happened. So chances are this will resolve itself. But definitely could be a dilemma if they all come back strong. There is no way the Cubs will be able to keep everyone on the roster...
I assume, unless the Cubs do something completely unexpected like DFA Heyward (which may make sense) Wisdom would probably be most logically the one sent down. Alcantra is out of options so they will lose him if they remove him from the roster, with the way he is hitting in both AAA and since he's been called up, that would be a huge mistake.
Hoerner, IMO, needs to be the primary everyday player at second base. His defense is game changing, and his bat skill set is the same as Duffy's. I wouldn't opt for Duffy over Nico unless Nico just turns ice cold.
I don't care if Heyward comes back, I'm not changing the dynamic of the offense too much.. (Hello Heyward you fourth outfielder you). Pederson, Happ, Bryant remain in the outfield. Duffy/Wisdom at third, Baez, Nico, Rizzo, Contreras.
Heyward, Duffy/Wisdom/Sogard, Alcantra, Marsinick off the bench but then we would have to run a short bullpen. With the 2 times through the order way Ross has been operating that might get a little difficult.
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Post by thisbuds4u on Jun 3, 2021 14:11:59 GMT -5
The biggest need the Cubs have is a back-up catcher. Between, Wolters, Romine and Higgins, they are hitting a combined .102.
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Post by cfin on Jun 3, 2021 14:35:22 GMT -5
I have to wonder if they would be so bold as to option Happ down to AAA?
That would be predicated on 1) Do you really want Bryant full time in CF? or 2) Marisnick coming back and performing like he was before the hamstring injury. I suppose you could put Pederson in CF.
But yea, definitely a roster crunch coming.
As long as Wisdom keeps hitting like he's been hitting, I'm not sure you can send him down. Of course, the chances of him keeping this up over an extended period is not good, so that may answer itself.
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Post by trav768 on Jun 3, 2021 14:36:24 GMT -5
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Post by batman66 on Jun 3, 2021 15:01:30 GMT -5
The issue with Alzolay is his career high innings pitched isn't very high. Not sure they can count on him later on, unless they have a plan to give him plenty of spaced out rest. I am kind of surprised that he was in the starting 5 to start the year as I figured they would want to monitor his usage and the best way to do it is to hide him in the pen for awhile. I really hope you are wrong about Alzolay because that guy just seems to get better and better with each outing.
I'm not surprised at all about him being in the rotation, he gives the rotation a different look (being that everyone else is low 90's) and they kept his pitch count down.
I will say the one person I'm surprised they haven't attempted to stretch out more is Keegan Thompson... Perhaps next season so he can develop a better feel for his tertiary pitches, he throws four really impressive pitches but lacks control and consistency with his 12/6 curve. His 4 seam/cutter and slider mix is pretty devastating, hitting low 90's on a slide piece with a late downward break.
They aren't really keeping Adbert's pitch count down. He averages 83 pitches per start. They probably planned on stretching out Thompson at some point, but he's been so good being used the way he is that i think plans may have changed.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 3, 2021 15:06:49 GMT -5
Also mildly concerned what things will look like when guys like Heyward and Marisnick get healthy. There's going to be a roster crunch, and with the replacements currently getting it done while this team is clicking it could be a negative when some guys come back. No doubt, this is going to be interesting. If Marisnick comes back and hits like he was hitting before the hamstring injury (which might be asking for a lot), you've gotta think that he displaces Happ in CF for the majority of the starts. Duffy and Hoerner also deserve to be in the starting lineup if they continue to hit like they did before hitting the IL. But so long as Wisdom is hitting like he is, he's gotta be in there some where, doesn't he? Heyward still hasn't done anything to impress me offensively, but will Ross really sit him on the bench? If Heyward has to play RF, then does that mean we see more of Bryant in CF with Wisdom at 3B and Duffy/Hoerner at 2B? Or Bryant in RF, Hoerner/Marisnick in CF, Duffy at 2B, and Wisdom at 3B? Probably not wise to think that all of Marisnick, Hoerner, and Duffy will come back hitting like the IL stint never happened. So chances are this will resolve itself. But definitely could be a dilemma if they all come back strong. It will work itself out. I'm sure somebody else will get injured and or get cold. Although he's been impressive and hitting the ball hard and getting great results I wouldn't exactly reserve a roster spot for Wisdom just yet ( remember Bryan LaHair) . But I would ride playing him while he is hot as far as they can.
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Post by okeecub on Jun 3, 2021 16:02:05 GMT -5
No doubt, this is going to be interesting. If Marisnick comes back and hits like he was hitting before the hamstring injury (which might be asking for a lot), you've gotta think that he displaces Happ in CF for the majority of the starts. Duffy and Hoerner also deserve to be in the starting lineup if they continue to hit like they did before hitting the IL. But so long as Wisdom is hitting like he is, he's gotta be in there some where, doesn't he? Heyward still hasn't done anything to impress me offensively, but will Ross really sit him on the bench? If Heyward has to play RF, then does that mean we see more of Bryant in CF with Wisdom at 3B and Duffy/Hoerner at 2B? Or Bryant in RF, Hoerner/Marisnick in CF, Duffy at 2B, and Wisdom at 3B? Probably not wise to think that all of Marisnick, Hoerner, and Duffy will come back hitting like the IL stint never happened. So chances are this will resolve itself. But definitely could be a dilemma if they all come back strong. It will work itself out. I'm sure somebody else will get injured and or get cold. Although he's been impressive and hitting the ball hard and getting great results I wouldn't exactly reserve a roster spot for Wisdom just yet ( remember Bryan LaHair) . But I would ride playing him while he is hot as far as they can. that’s right he is new now and other teams don’t have much of a read on him yet. It remains to be seen when opposing scouts have seen more of him if they make some adjustments in how they pitch him. Then see if he adjusts to that
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 3, 2021 18:23:37 GMT -5
The biggest need the Cubs have is a back-up catcher. Between, Wolters, Romine and Higgins, they are hitting a combined .102. The biggest need is starting pitching... I think that is obvious. I love that the Cubs have Stewart for depth, I think Thompson would do well in the rotation (as stated earlier, probably transition next year) but I don't have faith in Arrieta or Williams in a playoff game. Jake is a fine mentor but I don't have confidence in him being able to go out there and give us five innings.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 3, 2021 18:29:50 GMT -5
I really hope you are wrong about Alzolay because that guy just seems to get better and better with each outing.
I'm not surprised at all about him being in the rotation, he gives the rotation a different look (being that everyone else is low 90's) and they kept his pitch count down.
I will say the one person I'm surprised they haven't attempted to stretch out more is Keegan Thompson... Perhaps next season so he can develop a better feel for his tertiary pitches, he throws four really impressive pitches but lacks control and consistency with his 12/6 curve. His 4 seam/cutter and slider mix is pretty devastating, hitting low 90's on a slide piece with a late downward break.
They aren't really keeping Adbert's pitch count down. He averages 83 pitches per start. They probably planned on stretching out Thompson at some point, but he's been so good being used the way he is that i think plans may have changed. They are keeping his pitch count down.. it's more than just number of pitches thrown, it's that until recently they have not been allowing Alzolay to pitch in high leverage situations.
I don't forsee the Cubs stretching out Thompson unless they absolutely need him. I think it was evident when they brought Stewart in vs. allowing Thompson to start against the Padres.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 3, 2021 19:55:43 GMT -5
No doubt, this is going to be interesting. If Marisnick comes back and hits like he was hitting before the hamstring injury (which might be asking for a lot), you've gotta think that he displaces Happ in CF for the majority of the starts. Duffy and Hoerner also deserve to be in the starting lineup if they continue to hit like they did before hitting the IL. But so long as Wisdom is hitting like he is, he's gotta be in there some where, doesn't he? Heyward still hasn't done anything to impress me offensively, but will Ross really sit him on the bench? If Heyward has to play RF, then does that mean we see more of Bryant in CF with Wisdom at 3B and Duffy/Hoerner at 2B? Or Bryant in RF, Hoerner/Marisnick in CF, Duffy at 2B, and Wisdom at 3B? Probably not wise to think that all of Marisnick, Hoerner, and Duffy will come back hitting like the IL stint never happened. So chances are this will resolve itself. But definitely could be a dilemma if they all come back strong. It will work itself out. I'm sure somebody else will get injured and or get cold. Although he's been impressive and hitting the ball hard and getting great results I wouldn't exactly reserve a roster spot for Wisdom just yet ( remember Bryan LaHair) . But I would ride playing him while he is hot as far as they can. I would love for Wisdom to stick with the club because there’s a 97% chance we’ll need a 3rd baseman next year AND he was the Cardinals 1st round pick (comp) in the 2012 draft. I know he can’t keep putting up 0.5 WAR for every 24 at bats but if he could give us good D & a 1.5 to 2.5 WAR for no more than he makes we’ll take that all day long..
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2021 5:49:07 GMT -5
If we are still in it at the ASB, I would try to pry these 2 so bolster the O and starting pitching:
1. Max Scherzer - Incredible career for one of MLB´s best modern pitchers. He would become our #1 instantly and only be a rental so there is that. He is sporting his usual outstanding statline of 5-4 W/L, 2.22 ERA, 12 K9, 1.8 BB), and 2.1/2.2 WAR respectively on Fangraphs BB Ref. 2. Netel Marte - has been hitting lights out and plays great D.
Those are my choices if and only if we are still in the race come the ASB. Otherwise in the immortal words of Randall Duke "Sell, Sell, Sell!!"
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Post by foolforthecity on Jun 5, 2021 9:41:03 GMT -5
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 5, 2021 10:19:04 GMT -5
If we are still in it at the ASB, I would try to pry these 2 so bolster the O and starting pitching: 1. Max Scherzer - Incredible career for one of MLB´s best modern pitchers. He would become our #1 instantly and only be a rental so there is that. He is sporting his usual outstanding statline of 5-4 W/L, 2.22 ERA, 12 K9, 1.8 BB), and 2.1/2.2 WAR respectively on Fangraphs BB Ref. 2. Netel Marte - has been hitting lights out and plays great D. Those are my choices if and only if we are still in the race come the ASB. Otherwise in the immortal words of Randall Duke "Sell, Sell, Sell!!" The Diamondbacks have control over Marte thorough 2024.. I don't think the will trade him unless you want to deplete the entire farm system to get him.
If the Nationals decide to sell, Scherzer will be "the guy", more sought after than Bryant if the Cubs decide to sell. If I go down that road, and I have to give up an elite prospect, I'm going all in and trying to pry Trea Turner along with Scherzer. I love watching Baez but Turner would be a better fit into the line up that sorely needs a lead off hitter with elite, game changing speed. Also, the Nationals love velocity so they would, I assume, be very interested in Marquez (who I don't think will be anything more than an elite reliever) and most likely would be highly interested in Ryan Jensen.
As for Baez... I'd listen to offers and if nothing entices me enough to move him I'd slide him over to third. Think of the ridiculous infield defense with Baez, Turner, Hoerner and Rizzo...
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Post by lu13cubbie on Jun 5, 2021 11:01:48 GMT -5
If we are still in it at the ASB, I would try to pry these 2 so bolster the O and starting pitching: 1. Max Scherzer - Incredible career for one of MLB´s best modern pitchers. He would become our #1 instantly and only be a rental so there is that. He is sporting his usual outstanding statline of 5-4 W/L, 2.22 ERA, 12 K9, 1.8 BB), and 2.1/2.2 WAR respectively on Fangraphs BB Ref. 2. Netel Marte - has been hitting lights out and plays great D. Those are my choices if and only if we are still in the race come the ASB. Otherwise in the immortal words of Randall Duke "Sell, Sell, Sell!!" Isn't Scherzer owed a shit ton of money still ?
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