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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 7:51:20 GMT -5
It wouldn’t surprise me that Kimbrel gives more return. Closer is a highly specialized position. Kimbrel does have an option year and he seems to be back to his elite old self. Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on. I don't see why Kimbrel would not "keep it up " . He really only had issues because he missed that half season and didn't go through the normal prep and routine and then battled some injuries just when he would start to look sharp. The velocity is still there , he's hit 98 often and he's got his command and just as important his confidence back. His ERA since he put it all bacl together from the last month of last season Sept and including this season 0.66 and 46 strike outs in 27 innings
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Post by rvn11 on May 26, 2021 8:28:17 GMT -5
Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on. I don't see why Kimbrel would not "keep it up " . He really only had issues because he missed that half season and didn't go through the normal prep and routine and then battled some injuries just when he would start to look sharp. The velocity is still there , he's hit 98 often and he's got his command and just as important his confidence back. His ERA since he put it all bacl together from the last month of last season Sept and including this season 0.66 and 46 strike outs in 27 innings I'm not saying he couldn't keep it up, but in 2018 he struggled mightily down the stretch and in the playoffs. He's come back nicely, but any time a player struggles like that it can scare some teams off that he might be capable of doing it again, and after paying a high price. Any hiccup is magnified and exaggerated when teams would have to pay such a hefty price tag and it doesn't help that the margin between a good reliever and elite is razor thin.
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Post by woodysfilthy on May 26, 2021 8:31:39 GMT -5
I know I wrote a lot so it's easy to miss.... AT LEAST ONE TOP 100 and yes, both Rizzo and Baez are each worth one. Baez leads all short stops in RBI's and home runs, he strikes out a ton but he still does a ton of damage at the plate. And yes, Baez does have a lot of errors this year but he still is an elite defender at short stop.
Rizzo is an elite defender, good clubhouse guy and has quietly been hitting everything in sight lately. Like Joc today, he will start hitting for power soon. That is what Rizzo does, he strings together some base hits and then the power comes.
I read that as one top 100 per guy. Sorry This is a good hypothetical discussion but the Cubs are a half game out of first place right now, there won't be any selling if this continues, it will be more likely they try to bolster the rotation as it should be for a big market team in a pennant race. Nobody would sell in that scenario except maybe the white flags.
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Post by jerm42991 on May 26, 2021 8:38:10 GMT -5
I read that as one top 100 per guy. Sorry This is a good hypothetical discussion but the Cubs are a half game out of first place right now, there won't be any selling if this continues, it will be more likely they try to bolster the rotation as it should be for a big market team in a pennant race. Nobody would sell in that scenario except maybe the white flags. That would be a major mistake. It would be like the Royals a couple years ago who decided to give it 1 more run and got nothing for it. If we end this season with either just missing the playoffs or a first round exit and all we get are 3 comp picks, it was a major fail by the front office
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Post by fine09 on May 26, 2021 9:22:36 GMT -5
Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on. difficult decisions to be sure. Glad I don’t have to make them. We talk about extensions, but they are the same players we have lamented the lack of production for the last 3 years or more. Is this better production the past month the new reality or just an aberration and the last few years the reality. My biggest fear is we will do just enough to stand pat, sputter at the end again, then lose everyone for little or no return Exactly & that would be a tragedy which we can not afford if we like the idea of being competitive 4 out of every 5 years for the rest of whatever.. I personally believe that we MUST sell high on some of these guys because it is almost guaranteed that most of them will come back down to career norms and teams won't overpay for that.
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Post by fine09 on May 26, 2021 9:27:36 GMT -5
I hear you, but they desperately need a starting pitcher and I mean a really good one. It would be too hard to get one of those without giving up one of the key offensive guys needed to make a run. For that reason, i am leaning toward maximizing a return on these guys. I agree though it is hard to pass up another shot. that starting pitcher was exactly the key move I had in mind. A TOR guy would be hard to come by and not sure if that would even be enough I really don't think that would be close to enough to make a difference in the playoffs - unless it is Ohtani because we seriously lack TOR arms AND hitters as we saw the last few years. If I saw even a 10% chance at a very deep playoff run then I wouldn't be suggesting this sell high scenario but we are far away from that.
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 9:48:17 GMT -5
Cubs sign Dee Strange Gordon to minor league deal
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Post by fine09 on May 26, 2021 9:52:40 GMT -5
I don't see why Kimbrel would not "keep it up " . He really only had issues because he missed that half season and didn't go through the normal prep and routine and then battled some injuries just when he would start to look sharp. The velocity is still there , he's hit 98 often and he's got his command and just as important his confidence back. His ERA since he put it all bacl together from the last month of last season Sept and including this season 0.66 and 46 strike outs in 27 innings I'm not saying he couldn't keep it up, but in 2018 he struggled mightily down the stretch and in the playoffs. He's come back nicely, but any time a player struggles like that it can scare some teams off that he might be capable of doing it again, and after paying a high price. Any hiccup is magnified and exaggerated when teams would have to pay such a hefty price tag and it doesn't help that the margin between a good reliever and elite is razor thin. I agree with both you & Bat here. Kimbrel could very well keep this up but to me I don't want to rely on that taking place AND I want the biggest return that we can get which is why I am saying this now when we can offer teams 110 to 115 games of our soon to be free agents & not just 9 weeks like we received when we dealt for Chapman & also for Castellanos. We need the biggest bang for our buck that we can get because doing this sucks so let's do it as few times as possible..
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Post by TheChico on May 26, 2021 9:57:58 GMT -5
Cubs sign Dee Strange Gordon to minor league deal Nice depth signing, a contact hitter with some speed not the elite speed anymore but he can still put the ball in play. Rumors are that Hoerner will be heading to the IL and Rafael Ortega will be the callup not Alcantara, if that is the case, the plan is likely to move Bryant back to 3B, Bote to 2B and have Martini/Ortega patrol RF.
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 10:05:55 GMT -5
I don't see why Kimbrel would not "keep it up " . He really only had issues because he missed that half season and didn't go through the normal prep and routine and then battled some injuries just when he would start to look sharp. The velocity is still there , he's hit 98 often and he's got his command and just as important his confidence back. His ERA since he put it all bacl together from the last month of last season Sept and including this season 0.66 and 46 strike outs in 27 innings I'm not saying he couldn't keep it up, but in 2018 he struggled mightily down the stretch and in the playoffs. He's come back nicely, but any time a player struggles like that it can scare some teams off that he might be capable of doing it again, and after paying a high price. Any hiccup is magnified and exaggerated when teams would have to pay such a hefty price tag and it doesn't help that the margin between a good reliever and elite is razor thin. True , but we are talking about one of the greatest closers in the history of baseball having his mo-jo back. Not just a flavor of the month or a guy who came out of nowhere to have a good season. He also has a vesting option for 2022, that is now complicated because of last years shortened season so I'm not sure how it's going to work. Vest with 110 games finished across 2020/2021 & 55 games finished in 2021 & passes a physical
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 10:13:33 GMT -5
Cubs sign Dee Strange Gordon to minor league deal Nice depth signing, a contact hitter with some speed not the elite speed anymore but he can still put the ball in play. Rumors are that Hoerner will be heading to the IL and Rafael Ortega will be the callup not Alcantara, if that is the case, the plan is likely to move Bryant back to 3B, Bote to 2B and have Martini/Ortega patrol RF. Alcantara is out of options so when Nico returns he'd have to clear waivers to get sent back down and they'd probably lose him. Ortega will probably be up until they determine what Gordon has to offer. He'd been playing for the Brewers AAA team and hitting well up until he just got released when they traded for Adames .
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Post by TheChico on May 26, 2021 10:37:00 GMT -5
Nice depth signing, a contact hitter with some speed not the elite speed anymore but he can still put the ball in play. Rumors are that Hoerner will be heading to the IL and Rafael Ortega will be the callup not Alcantara, if that is the case, the plan is likely to move Bryant back to 3B, Bote to 2B and have Martini/Ortega patrol RF. Alcantara is out of options so when Nico returns he'd have to clear waivers to get sent back down and they'd probably lose him. Ortega will probably be up until they determine what Gordon has to offer. He'd been playing for the Brewers AAA team and hitting well up until he just got released when they traded for Adames . They will likely use the 34%% formula to determine Kimbrel Vesting option since 110/324 = 34%. So his finished game will likely be reduced to 76 games to meet the option and in 2020 and he only had 11 (18%) so he needs to finish 65 games this year to turn the team option to a vesting option. Not impossible but a major long shot. Also People have to take into consideration that is not not games pitched but games finished. Kimbrel option is likely going to be a team option, the Cubs are business first and they will make sure he does not make it or not on track by the deadline and use it as extra value if the Cubs do sell.
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Post by TheChico on May 26, 2021 10:46:46 GMT -5
Nice depth signing, a contact hitter with some speed not the elite speed anymore but he can still put the ball in play. Rumors are that Hoerner will be heading to the IL and Rafael Ortega will be the callup not Alcantara, if that is the case, the plan is likely to move Bryant back to 3B, Bote to 2B and have Martini/Ortega patrol RF. Alcantara is out of options so when Nico returns he'd have to clear waivers to get sent back down and they'd probably lose him. Ortega will probably be up until they determine what Gordon has to offer. He'd been playing for the Brewers AAA team and hitting well up until he just got released when they traded for Adames . Makes sense, ALcantara is needed if something happens to Javy, the Cubs have no real current back up option outside of Alcantara if Javy gets hurt. Guys like Bote/Sogard can finish a game at SS but should never be starting.
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 10:52:16 GMT -5
Alcantara is out of options so when Nico returns he'd have to clear waivers to get sent back down and they'd probably lose him. Ortega will probably be up until they determine what Gordon has to offer. He'd been playing for the Brewers AAA team and hitting well up until he just got released when they traded for Adames . They will likely use the 34%% formula to determine Kimbrel Vesting option since 110/324 = 34%. So his finished game will likely be reduced to 76 games to meet the option and in 2020 and he only had 11 (18%) so he needs to finish 65 games this year to turn the team option to a vesting option. Not impossible but a major long shot. Also People have to take into consideration that is not not games pitched but games finished. Kimbrel option is likely going to be a team option, the Cubs are business first and they will make sure he does not make it or not on track by the deadline and use it as extra value if the Cubs do sell. They are 47 games in and he's finished 16 . So about 1/3 of their games at this point , so if he keeps up that pace , yeah he will finish mid 50's and fall short of 65. But a heavier workload come playoff stretch could make it interesting. Say they stay in contention and don't sell and plan on being contenders in 2022 . With a shitload of other money coming off the books, do they want him around in 2022 for 16 million ?
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Post by TheChico on May 26, 2021 11:02:49 GMT -5
They will likely use the 34%% formula to determine Kimbrel Vesting option since 110/324 = 34%. So his finished game will likely be reduced to 76 games to meet the option and in 2020 and he only had 11 (18%) so he needs to finish 65 games this year to turn the team option to a vesting option. Not impossible but a major long shot. Also People have to take into consideration that is not not games pitched but games finished. Kimbrel option is likely going to be a team option, the Cubs are business first and they will make sure he does not make it or not on track by the deadline and use it as extra value if the Cubs do sell. They are 47 games in and he's finished 16 . So about 1/3 of their games at this point , so if he keeps up that pace , yeah he will finish mid 50's and fall short of 65. But a heavier workload come playoff stretch could make it interesting. Say they stay in contention and don't sell and plan on being contenders in 2022 . With a shitload of other money coming off the books, do they want him around in 2022 for 16 million ? You only keep him around for 2022 if you are contending and I just don't see how the Cubs can contend in 2022 at the moment, they are on pace for at least a retool unless Jed pulls some miracle out of his ass or the prospects in the lower level take a bigger than expected jump this year which is not likely due to 2020 missed season. So Kimbrel will likely be pitching somewhere else in 2022 even if the Cubs keep him after the deadline and pick up the team option.
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 11:17:19 GMT -5
They are 47 games in and he's finished 16 . So about 1/3 of their games at this point , so if he keeps up that pace , yeah he will finish mid 50's and fall short of 65. But a heavier workload come playoff stretch could make it interesting. Say they stay in contention and don't sell and plan on being contenders in 2022 . With a shitload of other money coming off the books, do they want him around in 2022 for 16 million ? You only keep him around for 2022 if you are contending and I just don't see how the Cubs can contend in 2022 at the moment, they are on pace for at least a retool unless Jed pulls some miracle out of his ass or the prospects in the lower level take a bigger than expected jump this year which is not likely due to 2020 missed season. So Kimbrel will likely be pitching somewhere else in 2022 even if the Cubs keep him after the deadline and pick up the team option. I don't know what to think anymore regarding the direction the team will go for the rest of this season and starting 2022 because there is SO MUCH that could change. There is only 58.125 million committed . Only Heyward, Hendricks and Bote are left on signed contracts and Contreras and Happ are the only ones who make decent money in arb years , so maybe add 16 million to that so they are around 75 with who is likely coming back . Maybe another 15-20 combined with all the other arb and yearly players. So under 100 pretty much any way you look at it. They could have almost an entire new team through free agency and if they trade off players in July.
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Post by irishcubfan on May 26, 2021 11:31:18 GMT -5
Cubs sign Dee Strange Gordon to minor league deal Nice depth signing, a contact hitter with some speed not the elite speed anymore but he can still put the ball in play. Rumors are that Hoerner will be heading to the IL and Rafael Ortega will be the callup not Alcantara, if that is the case, the plan is likely to move Bryant back to 3B, Bote to 2B and have Martini/Ortega patrol RF. He was much better as Dee Gordon. They should make it a requirement that he drop the Strange.
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Post by TheChico on May 26, 2021 11:39:46 GMT -5
You only keep him around for 2022 if you are contending and I just don't see how the Cubs can contend in 2022 at the moment, they are on pace for at least a retool unless Jed pulls some miracle out of his ass or the prospects in the lower level take a bigger than expected jump this year which is not likely due to 2020 missed season. So Kimbrel will likely be pitching somewhere else in 2022 even if the Cubs keep him after the deadline and pick up the team option. I don't know what to think anymore regarding the direction the team will go for the rest of this season and starting 2022 because there is SO MUCH that could change. There is only 58.125 million committed . Only Heyward, Hendricks and Bote are left on signed contracts and Contreras and Happ are the only ones who make decent money in arb years , so maybe add 16 million to that so they are around 75 with who is likely coming back . Maybe another 15-20 combined with all the other arb and yearly players. So under 100 pretty much any way you look at it. They could have almost an entire new team through free agency and if they trade off players in July. I do not really know either, the Cubs are going to be extremely active in the offseason one way or another by force. Cubs will be the most active but hopefully in a good way.
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Post by okeecub on May 26, 2021 12:15:52 GMT -5
that starting pitcher was exactly the key move I had in mind. A TOR guy would be hard to come by and not sure if that would even be enough I really don't think that would be close to enough to make a difference in the playoffs - unless it is Ohtani because we seriously lack TOR arms AND hitters as we saw the last few years. If I saw even a 10% chance at a very deep playoff run then I wouldn't be suggesting this sell high scenario but we are far away from that. At the very least we would need a very good contact/ high average hitter to go with TOR pitcher and I’m hard pressed to see that happening
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Post by okeecub on May 26, 2021 12:22:51 GMT -5
difficult decisions to be sure. Glad I don’t have to make them. We talk about extensions, but they are the same players we have lamented the lack of production for the last 3 years or more. Is this better production the past month the new reality or just an aberration and the last few years the reality. My biggest fear is we will do just enough to stand pat, sputter at the end again, then lose everyone for little or no return Exactly & that would be a tragedy which we can not afford if we like the idea of being competitive 4 out of every 5 years for the rest of whatever.. I personally believe that we MUST sell high on some of these guys because it is almost guaranteed that most of them will come back down to career norms and teams won't overpay for that. I’m afraid you are right about returning to career norm. A 3 year sample size is likely a better indicator than the past month. I hope this surge continues but it’s a matter of believing what the head knows what probably will happen and not what the heart wants to happen
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