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Post by C-Horse14 on May 25, 2021 16:16:44 GMT -5
Once guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are gone, the franchise will be in a malaise for years. Sure, maybe you can get lucky in a mid-season trade and get the next Gleyber Torres. Or you can get a big pile of nothing like the Cubs did when dumping Darvish's salary. The guy that I feel bad for is Hendricks. He's stuck here for 4 seasons unless he's traded.
BTW, does anybody really believe that as FAs Rizzo and Bryant would re-sign with the Cubs for less money? Maybe the Cubs can entice them with Dogecoin.
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Post by happtobehere on May 25, 2021 16:37:43 GMT -5
Once guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are gone, the franchise will be in a malaise for years. Sure, maybe you can get lucky in a mid-season trade and get the next Gleyber Torres. Or you can get a big pile of nothing like the Cubs did when dumping Darvish's salary. The guy that I feel bad for is Hendricks. He's stuck here for 4 seasons unless he's traded. BTW, does anybody really believe that as FAs Rizzo and Bryant would re-sign with the Cubs for less money? Maybe the Cubs can entice them with Dogecoin. I am so sick of hearing about how the Cubs didn't get anything for Darvish...
When the White Sox traded Tatis Jr. to the Padres he wasn't ranked in the top 100... he wasn't even ranked in the White Sox top 30 list! On the international scale when the White Sox signed him, he was 30.
Point being, don't complain about the Cubs haul of prospects in the Darvish trade just because none were ranked in the top 100. How about letting the kids play one single freaking season of A ball at the very least before saying the trade was a bust.
Perciado is getting Corey Seager comps... and the other three are highly regarded as well, Cassie has great power, Mena has blazing speed and Santana has shown a knack for getting on base, his first two seasons of pro ball getting on base better than 40% clip.
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Post by C-Horse14 on May 25, 2021 16:51:08 GMT -5
My point is that trading Bryant, Rizzo or whoever for prospects is extremely risky. Theo wanted to win a WS at all costs and he knew that he needed Chapman to do so. Maybe the quantity in the Darvish trade will pan out but none of those guys were even a top ten prospect within the SD system.
I'm just waiting to see what the standings look like as we near the trade deadline. If the Cubs are out of it, I'm all for trading stars. But I don't expect much in return.
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Post by happtobehere on May 25, 2021 17:19:48 GMT -5
My point is that trading Bryant, Rizzo or whoever for prospects is extremely risky. Theo wanted to win a WS at all costs and he knew that he needed Chapman to do so. Maybe the quantity in the Darvish trade will pan out but none of those guys were even a top ten prospect within the SD system. I'm just waiting to see what the standings look like as we near the trade deadline. If the Cubs are out of it, I'm all for trading stars. But I don't expect much in return. And my point is that neither was Tatis, nor was Hendricks a top 10 prospect in the Rangers system when we got him (but Mike Olt was).
All these people talk about how "prospects may not pan out" bs seem to forget that it was PROSPECTS panning out is the EXACT reason we won the World Series. Rizzo, Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Russell, Soler, Hendricks, Edwards, Montgomery ALL PROSPECTS. It was PROSPECTS and a deep farm that allowed us to trade for Chapman. Not to mention it is our PROSPECTS panning out for the White Sox with Cease and Jimenez.
It's laughable the argument, and not specifically directed at you, that you should trade proven players for prospects who may not pan out. The league is literally filled with prospects that did. The Nationals, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs and everyone else who have won a World Series have built the core from the farm system. Maybe one could argue the Yankees powerhouses in the 90's and early 00's BUT Posada, Jeter, Rivera, Cano, Williams, Soriano, El Douque, Pettite... all farm hands.
This isn't the steroid era baseball anymore... YOUTH is what matters. Average age of the Cubs World Series roster was what? 25 if not less than and the only reason it was pushed that high was the rotation... How about the Astros, Dodgers? Royals?
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Post by fine09 on May 25, 2021 18:50:41 GMT -5
I agree. And to be totally honest this team "Could" win the division & then although unlikely & (things have to go perfect) maybe squeak by Atlanta in the first round but I just cannot fathom a scenario where they could go farther than that. Even to get that far I believe NUMEROUS things have to go our way: JHEy has to hit like last year - KB has to continue his MVP type year - Rizzo has to pick it up at the plate - Baez has to cut down on K's - Willson has to stay healthy - Bote has to get hot - Duffy has to continue at his hottest ever pace at the plate - Kimbrel has to stay one of the best closers in baseball - Hendricks & Davies have to keep lowering their ERA's as the past few games - Arietta has to continue to over-perform & the BP guys have to keep pitching better than they ever have in their lives. That turn-around or continuation seems about as likely as the Tigers winning the AL Central which is why I am taking the position I have (and that I hate by the way). Let's re-tool the farm/younger players with TOP prospects & rookies that can help as soon as next year & set the team up for a good chance at success as opposed to go all in & get damn near nothing for our departing guys with the exception of KB who we might get a mid. 40 pick for.. The Cubs offense and bullpen are good enough for a post season run. Rizzo has been fine, Rizzo is being Rizzo. Baez isn't going to cut down on strike outs but he needs to start gathering more hits on the contact he makes. Bote doesn't have to "get hot" Bote shouldn't be starting on a regular basis.
Duffy and Nico have really helped balance the swing and miss of the line up. Rizzo always a professional at bat and Bryant is back being a tough out as well.
The issue is that the Cubs need two very good starting pitchers and one has to be Ace level like Scherzer and I don't think you can mortgage the future on that. Of course they could totally do that.
IMO, I would be SHOCKED if the Cubs held a fire sale at the deadline but my mouth does water at the potential.. Rizzo, Kimbrel, Bryant and Baez should all bring back at least one top 100 prospect but that isn't all, Pederson, if he continues hitting well could net a top 100... Winkler, Chafin, Tepera, Brothers would all be sought after and worthy of a solid prospect. Arrieta and Davies could bring back a solid prospect, even Marsinick, Duffy and Sogard will be sought after by a lot of competitive teams because contact is so rare. If you package some of these lesser but sought after names you could be looking at more top 100 guys... and that isn't even mentioning trading Contreras.
The Cubs could, in one season, go from middle of the pack, underrated farm system, to the best farm system in baseball with a deep free agent market and money to spend to make this team competitive next season.
You are SERIOUSLY undervaluing Kimbrel (top 2 closers in MLB & option at 16 mil for 2022) and KB (MVP season going on) if all you expect is a single top 100 prospect for each if we trade NOW with 110-115 games left.. Now I don’t know that Rizzo & Baez gets you a top 100 prospect unless you package them with one elite BP arm so you do exactly that. Kimbrel himself with the extra year of control is worth 85% of what we have for Chapman & God knows what a contender will pay for an MVP level player that can play 5 positions at “better than average” level but it might be like Kimbrel. Dream scenario is both to the Rays for Wander Franco the #1 MiLB Player which would require us to send 15 or 20 mil - so do it.. The Rays may win the title & the Cubs might have a Tatis type guy.. No good reason not to set ourselves up for years
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Post by fine09 on May 25, 2021 18:55:19 GMT -5
Sorry, but it's time for the "I told you so's". Two years ago, I suggested we trade Kris Bryant because he was dead set on free agency, turned down a Cubs extension offer, and really did not show any desire to stay here. The Cubs did nothing. Last offseason, I said that this was the LAST CHANCE to trade Bryant since the Cubs would be competitive this year, and it's next to near impossible to trade a great player when your team is competing for 1st place. Again, the Cubs did nothing. Sadly, Jed Hoyer has continued playing it safe as Epstein did before him. Not sure if an extension is a good deal? Wait till next year. Not sure if a trade is a good idea? Wait till next year. Hate to clue it in for you peeps, but waiting till next year sometimes closes down possibilities. Last off-season KB wouldn’t have have gotten you offers without the Cubs covering some of his 2021 salary with the year he had in 2020.. And who says they didn’t try??
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Post by fine09 on May 25, 2021 19:01:17 GMT -5
Once guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are gone, the franchise will be in a malaise for years. Sure, maybe you can get lucky in a mid-season trade and get the next Gleyber Torres. Or you can get a big pile of nothing like the Cubs did when dumping Darvish's salary. The guy that I feel bad for is Hendricks. He's stuck here for 4 seasons unless he's traded. BTW, does anybody really believe that as FAs Rizzo and Bryant would re-sign with the Cubs for less money? Maybe the Cubs can entice them with Dogecoin. You don’t have the slightest idea how those 4 nicely rated prospects that the Cubs got for Yu are going to turn out - nobody does. But they sure did sell high on him & got back 4 guys that all sit in our top #10 to #15 ranked prospects.. Only time will tell
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Post by GoCubsGo4ever on May 25, 2021 19:10:06 GMT -5
It wouldn’t surprise me that Kimbrel gives more return. Closer is a highly specialized position. Kimbrel does have an option year and he seems to be back to his elite old self.
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Post by GoCubsGo4ever on May 25, 2021 19:13:08 GMT -5
Once guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are gone, the franchise will be in a malaise for years. Sure, maybe you can get lucky in a mid-season trade and get the next Gleyber Torres. Or you can get a big pile of nothing like the Cubs did when dumping Darvish's salary. The guy that I feel bad for is Hendricks. He's stuck here for 4 seasons unless he's traded. BTW, does anybody really believe that as FAs Rizzo and Bryant would re-sign with the Cubs for less money? Maybe the Cubs can entice them with Dogecoin. You don’t have the slightest idea how those 4 nicely rated prospects that the Cubs got for Yu are going to turn out - nobody does. But they sure did sell high on him & got back 4 guys that all sit in our top #10 to #15 ranked prospects.. Only time will tell Agreed. Just because other teams hit a lottery doesn’t mean your fate will be the same. That shouldn’t be the way to evaluate a trade. The better way to evaluate a trade is: could they have gotten more in return? I don’t follow prospects from other teams as much so I am not qualified to answer the question.
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Post by threeandone on May 25, 2021 19:28:33 GMT -5
It wouldn’t surprise me that Kimbrel gives more return. Closer is a highly specialized position. Kimbrel does have an option year and he seems to be back to his elite old self. Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on.
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Post by okeecub on May 25, 2021 19:39:36 GMT -5
It wouldn’t surprise me that Kimbrel gives more return. Closer is a highly specialized position. Kimbrel does have an option year and he seems to be back to his elite old self. Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on. difficult decisions to be sure. Glad I don’t have to make them. We talk about extensions, but they are the same players we have lamented the lack of production for the last 3 years or more. Is this better production the past month the new reality or just an aberration and the last few years the reality. My biggest fear is we will do just enough to stand pat, sputter at the end again, then lose everyone for little or no return
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Post by threeandone on May 25, 2021 19:52:56 GMT -5
Yeah, Kimbrel is the big wild card here. We have seen it before, that closer position becomes a prime target if someone is willing to give up an elite one. Even if they have a good BP, teams know the value of having that shut down guy can be to put them over the top. That is exactly what the Cubs did and it paid off. The key of course is for Kimbrel to keep it up. The bigger issue is what do the Cubs do? Go for it or build for the future. They have guys that will likely walk that can build up the system, but this starting pitching will not cut it come playoff time and we know how dry bats can get in the playoffs against the great pitching they will face. I can see Arrieta with his veteran experience pulling an ace or two out off his hat in the playoffs and Hendricks knows the score, but Williams? Davies? It just isn't good enough. As has been stated here, a decision has to be made one way or the other on the direction while this season is still going on. difficult decisions to be sure. Glad I don’t have to make them. We talk about extensions, but they are the same players we have lamented the lack of production for the last 3 years or more. Is this better production the past month the new reality or just an aberration and the last few years the reality. My biggest fear is we will do just enough to stand pat, sputter at the end again, then lose everyone for little or no return Excellent points! I wouldn't want to be in Jeds shoes either. These same guys can all go cold as ice (or get injured) at the same time and for long stretches. I am kind of afraid you are right. We will have enough to make the playoffs and then 3 and out against a team better equipped for the playoffs. This is where ownership and the front office are going to have to shit or get off the pot and hopefully, pick a direction. Hard to do, but they have stood pat for several years now and are at the end of the road.
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Post by jerm42991 on May 25, 2021 19:58:26 GMT -5
I have been on the sell train all year so far due over half the team becoming free agents after this year. We are in late May and Cubs have their toughest month of the schedule coming up, if June is a success and Cubs are battling for first place then you owe it to the team and the fans to to contend instead. I just hope Hoyer does not do the whole not selling but not being buyers at the deadline move and stand pat. Either go all in or all out, there is nothing more annoying then taking the middle ground and if the Cubs miss the playoffs then you are stuck with nothing would be upsetting. I still sell. Otherwise they will end up where they were the last 3 years and either just miss or get bounced in the first round and then have nothing to show for it.
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Post by okeecub on May 25, 2021 20:03:06 GMT -5
difficult decisions to be sure. Glad I don’t have to make them. We talk about extensions, but they are the same players we have lamented the lack of production for the last 3 years or more. Is this better production the past month the new reality or just an aberration and the last few years the reality. My biggest fear is we will do just enough to stand pat, sputter at the end again, then lose everyone for little or no return Excellent points! I wouldn't want to be in Jeds shoes either. These same guys can all go cold as ice (or get injured) at the same time and for long stretches. I am kind of afraid you are right. We will have enough to make the playoffs and then 3 and out against a team better equipped for the playoffs. This is where ownership and the front office are going to have to shit or get off the pot and hopefully, pick a direction. Hard to do, but they have stood pat for several years now and are at the end of the road. I think by standing pat so long in some ways we have painted ourselves into a corner making our current situation more difficult. One day I think move some for prospects and the next I think maybe with some key moves at the deadline we have a chance to go deep into playoffs
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Post by threeandone on May 25, 2021 20:07:22 GMT -5
Excellent points! I wouldn't want to be in Jeds shoes either. These same guys can all go cold as ice (or get injured) at the same time and for long stretches. I am kind of afraid you are right. We will have enough to make the playoffs and then 3 and out against a team better equipped for the playoffs. This is where ownership and the front office are going to have to shit or get off the pot and hopefully, pick a direction. Hard to do, but they have stood pat for several years now and are at the end of the road. I think by standing pat so long in some ways we have painted ourselves into a corner making our current situation more difficult. One day I think move some for prospects and the next I think maybe with some key moves at the deadline we have a chance to go deep into playoffs I hear you, but they desperately need a starting pitcher and I mean a really good one. It would be too hard to get one of those without giving up one of the key offensive guys needed to make a run. For that reason, i am leaning toward maximizing a return on these guys. I agree though it is hard to pass up another shot.
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Post by Mike on May 25, 2021 20:08:27 GMT -5
With injuries running rampant around the league, I'd say that just staying healthy enough to win is half the battle (GI JOE).
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Post by okeecub on May 25, 2021 20:14:21 GMT -5
I think by standing pat so long in some ways we have painted ourselves into a corner making our current situation more difficult. One day I think move some for prospects and the next I think maybe with some key moves at the deadline we have a chance to go deep into playoffs I hear you, but they desperately need a starting pitcher and I mean a really good one. It would be too hard to get one of those without giving up one of the key offensive guys needed to make a run. For that reason, i am leaning toward maximizing a return on these guys. I agree though it is hard to pass up another shot. that starting pitcher was exactly the key move I had in mind. A TOR guy would be hard to come by and not sure if that would even be enough
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Post by happtobehere on May 25, 2021 20:23:25 GMT -5
The Cubs offense and bullpen are good enough for a post season run. Rizzo has been fine, Rizzo is being Rizzo. Baez isn't going to cut down on strike outs but he needs to start gathering more hits on the contact he makes. Bote doesn't have to "get hot" Bote shouldn't be starting on a regular basis.
Duffy and Nico have really helped balance the swing and miss of the line up. Rizzo always a professional at bat and Bryant is back being a tough out as well.
The issue is that the Cubs need two very good starting pitchers and one has to be Ace level like Scherzer and I don't think you can mortgage the future on that. Of course they could totally do that.
IMO, I would be SHOCKED if the Cubs held a fire sale at the deadline but my mouth does water at the potential.. Rizzo, Kimbrel, Bryant and Baez should all bring back at least one top 100 prospect but that isn't all, Pederson, if he continues hitting well could net a top 100... Winkler, Chafin, Tepera, Brothers would all be sought after and worthy of a solid prospect. Arrieta and Davies could bring back a solid prospect, even Marsinick, Duffy and Sogard will be sought after by a lot of competitive teams because contact is so rare. If you package some of these lesser but sought after names you could be looking at more top 100 guys... and that isn't even mentioning trading Contreras.
The Cubs could, in one season, go from middle of the pack, underrated farm system, to the best farm system in baseball with a deep free agent market and money to spend to make this team competitive next season.
You are SERIOUSLY undervaluing Kimbrel (top 2 closers in MLB & option at 16 mil for 2022) and KB (MVP season going on) if all you expect is a single top 100 prospect for each if we trade NOW with 110-115 games left.. Now I don’t know that Rizzo & Baez gets you a top 100 prospect unless you package them with one elite BP arm so you do exactly that. Kimbrel himself with the extra year of control is worth 85% of what we have for Chapman & God knows what a contender will pay for an MVP level player that can play 5 positions at “better than average” level but it might be like Kimbrel. Dream scenario is both to the Rays for Wander Franco the #1 MiLB Player which would require us to send 15 or 20 mil - so do it.. The Rays may win the title & the Cubs might have a Tatis type guy.. No good reason not to set ourselves up for years I know I wrote a lot so it's easy to miss.... AT LEAST ONE TOP 100 and yes, both Rizzo and Baez are each worth one. Baez leads all short stops in RBI's and home runs, he strikes out a ton but he still does a ton of damage at the plate. And yes, Baez does have a lot of errors this year but he still is an elite defender at short stop.
Rizzo is an elite defender, good clubhouse guy and has quietly been hitting everything in sight lately. Like Joc today, he will start hitting for power soon. That is what Rizzo does, he strings together some base hits and then the power comes.
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Post by fine09 on May 25, 2021 20:40:08 GMT -5
You are SERIOUSLY undervaluing Kimbrel (top 2 closers in MLB & option at 16 mil for 2022) and KB (MVP season going on) if all you expect is a single top 100 prospect for each if we trade NOW with 110-115 games left.. Now I don’t know that Rizzo & Baez gets you a top 100 prospect unless you package them with one elite BP arm so you do exactly that. Kimbrel himself with the extra year of control is worth 85% of what we have for Chapman & God knows what a contender will pay for an MVP level player that can play 5 positions at “better than average” level but it might be like Kimbrel. Dream scenario is both to the Rays for Wander Franco the #1 MiLB Player which would require us to send 15 or 20 mil - so do it.. The Rays may win the title & the Cubs might have a Tatis type guy.. No good reason not to set ourselves up for years I know I wrote a lot so it's easy to miss.... AT LEAST ONE TOP 100 and yes, both Rizzo and Baez are each worth one. Baez leads all short stops in RBI's and home runs, he strikes out a ton but he still does a ton of damage at the plate. And yes, Baez does have a lot of errors this year but he still is an elite defender at short stop.
Rizzo is an elite defender, good clubhouse guy and has quietly been hitting everything in sight lately. Like Joc today, he will start hitting for power soon. That is what Rizzo does, he strings together some base hits and then the power comes.
I read that as one top 100 per guy. Sorry
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Post by batman66 on May 26, 2021 7:41:38 GMT -5
Once guys like Rizzo, Bryant, Baez and Contreras are gone, the franchise will be in a malaise for years. Sure, maybe you can get lucky in a mid-season trade and get the next Gleyber Torres. Or you can get a big pile of nothing like the Cubs did when dumping Darvish's salary. The guy that I feel bad for is Hendricks. He's stuck here for 4 seasons unless he's traded. BTW, does anybody really believe that as FAs Rizzo and Bryant would re-sign with the Cubs for less money? Maybe the Cubs can entice them with Dogecoin. I am so sick of hearing about how the Cubs didn't get anything for Darvish...
When the White Sox traded Tatis Jr. to the Padres he wasn't ranked in the top 100... he wasn't even ranked in the White Sox top 30 list! On the international scale when the White Sox signed him, he was 30.
Point being, don't complain about the Cubs haul of prospects in the Darvish trade just because none were ranked in the top 100. How about letting the kids play one single freaking season of A ball at the very least before saying the trade was a bust.
Perciado is getting Corey Seager comps... and the other three are highly regarded as well, Cassie has great power, Mena has blazing speed and Santana has shown a knack for getting on base, his first two seasons of pro ball getting on base better than 40% clip.
I think the Cubs did well on the return for Darvish, especially since it was about getting out of his contract. Salary dumps don't usually get you a top return , example Cubs stealing Aramis Ramirez, Derrik Lee etc . They got some pretty highly regarded young talent that most were already ranked in what was baseballs strongest farm system before they even played a minor league game. My only probelm was other than one year of Davies, there really was no hope to see any of these guys helping the major league team for 3-4-5 years.
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