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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 8, 2021 19:20:09 GMT -5
You seem to quote a lot of steroid era players in your RBI percentage and hardly anyone from the current era of baseball. This is true, but I don't consider Arenado, Rendon, and Machado steroid era players - or Betts too for that matter. You're ignoring that Bryant has been a two hitter the majority of his career and not only accounts for RBI's but 100 plus runs scored (because he is great at running the bases and getting on base). At some point I just have to stop explaining what PA w/ RISP is. Some get it, some don't. I don't know what words are needed to explain it better. Sorry. Now see? That's funny! Percentage of PA's. A .333 hitter is going to have less hits than a .300 with 100 more AB's but he's still the .333 hitter, between the 2 A 40% RBI man is a 40% man whether he has more PA's or Less. Whether he has more RBI's of Less. Same with the 33% guy. He's still the 33 and the other guy is still the 40 no matter their accumulative total.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 19:24:21 GMT -5
You seem to quote a lot of steroid era players in your RBI percentage and hardly anyone from the current era of baseball. This is true, but I don't consider Arenado, Rendon, and Machado steroid era players - or Betts too for that matter. You're ignoring that Bryant has been a two hitter the majority of his career and not only accounts for RBI's but 100 plus runs scored (because he is great at running the bases and getting on base). At some point I just have to stop explaining what PA w/ RISP is. Some get it, some don't. I don't know what words are needed to explain it better. Sorry. Thanks for the lame attempt at an insult however I mentioned OBP and run scored because Bryant is excellent at getting on base with RISP and since he is excellent at running the bases and getting on base it equates to more runs for the Cubs. Some get it, some don't. I don't know what words are needed to explain it better.
You also claimed that Bryant isn't as good at driving in runs so that biases your opinion of his worth without taking into consideration he is very good at scoring runs. Runs produced is more important than only looking at RBI's.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 19:53:21 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract? Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for. For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate. To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position. Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers. When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP: Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33% That's the difference for me. When you look at other, recent big time contracts: Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34% And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising: Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35% Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list. Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window. When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance. So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position. So how many at bats does a typical batter with RISP... about 150. So Bryant at 33% vs. Rendon at 37% and you saying "Redon's contract appear(s) to be at least be decent" Equates to Rendon producing an average of 6 more RBI's a year, hell I'll give him an even 8. However, given Bryant is superior at running the bases, he equates to more runs scored. I feel it's pretty safe to say that between Rendon driving in a tad more and Bryant scoring more, their run production team wise is a wash. Rendon's "decent" contract is 35 million per season, argo Bryant at 35 million would also "be decent" but Bryant also carries more value due to him playing a multitude of positions so that "decent" contract shades to being "good" just by your OWN logic and opinion.
Glad we both agree on Bryant being worth a 7/245 million dollar deal.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 8, 2021 20:19:25 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract? Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for. For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate. To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position. Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers. When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP: Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33% That's the difference for me. When you look at other, recent big time contracts: Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34% And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising: Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35% Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list. Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window. When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance. So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position. So how many at bats does a typical batter with RISP... about 150. So Bryant at 33% vs. Rendon at 37% and you saying "Redon's contract appear(s) to be at least be decent" Equates to Rendon producing an average of 6 more RBI's a year, hell I'll give him an even 8. However, given Bryant is superior at running the bases, he equates to more runs scored. I feel it's pretty safe to say that between Rendon driving in a tad more and Bryant scoring more, their run production team wise is a wash. Rendon's "decent" contract is 35 million per season, argo Bryant at 35 million would also "be decent" but Bryant also carries more value due to him playing a multitude of positions so that "decent" contract shades to being "good" just by your OWN logic and opinion.
Glad we both agree on Bryant being worth a 7/245 million dollar deal.
Rendon signed his contract in 2020. His 2019 line slashed 117 R / 34 HR / 126 RBI (190+ PA-RISP) / .319 / .412 / .598 / 1.010His dominance carried that offense after Harper left to a World Championship. If he were to sign a contract at the end of this year, it wouldn't approach $35M. If somebody signs Bryant for the same money, in a post-covid, pre-MLBPA, it better not be us.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 21:24:07 GMT -5
So how many at bats does a typical batter with RISP... about 150. So Bryant at 33% vs. Rendon at 37% and you saying "Redon's contract appear(s) to be at least be decent" Equates to Rendon producing an average of 6 more RBI's a year, hell I'll give him an even 8. However, given Bryant is superior at running the bases, he equates to more runs scored. I feel it's pretty safe to say that between Rendon driving in a tad more and Bryant scoring more, their run production team wise is a wash. Rendon's "decent" contract is 35 million per season, argo Bryant at 35 million would also "be decent" but Bryant also carries more value due to him playing a multitude of positions so that "decent" contract shades to being "good" just by your OWN logic and opinion.
Glad we both agree on Bryant being worth a 7/245 million dollar deal.
Rendon signed his contract in 2020. His 2019 line slashed 117 R / 34 HR / 126 RBI (190+ PA-RISP) / .319 / .412 / .598 / 1.010His dominance carried that offense after Harper left to a World Championship. If he were to sign a contract at the end of this year, it wouldn't approach $35M. If somebody signs Bryant for the same money, in a post-covid, pre-MLBPA, it better not be us. If he put up the same triple slash line he absolutely would get 35 million.
Clearly, the Covid season did not effect free agent deals all that much, despite the middling talent, guys still got paid well.
I have a feeling that the players are going to win and win big in the collecting bargaining agreement. I predict players entering free agency a year early and less restrictions/penalties on free agent signings. I also think luxury tax thresholds will continue to increase.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 9, 2021 3:16:57 GMT -5
"If he put up the same triple slash line"...
Rendon: 117 R / 126 RBI / .319 / .598 / 1.010 / 86 K's Bryant - 155 Game Pace: 109 R / 103 RBI / .307 / .575 / .959 / 152 K's During our "June Swoon": 4 R / 2 RBI / .185 / .214 / .545 / 9 K's (199 K's - 155 Game Pace)
BTW: Bryant would have to play every game the rest of the season to reach 155 games. He currently is on pace to play 144. He's Homered 4 times in his last 31 Games. (20 HR / 76 RBI - 155 Game Pace)
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 9, 2021 8:22:27 GMT -5
"If he put up the same triple slash line"...Rendon: 117 R / 126 RBI / .319 / .598 / 1.010 / 86 K's Bryant - 155 Game Pace: 109 R / 103 RBI / .307 / .575 / .959 / 152 K's During our " June Swoon": 4 R / 2 RBI / .185 / .214 / .545 / 9 K's (199 K's - 155 Game Pace) BTW: Bryant would have to play every game the rest of the season to reach 155 games. He currently is on pace to play 144. He's Homered 4 times in his last 31 Games. (20 HR / 76 RBI - 155 Game Pace) You said, "If he were to sign a contract at the end of this year, it wouldn't approach $35M" referring to Rendon. Hence my comment, "If he put up the same triple slash line" referring to Rendon.
MOST GM's do not pay for single seasons, they pay for overall body of work and future performance. Bryant, bouncing back this year, is proving he is the 5+ WAR player he was early in his career and like Rendon, his overall body of work suggest he will continue to be a very good performer for a long time.
I love the "June Swoon" comment, like 7 games is impeccable to anything. He is one multi hit game from being right back to a .280-.290 BA for the month. That is beyond a micro-sample size. That is like implying Wisdom will hit 53 home runs this season.
During Baez's "June Swoon" he is hitting .087/.125/.217... is there a point to six game sample size?
Or How about Tatis .200/.259/.360
OH MY GOD EVERYONE FREAK OUT!!!!!Or simply do not use 6-7 games as an argument for anything.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 9, 2021 8:26:49 GMT -5
Also look at the OBP of the guys that hit in front of Arenado and that explains why his stats suggest that he is "clutch". As some others have stated, it's hard to drive in runs when the 2 guys that hit in front of you are sitting on the bench.. Again though, I'm only looking at plate appearances with runners in scoring position. It doesn't really matter if guys in front of Player A get on base at a better clip than Player B. When you compare plate appearances with runners in scoring positions for Player A vs. plate appearances with runners in scoring position for Player B - it takes out the equation of how well the players ahead of the player get on base. You can break it down even further if you want to, I just went with RISP because it's easy and is generally universally accepted (you don't see them - very often - break down a hitter with situations where a runner is on 1st and 3rd, they just say there's a runner in scoring position). With only second base occupied: Bryant - 279 PAs - 62 RBIs - 22.2% Arenado - 454 PAs - 104 RBIs - 22.9% Baez - 225 PAs - 40 RBIs - 17.7% With only third base occupied: Bryant - 85 PAs - 29 RBIs - 34% Arenado - 166 PAs - 79 RBIs - 47% Baez - 69 PAs - 36 RBIs - 52% With second and third occupied: Bryant - 74 PAs - 30 RBIs - 40% Arenado - 95 PAs - 49 RBIs - 51% Baez - 74 PAs - 48 RBIs - 64% First and second occupied: Bryant - 206 PAs - 52 RBIs - 25% Arenado - 355 PAs - 118 RBIs - 33% Baez - 235 PAs - 59 RBIs - 25% First and third occupied: Bryant - 105 PAs - 43 RBIs - 41% Arenado - 150 PAs - 115 RBIs - 76% Baez - 103 PAs - 53 RBIs - 51% Bases Loaded: Bryant - 68 PAs - 55 RBIs - 80% Arenado - 80 PAs - 62 RBIs - 77% Baez - 64 PAs - 50 RBIs - 78% Bryant beats Arenado with the bases loaded, but only by 3% - Arenado wipes the floor with him in most other situations. Bryant beats Baez when only second base is occupied (by 4.5%) and with the bases loaded (by 2%). And again, I'm not saying Baez is this big time RBI producer, but I'm saying Bryant's not really a run producer, at least not in his career. Do you really want to pay $35M/year for that? And again... Bryant could still turn into a big run producer. Maybe his future career reflects more on what he's done the first two months of this season, I'm not suggesting that's not possible. But past evidence doesn't support that. I don't know that KB turns into a bigger run producer, I just believe that Arenado turns into a much less run producer when you take him out of Coors for 50% of his games. Like I said, he's a very good player, just not what his old stats show.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 9, 2021 8:30:54 GMT -5
Arenado was 8 years at 32.5 AAV & not at all the same hitter taken away from Coors. His stats show this year that he's still a very good hitter but not at all Coors numbers.. 1) The Rockies agreed to eat $51M of Arenado's remaining contract. He had $199M left on his contract. And he signed for an extra year at a ridiculous rate ($15M), to bring the average even further down. So, the Cardinals are paying $163M for 7 years. (23.29) 'And if he opts out, the Rockies pay the buyout. And they get to defer and thus, pay even less (average) every year. He's a $17.5M hit on the Luxury Tax for these next 2 years. The Cardinals are paying $0 this year... $02) The 5 previous years before Covid (All of Bryant's years including his ROY & MVP) Arenado averaged over 15 HR and over 51 RBI's on the road. Bryant 12 & 39 (Injuries) Those are road numbers. Nothing to do with Coors. But it does have something to do with Dodger Stadium, SD & SF vs Cin, Mil and Pit. 3) In one of the greatest years (Coincidentally a contract year for a Boras client) Bryant has ever had, Arenado still drives in more runs. His numbers are normal, Bryant's are at an all time high. And Arenado is pulling away. The previous guy isn't talking about number of attempts. He's talking about % of RBI success in those given situations. Not how many situations. And it seems, that Bryant isn't as successful at driving in runs as the other Superstars in those situations. He just isn't. A big reason is because he strikes out. 4) The original argument (if you will) was would you trade for Arenado if the Rockies ate enough salary? You said no. Because he wouldn't produce. Even at the ridiculous rate the Cardinals are paying, you said he wasn't worth it. That you'd rather ride this Bryant thing out than take an 8 time GG, 4 time Platinum Glove, RBI machine for a low price, locked up for 7 years. You said he would be a failure for the money, even if it's as low as the Cardinals pay. 5 years #1 Assist 3B 5 years #1 P/O 3B 5 years #1 DP turned 3B 9 Consecutive years #1 Range Factor 3B So I ask you again. Then... No to $23M GG, PG, 50 Road RBI, 15 Road HR for the next 7 years. Allowing a Bryant trade for more assets (freeing up $20M) and thus... perhaps, influencing Baez' decision to extend (Arenado, Baez, Hoerner & Rizzo as teammates - think about it). But now... Yes to $35M for 7 years of Bryant and Boras? The man who specializes in fleecing Organizations and thus, decreasing our chances to sign our other FA's. That's what you would rather have? That's what you said, a few posts ago in this thread and back in the day, right? EDIT: This is a great discussion, BTW Arenado was more than worth the "bought down" deal. My problem was with his original deal which was a huge overpay in my eyes & messed up the actual market price for very good 3rd. basemen. Then again he's sure not the first guy to sign a higher deal that the market can actually support & I sure don't blame him for doing so.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 9, 2021 12:36:04 GMT -5
Again though, I'm only looking at plate appearances with runners in scoring position. It doesn't really matter if guys in front of Player A get on base at a better clip than Player B. When you compare plate appearances with runners in scoring positions for Player A vs. plate appearances with runners in scoring position for Player B - it takes out the equation of how well the players ahead of the player get on base. You can break it down even further if you want to, I just went with RISP because it's easy and is generally universally accepted (you don't see them - very often - break down a hitter with situations where a runner is on 1st and 3rd, they just say there's a runner in scoring position). With only second base occupied: Bryant - 279 PAs - 62 RBIs - 22.2% Arenado - 454 PAs - 104 RBIs - 22.9% Baez - 225 PAs - 40 RBIs - 17.7% With only third base occupied: Bryant - 85 PAs - 29 RBIs - 34% Arenado - 166 PAs - 79 RBIs - 47% Baez - 69 PAs - 36 RBIs - 52% With second and third occupied: Bryant - 74 PAs - 30 RBIs - 40% Arenado - 95 PAs - 49 RBIs - 51% Baez - 74 PAs - 48 RBIs - 64% First and second occupied: Bryant - 206 PAs - 52 RBIs - 25% Arenado - 355 PAs - 118 RBIs - 33% Baez - 235 PAs - 59 RBIs - 25% First and third occupied: Bryant - 105 PAs - 43 RBIs - 41% Arenado - 150 PAs - 115 RBIs - 76% Baez - 103 PAs - 53 RBIs - 51% Bases Loaded: Bryant - 68 PAs - 55 RBIs - 80% Arenado - 80 PAs - 62 RBIs - 77% Baez - 64 PAs - 50 RBIs - 78% Bryant beats Arenado with the bases loaded, but only by 3% - Arenado wipes the floor with him in most other situations. Bryant beats Baez when only second base is occupied (by 4.5%) and with the bases loaded (by 2%). And again, I'm not saying Baez is this big time RBI producer, but I'm saying Bryant's not really a run producer, at least not in his career. Do you really want to pay $35M/year for that? And again... Bryant could still turn into a big run producer. Maybe his future career reflects more on what he's done the first two months of this season, I'm not suggesting that's not possible. But past evidence doesn't support that. I don't know that KB turns into a bigger run producer, I just believe that Arenado turns into a much less run producer when you take him out of Coors for 50% of his games. Like I said, he's a very good player, just not what his old stats show. What constitutes "big run producer"?
In this day and age, RBI production (which is what cfin keeps talking about) is not consistent. Freddie Freeman is great, but he doesn't consistently put up 100 RBI seasons. Harper does not consistently put up 100 RBI seasons, Rendon isn't, Mike Trout doesn't, Not Yelich, JD Martinez... nope.
So what is a "big run producer" in peoples mind?
Lets take a quick consideration, 2019 is when "the Kris Bryant doesn't drive in runs" topic came into play. It was second time in 3 years failing to reach the 90+ RBI mark outside of his injury shortened 2018 season where he came back and was a completely different hitter unable to drive the ball...
2019, Bryant (per Cfin) produced an RBI at a 35% clip which in his opinion is perfectly acceptable. His RBI total is so low because he only had 125 plate appearances. Nolan Arenado by contrast, has never had a full season below 175 plate appearances with RISP. So if KB Produced at that 35% clip over 175 plate appearances he posts 62 RBI's vs. 44 RBI's for a grand total of 95 RBI's in which he would cease to be a guy that "doesn't drive in runs" that particular season.
Bryant actually only has 1 season where he reached 175 plate appearances with RISP which was his rookie year and he produced 99 RBI's and 36% clip for RISP.
Now back to my topic of base clogging....
In 2019, "Bryant doesn't drive in runs" he drove in 19 RBI's with a guy on first base... 19, 18 of those RBI's came off home runs... On top of that, he hit 9 doubles and out of those 9 doubles he produced 1 singular RBI. Last night as a prime example, KB scored easily, while standing up on a double by Rizzo. I would say, I good base runner should be able to score from first on 40% of doubles... certainly more than 11% of doubles.
Now if that bad base running translates across the board, runners on 3/1, 2/1 then it will have negative effects on his RBI % with RISP. Baring in mind, Cfin is arguing 3% in several cases.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 9, 2021 13:25:39 GMT -5
Something else that these percentages do not tell: Arenado in 2016 drove in 132 runs! Bryant in 2016 drove in 102 runs... no where near as impressive...
Arenado had 81 more base runners in scoring position than Bryant.... in just 27 more plate appearances.
So given the amount of base runners, Arenado drove in a highly impressive 39% of them. Kris Bryant drove in an equally impressive 40% of his.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 9, 2021 15:12:28 GMT -5
Something else that these percentages do not tell: Arenado in 2016 drove in 132 runs! Bryant in 2016 drove in 102 runs... no where near as impressive...
Arenado had 81 more base runners in scoring position than Bryant.... in just 27 more plate appearances.
So given the amount of base runners, Arenado drove in a highly impressive 39% of them. Kris Bryant drove in an equally impressive 40% of his.
And 2016 park adjusted stats: KB - OPS+ 146 NA - OPS+ 129 KB won the MVP that year going away with Arenado coming in a very respectable 5th.
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Post by zeke on Jun 9, 2021 18:41:46 GMT -5
Could someone tell me why Bryant required a day off today? I can understand resting a catcher or an injured player, but not your best hitter, especially when tomorrow is an off day.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 9, 2021 21:37:37 GMT -5
Could someone tell me why Bryant required a day off today? I can understand resting a catcher or an injured player, but not your best hitter, especially when tomorrow is an off day. Lots of managers prefer to give their guys two days off in a row when they can.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2021 6:23:20 GMT -5
Could someone tell me why Bryant required a day off today? I can understand resting a catcher or an injured player, but not your best hitter, especially when tomorrow is an off day. Lots of managers prefer to give their guys two days off in a row when they can. In your 7X235M scenario (or a little higher methinks) can you see Jed deffering money? Would you do it?
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Post by fine09 on Jun 10, 2021 7:37:08 GMT -5
Lots of managers prefer to give their guys two days off in a row when they can. In your 7X235M scenario (or a little higher methinks) can you see Jed deffering money? Would you do it? That would be near the top end that I would be comfortable offering but I'd still do it. He might accept deferred money but I don't know that the Cubs need to do that to make it work. The other thing is that I think Rizzo signs an extension if KB is locked up much easier than if he isn't.
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Post by batman66 on Jun 10, 2021 7:40:54 GMT -5
I don't know that KB turns into a bigger run producer, I just believe that Arenado turns into a much less run producer when you take him out of Coors for 50% of his games. Like I said, he's a very good player, just not what his old stats show. What constitutes "big run producer"?
In this day and age, RBI production (which is what cfin keeps talking about) is not consistent. Freddie Freeman is great, but he doesn't consistently put up 100 RBI seasons. Harper does not consistently put up 100 RBI seasons, Rendon isn't, Mike Trout doesn't, Not Yelich, JD Martinez... nope.
So what is a "big run producer" in peoples mind?
Lets take a quick consideration, 2019 is when "the Kris Bryant doesn't drive in runs" topic came into play. It was second time in 3 years failing to reach the 90+ RBI mark outside of his injury shortened 2018 season where he came back and was a completely different hitter unable to drive the ball...
2019, Bryant (per Cfin) produced an RBI at a 35% clip which in his opinion is perfectly acceptable. His RBI total is so low because he only had 125 plate appearances. Nolan Arenado by contrast, has never had a full season below 175 plate appearances with RISP. So if KB Produced at that 35% clip over 175 plate appearances he posts 62 RBI's vs. 44 RBI's for a grand total of 95 RBI's in which he would cease to be a guy that "doesn't drive in runs" that particular season.
Bryant actually only has 1 season where he reached 175 plate appearances with RISP which was his rookie year and he produced 99 RBI's and 36% clip for RISP.
Now back to my topic of base clogging....
In 2019, "Bryant doesn't drive in runs" he drove in 19 RBI's with a guy on first base... 19, 18 of those RBI's came off home runs... On top of that, he hit 9 doubles and out of those 9 doubles he produced 1 singular RBI. Last night as a prime example, KB scored easily, while standing up on a double by Rizzo. I would say, I good base runner should be able to score from first on 40% of doubles... certainly more than 11% of doubles.
Now if that bad base running translates across the board, runners on 3/1, 2/1 then it will have negative effects on his RBI % with RISP. Baring in mind, Cfin is arguing 3% in several cases.
You guys can argue all the stats you want until you are blue in the face. What might set them apart isn't the ability to drive in runs. It's those guys are pretty much strictly 3b, period. Although Rendon has played 2b before. A team can look at Bryant to be their everyday 3b, or LF, or CF, or RF, or 1B if they want or use him like the Cubs are. So teams who are set at 3b will still be going after him since he can play solid ball at those other positions and be that guy of they need him. And just knowing they can do what the Cubs did in case of an injury to an everyday guy , with him on your roster you have the option of sliding him over
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 10, 2021 13:20:41 GMT -5
Lots of managers prefer to give their guys two days off in a row when they can. In your 7X235M scenario (or a little higher methinks) can you see Jed deffering money? Would you do it? I came up with the original suggestion of 7/248 due to Rendon's contract.
Right now, I would take 7x235 but I think I would also want to tack on a player option of 10 million to make it a 8x245 which would drop his AAV to 30.6 million and how it's structured with deferrals or not doesn't matter to me. It only matters to the player and ownership. Deferrals is a "real money" decision based on a lot of different factors, if you are going to be very active next year in free agency, you may want to defer some or structure a back loaded deal. If you are predicting to be less active in free agency then maybe front load it so when you are more active and arbitration raises hit for some players you are not crunched with real money... if that makes sense.
I would think, with so much revenue lost to covid, you would want to back load deals/defer money to keep the current operating cost down. Ricketts didn't go that route, he went ahead and used a real operating cost for the year. i.e. no long back loaded deals or deferrals. His payroll cost what it cost (no hidden fees!) I think that was really smart because it does allow the Cubs, if they choose, to be more aggressive in free agency.
If I was ownership, I would be all about deferring as much money as possible even if that meant paying his daughter a million dollars a year for the rest of her life. Why not defer money like that since players always talk about wanting to provide for their family...
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Post by fine09 on Jun 10, 2021 13:58:18 GMT -5
What constitutes "big run producer"?
In this day and age, RBI production (which is what cfin keeps talking about) is not consistent. Freddie Freeman is great, but he doesn't consistently put up 100 RBI seasons. Harper does not consistently put up 100 RBI seasons, Rendon isn't, Mike Trout doesn't, Not Yelich, JD Martinez... nope.
So what is a "big run producer" in peoples mind?
Lets take a quick consideration, 2019 is when "the Kris Bryant doesn't drive in runs" topic came into play. It was second time in 3 years failing to reach the 90+ RBI mark outside of his injury shortened 2018 season where he came back and was a completely different hitter unable to drive the ball...
2019, Bryant (per Cfin) produced an RBI at a 35% clip which in his opinion is perfectly acceptable. His RBI total is so low because he only had 125 plate appearances. Nolan Arenado by contrast, has never had a full season below 175 plate appearances with RISP. So if KB Produced at that 35% clip over 175 plate appearances he posts 62 RBI's vs. 44 RBI's for a grand total of 95 RBI's in which he would cease to be a guy that "doesn't drive in runs" that particular season.
Bryant actually only has 1 season where he reached 175 plate appearances with RISP which was his rookie year and he produced 99 RBI's and 36% clip for RISP.
Now back to my topic of base clogging....
In 2019, "Bryant doesn't drive in runs" he drove in 19 RBI's with a guy on first base... 19, 18 of those RBI's came off home runs... On top of that, he hit 9 doubles and out of those 9 doubles he produced 1 singular RBI. Last night as a prime example, KB scored easily, while standing up on a double by Rizzo. I would say, I good base runner should be able to score from first on 40% of doubles... certainly more than 11% of doubles.
Now if that bad base running translates across the board, runners on 3/1, 2/1 then it will have negative effects on his RBI % with RISP. Baring in mind, Cfin is arguing 3% in several cases.
You guys can argue all the stats you want until you are blue in the face. What might set them apart isn't the ability to drive in runs. It's those guys are pretty much strictly 3b, period. Although Rendon has played 2b before. A team can look at Bryant to be their everyday 3b, or LF, or CF, or RF, or 1B if they want or use him like the Cubs are. So teams who are set at 3b will still be going after him since he can play solid ball at those other positions and be that guy of they need him. And just knowing they can do what the Cubs did in case of an injury to an everyday guy , with him on your roster you have the option of sliding him over Exactly right & also the reason that he is substantially more valuable than others. Even to the Cubs..
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