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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 12:36:33 GMT -5
Lets not forget though who has been in front of Kris Bryant the majority of his career... That's why you only consider plate appearances with runnners in scoring position. It takes out the "opportunities" aspect of straight RBIs. A plate appearance by Bryant with a runner on second is the same thing as a plate appearance by Baez with a runner on second. Bryant's had (numbers grabbed a couple of weeks ago) 813 plate appearances with runners in scoring position over his career. Baez has had 762. So Baez has had fewer plate apperances with runners in scoring position. But Baez has also driven in 283 runs in those 762 PAs. Bryant's only driven in 269. So when there are runners in scoring position, it's more likely that Baez is going to drive at least one of them in than Bryant. Are there discrepancies? Sure. Maybe Bryant's got slower runners on second than when Baez is at the plate. Maybe Baez has more runners on third with less than 2 out opportunities. You could dig deeper into these numbers. But RISP is generally understood to be universal. Could a player drive in a lot of runs when a runner's only on first because they are heavy slug? Sure. Could they hit more solo homeruns or homeruns with a runner on first? Sure. Those both help the team win. But runners in scoring position is really when you need to put pedal to the metal and I'd like to know that a player I'm paying big bucks to has a great chance of driving those runs in. Another thing to look at, you're only looking at RBI's. In 2019, (I use 2019 because KB didn't play much in 2018) Bryant drove in 77 but also scored 108 times. Baez drove in 85 and score 89 times. It's not just driving in runs, but producing runs. Runs scored is also an important stat when you consider scoring runs to help your team win. But they're harder to put into an equal opportunity scenario. Because then it really does matter who's hitting behind you. A guy can get on base 100% of the time, but if the 8 games behind him average a .190 OBP, he's not going to score many runs. That's not his fault, he got on base. Probably the best way to look at this is to see how many times a player puts himself in scoring position per plate appearance - but I don't know of any such statistic. I guess you could look at hits + walks - homeruns + stolen bases - caught stealing per plate appearance since that would give a reasonable idea of how many times a player has been on at least second base per plate appearance.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 12:46:42 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract? Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for. For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate. To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position. Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers. When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP: Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33% That's the difference for me. When you look at other, recent big time contracts: Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34% And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising: Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35% Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list. Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window. When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance. So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position. I enjoy looking at stats,
Baez has a reputation for being a "clutch" hitter but Bryant has actually out produced him in high (and medium) leverage situations.
Bryant has out produced him in meaningful RBI's (tie game, withing 1-2 runs). They are across the board in 2 out RBI's, with Baez driving in a couple more RBI's in late and close situations but Bryant hitting at a higher average, (as always, much higher OBP) and a more slugging)
The one area Baez has a significant advantage is a runner on third, Baez has out preformed him there across the board and has driven in 30 more runs.
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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 12:57:57 GMT -5
I'm not really suggesting that Baez is "better" than Bryant. I just thought the RBIs per PA w/ RISP percentages were surprising. I really would have thought Rizzo would have been on top.
The overall point I was trying to make is that I just don't see Bryant as a consistent run producer and that's why I have reservations about handing him a large contract. I'm afraid some people get caught up in the name and less so in the performance, much like Harper.
And again, Bryant's been outstanding this year at nearly 40%. I still don't know if I trust that he's suddenly figured out how to drive in runs when they're in scoring position, but maybe he's tweaked something and he really has. If he can drive in 40% of runs in scoring position throughout the life of a 7 to 10 year contract, then $35M/year may be a bargain. But that's just a hard sell for me.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 13:25:43 GMT -5
Apr .322 .412 .667 May .327 .400 .561 Jun .174 .208 .348 Deadline in 7 weeks, 3 days. $30 Mil for 7 years, for 1 guy? When you wouldn't even take Arenado for $24M? With a history of injury, when he was young? With our Pitching Staff in dire need? When somebody has to be gone, anyway? You guys are out of your mind. Arenado was 8 years at 32.5 AAV & not at all the same hitter taken away from Coors. His stats show this year that he's still a very good hitter but not at all Coors numbers..
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 13:29:08 GMT -5
Apr .322 .412 .667 May .327 .400 .561 Jun .174 .208 .348 Deadline in 7 weeks, 3 days. $30 Mil for 7 years, for 1 guy? When you wouldn't even take Arenado for $24M? With a history of injury, when he was young? With our Pitching Staff in dire need? When somebody has to be gone, anyway? You guys are out of your mind. After seeing this west coast trip so far, the time to trade Kris is here. I agree with the stipulation that if you can sign him then sign him & if not.. Trade both him & Kimbrel right now for 1/2 top prospects & 1/2 young very good MLB talent that can play right now. The trading team is going to hate to give that up but if you want to get the the final game then this is what it costs..
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 13:32:17 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract? Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for. For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate. To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position. Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers. When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP: Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33% That's the difference for me. When you look at other, recent big time contracts: Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34% And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising: Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35% Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list. Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window. When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance. So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position. Lets not forget though who has been in front of Kris Bryant the majority of his career...
2015-99 RBI's, 2016-102 RBI's 2017- despite having statically a better year thatn 2016, 73... why? And why has his RBI total not really reached his impressive triple stat line?
His RBI total is lower because of who got on base ahead of him. KB is a career .288/.393/.528/.921 with men on. I'm not looking at all the stats but I would think, 160 extra base hits would net more than 368 runs. Especially when 169 of them came in his first two seasons.... Why the sudden drop off? Because he had Dexter Fowler batting in front of him his first two years and Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist the majority of his past four. I.e. guys who could not score from first on a double.
For Bryant to be that RBI producer, we desperately need a guy who can A.) get on base and B.) run the bases well. Otherwise, you just see a lot of doubles with little to show for it. Or you see a lot of singles with a guy on second with little to show for those.
Now you mention Baez and say you're surprised, Baez has had the benefit of having Bryant, a career .381 OBP and an excellent runner and Rizzo (career .371 OBP and a bad base runner) batting in front of him.
Another thing to look at, you're only looking at RBI's. In 2019, (I use 2019 because KB didn't play much in 2018) Bryant drove in 77 but also scored 108 times. Baez drove in 85 and score 89 times. It's not just driving in runs, but producing runs.
The argument is Baez didn't have anyone to drive him in, well KB didn't really have anyone to drive in.
RISP: Baez 695 at bats, 176 hits, 33 doubles, 3 triples, 37 home runs 386 RBI's.
KB 655 at bats, 174 hits, 38 doubles, 0 triples 34 home runs 271 RBI's.
Baez triple slash .253 .304 .469 .773
KB triple slash .266 .387 .479 .866
You do not see a very significant variance in production, you see a significant one in RBI's despite KB hitting for a higher average, slugging more and getting on base significantly more. So is Bryant really worse at driving in runs than Baez? The answer is no! It's guys in front of Bryant are worse at scoring.
That is a very good post.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 13:35:10 GMT -5
I'm not really suggesting that Baez is "better" than Bryant. I just thought the RBIs per PA w/ RISP percentages were surprising. I really would have thought Rizzo would have been on top. The overall point I was trying to make is that I just don't see Bryant as a consistent run producer and that's why I have reservations about handing him a large contract. I'm afraid some people get caught up in the name and less so in the performance, much like Harper. And again, Bryant's been outstanding this year at nearly 40%. I still don't know if I trust that he's suddenly figured out how to drive in runs when they're in scoring position, but maybe he's tweaked something and he really has. If he can drive in 40% of runs in scoring position throughout the life of a 7 to 10 year contract, then $35M/year may be a bargain. But that's just a hard sell for me. Also look at the OBP of the guys that hit in front of Arenado and that explains why his stats suggest that he is "clutch". As some others have stated, it's hard to drive in runs when the 2 guys that hit in front of you are sitting on the bench..
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Post by Cubtastic on Jun 8, 2021 13:50:07 GMT -5
Here is the issue with resigning KB, as we have seen lately the Cubs starting pitching is not good, definitely not good enough to win a world series, probably not good enough to even get into the playoffs as I believe the Brewers will fly past the Cubs with their easy June schedule and considering the Cubs can't beat the Brewers. The Cubs need a rebuild and you can probably get a lot for KB. The Cubs are not a tweak or two away from being a title contender, they need to rebuild.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 14:04:03 GMT -5
Here is the issue with resigning KB, as we have seen lately the Cubs starting pitching is not good, definitely not good enough to win a world series, probably not good enough to even get into the playoffs as I believe the Brewers will fly past the Cubs with their easy June schedule and considering the Cubs can't beat the Brewers. The Cubs need a rebuild and you can probably get a lot for KB. The Cubs are not a tweak or two away from being a title contender, they need to rebuild. With the money off the books next year there really is no reason that the Cubs need a rebuild if they could sign 1 or 2 of these guys long term (my choice would be KB & Rizzo if affordable) and still deal away a few very good players to pick up very high prospects & young MLB talent. No, we probably aren't competing hard for a division & more next year but it's not off the table completely AND they should be competing hard for just that from 2023 to 2026 if they do make the trades.. A "Rebuild" to me is a 3 to 5 year process & that is just not on the table for a large market team like the Cubs.
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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 14:06:23 GMT -5
Also look at the OBP of the guys that hit in front of Arenado and that explains why his stats suggest that he is "clutch". As some others have stated, it's hard to drive in runs when the 2 guys that hit in front of you are sitting on the bench.. Again though, I'm only looking at plate appearances with runners in scoring position. It doesn't really matter if guys in front of Player A get on base at a better clip than Player B. When you compare plate appearances with runners in scoring positions for Player A vs. plate appearances with runners in scoring position for Player B - it takes out the equation of how well the players ahead of the player get on base. You can break it down even further if you want to, I just went with RISP because it's easy and is generally universally accepted (you don't see them - very often - break down a hitter with situations where a runner is on 1st and 3rd, they just say there's a runner in scoring position). With only second base occupied: Bryant - 279 PAs - 62 RBIs - 22.2% Arenado - 454 PAs - 104 RBIs - 22.9% Baez - 225 PAs - 40 RBIs - 17.7% With only third base occupied: Bryant - 85 PAs - 29 RBIs - 34% Arenado - 166 PAs - 79 RBIs - 47% Baez - 69 PAs - 36 RBIs - 52% With second and third occupied: Bryant - 74 PAs - 30 RBIs - 40% Arenado - 95 PAs - 49 RBIs - 51% Baez - 74 PAs - 48 RBIs - 64% First and second occupied: Bryant - 206 PAs - 52 RBIs - 25% Arenado - 355 PAs - 118 RBIs - 33% Baez - 235 PAs - 59 RBIs - 25% First and third occupied: Bryant - 105 PAs - 43 RBIs - 41% Arenado - 150 PAs - 115 RBIs - 76% Baez - 103 PAs - 53 RBIs - 51% Bases Loaded: Bryant - 68 PAs - 55 RBIs - 80% Arenado - 80 PAs - 62 RBIs - 77% Baez - 64 PAs - 50 RBIs - 78% Bryant beats Arenado with the bases loaded, but only by 3% - Arenado wipes the floor with him in most other situations. Bryant beats Baez when only second base is occupied (by 4.5%) and with the bases loaded (by 2%). And again, I'm not saying Baez is this big time RBI producer, but I'm saying Bryant's not really a run producer, at least not in his career. Do you really want to pay $35M/year for that? And again... Bryant could still turn into a big run producer. Maybe his future career reflects more on what he's done the first two months of this season, I'm not suggesting that's not possible. But past evidence doesn't support that.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 14:33:40 GMT -5
Here is the issue with resigning KB, as we have seen lately the Cubs starting pitching is not good, definitely not good enough to win a world series, probably not good enough to even get into the playoffs as I believe the Brewers will fly past the Cubs with their easy June schedule and considering the Cubs can't beat the Brewers. The Cubs need a rebuild and you can probably get a lot for KB. The Cubs are not a tweak or two away from being a title contender, they need to rebuild. As I stated in the past, you are not going to get what you think you're going to get for Bryant. One top 100 prospect is about it and it would most likely be in the 35-50 range.
Same with Baez, Rizzo and Kimbrel, those will most likely be guys in the 75-100 range.
If you expect "more" you have to what Hoyer did with Darvish and trade for a massive package of youth but they will not be ranked.
Most organizations in today's day of trading will not trade any of their top guys (top 2). You MAY get one to make an exception because Bryant fills a multitude of positions and can create a bidding war.
Regarding pitching, Alzolay's last start does not negate his previous 7 where he didn't allow more than three runs and for the most part has been pretty damn dominate. He is a serious rotation piece moving forward.
Also, with as bad as Alzolay was last night, that was still a winnable game before Abbot came in and allowed 3 to score. We've also been in reasonable position to win the majority of our losses despite our health situation. Some plays defensively did not get made that had one of normal starters been in would make.
It's funny the mood swings on this board, it's like Cajun Man saying "oh no! we suck again!"
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Post by Cubtastic on Jun 8, 2021 15:12:07 GMT -5
Here is the issue with resigning KB, as we have seen lately the Cubs starting pitching is not good, definitely not good enough to win a world series, probably not good enough to even get into the playoffs as I believe the Brewers will fly past the Cubs with their easy June schedule and considering the Cubs can't beat the Brewers. The Cubs need a rebuild and you can probably get a lot for KB. The Cubs are not a tweak or two away from being a title contender, they need to rebuild. As I stated in the past, you are not going to get what you think you're going to get for Bryant. One top 100 prospect is about it and it would most likely be in the 35-50 range.
Same with Baez, Rizzo and Kimbrel, those will most likely be guys in the 75-100 range.
If you expect "more" you have to what Hoyer did with Darvish and trade for a massive package of youth but they will not be ranked.
Most organizations in today's day of trading will not trade any of their top guys (top 2). You MAY get one to make an exception because Bryant fills a multitude of positions and can create a bidding war.
Regarding pitching, Alzolay's last start does not negate his previous 7 where he didn't allow more than three runs and for the most part has been pretty damn dominate. He is a serious rotation piece moving forward.
Also, with as bad as Alzolay was last night, that was still a winnable game before Abbot came in and allowed 3 to score. We've also been in reasonable position to win the majority of our losses despite our health situation. Some plays defensively did not get made that had one of normal starters been in would make.
It's funny the mood swings on this board, it's like Cajun Man saying "oh no! we suck again!"
again where is the starting pitching going to come from? I believe the Cubs do not have a starter with an era below four, bullpen's going 36 or 38 or 40 innings or whatever it was without giving up a run is not the norm and market correction will eventually happen, they're just not good enough.
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Post by Cubtastic on Jun 8, 2021 15:57:18 GMT -5
Here is the issue with resigning KB, as we have seen lately the Cubs starting pitching is not good, definitely not good enough to win a world series, probably not good enough to even get into the playoffs as I believe the Brewers will fly past the Cubs with their easy June schedule and considering the Cubs can't beat the Brewers. The Cubs need a rebuild and you can probably get a lot for KB. The Cubs are not a tweak or two away from being a title contender, they need to rebuild. As I stated in the past, you are not going to get what you think you're going to get for Bryant. One top 100 prospect is about it and it would most likely be in the 35-50 range.
Same with Baez, Rizzo and Kimbrel, those will most likely be guys in the 75-100 range.
If you expect "more" you have to what Hoyer did with Darvish and trade for a massive package of youth but they will not be ranked.
Most organizations in today's day of trading will not trade any of their top guys (top 2). You MAY get one to make an exception because Bryant fills a multitude of positions and can create a bidding war.
Regarding pitching, Alzolay's last start does not negate his previous 7 where he didn't allow more than three runs and for the most part has been pretty damn dominate. He is a serious rotation piece moving forward.
Also, with as bad as Alzolay was last night, that was still a winnable game before Abbot came in and allowed 3 to score. We've also been in reasonable position to win the majority of our losses despite our health situation. Some plays defensively did not get made that had one of normal starters been in would make.
It's funny the mood swings on this board, it's like Cajun Man saying "oh no! we suck again!"
Not saying Cubs suck, I've said their starting pitching isn't good enough, not by a long shot. They aren't good and they are wearing out the bullpen, they are screwed come mid August when these guys wear out.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 16:12:07 GMT -5
Also look at the OBP of the guys that hit in front of Arenado and that explains why his stats suggest that he is "clutch". As some others have stated, it's hard to drive in runs when the 2 guys that hit in front of you are sitting on the bench.. Again though, I'm only looking at plate appearances with runners in scoring position. It doesn't really matter if guys in front of Player A get on base at a better clip than Player B. When you compare plate appearances with runners in scoring positions for Player A vs. plate appearances with runners in scoring position for Player B - it takes out the equation of how well the players ahead of the player get on base. You can break it down even further if you want to, I just went with RISP because it's easy and is generally universally accepted (you don't see them - very often - break down a hitter with situations where a runner is on 1st and 3rd, they just say there's a runner in scoring position). With only second base occupied: Bryant - 279 PAs - 62 RBIs - 22.2% Arenado - 454 PAs - 104 RBIs - 22.9% Baez - 225 PAs - 40 RBIs - 17.7% With only third base occupied: Bryant - 85 PAs - 29 RBIs - 34% Arenado - 166 PAs - 79 RBIs - 47% Baez - 69 PAs - 36 RBIs - 52% With second and third occupied: Bryant - 74 PAs - 30 RBIs - 40% Arenado - 95 PAs - 49 RBIs - 51% Baez - 74 PAs - 48 RBIs - 64% First and second occupied: Bryant - 206 PAs - 52 RBIs - 25% Arenado - 355 PAs - 118 RBIs - 33% Baez - 235 PAs - 59 RBIs - 25% First and third occupied: Bryant - 105 PAs - 43 RBIs - 41% Arenado - 150 PAs - 115 RBIs - 76% Baez - 103 PAs - 53 RBIs - 51% Bases Loaded: Bryant - 68 PAs - 55 RBIs - 80% Arenado - 80 PAs - 62 RBIs - 77% Baez - 64 PAs - 50 RBIs - 78% Bryant beats Arenado with the bases loaded, but only by 3% - Arenado wipes the floor with him in most other situations. Bryant beats Baez when only second base is occupied (by 4.5%) and with the bases loaded (by 2%). And again, I'm not saying Baez is this big time RBI producer, but I'm saying Bryant's not really a run producer, at least not in his career. Do you really want to pay $35M/year for that? And again... Bryant could still turn into a big run producer. Maybe his future career reflects more on what he's done the first two months of this season, I'm not suggesting that's not possible. But past evidence doesn't support that. I'm a defender of Arenado but using him is a bad example.
I believe that Arenado's triple slash line will balance out outside of Coors but his RBI numbers are inflated. That park is huge! H-U-G-E! That means balls find a lot of holes, especially in the power alleys (Coors has extremely deep alleys) and the ball gets more run on it. Thats why a lot of the experts say, it's not the home run numbers that are largely inflated, it's the average and slugging % that is.
And I'm not saying Arenado will not be continue to be one of the more prolific RBI producers in the game. I am saying however, you can probably delete about 10% of that production if not a shade higher.
Also, the whole first and second, second a third etc is kind of a pointless endeavor. You really want to know how a player hits in leverage situations, RISP in the "clutch" and I'm interested in getting the run home when a player is on third with less than two outs because that shows situational hitting.
The reason I was comparing Javy and KB is because the numbers are so similar but the RBI production is not and it had a lot more to do with who was getting on in front of Bryant than him failing to produce. He was producing at the player at a higher level but the results were not there because of poor base running, guys who struggled scoring from first on a double or from second on a single vs. it being less of a concern for Javy.
2017 was a good showing with Schwarber/Zobrist leading off vs. Fowler. KB's run production went down 25% even though his numbers went up.
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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 16:48:40 GMT -5
Everybody's going to have their own opinions and a lot of people have those opinions etched in stone so much that no matter what you show them, you won't be able to change their opinion. And that's fine - this is a discussion board, that's what it's meant for. But that's the evidence of my opinion. I always felt like Bryant wasn't a big enough run producer for the name and potential dollars he was going to command and these numbers with RISP seem to show that. The numbers themselves don't really mean anything, but how they compare to others. Arenado always seemed like a big run producer for me, but sure, his numbers could be inflated by Coors. Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, and going back to the 90s a bit - Juan Gonzalez all seemed to be big run producers. When they were up at the plate with runners in scoring position you just had this feeling that they were going to drive them in. When you look at these players in RBIs per PA w/ RISP: Ramirez - 41% Ortiz - 38% Pujols - 40% Gonzalez - 42% That's where my baseline of 38 to 40 percent being ideal comes from. Bryant probably lines up mostly with Joey Votto, who comes in at 35% - so slightly better than Bryant. Votto got a 10 year $225M contract back in 2014 ($22.5M/year), contracts have gone up in the 8 years since and Bryant's got a lot more defensive versatility. I would probably max a Bryant contract out at $28M/year... MAYBE $30M/year although that would probably only be viable if the bidding was against another NL Central team and even then I'm not sure. Ideally I'd like to keep the contract at $25M/year. Anything more and you're looking at a Harper contract. And Harper's not a bad player. But does he contribute enough to the team to justify the contract that he's got?
EDIT: For some reason I thought Harper's contract was north of $30M/year - maybe my mind was somehow thinking of Rendon's contract. Harper's contract is right at $25M/year - so it's not horrible. Actually falls a bit more in line with what I'd say is right, still a bit of an overpay to me - but not absurdly. Doesn't really change any of the other numbers.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 8, 2021 17:58:16 GMT -5
Apr .322 .412 .667 May .327 .400 .561 Jun .174 .208 .348 Deadline in 7 weeks, 3 days. $30 Mil for 7 years, for 1 guy? When you wouldn't even take Arenado for $24M? With a history of injury, when he was young? With our Pitching Staff in dire need? When somebody has to be gone, anyway? You guys are out of your mind. Arenado was 8 years at 32.5 AAV & not at all the same hitter taken away from Coors. His stats show this year that he's still a very good hitter but not at all Coors numbers.. 1) The Rockies agreed to eat $51M of Arenado's remaining contract. He had $199M left on his contract. And he signed for an extra year at a ridiculous rate ($15M), to bring the average even further down. So, the Cardinals are paying $163M for 7 years. (23.29) 'And if he opts out, the Rockies pay the buyout. And they get to defer and thus, pay even less (average) every year. He's a $17.5M hit on the Luxury Tax for these next 2 years. The Cardinals are paying $0 this year... $02) The 5 previous years before Covid (All of Bryant's years including his ROY & MVP) Arenado averaged over 15 HR and over 51 RBI's on the road. Bryant 12 & 39 (Injuries) Those are road numbers. Nothing to do with Coors. But it does have something to do with Dodger Stadium, SD & SF vs Cin, Mil and Pit. 3) In one of the greatest years (Coincidentally a contract year for a Boras client) Bryant has ever had, Arenado still drives in more runs. His numbers are normal, Bryant's are at an all time high. And Arenado is pulling away. The previous guy isn't talking about number of attempts. He's talking about % of RBI success in those given situations. Not how many situations. And it seems, that Bryant isn't as successful at driving in runs as the other Superstars in those situations. He just isn't. A big reason is because he strikes out. 4) The original argument (if you will) was would you trade for Arenado if the Rockies ate enough salary? You said no. Because he wouldn't produce. Even at the ridiculous rate the Cardinals are paying, you said he wasn't worth it. That you'd rather ride this Bryant thing out than take an 8 time GG, 4 time Platinum Glove, RBI machine for a low price, locked up for 7 years. You said he would be a failure for the money, even if it's as low as the Cardinals pay. 5 years #1 Assist 3B 5 years #1 P/O 3B 5 years #1 DP turned 3B 9 Consecutive years #1 Range Factor 3B So I ask you again. Then... No to $23M GG, PG, 50 Road RBI, 15 Road HR for the next 7 years. Allowing a Bryant trade for more assets (freeing up $20M) and thus... perhaps, influencing Baez' decision to extend (Arenado, Baez, Hoerner & Rizzo as teammates - think about it). But now... Yes to $35M for 7 years of Bryant and Boras? The man who specializes in fleecing Organizations and thus, decreasing our chances to sign our other FA's. That's what you would rather have? That's what you said, a few posts ago in this thread and back in the day, right? EDIT: This is a great discussion, BTW
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 18:39:23 GMT -5
Everybody's going to have their own opinions and a lot of people have those opinions etched in stone so much that no matter what you show them, you won't be able to change their opinion. And that's fine - this is a discussion board, that's what it's meant for. But that's the evidence of my opinion. I always felt like Bryant wasn't a big enough run producer for the name and potential dollars he was going to command and these numbers with RISP seem to show that. The numbers themselves don't really mean anything, but how they compare to others. Arenado always seemed like a big run producer for me, but sure, his numbers could be inflated by Coors. Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, Albert Pujols, and going back to the 90s a bit - Juan Gonzalez all seemed to be big run producers. When they were up at the plate with runners in scoring position you just had this feeling that they were going to drive them in. When you look at these players in RBIs per PA w/ RISP: Ramirez - 41% Ortiz - 38% Pujols - 40% Gonzalez - 42% That's where my baseline of 38 to 40 percent being ideal comes from. Bryant probably lines up mostly with Joey Votto, who comes in at 35% - so slightly better than Bryant. Votto got a 10 year $225M contract back in 2014 ($22.5M/year), contracts have gone up in the 8 years since and Bryant's got a lot more defensive versatility. I would probably max a Bryant contract out at $28M/year... MAYBE $30M/year although that would probably only be viable if the bidding was against another NL Central team and even then I'm not sure. Ideally I'd like to keep the contract at $25M/year. Anything more and you're looking at a Harper contract. And Harper's not a bad player. But does he contribute enough to the team to justify the contract that he's got?
EDIT: For some reason I thought Harper's contract was north of $30M/year - maybe my mind was somehow thinking of Rendon's contract. Harper's contract is right at $25M/year - so it's not horrible. Actually falls a bit more in line with what I'd say is right, still a bit of an overpay to me - but not absurdly. Doesn't really change any of the other numbers.
You seem to quote a lot of steroid era players in your RBI percentage and hardly anyone from the current era of baseball.
You also completely disregard where a batter bats, plays and who is hitting in front of them.
Ramirez and Pujols are their generations best hitters. Plain and simple... Both stink of steroid suspicion also, as does Ortiz and Juan Gonzalez. So your baseline is horrible skewed.
You're ignoring that Bryant has been a two hitter the majority of his career and not only accounts for RBI's but 100 plus runs scored (because he is great at running the bases and getting on base).
If the Cubs had a guy who could score from first on doubles and from second on singles the way Fowler did (the way Jonny Damon did, the way Charlie Blackmon and LeMahieu did) then you would be looking at KB as a guy who drove in 100 RBI's four of his five full seasons vs. 2 of five.
As I said, the Baez comp is fair, Baez has over 100 more RBI's than Bryant in the same amount of at bat but he his hit less than Bryant. So you can easily come to the determination had the Cubs not been so cheap/stupid/arrogant in the line up construction, Bryant would have and should have 100 more career RBI's.
Not only has line up construction robbed KB of more RBI's, it's also robbed him of quality of pitches seen. Neither Schwarber or Zobrist (or really any other Cub outside of Baez) was a threat to advance/steal a base on balls in the dirt or steal a base in general. That also robbed Bryant of seeing more fastballs and mistake pitches then having a Blackmon, Damon, Acuna, hitting in front of him... Why? Because those guys are threats to steal and the pitcher has to alter his delivery, his timing, his stride, his plan.
Christian Yelich, career years in 2018 and 2019, why? Cheating? Perhaps but he also had Lorenzo Cain hitting in front of him who happens to be a fantastic base runner and a threat to steal bases.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 18:52:14 GMT -5
Arenado was 8 years at 32.5 AAV & not at all the same hitter taken away from Coors. His stats show this year that he's still a very good hitter but not at all Coors numbers.. 1) The Rockies agreed to eat $51M of Arenado's remaining contract. He had $199M left on his contract. And he signed for an extra year at a ridiculous rate ($15M), to bring the average even further down. So, the Cardinals are paying $163M for 7 years. (23.29) 'And if he opts out, the Rockies pay the buyout. And they get to defer and thus, pay even less (average) every year. He's a $17.5M hit on the Luxury Tax for these next 2 years. The Cardinals are paying $0 this year... $02) The 5 previous years before Covid (All of Bryant's years including his ROY & MVP) Arenado averaged over 15 HR and over 51 RBI's on the road. Bryant 12 & 39 (Injuries) Those are road numbers. Nothing to do with Coors. But it does have something to do with Dodger Stadium, SD & SF vs Cin, Mil and Pit. 3) In one of the greatest years (Coincidentally a contract year for a Boras client) Bryant has ever had, Arenado still drives in more runs. His numbers are normal, Bryant's are at an all time high. And Arenado is pulling away. The previous guy isn't talking about number of attempts. He's talking about % of RBI success in those given situations. Not how many situations. And it seems, that Bryant isn't as successful at driving in runs as the other Superstars in those situations. He just isn't. 4) The original argument (if you will) was would you trade for Arenado if the Rockies ate enough salary? You said no. Because he wouldn't produce. Even at the ridiculous rate the Cardinals are paying, you said he wasn't worth it. That you'd rather ride this Bryant thing out than take an 8 time GG, 4 time Platinum Glove, RBI machine for a low price, locked up for 7 years. You said he would be a failure for the money, even if it's as low as the Cardinals pay. 5 years #1 Assist 3B 5 years #1 P/O 3B 5 years #1 DP turned 3B 9 Consecutive years #1 Range Factor 3B So I ask you again. Then... No to $23M GG, PG, 50 Road RBI, 15 Road HR for the next 7 years. Allowing a Bryant trade for more assets (freeing up $20M) and thus... perhaps, influencing Baez' decision to extend (Arenado, Baez, Hoerner & Rizzo as teammates - think about it). But now... Yes to $35M for 7 years of Bryant and Boras? The man who specializes in fleecing Organizations. That's what you would rather have? That's what you said, a few posts ago in this thread and back in the day, right? EDIT: This is a great discussion, BTW A lot of people get really wrapped around the axle on "Coors Effect" without completely understanding it and/or understanding the player.
Generally, as a rule of thumb, I subtract 10% off of the mean.
Take Arenado, his last full season in Colorado, he was a .962 OPS x 10% = .865 OPS actual OPS so far this year = .855
You also have to adjust for park factors, + or -. Arenado is a power alley hitter, so had he went to Chicago vs. St Louis, you could most likely add 2-3% to that because he would have hit more home runs in Chicago vs. St. Louis (just using those two examples)
On the flip side, Trevor Story is more of a pull ball hitter, you could subtract a little over 10% if the Cubs were to sign him due to the fact we have deep wells.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 8, 2021 19:03:34 GMT -5
1) The Rockies agreed to eat $51M of Arenado's remaining contract. He had $199M left on his contract. And he signed for an extra year at a ridiculous rate ($15M), to bring the average even further down. So, the Cardinals are paying $163M for 7 years. (23.29) 'And if he opts out, the Rockies pay the buyout. And they get to defer and thus, pay even less (average) every year. He's a $17.5M hit on the Luxury Tax for these next 2 years. The Cardinals are paying $0 this year... $02) The 5 previous years before Covid (All of Bryant's years including his ROY & MVP) Arenado averaged over 15 HR and over 51 RBI's on the road. Bryant 12 & 39 (Injuries) Those are road numbers. Nothing to do with Coors. But it does have something to do with Dodger Stadium, SD & SF vs Cin, Mil and Pit. 3) In one of the greatest years (Coincidentally a contract year for a Boras client) Bryant has ever had, Arenado still drives in more runs. His numbers are normal, Bryant's are at an all time high. And Arenado is pulling away. The previous guy isn't talking about number of attempts. He's talking about % of RBI success in those given situations. Not how many situations. And it seems, that Bryant isn't as successful at driving in runs as the other Superstars in those situations. He just isn't. 4) The original argument (if you will) was would you trade for Arenado if the Rockies ate enough salary? You said no. Because he wouldn't produce. Even at the ridiculous rate the Cardinals are paying, you said he wasn't worth it. That you'd rather ride this Bryant thing out than take an 8 time GG, 4 time Platinum Glove, RBI machine for a low price, locked up for 7 years. You said he would be a failure for the money, even if it's as low as the Cardinals pay. 5 years #1 Assist 3B 5 years #1 P/O 3B 5 years #1 DP turned 3B 9 Consecutive years #1 Range Factor 3B So I ask you again. Then... No to $23M GG, PG, 50 Road RBI, 15 Road HR for the next 7 years. Allowing a Bryant trade for more assets (freeing up $20M) and thus... perhaps, influencing Baez' decision to extend (Arenado, Baez, Hoerner & Rizzo as teammates - think about it). But now... Yes to $35M for 7 years of Bryant and Boras? The man who specializes in fleecing Organizations. That's what you would rather have? That's what you said, a few posts ago in this thread and back in the day, right? EDIT: This is a great discussion, BTW A lot of people get really wrapped around the axle on "Coors Effect" without completely understanding it and/or understanding the player.
Generally, as a rule of thumb, I subtract 10% off of the mean.
Take Arenado, his last full season in Colorado, he was a .962 OPS x 10% = .865 OPS actual OPS so far this year = .855
You also have to adjust for park factors, + or -. Arenado is a power alley hitter, so had he went to Chicago vs. St Louis, you could most likely add 2-3% to that because he would have hit more home runs in Chicago vs. St. Louis (just using those two examples)
On the flip side, Trevor Story is more of a pull ball hitter, you could subtract a little over 10% if the Cubs were to sign him due to the fact we have deep wells.
That's cool. Take whatever number you want or the experts say. I'm talking defensive and Road HR & RBI numbers here because RBI were being discussed. What they don't account for is the effect of leaving Colorado & Coors and playing in thicker, more humid air. It's fuckin killer when you're not used to it. Even if you're a transplant, you normalize Colorado air. And, of course, Arenado isn't a rule of thumb Rockie.
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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 19:05:36 GMT -5
You seem to quote a lot of steroid era players in your RBI percentage and hardly anyone from the current era of baseball. This is true, but I don't consider Arenado, Rendon, and Machado steroid era players - or Betts too for that matter. You're ignoring that Bryant has been a two hitter the majority of his career and not only accounts for RBI's but 100 plus runs scored (because he is great at running the bases and getting on base). At some point I just have to stop explaining what PA w/ RISP is. Some get it, some don't. I don't know what words are needed to explain it better. Sorry.
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