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Post by happtobehere on Jun 4, 2021 14:33:19 GMT -5
Amazing what a couple months can do for a player in his contract year. Can you imagine if last year was his walk year? Be careful what you wish for Kris because if you would have won that grievance hearing you'd have been looking at a 1 year pillow contract for 2021 or a miniscule 3 year deal somewhere else.. If Bryant was in his walk year last season he still would have been looking at a 7-8 year deal in at least the 140-160 range. I would say, given his age and track record, 8/200
Only fans lost their minds on his 2020 season, thinking that less than sixty games, with no spring training, dealing with injuries so how defines who Kris Bryant is/was. Much like JD Davis who had a terrible year, did anyone that wasn't a Boston fan really believe that Davis forgot how to hit? Please.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 6, 2021 19:06:24 GMT -5
Can you imagine if last year was his walk year? Be careful what you wish for Kris because if you would have won that grievance hearing you'd have been looking at a 1 year pillow contract for 2021 or a miniscule 3 year deal somewhere else.. If Bryant was in his walk year last season he still would have been looking at a 7-8 year deal in at least the 140-160 range. I would say, given his age and track record, 8/200
Only fans lost their minds on his 2020 season, thinking that less than sixty games, with no spring training, dealing with injuries so how defines who Kris Bryant is/was. Much like JD Davis who had a terrible year, did anyone that wasn't a Boston fan really believe that Davis forgot how to hit? Please.
I think you are spot on with the 20 mil AAV if he would have been a FA but now he’s looking at 30% to 50% more for next year I’d think..
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Post by fine09 on Jun 6, 2021 19:08:15 GMT -5
Can you imagine if last year was his walk year? Be careful what you wish for Kris because if you would have won that grievance hearing you'd have been looking at a 1 year pillow contract for 2021 or a miniscule 3 year deal somewhere else.. It's like every time he has a good or bad game, you can add or subtract a million dollars from his next contract. The amount that he's worth is changing drastically based on his most recent performance. I think if he stays healthy & puts up his “normal” good year numbers he’s going to get paid very well, just as he should.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 6, 2021 19:09:26 GMT -5
If Bryant was in his walk year last season he still would have been looking at a 7-8 year deal in at least the 140-160 range. I would say, given his age and track record, 8/200
Only fans lost their minds on his 2020 season, thinking that less than sixty games, with no spring training, dealing with injuries so how defines who Kris Bryant is/was. Much like JD Davis who had a terrible year, did anyone that wasn't a Boston fan really believe that Davis forgot how to hit? Please.
I think you are spot on with the 20 mil AAV if he would have been a FA but now he’s looking at 30% to 50% more for next year I’d think.. He is probably looking at 35.5 x 7 right now.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 7, 2021 3:35:44 GMT -5
I think you are spot on with the 20 mil AAV if he would have been a FA but now he’s looking at 30% to 50% more for next year I’d think.. He is probably looking at 35.5 x 7 right now. Ewww, I don´t know about 7X35.5M. I think we should be safe and start with a 5 year bid. I don´t if KB is going to age well at all. I know he has position versatility but I would wait until at least the ASB to see if he keeps up the MVP candidate pace. If we do retain him it will be because we are still in the fight for either the division lead or a WC berth. Other than that he will make a great rental for some contender in mid July. I would try a 5/150M offer. That is fair and not peanuts or insulting.
Let´s see how the season pans out.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 7, 2021 7:14:25 GMT -5
He is probably looking at 35.5 x 7 right now. Ewww, I don´t know about 7X35.5M. I think we should be safe and start with a 5 year bid. I don´t if KB is going to age well at all. I know he has position versatility but I would wait until at least the ASB to see if he keeps up the MVP candidate pace. If we do retain him it will be because we are still in the fight for either the division lead or a WC berth. Other than that he will make a great rental for some contender in mid July. I would try a 5/150M offer. That is fair and not peanuts or insulting.
Let´s see how the season pans out.
Bryant is going to make slightly more than Anthony Rendon, that is just how baseball contracts work and Bryant is going to have no interest in taking an "under market" deal.
I have significantly less concerns about Bryant aging well vs. Baez for several reasons but here are some key points.
First of all is swing, KB's swing is significantly less violent than Baez. It's short, quick smooth vs. Javy who swings out of his shoes every pitch.
Baez certainly has the talent to play multiple positions but Bryant actually playing multiple positions gives him an edge longevity wise. Bryant has already spoken about how much better his legs feel playing in the outfield after games, having that option, to bounce KB to the outfield to "save his legs" is another slight edge in health.
Obvious reasons as to why I believe Bryant will age better offensively but lets look: Contact rate inside the zone 84% vs. 68% Chase rate 24% vs. 43% and of course, Bryant takes walks and gets on base nearly 40% of the time, Baez 30%
Now granted, this is a contract year for Bryant (but it's also a contract year for Baez) but Bryant has shown a willingness to put in the work during the off season and rework his swing to adapt to how pitchers are pitching him. Baez has not. He has shown zero willingness to change his approach at the plate. I'm very worried about Baez's chase rate and his ability to make contact outside of zone in 3-4 years. Also, I'm really concerned about Baez's inability to catch up to the fastball the past two years.
Truth be told, I'm much more comfortable giving Bryant a 7/210 million dollar deal than giving Baez a 6/120 because I just do not think Baez is going to provide positive value for the last three years of that contract where Bryant is going to provide more value through out the length of his deal.
With all that said, I don't know what drives Bryant. I'd really have to know more about him personally before I shelled out a massive money deal. Is he driven by being great? Is his biggest competition the guy in the mirror? Or is he simply motivated by money and once he lands that mega deal is he going to stop putting in the work? That is one of those intangibles that the team can best speculate on.
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Post by GoCubsGo4ever on Jun 7, 2021 7:36:44 GMT -5
In terms of skill sets: Bryant > Baez > Rizzo. In terms of attachment: Rizzo > Baez > Bryant. In terms of excitement: Baez > Bryant > Rizzo. In terms of cost (from cheaper to more expensive): Rizzo > Baez > Bryant.
I don't think the FO has good will to sign any of those, though. Personally, KB is the safest choice to hand out a mega contract, but there will be a lot of teams competing for his service.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 7, 2021 9:39:14 GMT -5
With the pending CBA expiring there could be quite a few players that would really like to get under a long term contract so you may be right especially if he doesn't like it here, but I think he might like it here. Just guessing though. He does need to get paid though & he picked a great time to get hot at the plate. We just need him to stay healthy. Amazing what a couple months can do for a player in his contract year. You mean career? Only 2 players have a higher fWAR than KB since 2015.... Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, there's that too.
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Post by GoCubsGo4ever on Jun 7, 2021 11:00:05 GMT -5
Amazing what a couple months can do for a player in his contract year. You mean career? Only 2 players have a higher fWAR than KB since 2015.... Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, so year, there's that too. KB only has 2 months of bad baseball (2020), where he had an OPS+ of 76. In all other years, he's have OPS+ of: 135, 146, 142, 121, 133, and 171 (this year so far). KB's has a career OPS+ of 136, which is almost identical to Betts who has a career OPS+ of 135. For comparison, in Javy's best year he had an OPS+ of 129 (2018). In terms of offense, KB is on a different level, and I think his defense is under-appreciated. I don't get why KB doesn't get more love. He also seems to be the nicest person in the world. Nonetheless, KB is going to be paid big time ($30M+ AAV maybe for 7-8 years). The question is which team is willing to break the bank for his service. I wish it was the Cubs, but I don't think the FO is willing to spend the money.
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Post by TheChico on Jun 7, 2021 13:04:00 GMT -5
You mean career? Only 2 players have a higher fWAR than KB since 2015.... Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, so year, there's that too. KB only has 2 months of bad baseball (2020), where he had an OPS+ of 76. In all other years, he's have OPS+ of: 135, 146, 142, 121, 133, and 171 (this year so far). KB's has a career OPS+ of 136, which is almost identical to Betts who has a career OPS+ of 135. For comparison, in Javy's best year he had an OPS+ of 129 (2018). In terms of offense, KB is on a different level, and I think his defense is under-appreciated. I don't get why KB doesn't get more love. He also seems to be the nicest person in the world. Nonetheless, KB is going to be paid big time ($30M+ AAV maybe for 7-8 years). The question is which team is willing to break the bank for his service. I wish it was the Cubs, but I don't think the FO is willing to spend the money. FO and ownership have no excuse to spend the money it will take to bring back Bryant, he is a franchise player you build around and still has many prime years left. Cubs will regret the day they let him walk in free agency.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Jun 7, 2021 14:29:03 GMT -5
Amazing what a couple months can do for a player in his contract year. You mean career? Only 2 players have a higher fWAR than KB since 2015.... Mike Trout and Mookie Betts, there's that too. His value has gone up significantly this season, because he's actually played to his ability and hasn't been hindered by injuries. He was unimpressive last year, and had a down 2018 as well, meaning that he was trending downward before this season. Now, he's fixed it and will make the type of Boras money that he was hoping for because he looks like less of a long-term gamble for a team to take on. If he were to have continued that downward trend and got injured again, his value would be half of what it is right now, so good for him. More millions to add to his stash. A lot has happened since 2015 in MLB, so I don't like using such a big sample size - the last 3 or 4 years should be more telling for players than the last 6.
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Post by windangit4life on Jun 7, 2021 14:45:55 GMT -5
KB only has 2 months of bad baseball (2020), where he had an OPS+ of 76. In all other years, he's have OPS+ of: 135, 146, 142, 121, 133, and 171 (this year so far). KB's has a career OPS+ of 136, which is almost identical to Betts who has a career OPS+ of 135. For comparison, in Javy's best year he had an OPS+ of 129 (2018). In terms of offense, KB is on a different level, and I think his defense is under-appreciated. I don't get why KB doesn't get more love. He also seems to be the nicest person in the world. Nonetheless, KB is going to be paid big time ($30M+ AAV maybe for 7-8 years). The question is which team is willing to break the bank for his service. I wish it was the Cubs, but I don't think the FO is willing to spend the money. FO and ownership have no excuse to spend the money it will take to bring back Bryant, he is a franchise player you build around and still has many prime years left. Cubs will regret the day they let him walk in free agency. Depends on what the goal is. If it's because we don't want him playing anywhere else, sure, pay him whatever he wants. The fact is that it is harder to build a team when you pay one guy a large percentage of what the total payroll is. Look at the Angels. They have the best player in baseball and have been to the playoffs once in 10 years.
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Post by fine09 on Jun 7, 2021 14:46:45 GMT -5
Ewww, I don´t know about 7X35.5M. I think we should be safe and start with a 5 year bid. I don´t if KB is going to age well at all. I know he has position versatility but I would wait until at least the ASB to see if he keeps up the MVP candidate pace. If we do retain him it will be because we are still in the fight for either the division lead or a WC berth. Other than that he will make a great rental for some contender in mid July. I would try a 5/150M offer. That is fair and not peanuts or insulting.
Let´s see how the season pans out.
Bryant is going to make slightly more than Anthony Rendon, that is just how baseball contracts work and Bryant is going to have no interest in taking an "under market" deal.
I have significantly less concerns about Bryant aging well vs. Baez for several reasons but here are some key points.
First of all is swing, KB's swing is significantly less violent than Baez. It's short, quick smooth vs. Javy who swings out of his shoes every pitch.
Baez certainly has the talent to play multiple positions but Bryant actually playing multiple positions gives him an edge longevity wise. Bryant has already spoken about how much better his legs feel playing in the outfield after games, having that option, to bounce KB to the outfield to "save his legs" is another slight edge in health.
Obvious reasons as to why I believe Bryant will age better offensively but lets look: Contact rate inside the zone 84% vs. 68% Chase rate 24% vs. 43% and of course, Bryant takes walks and gets on base nearly 40% of the time, Baez 30%
Now granted, this is a contract year for Bryant (but it's also a contract year for Baez) but Bryant has shown a willingness to put in the work during the off season and rework his swing to adapt to how pitchers are pitching him. Baez has not. He has shown zero willingness to change his approach at the plate. I'm very worried about Baez's chase rate and his ability to make contact outside of zone in 3-4 years. Also, I'm really concerned about Baez's inability to catch up to the fastball the past two years.
Truth be told, I'm much more comfortable giving Bryant a 7/210 million dollar deal than giving Baez a 6/120 because I just do not think Baez is going to provide positive value for the last three years of that contract where Bryant is going to provide more value through out the length of his deal.
With all that said, I don't know what drives Bryant. I'd really have to know more about him personally before I shelled out a massive money deal. Is he driven by being great? Is his biggest competition the guy in the mirror? Or is he simply motivated by money and once he lands that mega deal is he going to stop putting in the work? That is one of those intangibles that the team can best speculate on.
If he would take a 7 year 210 mil deal I would offer that in a heartbeat. Even if he is hurt for 5 or 6 total months you would still get 36 or 37 "good" months from him & that would be a very good deal..
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 7, 2021 16:59:32 GMT -5
Bryant is going to make slightly more than Anthony Rendon, that is just how baseball contracts work and Bryant is going to have no interest in taking an "under market" deal.
I have significantly less concerns about Bryant aging well vs. Baez for several reasons but here are some key points.
First of all is swing, KB's swing is significantly less violent than Baez. It's short, quick smooth vs. Javy who swings out of his shoes every pitch.
Baez certainly has the talent to play multiple positions but Bryant actually playing multiple positions gives him an edge longevity wise. Bryant has already spoken about how much better his legs feel playing in the outfield after games, having that option, to bounce KB to the outfield to "save his legs" is another slight edge in health.
Obvious reasons as to why I believe Bryant will age better offensively but lets look: Contact rate inside the zone 84% vs. 68% Chase rate 24% vs. 43% and of course, Bryant takes walks and gets on base nearly 40% of the time, Baez 30%
Now granted, this is a contract year for Bryant (but it's also a contract year for Baez) but Bryant has shown a willingness to put in the work during the off season and rework his swing to adapt to how pitchers are pitching him. Baez has not. He has shown zero willingness to change his approach at the plate. I'm very worried about Baez's chase rate and his ability to make contact outside of zone in 3-4 years. Also, I'm really concerned about Baez's inability to catch up to the fastball the past two years.
Truth be told, I'm much more comfortable giving Bryant a 7/210 million dollar deal than giving Baez a 6/120 because I just do not think Baez is going to provide positive value for the last three years of that contract where Bryant is going to provide more value through out the length of his deal.
With all that said, I don't know what drives Bryant. I'd really have to know more about him personally before I shelled out a massive money deal. Is he driven by being great? Is his biggest competition the guy in the mirror? Or is he simply motivated by money and once he lands that mega deal is he going to stop putting in the work? That is one of those intangibles that the team can best speculate on.
If he would take a 7 year 210 mil deal I would offer that in a heartbeat. Even if he is hurt for 5 or 6 total months you would still get 36 or 37 "good" months from him & that would be a very good deal.. Funny, after 2019, Bryant had a "down" season, I said work out the arbitration number then offer him 8/235 and everyone one said "wait and see" "he is declining" blah blah blah.
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Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jun 8, 2021 9:42:40 GMT -5
Bryant said he and Rizzo are going to do a combo pitch to the Cubs brass, like "Step Brothers". HA! That's funny, can you imagine KB and Rizzo presenting a video to Jed and Tom, "BOATS AND HOES" haha
KB quote: "We got our pitch. It's like 'Step Brothers'. We got to go in and get the job."
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Post by fine09 on Jun 8, 2021 10:14:25 GMT -5
If he would take a 7 year 210 mil deal I would offer that in a heartbeat. Even if he is hurt for 5 or 6 total months you would still get 36 or 37 "good" months from him & that would be a very good deal.. Funny, after 2019, Bryant had a "down" season, I said work out the arbitration number then offer him 8/235 and everyone one said "wait and see" "he is declining" blah blah blah. 2019 KB had a .903 OPS with a 133 OPS+ & you considered that a down year? I consider 2020 a seriously down year & if you had said to offer him 8/235 this past offseason I would have said let's wait & see too.
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Post by 2mileshighillini on Jun 8, 2021 10:17:21 GMT -5
Apr .322 .412 .667 May .327 .400 .561 Jun .174 .208 .348
Deadline in 7 weeks, 3 days. $30 Mil for 7 years, for 1 guy? When you wouldn't even take Arenado for $24M? With a history of injury, when he was young? With our Pitching Staff in dire need? When somebody has to be gone, anyway? You guys are out of your mind.
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Post by skokiejoe on Jun 8, 2021 10:34:25 GMT -5
Apr .322 .412 .667 May .327 .400 .561 Jun .174 .208 .348 Deadline in 7 weeks, 3 days. $30 Mil for 7 years, for 1 guy? When you wouldn't even take Arenado for $24M? With a history of injury, when he was young? With our Pitching Staff in dire need? When somebody has to be gone, anyway? You guys are out of your mind. After seeing this west coast trip so far, the time to trade Kris is here.
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Post by cfin on Jun 8, 2021 11:01:10 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract?
Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for.
For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate.
To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position.
Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers.
When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP:
Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33%
That's the difference for me.
When you look at other, recent big time contracts:
Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34%
And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising:
Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35%
Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list.
Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window.
When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance.
So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position.
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Post by happtobehere on Jun 8, 2021 12:06:45 GMT -5
What qualities are important for an offensive player that's making big bucks on a contract? Is it just OPS? Is that all we look for. For me - and I may be the only one that feels this way - but I still see the ability to score and drive in runs as the key part of winning ball games. Ball games aren't won by how many doubles you hit, or how many walks you take, or how many homeruns you hit. It's about how many runs cross home plate. To that end, if I'm going to pay big bucks to someone, I want to know that if there are runs sitting out there in scoring position then this big bucks guy is going to drive them in. And sad to say, but that's just not something I feel when Bryant is up with runners in scoring position. Now granted, Bryant's done an outstanding job in this situation this year so far. But 2 great months doesn't really erase career numbers. When I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and looking at Arenado vs. Bryant (granted... Arenado played in Coors, did that have an affect? Certainly possible). I've always felt that Arenado was a real run producer. Guys in scoring position, he's likely going to get them in. Over their careers, their RBIs per Plate Appearance with RISP: Arenado - 40% Bryant - 33% That's the difference for me. When you look at other, recent big time contracts: Betts - 40% Harper - 32% Lindor - 31% Machado - 38% Rendon - 37% Stanton - 34% And when you look at current Cubs ... this was a bit surprising: Baez - 37% Contreras - 36% Happ - 32% Heyward - 30% Rizzo - 35% Surprising in that Baez is tops on the list. Also probably speaks a bit to the Cubs inability to score runs in recent years - they lack that one guy that can drive in runs from scoring position in the 38 to 40 percent of the time window. When I look at that list of big contract and how they perform - the Harper contract I always thought was bad, it was more of signing a name than signing performance. Stanton's contract has also largely been viewed as poor. Certainly Heyward's contract is an albatross. Lindor's contract certainly looks like an overpay. Betts and Machado and even Rendon's contract all appear to be at least decent for their performance. So that's why I would be reluctant to pay Bryant big time money. Is RBIs per PA with RISP the be all and end all of statistics that matter? No. Versatility, and certainly OBP and SLG play a role in this too. But still I just have a hard time wrapping my head around paying someone big money if they can't consistently drive in runs when they're in scoring position. Lets not forget though who has been in front of Kris Bryant the majority of his career...
2015-99 RBI's, 2016-102 RBI's 2017- despite having statically a better year thatn 2016, 73... why? And why has his RBI total not really reached his impressive triple stat line?
His RBI total is lower because of who got on base ahead of him. KB is a career .288/.393/.528/.921 with men on. I'm not looking at all the stats but I would think, 160 extra base hits would net more than 368 runs. Especially when 169 of them came in his first two seasons.... Why the sudden drop off? Because he had Dexter Fowler batting in front of him his first two years and Kyle Schwarber and Ben Zobrist the majority of his past four. I.e. guys who could not score from first on a double.
For Bryant to be that RBI producer, we desperately need a guy who can A.) get on base and B.) run the bases well. Otherwise, you just see a lot of doubles with little to show for it. Or you see a lot of singles with a guy on second with little to show for those.
Now you mention Baez and say you're surprised, Baez has had the benefit of having Bryant, a career .381 OBP and an excellent runner and Rizzo (career .371 OBP and a bad base runner) batting in front of him.
Another thing to look at, you're only looking at RBI's. In 2019, (I use 2019 because KB didn't play much in 2018) Bryant drove in 77 but also scored 108 times. Baez drove in 85 and score 89 times. It's not just driving in runs, but producing runs.
The argument is Baez didn't have anyone to drive him in, well KB didn't really have anyone to drive in.
RISP: Baez 695 at bats, 176 hits, 33 doubles, 3 triples, 37 home runs 386 RBI's.
KB 655 at bats, 174 hits, 38 doubles, 0 triples 34 home runs 271 RBI's.
Baez triple slash .253 .304 .469 .773
KB triple slash .266 .387 .479 .866
You do not see a very significant variance in production, you see a significant one in RBI's despite KB hitting for a higher average, slugging more and getting on base significantly more. So is Bryant really worse at driving in runs than Baez? The answer is no! It's guys in front of Bryant are worse at scoring.
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