|
Post by batman66 on Jul 13, 2020 10:24:31 GMT -5
I think Javy is still priority #1. Hernandez and IMO Howard are probably now 6-7 years away. Howard didn't play his senior year and with no minor league season this year he's still going to be behind. If Javy signed an 8 year extension, by the time any of those guys are ready, if Javy is still very productive, he can always move back to 2b. Just listening to Boras, I can't see any of this clients excepting the reasoning that players should just sign "COVID" extensions. I don't know about 6-7 years away. Howard right now could play major league shortstop , it's just a question of his bat. I could see him in the majors in 3-4 years Hernandez from what I read is a manchild and I could see him taking a similar path of Machado and being in the majors at age 20-21.
|
|
|
Post by batman66 on Jul 13, 2020 10:25:59 GMT -5
Well Happ would be a legit option at 1b and if they somehow can keep Bryant he would be too. Move KB to 1b, Baez to 3b when Howard is ready. Caratini is also an option when the catching picture could get more cluttered.. Like I said, the Cubs are better off just extending Rizzo and keeping him at 1B. I think Rizzo would probably be realistic about what an extension would look like for him at age 32. I totally agree, just saying they already have other solid options but Rizzo is the glue to this team and we know both Jed and Theo love the guy
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 13, 2020 10:40:47 GMT -5
I think Javy is still priority #1. Hernandez and IMO Howard are probably now 6-7 years away. Howard didn't play his senior year and with no minor league season this year he's still going to be behind. If Javy signed an 8 year extension, by the time any of those guys are ready, if Javy is still very productive, he can always move back to 2b. Just listening to Boras, I can't see any of this clients excepting the reasoning that players should just sign "COVID" extensions. I don't know about 6-7 years away. Howard right now could play major league shortstop , it's just a question of his bat. I could see him in the majors in 3-4 years Hernandez from what I read is a manchild and I could see him taking a similar path of Machado and being in the majors at age 20-21. 6 years puts Howard at age 24. This is without a senior baseball sea son and no minor league season. No chance he's up in 3 years, 4 maybe. Almora came up in 4 years at age 22 and he's still trying to figure it out. I guess in a rebuild you can move a guy up a year or 2 sooner to get him going like the Cubs did with Rizzo and Baez (I'm only comparing high school guys), but I think COVID is creating problems IMO for how guys will be called up and have their service time started.
Also, I think Howard would struggle today in the MLB playing SS defensively right out of the gate. He has the ability, but guys in high school don't smoke the ball the same off the bat like guys in the pros and there may be read issues. Hence why they need lower level seasoning out of HS.
|
|
|
Post by tehmpus on Jul 13, 2020 17:59:28 GMT -5
No chance the Cubs let Rizzo walk after 2020 IMO. Also, those talking about contracts, owners will argue the new day of money we live in, but players won't allow 2020 to dictate how they get paid for the next 10 years, no chance. Maybe we see more opt outs, but IMO no way Mookie Betts signs a 150 million contract in 2020, when in 2022 with a new CBA (hopefully) and COVID either gone or having a vaccine, MLB being a cash cow again. As a player, I wouldn't and as an agent, I wouldn't let me 27-30 year old FA either, that's my opinion. Free agency has always been a free market where the highest bidder usually gets the player. I don't really see that changing in the next agreement. As usual, the market will dictate the prices paid for such free agents.
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 14, 2020 11:28:20 GMT -5
No chance the Cubs let Rizzo walk after 2020 IMO. Also, those talking about contracts, owners will argue the new day of money we live in, but players won't allow 2020 to dictate how they get paid for the next 10 years, no chance. Maybe we see more opt outs, but IMO no way Mookie Betts signs a 150 million contract in 2020, when in 2022 with a new CBA (hopefully) and COVID either gone or having a vaccine, MLB being a cash cow again. As a player, I wouldn't and as an agent, I wouldn't let me 27-30 year old FA either, that's my opinion. Free agency has always been a free market where the highest bidder usually gets the player. I don't really see that changing in the next agreement. As usual, the market will dictate the prices paid for such free agents. No doubt..... I'm just saying, the big time FA's won't accept less today because of COVID. And no, the market won't dictate how all free agents get paid. The top free agents will dictate how they get paid. It's always been that way. The market may dictate how Chatwood gets paid, but Mookie Betts will dictate how Mookie Betts gets paid and someone will pay him that 300-ish million contract.
|
|
|
Post by skokiejoe on Jul 14, 2020 11:31:57 GMT -5
Will Rizzo play in the Intra Squad game today?
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Jul 14, 2020 12:08:47 GMT -5
Free agency has always been a free market where the highest bidder usually gets the player. I don't really see that changing in the next agreement. As usual, the market will dictate the prices paid for such free agents. No doubt..... I'm just saying, the big time FA's won't accept less today because of COVID. And no, the market won't dictate how all free agents get paid. The top free agents will dictate how they get paid. It's always been that way. The market may dictate how Chatwood gets paid, but Mookie Betts will dictate how Mookie Betts gets paid and someone will pay him that 300-ish million contract. In my opinion I think Covid will adversely effect the huge contracts, I just don't know if it will be 10% or 20% less. Not only Covid, but the pending collective bargaining agreement expiring at the end of next year as well.
|
|
|
Post by rvn11 on Jul 14, 2020 13:28:13 GMT -5
No doubt..... I'm just saying, the big time FA's won't accept less today because of COVID. And no, the market won't dictate how all free agents get paid. The top free agents will dictate how they get paid. It's always been that way. The market may dictate how Chatwood gets paid, but Mookie Betts will dictate how Mookie Betts gets paid and someone will pay him that 300-ish million contract. In my opinion I think Covid will adversely effect the huge contracts, I just don't know if it will be 10% or 20% less. Not only Covid, but the pending collective bargaining agreement expiring at the end of next year as well. Who knows what will happen. What's happened recently is completely unprecedented. Even during previous economic downturns and recessions professional sports has been pretty well insulated, this is different entirely. Neither side is at fault for this happening, but if economic losses (or less profits) are actually true then I would expect implications down the line.
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Jul 14, 2020 13:50:37 GMT -5
In my opinion I think Covid will adversely effect the huge contracts, I just don't know if it will be 10% or 20% less. Not only Covid, but the pending collective bargaining agreement expiring at the end of next year as well. Who knows what will happen. What's happened recently is completely unprecedented. Even during previous economic downturns and recessions professional sports has been pretty well insulated, this is different entirely. Neither side is at fault for this happening, but if economic losses (or less profits) are actually true then I would expect implications down the line. Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money.
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 14, 2020 14:18:19 GMT -5
Who knows what will happen. What's happened recently is completely unprecedented. Even during previous economic downturns and recessions professional sports has been pretty well insulated, this is different entirely. Neither side is at fault for this happening, but if economic losses (or less profits) are actually true then I would expect implications down the line. Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. Agents and players won't just look at 2020. They'll look at 2023 and 2024 and 2025 and beyond and anticipate MLB teams will be raking in money again. If I'm and agent or player I'm still wanting the contract I wanted last year or the year before when I become an FA. If I'm an owner I'm arguing COVID has changed everything and making money like teams did last year and the year before will no longer be the norm...... this is the massive CBA fight coming after 2021 IMO Neither one will budge.
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 14, 2020 14:22:32 GMT -5
Who knows what will happen. What's happened recently is completely unprecedented. Even during previous economic downturns and recessions professional sports has been pretty well insulated, this is different entirely. Neither side is at fault for this happening, but if economic losses (or less profits) are actually true then I would expect implications down the line. Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. "In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension." You're solely coming from the owners perspective. If I'm Javy Baez, no freaking way in hell am I signing a 4 year deal at 27 years old. Really? Come on fine. "as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money." What big time FA of KB's caliber has taken a lower years and money deal? KB's caliber.
|
|
|
Post by tehmpus on Jul 14, 2020 14:24:37 GMT -5
Free agency has always been a free market where the highest bidder usually gets the player. I don't really see that changing in the next agreement. As usual, the market will dictate the prices paid for such free agents. No doubt..... I'm just saying, the big time FA's won't accept less today because of COVID. And no, the market won't dictate how all free agents get paid. The top free agents will dictate how they get paid. It's always been that way. The market may dictate how Chatwood gets paid, but Mookie Betts will dictate how Mookie Betts gets paid and someone will pay him that 300-ish million contract. I tend to agree, although I imagine that if the teams aren't willing to bid as high as Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth, that he might sit out the year, and for some reason blame the free market system. However, if he gets paid more than what he "thinks" he's worth, he'll shrug his shoulders, and just say... "Hey it's the just the market. That's what they're paying these days." The reality is that it doesn't matter what Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth. The market will dictate what kind of salary is offered. He has the choice to decline or accept, but that's what a free marketplace is.
|
|
|
Post by idontcare on Jul 14, 2020 14:26:18 GMT -5
Who knows what will happen. What's happened recently is completely unprecedented. Even during previous economic downturns and recessions professional sports has been pretty well insulated, this is different entirely. Neither side is at fault for this happening, but if economic losses (or less profits) are actually true then I would expect implications down the line. Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. On average, "stars" do not see the brunt of economic swings, it's the middle market guys. Quintana, Chatwood, basically everyone going into free agency not named Betts or Realmuto. Realmuto will be the highest paid catcher in the league, the only thing that might alter the length of his deal is the history of Posey and Mauer. Betts will make 300 million or more. Again, it's not the super stars but the mid-guys. The guys that were making 12-15 million per year are going to see their value drop almost in half. Maybe some upper talent like Rizzo will see his value drop from around 25 million to the 20 range. Bryant is a wild card though, he has the talent but has not performed number-wise for the past couple of seasons. KB is going to need a huge season and a 1/3 if he thinks he is going to sniff 30 million AAV
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Jul 14, 2020 14:33:12 GMT -5
Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. "In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension." You're solely coming from the owners perspective. If I'm Javy Baez, no freaking way in hell am I signing a 4 year deal at 27 years old. Really? Come on fine. "as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money." What big time FA of KB's caliber has taken a lower years and money deal? KB's caliber. Darvish, Harper (as compared to what they wanted in $$ & years), Machado, etc. And I believe that is going to be much more the norm moving forward. I believe you are right in that the owners will not budge & the players will "probably" not budge either. The teams have a slight edge in bargaining though because they don't have a production "age clock" like a player does so to speak..
|
|
|
Post by idontcare on Jul 14, 2020 14:35:36 GMT -5
No doubt..... I'm just saying, the big time FA's won't accept less today because of COVID. And no, the market won't dictate how all free agents get paid. The top free agents will dictate how they get paid. It's always been that way. The market may dictate how Chatwood gets paid, but Mookie Betts will dictate how Mookie Betts gets paid and someone will pay him that 300-ish million contract. I tend to agree, although I imagine that if the teams aren't willing to bid as high as Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth, that he might sit out the year, and for some reason blame the free market system. However, if he gets paid more than what he "thinks" he's worth, he'll shrug his shoulders, and just say... "Hey it's the just the market. That's what they're paying these days." The reality is that it doesn't matter what Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth. The market will dictate what kind of salary is offered. He has the choice to decline or accept, but that's what a free marketplace is. Betts would not sit out a year, he would sign a one year contract kind of like Fowler did claiming "unfinished business" but this isn't the NFL. He would gain absolutely nothing by sitting out. If I'm Betts agent and assuming the offers are impacted by the uncertainty, I'm pushing for the infamous "swell" contract. It would give his client some financial certainty and the ability to "save face" if things are looking bad. Just spitballing, but lets say 3/90 for Betts with two opt out options after that at around 27-30 million each but the team can exercise a team option of 7/245 (35 million AAV grand total of 10/335 million) making it the largest contract ever dealt out but below Trouts extension. Lets face it, no one other than Trout deserves "Mike Trout money".
|
|
|
Post by fine09 on Jul 14, 2020 14:37:50 GMT -5
Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. On average, "stars" do not see the brunt of economic swings, it's the middle market guys. Quintana, Chatwood, basically everyone going into free agency not named Betts or Realmuto. Realmuto will be the highest paid catcher in the league, the only thing that might alter the length of his deal is the history of Posey and Mauer. Betts will make 300 million or more. Again, it's not the super stars but the mid-guys. The guys that were making 12-15 million per year are going to see their value drop almost in half. Maybe some upper talent like Rizzo will see his value drop from around 25 million to the 20 range. Bryant is a wild card though, he has the talent but has not performed number-wise for the past couple of seasons. KB is going to need a huge season and a 1/3 if he thinks he is going to sniff 30 million AAV It's going to be a wild off season for sure and those mid-upper contracts you mentioned will also most likely take a hit. I just hope the ones making the 5 mil & under aren't hit hard and honestly they could do well if the pissing matches with the upper contracts stall too long because the teams might punt & sign a couple of those fall back guys for 3 years.
|
|
|
Post by Returnofstevefitz on Jul 14, 2020 14:38:59 GMT -5
Exactly why I feel it will very much have an impact on the big contracts. I think the smaller ones should be for the most part okay, but the older the player the shorter the deal. I wish that the Cubs could sign guys to extensions that somehow guarantee in KB's case to be "on average" at least one of the 10 highest paid position players in the NL. In other words sign him to a 6 year extension with a base of 20 mil. per & then call it a yearly bonus to make the avg. of the top 10 contracts. That seems fair. For Javy maybe something along the same lines but make it a 4 year extension. I very much doubt this will ever work due to salary cap requirements but it looks to be the fairest to the players and the teams as opposed to getting into another situation where guys have to take lower years & money. On average, "stars" do not see the brunt of economic swings, it's the middle market guys. Quintana, Chatwood, basically everyone going into free agency not named Betts or Realmuto. Realmuto will be the highest paid catcher in the league, the only thing that might alter the length of his deal is the history of Posey and Mauer. Betts will make 300 million or more. Again, it's not the super stars but the mid-guys. The guys that were making 12-15 million per year are going to see their value drop almost in half. Maybe some upper talent like Rizzo will see his value drop from around 25 million to the 20 range. Bryant is a wild card though, he has the talent but has not performed number-wise for the past couple of seasons. KB is going to need a huge season and a 1/3 if he thinks he is going to sniff 30 million AAV "Bryant is a wild card though, he has the talent but has not performed number-wise for the past couple of seasons." We have to stop peddling this lie..... Bryant had the 22nd highest wRC+ in baseball last season, exactly the same as Mookie Betts at 135. 2017-2019 Bryant 137 wRC+ Mookie Betts 140 wRC+..... Harper 136 wRC+. To put these in to perspective, Lindor 121 and Manny Machado 117. Bryant is ELITE, not a wild card/
|
|
|
Post by tehmpus on Jul 14, 2020 14:45:25 GMT -5
The Cubs actually have quite a few "shortstops" in the system. I put that in quotes because who knows how many of them will stay agile enough to remain at shortstop as they get older. Quickness and Agility with age seems like one of the reasons that Latinos have an advantage at that position. As for Bryant, I'm not sure if you realize, but we seem to be speaking the exact say thing but with different words. "Fair market value" essentially means that if a player hit the open market with multiple teams bidding.... that the fair market value would be the result of the winning bid. That's exactly what I mean by "max dollars". I don't really see the Cubs doing that when we've got multiple stars looking for extension paydays. I'd rather have two or three other stars than just 1 Bryant. Seems more like a Bryce Harper situation to me, day by day. In your opinion, do you think we could keep Baez, Schwarber, and possibly Rizzo for the cost of 1 Bryant? Maybe. Nice attempt to use a racism as a complement. Although your response was antagonistic, and antisocial... I'm going to respond hopefully with thought and without rancor. First, here is my personal definition of racism (2 types). 1. The opinion that your race is biologically superior to other races. General superiority complex, not specific to one bio ability. 2. The unwillingness to accept the basic culture of another race (which is learned behaviors, not biological at all). I'm guessing that your comment is more in line with this google definition: 2. The belief that different races possess distinct characteristics, abilities, or qualities, especially so as to distinguish them as inferior or superior to one another. If that's the case, then I guess I am racist for/against every single race including my own. Races by their own definition are different from each other. Some have very specific advantages that others do not. It would be foolish to pretend that such differences did not exist. My personal opinion is that everyone deserves equal opportunity, and whatever result happens. I'm not writing this to attack or get back at you for your comment, just to inform as to how I view the matter. Will Nico Hoerner be able to continue to play shortstop at the MLB level as his body ages and changes as a Cuacasion/pink guy? I doubt it, but he certainly deserves the chance and equal opportunity to try.
|
|
|
Post by idontcare on Jul 14, 2020 14:49:21 GMT -5
On average, "stars" do not see the brunt of economic swings, it's the middle market guys. Quintana, Chatwood, basically everyone going into free agency not named Betts or Realmuto. Realmuto will be the highest paid catcher in the league, the only thing that might alter the length of his deal is the history of Posey and Mauer. Betts will make 300 million or more. Again, it's not the super stars but the mid-guys. The guys that were making 12-15 million per year are going to see their value drop almost in half. Maybe some upper talent like Rizzo will see his value drop from around 25 million to the 20 range. Bryant is a wild card though, he has the talent but has not performed number-wise for the past couple of seasons. KB is going to need a huge season and a 1/3 if he thinks he is going to sniff 30 million AAV It's going to be a wild off season for sure and those mid-upper contracts you mentioned will also most likely take a hit. I just hope the ones making the 5 mil & under aren't hit hard and honestly they could do well if the pissing matches with the upper contracts stall too long because the teams might punt & sign a couple of those fall back guys for 3 years. This is why I really hope the Cubs can swing below the luxury tax in this third of a season and take advantage of some discount free agent signings (IMO). In all honesty, if Epstein/Ricketts were willing to be advantageous and go over the luxury tax next year, they could really benefit from it both via trade and in the free agent market. Think about like a bank: Ray trade player A to the D-Backs for prospect B and C, Cubs send D-Backs cash and joe blow for prospect D. In free agency, instead of having to buy Odorizzi (or someone or two similar) at 3 years 45 million as previously thought, you get them at 3 years 30 million and in a year or two you have a decent arm you can flip if you choose. By taking advantage of other teams financial struggles, if you are adventurous enough, you can set the team up with a prospect turn stile. Maybe you can snag Robbie Ray and/or Stroman at a discount.
|
|
|
Post by tehmpus on Jul 14, 2020 14:52:24 GMT -5
I tend to agree, although I imagine that if the teams aren't willing to bid as high as Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth, that he might sit out the year, and for some reason blame the free market system. However, if he gets paid more than what he "thinks" he's worth, he'll shrug his shoulders, and just say... "Hey it's the just the market. That's what they're paying these days." The reality is that it doesn't matter what Mookie Betts "thinks" he's worth. The market will dictate what kind of salary is offered. He has the choice to decline or accept, but that's what a free marketplace is. Betts would not sit out a year, he would sign a one year contract kind of like Fowler did claiming "unfinished business" but this isn't the NFL. He would gain absolutely nothing by sitting out. If I'm Betts agent and assuming the offers are impacted by the uncertainty, I'm pushing for the infamous "swell" contract. It would give his client some financial certainty and the ability to "save face" if things are looking bad. Just spitballing, but lets say 3/90 for Betts with two opt out options after that at around 27-30 million each but the team can exercise a team option of 7/245 (35 million AAV grand total of 10/335 million) making it the largest contract ever dealt out but below Trouts extension. Lets face it, no one other than Trout deserves "Mike Trout money". I tend to agree with your opinion on contract values. You should get paid fairly closely to your production compared to your peers. Unfortunately that's not how the free market system works sometimes. Guys like Bryce Harper or even Jason Heyward get contracts that they really haven't earned in terms of production. In the NFL, the 8th best quarterback in Dak Prescott is asking for the 2nd largest QB contract. Sometimes supply and demand change and alter prices so that a player seems overpaid or underpaid. That's just the market. It can go up and it can go down. If players want to be free agents, they have to acknowledge that.
|
|