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Post by TheChico on Feb 27, 2024 13:24:37 GMT -5
Not sure about this move. Guess we'll prolly see more of Smyly in the bull pen. Same, giving up a young lefty bullpen arm that could help this year is odd.
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Post by cfin on Feb 27, 2024 13:46:56 GMT -5
Kind of a head scratcher that they would move a lefty reliever to create roster space.
They've got a plethora of right-handed relievers that they could trade from. Not to mention a glut of position players that could be moved.
Having said that, I don't think they did terrible with this trade. Thompson could turn out to be something. But they couldn't get a bite on anyone else?
Probably means that Smyly is not moveable.
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Post by kfidd on Feb 27, 2024 13:55:27 GMT -5
Kind of a head scratcher that they would move a lefty reliever to create roster space. They've got a plethora of right-handed relievers that they could trade from. Not to mention a glut of position players that could be moved. Having said that, I don't think they did terrible with this trade. Thompson could turn out to be something. But they couldn't get a bite on anyone else? Probably means that Smyly is not moveable. That’s how I read this too. Smyly seems like the obvious one you’d want to move if you could. That ~10.5m or whatever salary this year might be too much for any team to bite. It’s doubtful Horn is someone we’ll be kicking ourselves over losing and gotta trust the scouting on Thompson, maybe they see something there. But it’s the giving up the lefty part that’s a bit of a head scratcher. Kind of seems like the Cubs these last two seasons hate lefty relievers or something.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Feb 27, 2024 14:16:10 GMT -5
I asked the evil skynet ai to make a baseball joke about Horn. Not so funny.
Why did Horn carry a baseball glove to the bakery? Because he wanted to catch the doughnuts!
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Post by fine09 on Feb 27, 2024 14:38:41 GMT -5
Not sure about this move. Guess we'll prolly see more of Smyly in the bull pen. Same, giving up a young lefty bullpen arm that could help this year is odd. He could have helped but his BB % is completely unsustainable so he’s got quite a bit of work to do to play on a good club.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 27, 2024 17:14:24 GMT -5
The Cubs could essentially already be over the luxury tax if Bellinger opts out after this season.
I keep seeing different numbers but from a Cubs insider story I'm reading they are at 234.2 , so 2.8 under and Bellingers current luxury tax hit is 26.67 million. If he opts out the luxury tax hit for 2024 changes to 30 million because it is the average AAV of the years he plats here, so 3.33 more which puts them half a million over.
So look for them to chip away and possibly shed somebody like Wisdom and his 2.75 , or Madrigal 1.8 as a safety net, Ideally Smyly would free up the most .
Or they might (I doubt it) just accept now that they will be over it for this season and add somebody else.
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Post by bryzzobrist on Feb 27, 2024 17:16:37 GMT -5
The Cubs could essentially already be over the luxury tax if Bellinger opts out after this season. I keep seeing different numbers but from a Cubs insider story I'm reading they are at 234.2 , so 2.8 under and Bellingers current luxury tax hit is 26.67 million. If he opts out the luxury tax hit for 2024 changes to 30 million because it is the average AAV of the years he plats here, so 3.33 more which puts them half a million over. So look for them to chip away and possibly shed somebody like Wisdom and his 2.75 , or Madrigal 1.8 as a safety net, Ideally Smyly would free up the most . Or they might (I doubt it) just accept now that they will be over it for this season and add somebody else. If we're not going over next season and can reset, doesn't seem so bad.
If we sell at deadline, that's probably problem solved. If we're already going over, maybe we'll be inclined to spend at deadline.
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Post by fine09 on Feb 28, 2024 9:08:37 GMT -5
The Cubs could essentially already be over the luxury tax if Bellinger opts out after this season. I keep seeing different numbers but from a Cubs insider story I'm reading they are at 234.2 , so 2.8 under and Bellingers current luxury tax hit is 26.67 million. If he opts out the luxury tax hit for 2024 changes to 30 million because it is the average AAV of the years he plats here, so 3.33 more which puts them half a million over. So look for them to chip away and possibly shed somebody like Wisdom and his 2.75 , or Madrigal 1.8 as a safety net, Ideally Smyly would free up the most . Or they might (I doubt it) just accept now that they will be over it for this season and add somebody else. Informative article on MLBTRADERUMORS regarding the Cubs bullpen basically stating that they really need a couple of arms that have options so that they can send them down for fresh arms when needed. Otherwise they can never call up fresh arms without exposing some to waivers every time they do. Basically takes them out of going after any big name BP guys unless they swing a trade with a team.
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Post by cfin on Feb 28, 2024 9:24:41 GMT -5
Informative article on MLBTRADERUMORS regarding the Cubs bullpen basically stating that they really need a couple of arms that have options so that they can send them down for fresh arms when needed. Otherwise they can never call up fresh arms without exposing some to waivers every time they do. Basically takes them out of going after any big name BP guys unless they swing a trade with a team. I read that, but one thing they don't really mention is the ability to just straight cut guys - like Leiter Jr, Merryweather, Almonte - which is something I think the front office has to be willing to do if they want to win. Bullpens are just too volatile to expect past performance to equal present day performance. I'm not against signing guys for the bullpen, but you have to be willing to cut them if they aren't performing so you can make room for someone else that is performing. Nerris's contract is probably uncuttable. Thankfully it's only for 1 year. We all want to believe that Nerris will perform like he has in the past, but that's no guarantee. We all want to believe that Leiter Jr. and Merryweather will perform like they did last year, but that's no guarantee. Cutting them doesn't help your payroll situation because you're still going to be on the hook for their salary. But is the game about winning or saving money?
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Post by Mike on Feb 28, 2024 9:28:47 GMT -5
0 Options:
01. RP Almonte 02. CL Alzolay 03. SP Hendricks 04. RP Leiter, Jr 05. RP Merryweather 06. SU Neris 07. LR Smyly (L) 08. SP Steele (L) 09. SP Taillon
Options, but, really? 10. SP Imanaga (L) ---------------------
Last option year 11. LR K Thompson ----------------
Two Option Years ---------------- 12. LR Assad 13. RP Cuas 14. LR Kilian 15. RP Little (L) 16. RP Palencia 17. LR Wesneski 18. SP Wicks (L) -----------------
Three Option Years 19. RP Arias 20. SP Brown 21. SP Hodge
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Post by fine09 on Feb 28, 2024 9:29:03 GMT -5
Informative article on MLBTRADERUMORS regarding the Cubs bullpen basically stating that they really need a couple of arms that have options so that they can send them down for fresh arms when needed. Otherwise they can never call up fresh arms without exposing some to waivers every time they do. Basically takes them out of going after any big name BP guys unless they swing a trade with a team. I read that, but one thing they don't really mention is the ability to just straight cut guys - like Leiter Jr, Merryweather, Almonte - which is something I think the front office has to be willing to do if they want to win. Bullpens are just too volatile to expect past performance to equal present day performance. I'm not against signing guys for the bullpen, but you have to be willing to cut them if they aren't performing so you can make room for someone else that is performing. Nerris's contract is probably uncuttable. Thankfully it's only for 1 year. We all want to believe that Nerris will perform like he has in the past, but that's no guarantee. We all want to believe that Leiter Jr. and Merryweather will perform like they did last year, but that's no guarantee. Cutting them doesn't help your payroll situation because you're still going to be on the hook for their salary. But is the game about winning or saving money? Most of the guys you mentioned, if they were made available in trades would have interest so hopefully that would happen over just cutting them..
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Post by TheChico on Feb 28, 2024 9:35:47 GMT -5
Informative article on MLBTRADERUMORS regarding the Cubs bullpen basically stating that they really need a couple of arms that have options so that they can send them down for fresh arms when needed. Otherwise they can never call up fresh arms without exposing some to waivers every time they do. Basically takes them out of going after any big name BP guys unless they swing a trade with a team. I read that, but one thing they don't really mention is the ability to just straight cut guys - like Leiter Jr, Merryweather, Almonte - which is something I think the front office has to be willing to do if they want to win. Bullpens are just too volatile to expect past performance to equal present day performance. I'm not against signing guys for the bullpen, but you have to be willing to cut them if they aren't performing so you can make room for someone else that is performing. Nerris's contract is probably uncuttable. Thankfully it's only for 1 year. We all want to believe that Nerris will perform like he has in the past, but that's no guarantee. We all want to believe that Leiter Jr. and Merryweather will perform like they did last year, but that's no guarantee. Cutting them doesn't help your payroll situation because you're still going to be on the hook for their salary. But is the game about winning or saving money? Yep!! Somebody is going to underperform or get injured it always happens and always will. That is why I never worry about blocking prospects and having too many arms, it always works itself out.
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Post by cfin on Feb 28, 2024 9:52:09 GMT -5
I read that, but one thing they don't really mention is the ability to just straight cut guys - like Leiter Jr, Merryweather, Almonte - which is something I think the front office has to be willing to do if they want to win. Bullpens are just too volatile to expect past performance to equal present day performance. I'm not against signing guys for the bullpen, but you have to be willing to cut them if they aren't performing so you can make room for someone else that is performing. Nerris's contract is probably uncuttable. Thankfully it's only for 1 year. We all want to believe that Nerris will perform like he has in the past, but that's no guarantee. We all want to believe that Leiter Jr. and Merryweather will perform like they did last year, but that's no guarantee. Cutting them doesn't help your payroll situation because you're still going to be on the hook for their salary. But is the game about winning or saving money? Most of the guys you mentioned, if they were made available in trades would have interest do hopefully that would happen over just cutting them.. Not if they're under performing.
Maybe right now they do... and I really wouldn't be opposed to trading one of them for an equally last-year performing player that is optionable... but I don't think any team is going to do that, for the exact reasons that the article outlines.
If Merryweather comes out of the gate with 10 appearances, 12 innings, 23 walks, and a 14.00 ERA... he's not tradeable. You cut him, eat his salary, and call up someone that can maybe perform.
How many under performing arms can you hide in your bullpen?
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Post by Mike on Feb 28, 2024 9:59:04 GMT -5
*Leiter, Jr
fixed it for you
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Post by fine09 on Feb 28, 2024 10:13:07 GMT -5
Most of the guys you mentioned, if they were made available in trades would have interest do hopefully that would happen over just cutting them.. Not if they're under performing.
Maybe right now they do... and I really wouldn't be opposed to trading one of them for an equally last-year performing player that is optionable... but I don't think any team is going to do that, for the exact reasons that the article outlines.
If Merryweather comes out of the gate with 10 appearances, 12 innings, 23 walks, and a 14.00 ERA... he's not tradeable. You cut him, eat his salary, and call up someone that can maybe perform.
How many under performing arms can you hide in your bullpen?
If they are just plain terrible then I agree completely but at times most of those guys last year were outstanding so I'm just hoping for quite a bit of the same..
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Post by cfin on Feb 28, 2024 10:32:53 GMT -5
Not if they're under performing.
Maybe right now they do... and I really wouldn't be opposed to trading one of them for an equally last-year performing player that is optionable... but I don't think any team is going to do that, for the exact reasons that the article outlines.
If Merryweather comes out of the gate with 10 appearances, 12 innings, 23 walks, and a 14.00 ERA... he's not tradeable. You cut him, eat his salary, and call up someone that can maybe perform.
How many under performing arms can you hide in your bullpen?
If they are just plain terrible then I agree completely but at times most of those guys last year were outstanding so I'm just hoping for quite a bit of the same.. I would really be shocked if all of Leiter Jr., Merryweather, and Alzolay all perform the same this year as they did last year. The law of averages just tells you that it's likely at least one of them will dip in performance.
I might also throw Nerris in there, but he does have a track record and at his salary he's not going to be cut anyway.
Almonte is kind of meh anyway... but the volatile nature of bullpens means that he could also shine this year.
I don't have an issue with being optimistic about these bullpen arms, I just would encourage to sprinkle a little bit of realistic in there as well. And since there's no way to know which guy might under perform, making a guess and trading the wrong one could be a disadvantage. I just think you should be willing to cut any of those guys should they be under performing and taking up valuable bullpen space. You probably have a longer leash with Alzolay than the others because of youth. But there comes a point to where youth is no longer a reason to keep under performance around.
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Post by kfidd on Feb 28, 2024 10:47:26 GMT -5
If they are just plain terrible then I agree completely but at times most of those guys last year were outstanding so I'm just hoping for quite a bit of the same.. I would really be shocked if all of Leiter Jr., Merryweather, and Alzolay all perform the same this year as they did last year. The law of averages just tells you that it's likely at least one of them will dip in performance.
I might also throw Nerris in there, but he does have a track record and at his salary he's not going to be cut anyway.
Almonte is kind of meh anyway... but the volatile nature of bullpens means that he could also shine this year.
I don't have an issue with being optimistic about these bullpen arms, I just would encourage to sprinkle a little bit of realistic in there as well. And since there's no way to know which guy might under perform, making a guess and trading the wrong one could be a disadvantage. I just think you should be willing to cut any of those guys should they be under performing and taking up valuable bullpen space. You probably have a longer leash with Alzolay than the others because of youth. But there comes a point to where youth is no longer a reason to keep under performance around.
This just further emphasizes how uninspiring our rotation is to me. You are correct, when talking relievers past performance is never indicative of future success. There certainly are guys that beat that mantra and provide stability year in and year out. Outside of Nerris I don’t think we have a single reliever that fits that description and instead have a lot of youth and potential back there. That’s not a bad thing but it definitely is a very risky bullpen that can easily be an unreliable group next year. Hopefully the Counsel effect is real and impactful. But a stronger and more stable bullpen would be a great boon for our uninspiring rotation group, or vice versa. Instead we have a pitching staff as a whole that just lacks a lot of certainty. Nobody knows what to expect from Taillon or Imanaga. Our closer, like many of our relievers, has great stuff but limited experience in his role. I keep reading about the tremendous depth we have on the pitching staff and that is certainly a good thing, but when you are lacking proven commodities it means a lot less and sets up situations like we had last year at first base (good depth to start the year with Mancini, Hosmer, and Mervis yet nobody worked out in even the slightest fashion). I really wish they had secured a better combination of proven talent while keeping some pathways open for the necessary youth contributions that we need to happen. Instead we have a roster that many are excited about but only looks competitive when viewed through the most optimistic of lenses. Your comment about sprinkling in some realism as fans should be bolded and underlined in some fancy, attention grabbing font.
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Post by batman66 on Feb 28, 2024 11:27:21 GMT -5
Most of the guys you mentioned, if they were made available in trades would have interest do hopefully that would happen over just cutting them.. Not if they're under performing.
Maybe right now they do... and I really wouldn't be opposed to trading one of them for an equally last-year performing player that is optionable... but I don't think any team is going to do that, for the exact reasons that the article outlines.
If Merryweather comes out of the gate with 10 appearances, 12 innings, 23 walks, and a 14.00 ERA... he's not tradeable. You cut him, eat his salary, and call up someone that can maybe perform.
How many under performing arms can you hide in your bullpen?
A guy like Merryweather isn't likely going to be a quick easy cut if he struggles out of the gate. With his arm and stuff I'm sure if they DFA him some team would try to strike a deal with the Cubs before he hits release waivers. You won't get much but you will probably get something and I doubt the Cubs would let him go that quickly. He struggled last season out of the gate and we all were calling for his head, they stuck with him and he became a very solid piece of the pen. I'm not worried about the pen arms having no options , they'll figure it out when the time comes.
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Post by Drav on Feb 29, 2024 21:22:58 GMT -5
If anyone wants to hear a joke Some random website wrote an article about Kerry Miller of Bleacher report predicting the Cubs land Shane Beiber at the trade deadline. In the article they mention that A Mike Tauchman for Bieber trade could work. One for one. Even at the deadline Cleveland would end up laughing at Hawkins and then hang up on him for mention that idea of a trade. I've never heard of this website at all before and don't see myself ever really going back. heavy.com/sports/mlb/chicago-cubs/cleveland-guardians-shane-bieber-trade-rumor/
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Post by batman66 on Mar 1, 2024 7:32:10 GMT -5
If anyone wants to hear a joke Some random website wrote an article about Kerry Miller of Bleacher report predicting the Cubs land Shane Beiber at the trade deadline. In the article they mention that A Mike Tauchman for Bieber trade could work. One for one. Even at the deadline Cleveland would end up laughing at Hawkins and then hang up on him for mention that idea of a trade. I've never heard of this website at all before and don't see myself ever really going back. heavy.com/sports/mlb/chicago-cubs/cleveland-guardians-shane-bieber-trade-rumor/It gets better though , you missed the punchline , after saying Tauchman for Bieber they add this <<If the Guardians are seeking to flip their veterans with an eye to the future, they may include another player along with Bieber and acquire a prospect like Caissie or Alcántara, two top-five members of the Cubs’ farm system from 2023>> So Tauchman is good enough to land Bieber , but if they include another random ass player then thats good enough to land Caissie or Alcantara.
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